BTC and the Gold Liquidity “Bleep”Given the current stage of COINBASE:BTCUSD (and crypto in general), I wanted to share a brief extract from my latest market note to clients, focused on the sharp volatility we saw yesterday.
I know many here might not be familiar with the analytical framework I use, but I believe the insight is highly relevant — and this particular observation is worth sharing more broadly.
📊 Context
Yesterday’s upward move might not be what it seems — it’s not necessarily a bullish or recovery signal.
I’m viewing it rather as a “bleep” — a short-term liquidity event triggered by the Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) sell-off, rather than genuine crypto market strength.
Here’s why 👇
1️⃣ Sinusoidal EMA(50) & Liquidity Flow
The EMA(50) on BTC showed a sinusoidal, non-trending pattern, which usually reflects temporary liquidity injections rather than structural demand.
The timing aligns almost perfectly with the Gold ( COMEX:GC1! ) sell-off, which accelerates roughly 30 minutes before BINANCE:BTCUSDT BTC’s sharp uptick.
This suggests a brief capital rotation — reactive capital flow, not a fresh inflow into crypto.
2️⃣ Bearish Daily Candlestick Formation
The daily candle formed by this move is structurally bearish — a Bearish Engulfing pattern with a long upper wick.
That kind of rejection typically signals the move lacked conviction and was quickly faded.
🧩 The Broader Implication
If this was indeed a temporary disruption — not a shift in internal crypto momentum — then my bearish count remains unchanged.
We can still assume the market is in a short-term consolidation phase (a state of indecision), and a Drop Level 3 (DL3) is still pending — although not mandatory.
Also note: we’re approaching the mid-week reversal window, which often marks a short-term sentiment pivot.
⚠️ Extra Note
On the 15-minute chart (found it in the first comment), the sinusoidal EMA behavior is much clearer.
Also, the large wick in the most recently closed candle could hint that a DL3 drop may not develop — meaning BTC might already have set this week’s low.
If we see more wicks like this, it could signal that market makers are trapping shorts, which would further reduce the likelihood of another major drop.
🧠 Bottom Line
To me, this move is more about liquidity behavior than a trend change.
I’m maintaining a bearish count, which typically unfolds in three phases — though it could resolve in just two.
Remember: when you interpret markets probabilistically, not emotionally, these “bleeps” stop being noise.
They become part of the process — and they don’t have the power to alter your account’s expected value.
They’re simply rare distortions you can safely omit from your broader projection.
