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Btcusdtanalysis

BTC/USD Breakdown Alert — MA Cross & MACD Flash Warning!💰 BTC/USD — “BITCOIN vs U.S. DOLLAR” | Crypto Market Capital Flow Blueprint (Swing Trade) 🧭 Market Overview The king of crypto 👑, Bitcoin, is showing signs of fatigue at the top. After a solid bull sprint, we’re spotting bearish confirmation on multiple signals — a clean moving average breakout and a MACD divergence to the downside. Looks like the market’s whispering, “It’s time for a cool-down, mate.” 😏 🎯 Trade Plan (Swing Setup) Plan: ✅ Bearish plan confirmed — waiting for continuation pressure below structure zones. Entry Strategy (Thief Layer Method 🕵️‍♂️): Using layered limit sell orders — a signature “Thief Strategy” style of scaling in with patience, precision, and a bit of chaos theory. Sell Limit Layers: 110,000 💸 → 108,000 💸 → 106,000 💸 (You can expand the layer grid as per your risk model.) Stop Loss: 112,000 — positioned above the previous Higher High (HH) structure. 📝 Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), I’m not recommending you to stick to my SL. Manage risk your way — you make money, you take money. 💼 Target: 98,000 — based on strong support, oversold confluence, and a potential liquidity trap zone below. 📝 Note: Same rule — take profits where it makes sense for you. The trap is the escape; don’t overstay the party. 🎭 🔍 Technical Confluence Highlights 📉 MA Breakout: Bears gaining control after crossover rejection. 📊 MACD Divergence: Weak momentum confirmed — watch histogram fade. Structure Check: Market respecting descending trendline — sellers defending upper zone. 🧩 Momentum Flow: Smart money possibly rotating out of BTC into defensive assets. 🌍 Correlated Pairs to Watch Keep an eye on these related assets for directional cues and correlation strength: BITSTAMP:ETHUSD (Ethereum) — often mirrors BTC’s moves with higher beta. TVC:DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) — rising DXY can pressure BTC. PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 (NASDAQ 100) — tech sentiment affects BTC risk appetite. CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) — watch if altcoins start outperforming. ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #BTCUSD #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #SwingTrade #TechnicalAnalysis #ThiefStrategy #BearishSetup #CryptoTrading #MarketFlow #LayeredEntries #SmartMoney #TradingView #EditorPickCandidate #BTCAnalysis
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by The-Thief
3
BTCUSDT – Retesting Key Levels After Resistance RejectionAs expected, BTC successfully closed above the $100K mark on the daily timeframe and moved up to retest the major resistance zone around $107,500. However, the price faced a clear rejection from this level, confirming that it remains a strong resistance area which Bitcoin must break to resume its upward momentum toward $110K–$112K. Currently, BTC is showing signs of a potential pullback toward the Daily Order Block (OB) area near $103K–$101K. This zone will be crucial to watch — if the price reacts positively and rebounds, it could signal another push to retest the $107K resistance. On the other hand, a breakdown below this OB may open the door for a deeper retracement toward the $100K zone or even lower, possibly targeting the liquidity around $98K. For now, BTC remains in a short-term corrective phase within a larger bullish structure. The reaction from the Daily OB zone will likely determine the next major move.
by ijaz_crypto
BTC Poised for Breakout or Pullback?BINANCE:BTCUSDT Poised for Breakout or Pullback? BTC's current trend remains bullish on the 1H chart, firmly holding the key support at ~101.5k amid recent volatility. We're testing resistance around 106.6k— a clean breakout here could spark a rally to 110k. However, watch for a deeper dip to 102k if volume fades and we slip below support. Key indicators: RSI hovering near 60 (room to run), rising 50MA, and MACD bullish crossover. Stay tuned! 🚀📈 #BTC #CryptoTrading #AltcoinPioneers
by AltcoinPiooners
BTC/USD Bullish Pennant – Breakout Entry Setup✅ BTC/USD Pennant Breakout – Technical Analysis Chart Breakdown The chart shows Bitcoin forming a bullish pennant pattern on the 45-min timeframe. A pennant typically forms after a strong impulsive move (pole), followed by price compression between: Descending trendline (upper) Ascending/flat trendline (lower) This usually signals continuation in the direction of the previous trend, which in this case is upward. Key Levels Entry Zone: Just above the pennant resistance (breakout zone). Stop-Loss: Below the pennant support — good risk management. Target: Projected by measuring the previous impulse (the pennant pole) and extending it upward. Market Signals ✔ Price is squeezing near the apex — breakout imminent. ✔ Buyers appear to be defending the lower trendline. ✔ If price breaks and closes above resistance, upside continuation becomes likely. ✘ But if price rejects and falls below support, the setup invalidates. Bias Bullish Continuation – If breakout occurs with strong volume. ✅ Title Suggestion “BTC/USD Bullish Pennant – Breakout Setup Forming”
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by DrForexPhd
BTC 4H Bullish setupBitcoin is showing early signs of a potential reversal after testing key support levels within the descending channel. Price action is consolidating around $102.2K, with several bullish confluences hinting at a possible bounce. 🔍 Bullish Confluences Channel Support Retest – Price is reacting off the lower boundary of the descending channel, historically a bounce zone. Volatility Band Support – Candles are forming near the green lower band, signaling potential exhaustion of selling pressure. Momentum Divergence Potential – Market structure suggests a possible bullish divergence forming, supporting a short-term recovery move. 🎯 Fibonacci Targets 38.2%: $103,850 61.8%: $104,308 100%: $106,286 A clean break above $103.8K could confirm bullish momentum and open room toward the $106K resistance zone.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by VisionaryInsights
BTCUSD: Stabilize above 105,000BTC rose to break through and stabilizing above 105,000 today, surpassing last week's short-term resistance level. Next, we will focus on whether the key resistance level at 108,000 can be broken. We predict that Bitcoin's movement today will fluctuate within the range of 104,000-108,000. If it can sustain a breakthrough above 108,000, we expect an upward trend to emerge this week. Buy 103,000 - 103,500 SL 102,500 TP 104,500 - 105,000 - 105,500 Sell 105,500 - 106,000 SL 106,500 TP 104,500 - 104,000 - 103,500
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by KingArthur_
BTCUSDT(BITCOIN): Bitcoin is bearish for now at least! Bitcoin is in distribution phase if we using the smart money concept, that is why we think price is at the final point before it drop faster. There will be mixed views regarding the bitcoin, but this is our personal view and which is more likely view compare to buying. Please use accurate risk management while trading bitcoin. This setup may take time to get it completed, and we will keep you guys updated. Good luck and trade safe! Team Setupsfx_
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Setupsfx_
28
Bitcoin: The Epic Golden Bull RunYes, I get it. Everyone thinks we're already in a bear market. Hope is lost. Life-changing money evaporated. The October crash saw $19 billion in forced liquidations —the largest in crypto history. Some tragically took their own lives. No one wants false hope right now. But I don't think the bull market is over. And here's why—backed by data, not hopium. ──────────────────────────────────── ⚠️ DISCLAIMER This post is strictly my personal beliefs and thoughts, and should NOT be construed as financial advice, nor does it mean the market must go this way. This will be a long read but would be worth the time. Sit tight and grab a beer 🍻 ──────────────────────────────────── Context: Where I Stood in September First, I want to share that as of the last week of September, I gave a detailed breakdown of the market and shared why I thought the bull market was over, which I tagged "The Great Convergence." Read below if you missed that:👉 In that post, I worked with the IG:BITCOIN halving cycle theory (along with TVC:SPX and TVC:GOLD ), which for over a decade has been the most efficient, accurate, and proven method for timing IG:BITCOIN rallies, tops, and bottoms. By halving theory, the bull market should have ended by August/September 2025. What Actually Happened: Early October : IG:BITCOIN briefly touched a new ATH near $126,296 October 1st : US government shutdown begins, draining $700B+ from markets via TGA October 10th : Trump's 100% China tariff threat triggers $19.13B liquidation cascade in 24 hours IG:BITCOIN crashed from $126K to below $104K—an 18% drop in days October became the first "red October" since 2018 1.6 million traders liquidated—20x larger than COVID crash, 12x larger than FTX November 8th (Today) : Market hovering around $100-102K in extreme fear (Fear & Greed Index: 21) ──────────────────────────────────── 🔍 What's Different About This Current Cycle Here's what stands out as fundamentally different: 1️⃣ The Recent CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Crypto Liquidation Wasn't Capitulation—It Was Infrastructure Cleansing This wasn't profit-taking or true capitulation. The numbers tell the story: $19.13 billion in forced liquidations in 24 hours 1.6 million traders wiped out 20x bigger than the March 2020 COVID crash ($1.2B) 12x bigger than the FTX collapse ($1.6B) This was leverage-driven, not sentiment-driven. The weak hands and overleveraged positions got flushed out. Meanwhile, strong hands (institutions, whales) continued accumulating through the chaos. Key Difference : In true bear market capitulations, holders capitulate. In October, leveraged speculators capitulated while spot holders held firm . ──────────────────────────────────── 2️⃣ The Liquidity Vacuum Is Temporary (This Is Critical) Here's what most people are missing about October: The crash wasn't just about tariffs—it was about a government-induced liquidity crisis . What Happened: US government shutdown began October 1st Treasury General Account (TGA) balance swelled from $800B to over $1 trillion in just 20 days That's $200+ billion drained from the financial system Standing Repo Facility (SRF) usage hit $50.35 billion on October 31—highest since the pandemic crisis in March 2020 This indicated severe dollar shortage in the system Why This Matters: COINBASE:BTCUSD correlation with dollar liquidity remains near 0.85 When the government shutdown ends and resumes spending, that liquidity floods back BitMEX analysts project a strong relief rally when hundreds of billions are injected back This isn't a structural bear market—it's a temporary liquidity vacuum. ──────────────────────────────────── 3️⃣ Institutional Holders Aren't Selling Like Retail Did in Past Cycles Whale Accumulation Data: 1,455 wallets now hold over 1,000 BTC UTXO Age Distribution shows a 5% spike in "Over 8 Years" buckets Long-term holders are doubling down , not distributing Whale Originating Transaction Count: Miner Behavior: Post-halving, miners anticipated higher prices and chose to hold rather than sell immediately While smaller miners face profitability pressure, institutional holders are not showing distribution patterns ETF Context: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.2B+ in outflows during the crash week October 16 alone: $536 million in panic redemptions BlackRock's NASDAQ:IBIT : $268.6M out | ARK's ARKB: $275.2M out BUT HERE'S THE KEY : These were temporary panic outflows, not structural distribution. Year-to-date, institutional accumulation has been relentless . The October outflows represent weak hands being shaken out—exactly what you'd expect in a mid-cycle correction, not a cycle top. ──────────────────────────────────── 4️⃣ No FOMO. No FUD. No Euphoria. (Strongest Psychological Indicators) Let's compare sentiment metrics: Current Sentiment: Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 21-25 (Extreme Fear) as of November 7-8 BINANCE:BTCUSD RSI as at Oct ATH: ~60 (far below euphoric 75+ levels) Market Mood: Despair, capitulation narrative, "bear market confirmed" True Bull Market Top Sentiment (for comparison): Fear & Greed Index: 80-95 (Extreme Greed) RSI: 75-85 (overbought for weeks) Market Mood: "Bitcoin to $500K," taxi drivers asking about crypto, covers of mainstream magazines We haven't even come close to euphoria. The 2024 meme coin craze was a micro-cycle within the broader structure—too early and too isolated to be considered true market-wide euphoria. ──────────────────────────────────── 5️⃣ The CHART Does Not Reflect a Bull Market Yet This is where I'll let the charts speak. First, Look at Gold's Bull Market: 👉 Clean. Parabolic. Obvious. No second-guessing needed. Now Look at Bitcoin: 👉 Ask Yourself Honestly: Does this chart scream "parabolic bull market"? Does the recent ATH look like a blow-off top? Does the volume profile suggest distribution? If you can't answer YES with conviction, then the answer is NO. A Simple Psychology Principle I Use: If I can't say YES without doubting my decision, then the answer is NO. ──────────────────────────────────── 6️⃣ Cycle Coincided with AI Tech Mania and CAPITALCOM:GOLD Super Rally This cycle is unique because capital had competing destinations: AI Tech Mania : Nvidia, AI stocks absorbed massive capital flows CAPITALCOM:GOLD Super Rally : TVC:GOLD broke out to all-time highs, attracting safe-haven capital Risk-On Delay : BITFINEX:BTCUSD became less attractive as capital rotated elsewhere This delayed the typical IG:BITCOIN Bitcoin cycle dynamics—it didn't end them. ──────────────────────────────────── 🧠 My Contrarian Thesis While this might sound crazy, I believe we are still in the OPTIMISM phase of this rally. Unlike previous cycles, I believe we will experience an extended rally lasting through Q1/Q2 2026. My Thesis is NOT Based On: ❌ Traditional Halving Cycle Theory — I believe that timeline will be extended and recalibrated this time ❌ Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Alone — Though I lean toward its supply dynamics My Thesis IS Based On: ✅ Pure naked price action and structure ✅ Volume profile analysis showing accumulation ✅ Market structure and RSI positioning ✅ Government liquidity mechanics and TGA dynamics ✅ Institutional vs retail behavior divergence ✅ Psychological playbook of market cycles ──────────────────────────────────── 🔄 Why the Halving Cycle Is Extended, Not Broken Many are saying "the 4-year cycle is dead." I disagree. It's not broken—it's being distorted and extended by new factors: The ETF Factor Changed Everything: Traditional Halving Cycle: Post-halving scarcity → slow accumulation → parabolic phase ~500-550 days later 2024-2025 Cycle: January 2024: Spot OANDA:BTCUSD ETFs approved ETFs brought forward typical post-halving demand 12 months early This created an early rally into March 2024, then consolidation October 2025: Temporary ETF panic outflows (weak hands exit) Framework : The cycle hasn't ended—it's been stretched across a longer timeframe Historical Context: Historically, most significant price appreciation occurred between days ~500-550 post-halving For the April 2024 halving, that window ends Q3 2025 ... but if we factor in the time lag and the now running ~2-Months Govt shutdown delay then that window could be adjusted to Q3 2025 - Q1 2026 See it like a football match, time delay during match is added as extra time, it doesn't mean the 90min rule is broken simply means wasted time must be accounted for. We're literally in the window right now Expert Analysis: Leading analysts suggest the era of the strict 4-year cycle is evolving Market maturity, institutional concentration, and dampened volatility mean the traditional rhythm is being replaced by liquidity-sensitive, macro-correlated behavior The cycle isn't gone—it's adapting to a new market structure ──────────────────────────────────── 📈 The Current Chart Breakdown Look at the Chart Again: 👉 Four Critical Questions: 1. Does this move look like a completed rally? → No. It looks like mid-cycle consolidation with a violent shakeout. 2. Does the recent ATH reflect a distribution top? → No. Volume and RSI don't support distribution behavior. The ATH was a brief spike , not a prolonged distribution phase. 3. What does the volume profile show? → Accumulation zone. Heavy volume during the $95K-$110K range indicates re-accumulation, not distribution. 4. What is the RSI telling us? → Sitting on base support —the same level that triggered every prior bull market explosion in this cycle. Conclusion: If both price action and volume show accumulation rather than distribution, we're in a re-accumulation phase, not a post-rally distribution phase. ──────────────────────────────────── 🎯 The Macro Setup CRYPTOCAP:BTC is Positioned Perfectly: ✅ Inside the macro demand zone that has held since late 2023 ✅ On the ascending channel that guided every major leg of this cycle ✅ Channel from 2023 is intact and pointing into six-figure territory ✅ Weekly demand zone holding with precision — re-accumulation, not distribution ✅ Weekly RSI on base support — same level that triggered every bull explosion ✅ Nothing is broken. Nothing is topping. This is positioning, not exhaustion. ──────────────────────────────────── I shared this analysis yesterday, you can read the full or the summarized version below: 📅 Cycle Structure: The 14-15 Week Expansion Pattern Every expansion leg in this cycle has followed a pattern: 14-15 weeks of expansion Followed by 16-18 weeks of correction Where Are We Now? End of the correction window Beginning of the next expansion phase Historical Precedent: If we follow 2017's pattern (euphoric Nov-Dec Rally) where CRYPTOCAP:BTC gained +200% in price between Nov 17 -Dec 17 from 5.6k+ to 19.6k+, we could see an explosive acceleration starting from Next week Mid-November - December 2025 With institutional adoption and extended liquidity cycles, this could push into Q1 2026 This would make the current cycle the longest on record , not the end of one ──────────────────────────────────── 🔥 What the Chart Is Screaming Key Technical Signals: Ascending Channel Intact — Channel from late 2023 still pointing to six figures Demand Zone Holding — Weekly demand zone defended with precision Breakout Level Clear — $126K break = ignition point for macro acceleration RSI Base Support — Weekly RSI at the exact level that preceded every rally Projection Untouched — Path to $150K–$170K remains structurally intact ──────────────────────────────────── 🚀 Two Scenarios Moving Forward Scenario 1: Direct Blast-Off ⚡ Demand zone holds firm here Government shutdown ends → liquidity snap-back $126K breaks decisively within weeks New ATH confirmed Vertical acceleration into $150K–$170K by December 2025 Extended rally continues through Q1 2026 Scenario 2: One Final Manipulation Flush 🌊 Wick below demand zone (liquidity grab to $95K-$98K) Mid-channel tap for final shakeout Violent V-shaped recovery and reclaim Same ultimate target: $160K–$170K Timeline delayed by 4-8 weeks but destination unchanged Both scenarios end at the same place. The path differs, but the structure remains intact. ──────────────────────────────────── ❌ The Only Invalidation I will abandon this thesis if: Primary Invalidation: Weekly close below the ascending channel (currently ~$80K) Secondary Warning Signals: TGA doesn't release liquidity when government reopens Institutional ETF outflows continue for 2+ consecutive months Fear & Greed Index stays below 30 through EOY 2025 IG:BITCOIN fails to reclaim $110K by end of November 2025 Weekly RSI breaks below 40 and stays there Until these conditions are met, the bull thesis remains structurally intact. ──────────────────────────────────── 💡 The Liquidity Snap-Back Thesis Here's the mechanism most traders are missing: How Government Shutdowns Affect Crypto: Phase 1: Shutdown (October 1 - Present) Government stops spending TGA balance grows ($800B → $1T+) Liquidity drained from system Dollar shortage (SRF at $50B+) Risk assets crash Phase 2: Reopening (Coming Soon) Government resumes spending TGA balance depletes back down $200B+ floods back into system Dollar shortage resolved Risk assets rally violently BINANCE:BTCUSD 0.85 correlation with dollar liquidity means: When liquidity drains → Bitcoin falls When liquidity returns → Bitcoin rips This isn't speculation—it's mechanical. The October crash was a liquidity event, not a sentiment event. When that liquidity returns, CRYPTOCAP:BTC will respond proportionally. ──────────────────────────────────── 📊 Why October's Liquidation Was Different From Bear Markets Let's compare major crypto crashes: The Critical Difference: Previous crashes: Spot holders capitulated October 2025: Spot holders accumulated while leveraged traders got wiped out This is cleansing, not capitulation. ──────────────────────────────────── 🎨 Compare: What a Real Bull Market Top Looks Like Signs of a Cycle Top We DON'T Have: ❌ Fear & Greed Index at 90+ for weeks ❌ RSI pinned above 75 ❌ Parabolic vertical price action ❌ "Bitcoin is going to $1 million" headlines everywhere ❌ Taxi drivers and hairdressers asking about crypto ❌ Massive miner selling at highs ❌ Whales distributing to retail ❌ Everyone you know is suddenly a crypto expert ❌ Cover stories on TIME, Forbes, Bloomberg ❌ New ATHs multiple weeks in a row Signs of Mid-Cycle Correction We DO Have: ✅ Fear & Greed at 21 (Extreme Fear) ✅ RSI at 46 (neutral to oversold) ✅ Choppy consolidation in range ✅ "Bull market is over" narratives everywhere ✅ Retail giving up and selling ✅ Whales accumulating quietly ✅ Liquidation event clearing out leverage ✅ Volume profile showing accumulation ✅ Market despair and hopelessness We're not at a top. We're in the middle of the game. ──────────────────────────────────── 💰 Why I'm All In In my last post I said I went ALL IN on IG:BITCOIN and my selected alts. (after earlier shorting around 120k and sitting on cash) Not because I'm reckless. Not because I'm ignoring risk. But because: The macro structure is intact The demand zone is holding RSI is at historical launch support Volume shows accumulation, not distribution No euphoria has occurred yet The chart does not reflect a completed bull market Government liquidity will return mechanically Largest liquidation in history = weak hands removed Institutional holders aren't selling We're in the historical extended post-halving window This is structure. This is patience. This is conviction based on data. ──────────────────────────────────── 🙏 Final Thoughts I know many of you are hurting right now. I know hope feels dangerous. But look at the data objectively: October was the largest forced liquidation in history—not organic selling The government shutdown created a temporary liquidity vacuum Zero signs of euphoria anywhere in the market Institutional holders and whales are accumulating The chart structure shows mid-cycle correction , not cycle top Sometimes, the best opportunities come when: Everyone is bearish The crowd has capitulated Fear is at its peak And the chart is quietly building the foundation for the next explosive leg This is not hopium. This is structure. This is the setup. The Golden Bull Run hasn't even started breathing yet. We're not at the end— we're at the reset point before the real parabolic phase. ──────────────────────────────────── 📌 Key Levels to Watch Support Levels: Primary Demand Zone: $98K - $104K (current position) Mid-Channel Support: $90K - $95K Critical Invalidation: $85k-$90K (weekly close) Breakout Levels: Ignition Point: $126K (previous ATH) Confirmation: $130K (weekly close above) Targets: Conservative: $150K - $160K (Q2 2025) Base Case: $170K - $180K (Q3 2025) Extended Cycle: $200K+ (Q4 2025 - Q2 2026) Timeline Checkpoints: End of November 2025: Reclaim $110K December 2025: Break $126K and establish new ATH Q1 2026: Parabolic acceleration phase and potential cycle peak(extended thesis) ──────────────────────────────────── 🎯 What Would Make Me Change My Mind? I will publicly update and reassess if: Weekly close below $85k-$90K (channel break) TGA remains elevated 4+ weeks after shutdown ends Institutional ETF outflows persist through December RSI breaks and holds below 40 Fear & Greed stays below 30 through Q1 2026 Failure to reclaim $110K by November 31, 2025 I'm bullish, but not blind. The market will tell us if the thesis breaks. ──────────────────────────────────── 🔚 Bottom Line This bull market isn't slowing down—it's resetting for the real parabolic phase. CRYPTOCAP:BTC is gearing up for expansion, and alts will follow with the delayed but inevitable altseason wave. This next 12-18 months is where: Generational wealth is made or missed The real euphoria begins The masses FOMO in—not out The chart finally looks like a bull market Don't let October's liquidation event fool you into thinking this is over. The chart says accumulation. The structure says intact. The liquidity says temporary. The sentiment says despair. That's not a bear market— that's the setup for the next leg. 🐂🔥 ──────────────────────────────────── Not financial advice. This is my personal analysis based on current data. Markets are unpredictable. Trade responsibly. Manage your risk. Do your own research. If you found this analysis valuable, feel free to boost/share. Let's see who's still standing when IG:BITCOIN crosses $150K. ────────────────────────────────────
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by niclaxfx
BTCUSD: Overall trend is moving downwardLooking at the candlestick chart, Bitcoin has formed a potential M-top or double top pattern, which is a typical top reversal signal. Currently, the price has broken below all short-term moving averages, indicating obvious weakness. Yesterday, it is consistent with my analysis. BTC broke below the short-term support at 102,000, fell to around 100,000 where it found support and rebounded. However, this also showed an overall downward shift in the trend, with yesterday’s short-term support at 102,000 having turned into today’s resistance. Overall, I predict that Bitcoin will continue its overall downward trend today. The short-term support is at 100,000, and a break below this level would target 98,000. For resistance above, we still focus on 105,000 in the short term, with key attention on 108,000. Only a breakthrough and a firm hold above 108,000 could lead to sustained gains. Buy 100,000 - 100,500 SL 99,000 TP 102,000 - 102,500 - 103,000 Sell 103,500 - 104,000 SL 104,500 TP 102,000 - 101,500 - 101,000
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by KingArthur_
ElDoradoFx – BTCUSD ANALYSIS (09/11/2025, WEEKEND EDITION) (09/11/2025, WEEKEND EDITION) ⸻ 1. Market Overview Bitcoin (BTCUSD) remains under bearish pressure around $101,500, extending its correction from the recent $103,800 recovery peak. Price action confirms a sustained rejection at the $102,600–$103,000 supply zone, with downside continuation now favored as sellers maintain control. The broader market context shows BTC trapped between the $102,600 ceiling and $99,200 floor, forming a descending channel. Unless bulls reclaim $102,600+, momentum remains bearish heading into next week’s macro calendar (CPI & PPI releases). ⸻ 2. Technical Breakdown 🔹 Daily (D1): • BTC continues trading below the 20EMA, 50EMA, and 100EMA — confirming sustained bearish structure. • RSI ~38, indicating weak momentum and no signs of trend reversal. • MACD histogram continues printing red bars, showing continuous sell-side pressure. • Price remains within a macro range between $99,000–$108,000, with downside favored until structure shifts. 🔹 H1: • Strong rejection from descending trendline at $102,300–$102,600. • CHoCH confirmed to the downside below $101,800. • EMAs aligned bearish (20 < 50 < 200). • RSI below 45; MACD momentum fading — signals bearish continuation likely. 🔹 15M–5M: • Structure shows lower highs and weak pullbacks. • Minor demand zone at $101,000–$100,900; break of this level could trigger a liquidity sweep toward $99,200. • RSI near 36 with weak MACD cross — short-term bounce possible but unsustainable without strong volume. ⸻ 3. Fibonacci Analysis (Last Swing: 103,896 → 99,249) Level Price (USD) Comment 38.2% 101,037 First retracement / initial resistance 50.0% 101,570 Mid-zone equilibrium 61.8% 102,090 Key reaction level within supply zone 🎯 Golden Zone: 101,000 – 102,090 → Acting as intraday supply zone for high-probability sells. ⸻ 4. High-Probability Trade Scenarios 📉 Bearish Continuation Setup (Main Bias) • Entry Zone: 101,900 – 102,400 (Golden Zone retest) • TPs: 101,000 → 100,000 → 99,200 → 98,800 • SL: Above 102,600 • Confirmation: Rejection candle + RSI failure to cross 50 • Rationale: Retest of former support turned resistance within descending structure; EMAs and momentum indicators favor continuation. 💥 Breakout SELL Setup • Trigger: 1H candle close below 100,900 • Retest Zone: 101,100 – 101,300 • TPs: 100,000 → 99,200 → 98,500 • SL: Above 101,600 • Rationale: Structural break of key demand; confirms continuation of broader downtrend. 📈 Countertrend BUY Setup (Low Probability) • Entry Zone: 99,200 – 98,900 (Liquidity Sweep Zone) • TPs: 100,800 → 101,600 → 102,400 • SL: Below 98,700 • Confirmation: Bullish divergence on RSI or MACD + absorption wicks • Rationale: Potential liquidity collection zone where short covering may occur; low conviction long setup. ⸻ 5. Fundamental Watch • Weekend volatility remains thin; potential for stop-hunts before Monday’s open. • DXY holding above 105 supports bearish sentiment in BTC. • No major macroeconomic catalysts until early next week — expect range-bound but reactive price behavior. • CME futures gap near $102,800 could attract a brief fill before resumption lower. ⸻ 6. Key Technical Levels Type Levels (USD) Resistance 102,400 / 102,600 / 103,000 / 105,800 Support 101,000 / 100,000 / 99,200 / 98,900 Golden Zone 101,000 – 102,090 Break Buy Trigger > 102,600 Break Sell Trigger < 100,900 ⸻ 7. Analyst Summary BTC is consolidating under the 102K–103K ceiling, showing clear exhaustion from buyers and renewed strength from sellers. The Golden Zone (101,000–102,090) offers the highest-probability sell opportunities for continuation to 99K. Momentum, EMAs, and trend alignment all support a bearish outlook unless price cleanly reclaims 102,600+ on H1 structure. ⸻ 8. Final Bias Summary ✅ Primary Bias: Bearish below 102K — selling rallies within the 101–102K zone targeting 99K. ⚠️ Secondary Bias: Bullish recovery only if 102,600 breaks with volume and structure shift confirmed. ⸻ — ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Team 🚀
VANTAGE:BTCUSDShort
by ELDORADOFX
BTC is pulling back to test support levelsToday, BTC has shown an overall volatile trend. A death cross signal has appeared on the daily chart, with short-term moving averages forming a bearish alignment, indicating a short-term bearish trend. Overall, BTC has clearly entered a correction phase in the short term, and the price may continue to test lower support levels. We will pay short-term attention to the support at 102,000, with key focus on the critical support at 100,000. For resistance above, the short-term level is at 105,000, and the key level to watch is 108,000. If it can stand firmly above 108,000, a rebound into an upward trend may occur. Buy 102,000 - 102,500 SL 101,000 TP 103,500 - 104,000 Sell 104,500 - 104,000 SL 105,000 TP 103,000 - 102,500
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by KingArthur_
BTCUSD – DAILY PROFESSIONAL ANALYSIS (04 NOV 2025)Prepared by: ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Analyst Desk ⸻ 🧭 1️⃣ Market Overview Bitcoin has experienced a strong bearish continuation, breaking decisively below the key structural support at 108,200, confirming a shift in market sentiment. The break of structure (BOS) at 109,600 turned the mid-term bias bearish, with price now testing the psychological level at 100,000. RSI is at 32 on the daily chart, showing near-oversold conditions, but momentum remains heavy to the downside. Unless bulls reclaim 101,000–102,000, sellers are likely to continue dominating toward 98,600–97,000. ⸻ 📊 2️⃣ Technical Breakdown 🔻 Daily (D1) • Price broke below the long-term ascending trendline from August. • EMAs aligned for bearish continuation (20 < 50 < 200). • RSI 32 → weak recovery potential but still room for downside liquidity sweep. → Interpretation: Bears fully in control until 102,000 is reclaimed. 🔻 1-Hour (H1) • Descending channel intact; price rejected from supply zone 101,200–101,600. • RSI hovering around 30–40; possible minor retracement before further drop. • MACD still printing red histogram bars → bearish momentum active. → Interpretation: Look for short opportunities near resistance retests. ⚠️ 15M–5M (Intraday) • Price formed a small double bottom near 99,550, showing temporary relief bounce. • RSI rebounding, but no confirmation of reversal. • EMA50 (H1) around 101,000 acting as dynamic resistance. → Interpretation: Possible short-term correction before continuation down. ⸻ 📐 3️⃣ Fibonacci Analysis Swing Range: 104,839 → 99,559 Level Price Observation 38.2% 101,455 Minor retracement zone 50.0% 102,200 Key confluence with EMA50 61.8% 102,950 Strong resistance zone for potential short re-entry ✅ Golden Zone: 101,455 – 102,950 This is the ideal sell re-entry area if price pulls back. ⸻ 🎯 4️⃣ High-Probability Trade Scenarios 🔻 SELL SETUP (PRIMARY BIAS) Scenario A – Golden Zone Retest • Entry: 101,455–102,950 (Fibonacci + EMA confluence) 🎯 TP1 → 100,000 TP2 → 99,000 TP3 → 97,000 🛑 SL → Above 103,300 Scenario B – Continuation Breakout • Trigger: Break & retest below 99,550 🎯 TP1 → 98,600 TP2 → 97,000 TP3 → 95,800 🛑 SL → Above 100,300 ⸻ 🟢 BUY SETUP (ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO) Scenario A – Support Reversal Zone • Entry: 99,550–98,600 (if strong bullish reaction with engulfing candles) 🎯 TP1 → 101,000 TP2 → 102,000 TP3 → 103,000 🛑 SL → Below 98,200 ⸻ 🕐 5️⃣ Fundamental Watch • US yields rising and DXY strengthening above 105.2 → bearish pressure on BTC. • Market sentiment risk-off due to global equity weakness. • Watch upcoming US Unemployment & CPI data — could trigger volatility reversal. ⸻ ⚙️ 6️⃣ Key Technical Levels Type Levels Resistance 101,455 / 102,200 / 102,950 Support 99,550 / 98,600 / 97,000 Golden Zone 101,455 – 102,950 Breakout Confirmation Below 99,550 or Above 103,000 ⸻ 🧾 7️⃣ Analyst Summary BTC confirmed a bearish structure, with short-term retracements expected toward the Golden Zone (101,455–102,950) before further downside continuation. Momentum indicators still favor sellers, though oversold readings could create minor pullbacks. Until 103,000 is broken to the upside, bias remains bearish. ⸻ 📈 8️⃣ Final Bias Summary 🔻 Bearish below 102,000 → Targets 99,000 / 97,000 / 95,800 🟢 Bullish only above 103,000 → Targets 104,800 / 106,000 ⸻ — ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Team 🚀
VANTAGE:BTCUSD
by ELDORADOFX
BTC faces a crash, can it hold the $100000 mark?#BTCUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT Affected by market news, BTC's hourly chart showed a large bearish candlestick, falling to a low of around 104000. Currently, regardless of the time frame, BTC has reached the lower Bollinger Band area, and all moving averages across different timeframes are trending downwards in tandem, with the MACD indicator showing a bearish crossover and increasing volume. There are no signs of a technical reversal yet, and in the short term, BTC still has room for further downward correction. If 104000 is breached again, BTC may further decline to 102000-101000, or even the psychological level of 100000. It's only a matter of time, and the bulls will temporarily back down. Therefore, if BTC rebounds to 105500-106500 in the short term, shorting BTC can be considered.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Miracle-Walker_GC
BTC/USD POTENTIAL BULLISH REVERSAL SETUPAnalysis: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently consolidating near the $106,800 area after a strong bearish move that broke multiple structures. The chart shows clear Smart Money Concepts (SMC) signals such as Change of Character (CHoCH) and Break of Structure (BOS), indicating the end of the recent downtrend and the potential start of accumulation before a bullish correction. After liquidity was collected below the Equal Lows (EQL) near $106,000, buyers have begun to show interest, forming a potential reversal pattern. Price is now reacting to a demand zone and showing early bullish signs. Key Technical Highlights: Market Structure: After a strong bearish break, BTC is forming a base with BOS confirmation — signaling possible trend reversal. Equal Lows (EQL): Liquidity has been swept below $106,000, suggesting institutional accumulation. Entry Zone: Around $106,600 – $106,800 (after minor pullback and confirmation). Target Zone: $108,500 – $109,700, aligning with the next supply area and previous structural highs. Stop-Loss Area: Below $105,500, under the liquidity sweep zone for safety. Bias: Bullish (short-term) — as long as price holds above $106,000, BTC is likely to continue toward $109,000+. BTC/USD is showing early signs of reversal after liquidity collection below key lows. A pullback toward $106,500 could offer an ideal long entry opportunity, with upside targets around $109,700. Traders should watch for bullish confirmation before entering to validate momentum continuation.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Zickey_11