Bitcoin at High-Probability Reversal Zone – Long Setup in PlayAs I expected in the previous idea , Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) started declining and reached its full target.
Right now, Bitcoin has entered the heavy support zone($78,260-$70,080). Generally, strong support and resistance zones don’t break with just one attempt. On a daily timeframe, this is the second attack, but on the 4-hour timeframe, this is the first. We can expect a corrective move upward before Bitcoin attempts another attack on this key zone.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears that Bitcoin is completing wave 5.
Also, we can see a positive Regular Divergence (RD+) between two consecutive valleys.
I expect Bitcoin to start rising from the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage ($75,000-$74,000) and fill the CME Gap($84,560-$--,---) that will be formed once financial markets open.
Note: If tensions escalate operationally in the Middle East, we could suddenly see Bitcoin sharply decline and lose its heavy support zone($78,260-$70,080).
What do you think—can Bitcoin drop below $70,000, or is this a good buying area?
Target: $78,614
Stop Loss(SL): $71,117
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $80,000-$79,260
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $86,170-$84,760
Points may shift as the market evolves
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
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BTCUSDTPERP
The key is whether it can rise above 79.9K ~ 80.9K
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#BTCUSDT
It's testing support near the left Fibonacci level of 1.618 (76787.43).
The key to this uptrend is whether it can break above the Fibonacci 1.902 (79902.66) level on the right and Fibonacci 2 (80999.68) levels on the left.
If it fails to rise, it could lead to further declines, so we need to consider countermeasures.
The maximum decline is expected to be around 69000 to 73499.86.
Therefore, we should monitor the trading volume as it approaches the maximum decline.
The next period of volatility is expected around February 7th.
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Thank you for reading.
We wish you successful trading.
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BTC Bullish Setup: RSI < 30 Has Marked Strong ReversalsBTC Daily Chart – RSI < 30 Has Historically Marked Strong Bounce Zones
On the BTC daily chart, we can see a recurring pattern: whenever the RSI dips below the 30 level (oversold conditions), price has historically reacted with a notable bounce.
The highlighted blue circles show multiple instances across different market phases where:
- RSI dropped into oversold territory
-Price was trading near key support or demand zones
\-BTC followed with a relief rally or trend continuation move
This does not guarantee a bottom every time, but it does suggest that risk-to-reward improves significantly when BTC becomes oversold on higher timeframes like the daily chart.
Key takeaways:
- RSI < 30 on the daily has often aligned with local or macro bottoms
- These zones are worth watching for reversal signals, bullish divergence, or confirmation from price action
- Best used in combination with support levels, volume, and market structure
Cheers
Hexa
#BTC UpdatePlease be patient. The fact that I haven't formulated a trading strategy indicates that I'm also waiting and observing the market.
Let me update my market view and expectations.
Firstly, the support level I'm watching is around 74508. I was hoping it would break below the 2D level turning point before entering, but at that time it was $42 away. Also, capturing liquidity at this level could lead to significant volatility. I would consider entering if a strong rebound occurred, but this expectation didn't materialize, so the subsequent rebound was irrelevant to us.
As for whether it will fall further, I think it's still possible. If it does fall further, we need to observe and patiently wait for a signal before entering.
Furthermore, we've entered a zone of strong demand, so attempting short positions now requires extreme caution and should only be done with small amounts of capital. The nearest resistance is around 80600, and the further resistance zone is around 86000-88000.
Please pay attention to these areas to look for bullish or bearish signals!
BITGET:BTCUSDT.P
$BTC Weekly Fractal Breakdown. Liquidity around 70k!CRYPTOCAP:BTC — Weekly Market Structure Overview
Bitcoin is currently following a price sequence that closely resembles the previous market cycle.
During the last major distribution phase, price topped, broke market structure, retraced, and then declined approximately 32% into a weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG).
In the current cycle, the same structural behaviour has occurred, with a larger drawdown of roughly 40%, bringing price directly into a comparable weekly FVG.
---
Current area of interest
Weekly Fair Value Gap: 70,000 – 80,000
Price has now reached this zone.
The next significant technical reference is the 185-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently located near 70,000.
---
Historical behaviour at these levels
When Bitcoin reaches a weekly FVG during a distribution phase, the market typically follows a three-step process:
1. An initial reaction bounce
2. A period of range development
3. A directional resolution, which is usually one of the following:
– Reclaim of market structure, leading to continuation
– Failure to hold the FVG, resulting in a deeper correction
---
Key technical levels
Resistance: 91,000 – 95,000
Short-term risk below: 76,000
Next major liquidity zone: 70,000
---
This behaviour reflects systematic market rebalancing after distribution, rather than random price movement.
Participants who understand a higher-timeframe structure are better positioned—those who do not often provide liquidity for stronger hands.
---
As outlined in my previous BTC analysis, a sustained loss of the 185-week EMA would likely pave the way for the 50,000 region, a move that historically unfolds over several months rather than occurring rapidly.
For now, Bitcoin is expected to consolidate around the 70,000 area. Until price can reclaim a higher-timeframe structure, the short-term bias remains to the downside.
DYOR | NFA
Please hit the like button if you like it. Do not forget to follow me!
If this chart crosses 200 likes, I'll cover altcoins in the coming week.
Thank. you.
Bitcoin Diverges From Gold, - 20% Downside Risk Ahead?Hey Realistic Traders!
“With Bitcoin down more than 30% from its all-time high, is a further 20% decline on the horizon?”
Let’s dive into the technical analysis to answer this question and see what the price action is actually signaling.
On the daily chart, BTCUSDT has consistently moved below the EMA200 line. Price has rarely even touched the EMA200, reinforcing the strength of the broader bearish trend.
During the Wave 4 formation, BTCUSDT consolidated and formed a rising wedge pattern, a corrective structure that typically appears as upside momentum weakens within a larger downtrend. A decisive breakdown from this pattern signals renewed bearish pressure and often marks the beginning of Wave 5 in Elliott Wave theory.
Following the breakdown, BTCUSDT retested the rising wedge pattern twice, forming a lower swing high. Furthermore, a stochastic crossover occurred, adding confirmation to the bearish bias.
This combination of signals strengthens the bearish outlook. We determined the target levels using Fibonacci ratios; we expect Wave 5 could extend toward the 0.786 Fibonacci level, aligning with the second downside target at 62,200 . Before reaching that level, the price may form a consolidation pattern around the first target at 69,676, or the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio.
This bearish wave count remains valid as long as the price stays below the stop-loss level at 94,789. A move above this level would invalidate the potential Wave 5 formation and shift the outlook back to neutral.
Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below 🚀
Disclaimer: Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Bitcoin.
#BTC Not Breaking the Low?📊#BTC Not Breaking the Low?
🧠The support in the yellow support zone has been exhausted, and the rebound strength has not met my expectations, indicating that market sentiment is already very pessimistic. Therefore, I think there is a high probability that it will continue to fall below the low L, because referring to the development of ETH, it should also continue to decline from here.
➡️If it quickly breaks below the low L, then the short-term support level worth paying attention to is around 78715.
⚠️The extreme support level is around 74500.
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Bitcoin Holds Heavy Support — Bullish Flag Signals Next ImpulseAs I expected in my previous idea , Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) reached its targets and rose as anticipated.
Currently, Bitcoin is moving within the heavy support zone($78,260-$70,080).
From a classical technical analysis standpoint, on the 15-minute timeframe, Bitcoin seems to be forming a bullish flag pattern, which is a good sign for continued short-term upside.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears Bitcoin is completing a Double Three Correction(WXY) on the 15-minute timeframe. We should expect the start of a 5-wave impulsive move next.
I expect Bitcoin to continue upward in the next few hours, at least toward the Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($80,100-$79,450) and possibly fill parts of the upper CME Gap($84,560-$79,660).
What’s your view on Bitcoin’s direction, at least for the next couple of days? I’d love to hear your thoughts!
First Target: Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($80,100-$79,450)
Second Target: $80,971
Stop Loss(SL): $76,281
Points may shift as the market evolves
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $86,170-$84,760
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $77,460-$76,600
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $75,000-$74,000
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
BTC/USDT — Late-Stage Bearish Cycle: Capitulation Still Missing✔️ The fourth consecutive red monthly close is in. This has happened only twice in history — one of those periods extended to six bearish months in a row.
If February fails to close above 79k and RSI holds below 50, that would confirm a full bearish cycle.
✔️ The bearish setup has played out, with the week closing –11%.
🟢 Most bearish signals have already been realized — consolidation is the logical next phase.
🟢 Several billions in liquidations over the week, mostly longs. The market has been flushed.
🟢 Metals, equities, and other markets suggest a broad lack of risk appetite — no one is eager to buy.
🟠 Price stalled at a strong level that previously triggered a reversal in April. However, liquidity below the low remains untouched — reversing without sweeping it would be unusual.
🟠 A new Fed chair is in place, but it’s still unclear whether this is bullish or bearish for markets.
🟠 Extreme fear persists.
🟠 Gold has started correcting — liquidity rotation takes time.
🔴 Both institutional and retail investors continue selling crypto ETFs.
🔴 Negative cumulative delta: –$1.74B.
🔴 The risk of entering a prolonged bear market is increasing.
🧠 A true bottom won’t form without a final capitulation move.
What’s needed is a decisive flush — a sharp sell-off followed by a strong buyback that visually “stitches” the decline on the chart.
My base case: 1–2 weeks of slow grind up, then a move from the 80–90k area into a lower low, and only then a reversal.
A long-term bearish scenario exists — but I’m deliberately not expanding on it here.
BTCUSD making head and shoulder pattern.One time oppurtunity.Head and shoulder pattern is likely to form in weekly pattern if 74500 holds.
If it breaks 74500 abondon this idea..
A successful H&S can take the price to 22.5K
Presently right shoulder formation is likely possible upto 108K.
Dont loose this oppurtunity to go long now till 108k and then short from 108k.
play safe with required leverage.you can turn 1k to 10k or more with this kind of patterns.
Can Price Break Above $79,300 to Trigger the Bullish Move?Give this idea a thumbs up if you agree 👍
Here’s a 15min timeframe chart. The horizontal white line drawn is serving as a resistance hindering a bullish move. If price should break above it, we can expect a bullish move.
Not everyone will catch this at first glance, but a closer look tells the story.
Disclaimer: Ideas fail, DYOR!!!
GBTC is hinting a major bottom soon on BTC!AMEX:GBTC
– Elliott Wave Update (1H Chart)
The decline from the Wave B high continues to follow a clean 5-wave impulse. Current price action suggests we are inside Wave (iv) before the final flush.
🧩 Structure so far:
🔻 Wave (i)
• Initial sharp drop
• Set the tone for the entire downtrend
🔻 Wave (ii)
• Reactive bounce into the mid-channel
• Perfect retracement behaviour for an impulse
🔻 Wave (iii)
• Long, persistent decline
• Strongest momentum segment
• Clean subdivisions visible on lower timeframes
🔵 Wave (iv) now forming:
• Grinding upward inside the corrective channel
• Should remain below upper channel resistance
• Likely forming a flat / zigzag corrective before rollover
🔻 Wave (v) expected next:
• Final leg down to complete C
• Target = lower channel + 60–62 region
• Completion of the larger corrective cycle
🟢 After Wave C completes:
• Expect a medium-term trend reversal
• First target = reclaiming broken channel lines
• Bigger target = recovery toward prior structure above 90+
📌 Summary:
Wave (iv) = corrective bounce.
Wave (v) = final drop → then macro reversal likely. ⚡
I am overall bullish on CRYPTOCAP:BTC after this drop. Please check my
BTC update here.
Bitcoin Breakdown Accelerates – ETF Outflows & Geopolitical RiskAs I expected in the previous idea , Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) not only reached its target but even dropped further, surpassing all initial targets (full target and beyond).
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s decline has been driven by several factors. First, the increasing tensions in the Middle East play a significant role. Second, over one billion dollars has been withdrawn from ETFs, which is not a positive sign for Bitcoin.
Currently, Bitcoin seems to have broken through the support zone($86,420-$83,820), and this break has been accompanied by high volume. It also appears to be in a pullback phase.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, we can anticipate that Bitcoin may begin a new five-wave decline. The intensity of this wave could vary depending on fundamental conditions and incoming news.
I expect that once Bitcoin enters Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($86,240-$84,850), it may drop to around $80,273. If the bearish momentum continues, we could see even lower targets.
Notes: Over the weekend, the possibility of increased tensions between the U.S. and Iran, as well as broader geopolitical issues, could impact Bitcoin’s movement. Also, given that trading volumes tend to drop on weekends, we shouldn’t expect massive price swings unless significant news breaks. Therefore, it’s crucial to manage your risk carefully.
First Target: $80,273
Second Target: $78,463
Stop Loss(SL): $86,756
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $81,000-$78,130
CME Gap: $93,060-$92,940
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
Pause, then drop — BTC won’t stop Back in October, I shared my view:
BTC below 81K, with a deeper move toward 60K.
So far, price action is following this path step by step.
After several days of strong selling pressure, Bitcoin is taking a technical pause — a normal cooldown before the next move.
What I’m watching right now 👀
• A short-term push into the 84,000–84,500 area
• This zone looks like a potential resistance
• From there, I expect continuation to the downside and a new local low
My downside targets 🎯
Breaking the move into clear steps:
• 🥇 Target 1: 80,000
• 🥈 Target 2: 78,000
• 🥉 Target 3: 73,000 and potentially lower
Between these levels, short consolidations are possible before the next leg down.
Trade idea (my personal plan) 🧠
• 📍 Short area: 84,000–84,500
• ⛔ Stop: 84,700
A move into this zone does not cancel the bearish structure,
but it defines risk and adjusts positioning.
Invalidation zone ⚠️
• ❌ 84,700
As long as price stays below this level, the bearish structure remains valid.
For now, momentum stays on the downside.
Watching reactions at resistance before the next impulse. 🐻📉
When a step-down trend is occurring, you should trade more
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#BTCUSDT
The price is falling in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range, increasing the likelihood of a step-down trend.
Therefore, the key question is whether it can rise above 84739.74.
If not,
1st: 79902.66 ~ 80999.68
2nd: 76787.43
You should check for support near the first and second levels above.
The most important range is 69000 ~ 73499.86. As the price approaches this range, you should observe whether trading volume increases and a trend toward an upward turn is observed.
The advantage of the coin market is that you can trade in decimal units.
This allows for a less burdensome trading environment.
If you sell when the price drops to 84739.74, you can buy back the same amount you sold at any point before the price rises above 84739.74, thereby increasing your coin (token) count.
Since the stock market trades in one-week increments, even if the price falls significantly, the number of shares sold remains constant. Therefore, the transaction is completed with a sell.
The coin market also allows for the purchase of decimals, even for the most expensive coins (tokens), making it easy to purchase the desired coin (token).
Therefore, holding a large number of coins (tokens) is crucial in the coin market.
Regardless of whether the price is rising or falling, you should strive to increase your holdings by any means necessary.
If your goal is day trading, you can trade similarly to how you would in a traditional stock market.
If, on the other hand, you want to increase your holdings while also generating cash profits, you should retain the coins (tokens) corresponding to your cash profits to increase your holdings.
When a cascading downtrend is observed, it's wise to make bold trades to increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to your profits.
This is because a cascading downtrend always ends in an uptrend.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
We wish you successful trading.
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- Here's an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I'll explain more in detail when the bear market begins.
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#BTC Liquidity Request?📊#BTC Liquidity Request?
🧠From a structural perspective, after being resisted in the gray resistance zone (S/R), we quickly fell back. The yellow support zone also failed to provide the expected support, thus turning into a resistance zone. This area also has some attraction, so we need to be wary of a potential rebound.
➡️We tested the support level from two months ago. If it breaks below the low L, we'll likely see a rapid rebound, so shorting here is not recommended.
➡️If the low L is broken, it means we've continued the bearish trend. At that point, we need to pay attention to lower support levels, such as 70,000-745,000.
⚠️The new Fed chair will be announced today, so be prepared for potentially sharp fluctuations. Please manage your risk carefully.
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BITGET:BTCUSDT.P
#BTC support and resistance?📊#BTC support and resistance?
🧠From a structural perspective, it's reasonable for us to encounter resistance and pull back near the resistance zone. However, the fact that it fell back before reaching the 90599 resistance level I'm watching indicates that the volatility reaction occurred ahead of schedule. If we continue to rise according to the current structure, then the resistance levels we should pay attention to are around 91888 and 94000.
➡️If we fail to continue the bullish momentum and instead retest the yellow support zone below (85400-87300), then this will be a worthwhile area to consider for going long.
⚠️This week is the FOMC meeting, so rapid fluctuations are reasonable. Please be sure to manage your risk.
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BITGET:BTCUSDT.P
IMPORTANT BITCOIN ALERT! TRAP BEFORE THE CRASH? Jan 30 2026!!BTC IMPORTANT ALERT! Jan 29 2026.
I know you've been waiting for this update, but there's been a new development in the chart.
Data from 2014 to 2026, presented across multiple charts, suggests that we are approaching a major market crash. That said, there may still be short-term rallies in altcoins, while Bitcoin is likely to remain relatively muted. This final move could turn out to be the ultimate bull trap.
This is purely based on fractal analysis; it’s not a personal bias.
I expect Bitcoin to form a bottom somewhere between $44k and $54k over the coming months. I’ll be sharing a more detailed chart soon, including the projected timelines for potential bottoms in both BTC and altcoins.
I plan to position on the bearish side once the final bull trap is in. Until then, we will continue scalping on lower timeframes, primarily from the short side.
We will make money even if the market crashes.
This cycle hasn’t been the bull run we hoped for; it’s been brutal. But what defines us is that we never give up. We adapt, we fight back, and we keep going.
Hope this gets the point across.
In short, BTC could still push as high as $100k in the coming weeks as part of a final bull trap, even though the overall structure looks extremely ugly.
Please hit the like button if you like it.
Let me know what you think in the comments.
Thank you
#PEACE
BTC Faces Major Resistance Before FOMC – Breakdown or Breakout?As I expected in the previous idea , Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) has followed the anticipated bullish and bearish trends and has reached all of its targets (full target).
Now, the question is whether Bitcoin can sustain above the $90,000 level. Stay tuned!
At the moment, Bitcoin is moving near the resistance zone($90,600-$89,300) and around the 50_SMA(Daily), and the resistance line.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, it seems that Bitcoin is completing a Double Three Correction(WXY) within the ascending channel.
I expect that Bitcoin might not break through this resistance zone($90,600-$89,300) on the first attempt and could start to decline, potentially dropping to around $88,133. If the bearish momentum continues, we might see even lower targets.
First Target: $88,133
Second Target: Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $87,000-$85,630
Stop Loss(SL): $91,823(Worst)
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $92,000-$91,000
CME Gap: $93,060-$92,940
In the coming hours, markets face the Fed Funds Rate decision and Powell’s press conference, which typically bring elevated volatility. If the Fed holds rates at 3.75% as expected, the initial reaction may be muted, but real movement will depend on forward guidance. Historically, when outcomes align with expectations, gold tends to stay supported amid uncertainty, especially with U.S. government shutdown risks in the background, while Bitcoin remains sensitive to liquidity signals and risk sentiment. Any shift in Powell’s tone — whether more cautious or more hawkish — can quickly drive sharp moves.
⚠️ Traders should expect volatility both at the release and during the press conference, avoid impulsive entries, and prioritize risk management.
Note: Rising tensions in the Middle East could quickly intensify Bitcoin's downward trend
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
Bitcoin - Creating another -30% correction!🤬Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) is still in a bearish market:
🔎Analysis summary:
Just a couple of months ago, Bitcoin created its expected bullmarket all time high. Since then, we already witnessed a correction of about -30%. But looking at higher timeframe structure, this correction is not over and we might see a final push of -30% lower soon.
📝Levels to watch:
$60,000
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION






















