Get started

Captainvincent

Gold Maintains Re-Accumulation Above OB, Wave Rebound Target🔍 Market Context After a sharp decline from the ATH GOLD 4,371 USD peak, gold has completed a liquidity sweep around the 4,010 USD bottom and established a stable accumulation zone above the Order Block 4,080 USD . Buyers are gradually regaining control as the price holds firm at the OB and signs of short-term supply absorption emerge. The Resistance 4,149 USD zone is currently a temporary barrier; if successfully breached – gold may trigger a rebound wave towards Fair Value Gap (FVG) zones at 4,197 and 4,235 USD. The current price structure leans towards a bullish retracement structure – prioritizing buy orders when the price reacts from the active demand zone. 💎 Key Technical Structure Order Block (OB): 4,080 – 4,085 USD → a critical support zone, confluence with Fibo 0.786, serving as an accumulation base. Resistance (Breakout Level): 4,149 USD → confirmation zone for upward direction, requiring a decisive breakout. FVG1: 4,197 – 4,210 USD → initial target, short-term supply test zone. FVG2: 4,225 – 4,235 USD → confluence resistance zone, potential profit-taking on the rebound wave. ATH GOLD: 4,371 USD → long-term resistance, extended target if the market maintains strong buying momentum. Overall Structure: → Short-term: bullish recovery. → Medium-term: re-accumulation after a deep correction phase. 📈 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ BUY Setup #1 – Retest Order Block 4,080 USD Entry: 4,080 – 4,085 SL: 4,060 TP1: 4,149 TP2: 4,197 TP3: 4,235 ✅ Conditions: Wait for the price to retrace to the OB zone and show clear bullish reversal signals (rejection or bullish engulfing). ➡️ This is a classic “Buy the Dip” setup – aligning with the recovery structure, with high probability due to OB + Fibonacci strong support confluence. 2️⃣ BUY Setup #2 – Break & Retest zone 4,149 USD Entry: 4,149 – 4,155 SL: 4,130 TP1: 4,197 TP2: 4,235 ✅ Conditions: Price breaks through the 4,149 resistance zone with good volume and lightly retests, not closing candles below 4,130. ➡️ Trend-following setup, riding the momentum when the market confirms a short-term resistance structure breakout. 3️⃣ SELL Scalp – Reaction at FVG 4,235 USD (short-term) Entry: 4,230 – 4,235 SL: 4,245 TP: 4,197 → 4,150 ✅ Conditions: If gold shows weak reaction and lacks follow-up buying at FVG2 zone → consider a short-term technical sell on the pullback. ➡️ Short-term sell – only execute if there is no confirmation of continued upward movement. ⚠️ Risk Management Prioritize BUY according to the main structure (retracement bullish). Avoid FOMO buying in the zone (4,110 – 4,130). If H1 closes candles below 4,060 → invalidates the bullish scenario, wait for structure re-establishment. Maintain moderate order size when trading around FVG zones to avoid noise. 💬 Conclusion Gold is in the process of re-accumulation and preparing for a technical rebound phase. As long as the price holds the Order Block 4,080 USD zone, the recovery structure remains valid and the feasible target is 4,197 → 4,235 USD . If it breaks through 4,235 USD, the market may extend the rally towards the 4,300 – 4,370 USD (ATH GOLD) zone. 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Buy 4,080 → TP 4,197 / 4,235. Buy more when breaking 4,149 confirms upward direction. Sell short reaction at 4,235 if no break continuation signal. 🔥 “Patience at the base — profits come to those who wait for the OB reaction.” ⏰ Time Frame: 1H 📅 Update: 24/10/2025 ✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD – Gold Completes Liquidity Sweep Phase🔍 Market Context After a prolonged decline from the ATH GOLD 4,381 USD peak, gold has formed a Liquidity Sweep around the 4,010 USD area, where selling pressure was fully absorbed by strong buying forces from the demand zone below. The price structure shows signs of a Change of Character (ChoCH) for the first time since the peak, along with the emergence of an Order Block (OB) 4,081 USD – the starting point for a new upward momentum. This indicates a high probability that the market is entering a technical retracement phase , aiming to retest the upper FVG resistance zone, or even extend back to the ATH area if buying pressure continues. 💎 Key Technical Structure Liquidity Sweep: 4,010 – 4,020 USD → liquidity sweep bottom area, increased volume, confirming sell order absorption. Order Block (OB): 4,081 – 4,090 USD → recovery initiation zone; if price retests this area and holds firm → confirmation signal for the upward phase. Fair Value Gaps (FVG): • FVG1: 4,196 – 4,210 USD → first target for the recovery wave. • FVG2: 4,234 – 4,250 USD → next target, confluence with medium-term resistance. OB | ATH GOLD: 4,370 – 4,380 USD → major resistance zone, previous peak; if price breaks through → confirms a new upward trend. Current market structure: → Short-term: bullish recovery (recovering from the bottom zone). → Medium-term: waiting for a break of 4,234 to shift to a complete bullish structure. 📈 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ BUY Setup #1 – Retest Order Block 4,081 USD Entry: 4,081 – 4,085 SL: 4,060 TP1: 4,196 TP2: 4,234 TP3: 4,370 ✅ Condition: Wait for the price to retest the OB 4,081 area, showing a confirmation signal for an increase (rejection / engulfing bullish) or a small BoS on M15. ➡️ This is a classic buy-the-dip setup after a Liquidity Sweep – high probability due to OB + ChoCH confluence + strong demand zone. 2️⃣ BUY Setup #2 – Break & Retest FVG 4,196 USD Entry: 4,196 – 4,200 SL: 4,180 TP: 4,234 → 4,370 ✅ Condition: Price breaks up the first FVG with good volume, then lightly retests without closing below 4,180. ➡️ Trend-following setup, riding the flow as price confirms a break of short-term resistance. 📉 Alternate Scenario – SELL Reaction at 4,234 USD (Short-term Scalp) Entry: 4,234 – 4,240 SL: 4,255 TP: 4,196 → 4,100 ✅ Condition: If price reacts strongly and fails at the second FVG without follow-up volume increase → a short adjustment may occur. ➡️ Short-term sell, only execute if no continuation confirmation at FVG2. ⚠️ Risk Management Prioritize BUY following the main recovery trend, only SELL with clear reaction. Avoid FOMO buying in the middle range (4,130–4,180). If price closes H1 below 4,060 → invalidates recovery trend, pause all buy orders. 💬 Conclusion Gold has completed the Liquidity Sweep phase and is signaling a sustainable technical reversal . Two key areas to watch: 4,081 USD (OB Zone): first bounce support area. 4,234 USD (FVG Zone): area confirming new upward structure. If price holds OB and breaks through FVG, high chance gold will resume upward momentum towards the 4,370 USD (ATH GOLD) area. 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Buy 4,081 USD → TP 4,234 / 4,370 USD. Sell reaction 4,234 USD only with clear reversal signal. 🔥 “Liquidity has been swept — now it’s time to ride the recovery wave.” ⏰ Timeframe: 1H 📅 Update: 23/10/2025 ✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD – Gold Tests Final Structure Before Deciding New Wave“If the 3,950 USD zone is breached, the long-term uptrend may end.” 🔍 Market Context After reaching the historical peak ATH GOLD 4,391 USD , gold has sharply corrected and formed a clear Change of Character (ChoCH) on the H1 frame. Currently, the price is technically recovering to the Resistance – FVG – Fibonacci 4,216 USD zone, which was previously a distribution peak. The sellers are regaining short-term advantage, while the Order Block zone (3,953–3,960 USD) — the starting point of the strongest growth on H4/Daily — is becoming the most critical defense line of the uptrend. If this zone is decisively broken, the medium-term uptrend structure is likely to break and trigger a bearish expansion towards deeper liquidity zones like 3,689 USD. 💎 Technical Analysis Resistance – FVG – Fib Zone: 4,216 – 4,228 → confluence resistance zone FVG + Fibo 0.618, suitable for sell reaction. Liquidity Sweep Zone: 4,043 – 4,006 → intermediate liquidity sweep zone, temporary pause may occur. Order Block | Structural Base: 3,953 – 3,960 → H4 momentum zone → ATH; if breached, long-term uptrend structure invalidated. Liquidity Zone $$$: 3,689 – 3,685 → deep liquidity zone, potential target if OB is broken. Overall Structure: → Short-term: bearish corrective phase. → Medium-term: bullish remains if 3,950 is not breached. 📉 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ SELL Setup – Reaction at 4,216 – 4,228 USD zone Entry: 4,216 – 4,228 SL: 4,240 TP1: 4,043 TP2: 3,956 TP3: 3,689 ✅ Condition: Wait for clear reversal signal (strong rejection or bearish engulfing) on H1/M15 at FVG resistance zone. ➡️ Classic “Sell the Rally” setup – follow the flow after ChoCH, target key OB zone 3,953 USD. 2️⃣ BUY Setup – Reaction at Order Block 3,953 – 3,960 USD Entry: 3,956 – 3,953 SL: 3,940 TP: 4,043 → 4,216 ✅ Condition: Price holds OB and strong reversal signal appears (bullish engulfing / increased volume / small BoS structure turns bullish again). ➡️ This is the decision zone for medium-term trend: if it bounces strongly, buyers will regain control; if breached, gold enters a new deep decline cycle. ⚠️ Risk Management Prioritize SELL when price retraces to 4,216 – 4,228 zone with reversal signal. BUY at 3,953 only with clear reaction; if broken, stop all buy orders. When price closes H4 candle below 3,950 → confirm bearish break, extend target to 3,689 USD. 💬 Conclusion Gold is testing the Order Block foundation of the long-term uptrend (3,953–3,960 USD) . If this zone holds, the market may rebound to 4,216 – 4,280; but if breached, gold is likely to open a deep decline phase to 3,689 USD – where a massive amount of liquidity is concentrated at the bottom. 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Sell 4,216 – 4,228 USD if there is a clear reversal signal. Buy 3,953 – 3,960 USD if there is a strong reaction; If 3,950 is breached → confirm extended downtrend, prioritize SELL continuation. 🔥 “This Order Block built the last gold rally — if it breaks, the next leg down will be brutal.” ⏰ Time Frame: 1H – reference H4/Daily 📅 Update: 22/10/2025 ✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD – Gold Technical Rebound Prepares for Next Waveb]🔍 Market Context After reaching a peak at the ATH GOLD 4,391 USD region, gold has undergone a technical correction — reflecting temporary profit-taking following a strong upward trend. The market structure still maintains a bullish bias as the support zones below (FVG + OB) remain intact and untested. Currently, the price is hovering around 4,325 USD, indicating that selling pressure has weakened. Buyers are likely to return at two strategic zones below — where institutional money (Smart Money) typically accumulates positions before the next upward wave. 💎 Technical Analysis ATH GOLD: 4,391 USD Liquidity Zone $$$: 4,465 – 4,424 USD → the upper liquidity zone, the main target for the next upward wave. FVG Zone: 4,284 – 4,267 USD → an unfilled gap, likely to be retested. Order Block Zone: 4,244 – 4,230 USD → deep discount zone confluence with Fibo 0.786, high probability of strong reaction. Liquidity Clear $$$: 4,186 – 4,190 USD → the last defense zone of the main upward trend. Overall structure remains bullish ; the current decline is merely a phase of adjustment to “accumulate liquidity” before continuing the upward momentum. 📈 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ BUY Setup #1 – FVG Zone 4,267 USD Entry: 4,267 – 4,270 SL: 4,255 TP: 4,330 → 4,366 → 4,391 ✅ Condition: Confirming bullish candle (rejection / engulfing bullish) at the FVG zone or a small BoS appears on M15. ➡️ Short-term “buy-the-dip” setup, leveraging the unfilled FVG zone — where technical buyers often initiate positions first. 2️⃣ BUY Setup #2 – Order Block Zone 4,244 USD Entry: 4,244 – 4,230 SL: 4,210 TP: 4,284 → 4,366 → 4,391 → 4,424 ✅ Condition: Strong confirming candle (engulfing bullish) or a retracement pattern breaking a small BoS back up. ➡️ Swing-buy setup at deep discount zone — confluence of OB + Fibo 0.786, high probability and optimal R:R. ⚠️ Risk Management Avoid FOMO buying in the middle of the range (4,320–4,340). Prioritize waiting for clear reactions at 4,267 and 4,244 before entering trades. If the price closes an H1 candle below 4,210 → pause all buy orders, re-evaluate price action at 4,186. Maintain moderate trading volume during the current rebound phase. 💬 Conclusion Gold is in a phase of healthy technical correction within a major upward trend. The two zones 4,267 USD (FVG Zone) and 4,244 USD (Order Block Zone) are key “accumulation” areas for large capital. When bullish confirmation signals appear, these will be safe buy positions before gold heads back to the peak 4,391 – 4,465 USD . 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Buy at 4,267 – 4,270 USD if reversal confirmation occurs. Buy at 4,244 – 4,230 USD if a strong OB reaction signal appears. 🔥 “Smart money waits at precise levels — not at the top. The next gold wave will emerge between 4.267 and 4.244.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
Gold Plan | Where will gold drop today?🔍 Market Context Gold continues to maintain a short-term upward trend following a series of Break of Structure (BoS) , confirming active buying from lower zones. Currently, the price is approaching the ATH GOLD zone and heading towards the Liquidity Sell Zone 4,281 USD – a densely liquid area where short-term sell reactions from major players may occur. After a hot rise, technical correction risks are starting to increase. Lower zones like 4,186 – 4,152 – 4,130 USD will be potential “accumulation zones” for institutional buyers in the upcoming pullback. 💎 Technical Analysis ATH GOLD: 4,275 – 4,280 USD Liquidity Sell Zone: 4,281 – 4,285 USD → high liquidity resistance area, may trigger short-term reversal reactions. Liquidity Zone $$$: 4,186 – 4,152 USD → crucial support area in the uptrend, where technical reactions are expected. FVG – BoS Zone: 4,152 – 4,148 USD → “price balance” zone yet to be filled, likely to be retested. OB Deep Zone: 4,130 – 4,120 USD → deep demand zone converging with Fibo 0.786 – ideal area for large capital to re-accumulate. Overall structure remains bullish , but in the premium zone – an area where institutions typically distribute orders to gain liquidity before adjusting. 📈 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Main Scenario – Sell reaction at Liquidity Zone 4,281 USD When the price hits the 4,275 – 4,281 USD zone and clear reversal signals appear (rejection candles, bearish engulfing, or minor structure break), → open short-term sell orders (scalp/intraday). Target: 4,186 → 4,152 USD. Stop Loss: above 4,285 USD. ➡️ This is a typical “liquidity sweep – technical reaction” scenario, capitalising on short-term sell-offs at high liquidity peaks. 2️⃣ Secondary Scenario – Buy back following the main trend after correction When the price corrects to the 4,186 – 4,152 USD zone or deeper to OB Deep 4,130 USD , and clear upward confirmation signals appear (strong rejection or minor BoS increasing again), → open buy orders in line with the main trend. Target: 4,230 → 4,275 USD. Stop Loss: below 4,120 USD. ➡️ Trend-following scenario – waiting for price correction to discount zones to accumulate in line with the larger trend. ⚠️ Risk Management Do not FOMO buy when the price is hitting the 4,275 – 4,281 USD zone. Prioritise short-term sells with clear confirmations or buys at lower OB zones. Keep light volume when trading against the main trend. Observe reactions at the 4,186 zone – this is the key level of the day. 💬 Conclusion Gold is at the peak of the current rise , short-term profit-taking pressure may appear around the 4,281 USD zone. If strong reactions occur, a correction to the 4,186 – 4,152 USD zone is reasonable for market rebalancing. The larger trend remains upward , so lower OB zones will be reasonable buy opportunities for the next wave. 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Sell reaction at 4,281 USD when reversal signals appear. Buy back at 4,186 – 4,152 – 4,130 USD when confirmation signals appear.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD – Buyers Reclaim Structure, Targeting Liquidity Zone🔍 Market Context After a strong Liquidity Sweep yesterday, gold has rebounded and formed consecutive Break of Structure (BoS) , confirming buyers are back in control. The price has now filled the Fair Value Gap (FVG 4,191 – 4,202) and is heading towards the Sell Liquidity Zone 4,237 – 4,240 USD — where many sell orders and stop-losses from previous short positions are concentrated. The current structure indicates strong upward momentum , however, the possibility of a pullback from this high liquidity area is noteworthy. 💎 Technical Analysis Liquidity Sweep: Completed, clearing liquidity below 4,070. FVG (Fair Value Gap): 4,191 – 4,202 → filled, confirming price balance. Sell Liquidity Zone: 4,237 – 4,240 → potential resistance area, likely strong reaction. OB Zone | Buy: 4,143 – 4,145 → nearby support, expected first reaction on price pullback. OB Deep | Buy: 4,110 – 4,115 → deep demand zone, confluence with Premium Zone 4,156 – 4,118. Overall Structure: The main trend remains bullish , with strong upward momentum but requires technical pullback for re-accumulation. 📈 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Main Scenario – Sell reaction at liquidity zone When the price approaches the Sell Liquidity Zone 4,237 – 4,240 USD , observe candle reactions (rejection, bearish engulfing). If confirmation signals appear, open short-term sell orders . Target: OB Buy Zone 4,145 → 4,110 USD. Stop Loss: above 4,245 USD. ➡️ This is a liquidity reaction setup, high probability when the market encounters resistance confluence with Fibonacci zone 0.786–1.0. 2️⃣ Alternative Scenario – Buy with trend from OB If the price pulls back to the OB Zone 4,143 – 4,145 USD and shows clear reaction (strong rejection or minor structure break), → consider opening buy orders with the main trend . Target: return to 4,200 → 4,235 USD. Stop Loss: below 4,130 USD. If the price drops further, the OB Deep Buy 4,110 – 4,115 USD will be the final “liquidity draw” zone for a new upward bounce. ⚠️ Risk Management Avoid FOMO buying at 4,200+ as it is near the liquidity resistance zone. Prioritize short-term selling at 4,237 if clear signals are present. When price pulls back to OB, wait for reaction before buying, do not bottom-fish early. 💬 Conclusion After completing the liquidity sweep, gold has confirmed a return to bullish structure with multiple consecutive BoS. Currently, the price is nearing the liquidity zone 4,237 USD – a short-term pullback is highly likely. The 4,145 – 4,110 USD area will be where buyers await reaction to accumulate orders and continue the medium-term uptrend. 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Short sell at 4,237 USD if reversal signals appear. Wait to buy at OB zone 4,145 – 4,110 USD when clear reaction occurs.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
XAUUSD | m15 frame gold drops sharply by 50 points ? 🔍 Market Context Gold prices have just set a historical peak (ATH GOLD) around the 4,180 USD region, following a steep upward trend over multiple sessions. Immediately after, the market witnessed the first break of upward structure (BoS) – a sign indicating that bullish momentum is weakening . Currently, prices are returning to fill the Fair Value Gap (FVG) at 4,125 – 4,145 USD , which is likely a liquidity rebalancing phase before prices choose the next direction. 💎 Technical Analysis ATH GOLD: 4,180 – 4,185 USD Fair Value Gap (FVG): 4,125 – 4,145 USD → an empty price area that needs to be filled. Order Block Buy Zone 1: 4,050 – 4,060 USD → the nearest demand zone, potentially creating the first technical reaction. Order Block Buy Zone 2: 3,980 – 3,985 USD → a deep demand zone with large liquidity confluence, likely to become the main "accumulation point." Overall Structure: After breaking the upward channel, the market is in a retracement phase – the medium-term structure remains bullish . 📈 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Short-term Sell Scenario – filling FVG and technical adjustment If prices continue to test the FVG 4,125 – 4,145 USD region without breaking through, → consider a short-term sell to catch the technical retracement phase. Target: the first OB Buy Zone 4,050 USD . Stop Loss: above 4,155 USD (to avoid being swept above the FVG peak). ➡️ This scenario is suitable for short-term traders following corrective waves – only enter when there is a clear reversal candle confirmation. 2️⃣ Trend-following Buy Scenario – catching the rebound from OB Zone If prices adjust to the 4,050 – 4,060 USD region, observe reaction signals such as Bullish Engulfing or strong Rejection . Upon confirmation, open a trend-following buy order . Target: the 4,125 → 4,145 USD region or the old peak of 4,180 USD. Stop Loss: below 4,030 USD. If the first OB zone doesn't hold, the 3,980 – 3,985 USD area will be an ideal zone for long-term "accumulation." ⚠️ Risk Management Avoid FOMO buying at high prices when the FVG is not yet filled. Prioritize trading at clear reaction zones (OB, FVG edge). Reduce volume when entering counter-trend orders to preserve capital. 💬 Conclusion After a steep rise, gold is entering a value rebalancing phase . The current market structure leans towards a short-term technical retracement before continuing the main upward trend. If the 4,050 – 4,060 USD region reacts well, gold may soon rebound and aim for the 4,150 – 4,180 USD region. 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Short-term sell when prices react at FVG. Wait to buy at OB Buy Zone when there is a confirmed upward signal.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptainVincent
GOLD|Surge: Targeting $4,100! Where to Buy Ahead of FOMC MinutesHello TradingView community! 🚀 Gold (XAU/USD) continues to demonstrate incredible strength, consistently breaking past old highs and forming a solid upward price channel. This robust rally is not only technically reinforced but is also awaiting a potential catalyst from today's crucial fundamental news. In this analysis, we will combine two key perspectives: a deep dive into the technical chart to identify optimal entry points, and an examination of the main fundamental event that could significantly impact Gold prices during the US session. 1. Fundamental Perspective: All Eyes on FOMC Minutes Today's market highlight, Wednesday, October 8, is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 PM ET. Why does this matter? The minutes provide a detailed record of the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting in September. Traders will scrutinize the text for any hints about the future interest rate path. Potential scenarios: "Dovish" Tone: If the minutes reveal that FED officials are concerned about economic growth and open to further rate cuts, the US Dollar may weaken. This would create a strong push for Gold (XAU/USD), potentially fueling the next price surge. "Hawkish" Tone: If the minutes emphasize that inflation remains a concern and the FED is not in a hurry to cut rates, the USD may see a short-term recovery, causing Gold to have a corrective dip. This event is a top catalyst for volatility. Our strategy is to prepare technical zones to capitalize on the market's reaction. 2. Technical Analysis: Detailed Trading Plan The bullish structure on the 2H timeframe is undeniable. Prices are creating a series of higher highs, confirmed by each "BoS" (Break of Structure), signaling that the Buyers are in full control. Here are the key zones to watch: Potential Buying Zones (Key Points): FVG Zone ($4,004): The nearest support is this Fair Value Gap, an area of price imbalance that the market often seeks to fill. Prices may retest this area before or during the news release. "Buy Break BoS" Zone ($3,981): This is the most recent swing high that has been broken. It has now turned from resistance into a crucial support level. This zone provides a solid entry point if prices correct a bit deeper. "Bullish Order Block" Zone ($3,951): This is the last major "stronghold" of the Buyers—a strong buy order block that initiated the latest push wave. This is an ideal area to look for buy orders if the market makes a strong liquidity sweep downward. Upside Targets: Short-term target (Scalping): $4,070 - This level coincides with the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Main target: "Liquidity Sell" Zone at $4,103. This is a large "liquidity pool" where the Sell side's stop-loss orders are likely concentrated. Smart money often drives prices towards such areas. Strategy Summary Main trend: Bullish. Core strategy: Look for "Buy the dip" opportunities at the key support zones mentioned. Critical timing: Be cautious around the FOMC Minutes release (18:00 UTC). Volatility can be high, and the market may whip in both directions to sweep stop-losses before following the main direction. Pro tip: Patience is key. Waiting for prices to pull back to a confirmed support zone will provide a much better Risk/Reward ratio than chasing the market at the highs. WHAT'S YOUR TAKE? How do you think Gold will react to today's FOMC minutes? And where are you looking to place your buy orders—at the FVG zone $4,004, the BoS level $3,981, or are you patiently waiting for the Order Block $3,951? Share your thoughts in the comments below! 👇 Don't forget to leave a Like 👍 and Follow the channel for the latest XAU/USD analyses!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD Near Record Highs: Key Data AheadGold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook – October 3, 2025 1. Macro & News Context Gold is holding near record highs, heading for its seventh consecutive weekly gain, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates and by concerns around the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Spot prices have recently tested the $3,890–3,900 region and are now consolidating around $3,860. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) – Typically scheduled for 08:30 ET / 12:30 UTC on the first Friday of the month, the September jobs report is likely to be delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown. Key event to watch today: ISM Services PMI (September) will be released at 10:00 ET / 14:00 UTC. Since ISM data is privately produced, it will be published regardless of the shutdown and may serve as the main volatility catalyst in today’s U.S. session. 【ISM】 Labor market signals: Challenger job cut data showed lower layoffs in September, but planned hiring at the lowest level since 2009, reinforcing a softer employment backdrop. Combined with the Fed’s recent 25 bps rate cut (to 4.00%–4.25%), this continues to support the bullish gold narrative. USD trend: The dollar has weakened broadly this week, aligning with market bets on further monetary easing. This backdrop provides an additional tailwind for gold. 2. Technical Landscape (H1 Chart) The attached chart highlights key technical zones and a completed Harmonic XABCD pattern on the 1H timeframe: Support levels: Near-term: $3,844–3,841 Deeper: $3,827 (intraday pivot), $3,792 (strong low) Strategic: $3,764–3,770 (Bullish Order Block) Resistance levels: Immediate: $3,865 Strong supply: $3,880–3,890 (Bearish Order Block) Extended target: $3,930–3,940 (Sell Scalping | Fibo zone) Momentum: After bouncing from point D of the harmonic structure, gold has been forming higher lows (HL). Price currently sits above the longer-term moving average and is testing the shorter-term average, suggesting a constructive short-term bias as long as supports hold. 3. Trade Scenarios Scenario 1 – Buy-the-dip (preferred bias) Entry zone: $3,844–3,841 Stop loss: Below $3,827 (safer: below $3,792) Targets: $3,865 (first take-profit) $3,880–3,890 (major supply) Stretch: $3,930–3,940 Rationale: Higher low formation, bullish macro backdrop, aligned with strong weekly uptrend. Scenario 2 – Countertrend short at resistance Trigger zone: $3,880–3,890 (Bearish OB) Confirmation: Rejection candles (H15–H1) such as wicks, engulfing, or failed breakout. Stop loss: Above $3,895–3,900 (or above $3,945 if price spikes into the $3,930–3,940 fib zone). Targets: $3,865 → $3,844 → $3,827 Rationale: Potential liquidity sweep ahead of ISM, with profit-taking likely near supply zones. Scenario 3 – Breakdown through support Trigger: 1H close below $3,841 Path: $3,827 → $3,792 (Strong Low) → $3,764–3,770 (Bullish OB) Rationale: Loss of intraday structure would flip bias short until major demand zones. 4. How to Trade Around Today’s Data If NFP is indeed delayed, the 08:30 ET / 12:30 UTC slot may bring limited volatility. Focus instead on the ISM Services PMI at 10:00 ET / 14:00 UTC, which could trigger sharp swings in both USD and gold. Adjust position sizing: Expect spread widening and slippage around the release. Reduce leverage or scale into positions. 5. Risk Management Limit risk per trade to 0.5–1% of account equity. Avoid chasing price once levels are tested; wait for H15–H1 candle closes for confirmation. Monitor the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Treasury yields – further dollar weakness would reinforce bullish gold setups. 🔑 Key Takeaway Gold remains structurally bullish in the broader trend, with immediate support at $3,841–3,844 critical to maintain upside momentum. Watch for reactions around $3,880–3,890 and $3,930–3,940. With NFP possibly delayed, the ISM Services PMI at 10:00 ET / 14:00 UTC will be today’s most important catalyst for directional moves.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD – 01/10 | US Government Shutdown Confirmed | Gold awaits🔎 Context & News US Politics : The US government officially shut down after the Senate failed to pass the federal funding bill. A major political risk catalyst, triggering safe-haven flows into Gold. FED : Probability of a -25bps rate cut in October rises to 96.2% → almost certain. Key Events Today (ET / UTC) : • ADP Employment Change: 08:15 ET / 12:15 UTC • ISM Manufacturing PMI: 10:00 ET / 14:00 UTC → Both will be crucial data points that may shake Dollar and Gold. 📌 Summary : US politics + FED easing = Gold remains supported, but ADP & ISM tonight could spark strong volatility in the US session. 📈 Technical Analysis (H1) Main Trend : Bullish after multiple BoS. EMA : EMA 34 > EMA 89 → bullish momentum intact. Resistance : 3,897 – 3,907 (Sell scalp – Fibo 0.5–0.618). 3,920 – 3,921 (Liquidity / ATH test). Support : 3,872 – 3,876 (old high retest). 3,833 – 3,841 (OB zone). 3,814 – 3,822 (deep Support Zone – losing this shifts bias). 🎯 Trade Plan ✅ Buy (trend priority) Buy Zone 1 : 3,872 – 3,876 • SL: 3,869 • TP: 3,897 → 3,907 → 3,920 Buy Zone 2 (OB) : 3,833 – 3,841 • SL: 3,826 • TP: 3,872 → 3,897 → 3,907 Buy Zone 3 (Deep Support) : 3,814 – 3,822 • SL: 3,808 • TP: 3,841 → 3,872 → 3,897 ⚡ Sell (short scalps only – lower RR) Sell Zone 1 : 3,897 – 3,907 • SL: 3,912 • TP: 3,885 → 3,876 → 3,841 Sell Zone 2 (ATH sweep) : 3,920 – 3,921 • SL: 3,925 • TP: 3,907 → 3,885 → 3,876 📝 Conclusion Gold remains strongly supported by the US government shutdown + FED rate cut expectations. Strategy today: Prioritize Buy at support; Sell only for short scalps around 3,907 – 3,921. ⚠️ Watch out: ADP & ISM tonight may trigger unexpected volatility → manage risk carefully and move SL to BE after TP1. 📢 If you find this Captain’s Log useful, don’t forget to Follow Captain Vincent ⚓ for the latest updates. 💬 What do you think, crew? Will Gold break ATH 3,920 right after ADP & ISM tonight?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
H1 bullish momentum intact | Buy 3,792–3,765, target 3,821🟡 XAU/USD – 29/09/2025 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – Structure & Trend H1 continues to print consecutive BoS → bullish trend sustained. Price broke the long-term downtrend line and surged to new highs. EMA 34 & EMA 89 both pointing up and below price → confirming short-to-mid-term bullish momentum. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Key Zones Storm Breaker (Sell Zone / ATH test) : 3,818 – 3,821 Golden Harbor (FVG – Buy Zone) : 3,792 – 3,779 OB Harbor 1 : 3,772 – 3,765 OB Harbor 2 (deeper) : 3,731 – 3,724 Core Idea: 3,792 – 3,765 is the main support “cushion” for trend-follow Buys; 3,818 – 3,821 is the wave edge where profit-taking may occur. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan ✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – main priority) Buy Zone 1 – FVG (3,792 – 3,779) Entry: 3,792 – 3,779 SL: 3,765 TP: 3,805 – 3,818 – 3,821+ Buy Zone 2 – OB1 (3,772 – 3,765) Entry: 3,772 – 3,765 SL: 3,758 (below 3,765) TP: 3,792 – 3,805 – 3,818 – 3,821 Buy Zone 3 – OB2 deep (3,731 – 3,724) Entry: 3,731 – 3,724 SL: 3,714 TP: 3,745 – 3,765 – 3,792 – 3,805 ⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL – scalp only) Sell Zone – Storm Breaker (3,818 – 3,821) Entry: 3,818 – 3,821 SL: 3,828 TP: 3,805 – 3,796 – 3,792 Breakdown Short (conditional) Only consider Short if H1 closes below 3,724 SL: 3,735 TP: 3,710 – 3,700 – 3,690 ⚓ Captain’s Note “The Golden sails remain filled after consecutive BoS . Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,792 → 3,765) is the anchor dock to board in trend’s direction. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,818 – 3,821) may trigger profit-taking waves – only go Quick Boarding 🚤 if clear signals appear. If the tide drags below 3,724, let the ship retreat to OB2 to gather strength before resuming the northbound voyage.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD – Captain Vincent Weekly Plan🔎 Captain’s Log – Context 📈 Main Trend : Strong uptrend after BoS. 📊 Price moving sideways within the rising channel, staying below Weak High 3674 . 📌 EMA 50 > EMA 200 → bullish trend remains solid. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Golden Harbor (BUY – Main Priority) 🎯 Entry: FVG Dock: 3602 – 3593 FVG Deep: 3567 – 3560 OB Harbor: 3535 – 3540 ⛔ SL: below 3520 ✅ TP1: 3674 (sweep Weak High) ✅ TP2: 3720 – 3740 2️⃣ Quick Boarding (Short-term SELL – Counter-trend) Condition: If price breaks 3674 first → watch for false break. 🎯 Entry: 3670 – 3680 ✅ TP: back to 3602 – 3567 ⚠️ Note : scalp only, don’t hold long. 3️⃣ Storm Breaker Alert (Bearish Scenario) If 3535 breaks → short-term uptrend invalidated. 🎯 Bearish target: 3480 – 3500 Captain’s Note ⚓ “The golden sail still catches the wind after BoS, leading the captain and crew on the bullish tide. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3593 – 3560 – 3535) remains the preferred docking point to load cargo and continue the voyage. Quick Boarding 🚤 at Storm Breaker 🌊 (3670 – 3680) is only a short ride when the ship sweeps liquidity at Weak High 3674 . Should 3535 break, the ship might be dragged toward 3480 – 3500, but as long as it anchors at Golden Harbor, the grand journey still heads north toward 3720+.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
Gold - Caution ahead of US PPI report | Priority on Sell setups🟡 XAU/USD – 10/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – Market Context US 10-year bond yields rebound, signaling the market is awaiting key inflation data. At 07:30, US PPI report will be released – a crucial figure that could strongly influence FED rate expectations. Investors are also eyeing US CPI in the coming days to assess the inflation outlook. The US Supreme Court accepted Trump’s appeal, but this news has not yet had a notable impact on Gold. ⏩ Captain’s Summary: Ahead of inflation data, Gold often tends to correct lower due to cautious sentiment. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis Storm Breaker (Key Resistance): Bearish OB: 3654 – 3660 (short-term upper cap) ATH Watchtower: 3700 – 3702 (Sell Zone – possible new ATH test) Golden Harbor (Strong Support): Buy Zone: 3601 – 3602 OB Dock: 3582 – 3585 Currently, price is around 3640 – 3645, after a technical rebound from support. High probability that Gold will retest nearby resistance before a downward correction. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios ⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL – Daily Priority) Entry 1: 3654 – 3660 SL: 3668 TP: 3654 → 3650 → 3618 → 3610 Entry 2 – ATH Test: 3701 – 3703 SL: 3711 TP: 3688 → 3675 → 3665 → 365x ✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Only at deep support) Buy Zone: 3601 – 3603 SL: 3592 TP: 3610 → 3620 → 3630 ⚓ Captain’s Note “The golden ship faces turbulent seas today as it sails near Storm Breaker 🌊 (3654 – 3660) . Before the fierce winds called US PPI , sailors should prioritize dropping anchor with short-term SELL positions at resistance. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3601 – 3603) remains a safe haven below, but only when the ship corrects deeply should it dock. On this voyage, Quick Boarding 🚤 is for scalp maneuvers, while the main current is still steered by the stormy waves of inflation.”
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptainVincent
Captain Vincent | Observing JPY & USD - Buy remains dominant - 🟡 XAU/USD – GOLD 08/09 Observing JPY & USD | Buy remains dominant 🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context This morning, no new major updates. Tonight’s US session (08/09) will also not release any significant data. The latest market impact came from Japanese PM S. Ishiba’s resignation , which pressured JPY lower and slightly lifted the Dollar. However, Gold only made a small correction and held steady. ➡️ Captain’s Summary: Dollar and JPY now have only indirect influence, not enough to push Gold into deep declines. The main trend remains supported for further upside. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis Captain’s Shield (Main Support) : Golden Harbor OB: 3542 – 3549 Main Buy Zone: 3549 – 3551 Liquidity Dock: 3573 – 3575 Storm Breaker (Resistance) : Quick Boarding: 3602 – 3604 (Short-term Sell scalp) Storm Breaker Peak: 3632 – 3634 (Sell zone – potential new ATH) ⏩ Price structure still maintains a bullish trend (continuous BOS ). Corrections mainly serve to attract liquidity before breaking into higher resistance zones. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios ✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Priority) Buy Zone: 3549 – 3551 | SL: 3542 | TP: 3553 → 3557 → 3560 → 3563 → 35xx Liquidity Dock : 3573 – 3575 | SL: 3565 | TP: 3578 → 3581 → 3583 → 35xx ⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Short-term) Entry: 3602 – 3604 SL: 3610 TP: 3600 → 3597 → 3594 → 3591 → 3588 → 35xx 🌊 Storm Breaker (SELL Zone – New ATH) Entry: 3632 – 3634 SL: 3640 TP: 3629 → 3625 → 3623 → 3619 → 361x ⚓ Captain’s Note “The Golden ship stays steady as the seas remain calm this morning, with no major news waves. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3549 – 3551) along with OB around 3542 is a safe haven for sailors following the bullish tide. Liquidity Dock ⚓ (3573 – 3575) is only a temporary anchor point before bullish winds carry the ship further. Quick Boarding 🚤 (3602 – 3604) is for those seeking short-term waves. And if the ship reaches Storm Breaker 🌊 (3632 – 3634) , that could mark a new peak – but the greater journey is still northward with the bullish sails filled with wind.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
CaptainVincent | Gold in a tug-of-war amid new geopolitical bloc1. News Waves 🌍 At a 2-day summit in Shanghai, Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping announced that India and China will become development partners instead of rivals. The summit also included Russia and four Central Asian countries, aiming to establish a Global South bloc to counterbalance the U.S. and the West. 👉 This highlights a geopolitical power shift, raising concerns over global polarization → gold maintains its safe-haven appeal. 2. Technical Outlook ⚙️ On the H2 chart, gold has printed Higher Highs after its recent strong breakout. Storm Breaker 🌊 (Sell Zone 3511 – 3518): strong resistance, potential supply if retested. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Buy Zone 3450 – 3448): confluence of FVG + Fibonacci 0.5/0.618 , key support for a rebound. Main trend: gold may continue ranging within 3450 – 3510 before choosing a major direction. 3. Captain Vincent’s Map – Trade Scenarios 🪙 🔻 Storm Breaker 🌊 (SELL Reaction) Entry: 3511 – 3508 SL: 3518 TP: 3505 → 3500 → 3497 → 349x → 348x 🏝️ Golden Harbor (BUY Zone – strong support) Entry: 3450 – 3448 SL: 3440 TP: 3453 → 3456 → 3459 → 3462 → 346x 4. Captain’s Note ⚓ “Political news continues to stir the gold sea 🌊. Bears are waiting at Storm Breaker 3511 , but the safe harbor remains Golden Harbor 3450 – 3448 . In an unpredictable environment, prioritize short-term SELL setups to ride with safe-haven flows, instead of recklessly challenging the rough waves.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD – Gold holds 3400, waiting for breakout or pullback?⚓️ Captain Vincent – Gold Plan XAU/USD FED turns dovish, gold tests a new Storm Breaker 1. News Waves 🌍 FED – Waller: “Tariffs are a tax and do not increase inflation. I’m back with the ‘transitory’ team on inflation.” 👉 A clear signal supporting a 25bps rate cut in September , with the possibility of 1–2 more cuts in the next 3–6 months. U.S. Senate: preparing hearings for the new FED nominee S. Miran on September 4 → political & monetary spotlight. Tonight: markets await PCE data , the FED’s preferred inflation gauge. ➡️ Summary: FED leans dovish, supporting gold in the medium term. But in the short term, price still faces profit-taking pressure near resistance. 2. Technical Outlook ⚙️ On H1, gold has been forming consecutive bullish BOS and has broken above 3,400. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Buy Zone 3375 – 3373): large volume accumulation, confluence with FVG → strong entry if price retraces. Storm Breaker 🌊 (Sell Zone 3432 – 343x): near previous ATH, likely to face heavy supply if tested. Key levels: 3375 = critical anchor support. 3438 = target resistance if gold continues higher. 3. Captain Vincent’s Map – Trade Scenarios 🪙 🔺 Golden Harbor 🏝️ (BUY Zone – Priority) Entry: 3375 – 3373 SL: 3365 TP: 3378 → 3381 → 3384 → 3387 → 33xx 🔻 Storm Breaker 🌊 (SELL Zone – previous ATH reaction) Entry: 3432 – 343x SL: 3442 TP: 3428 → 3425 → 3423 → 3420 → 33xx 4. Captain’s Note ⚓ “The gold ship has crossed 3400, but Storm Breaker 🌊 343x remains a tough challenge. If corrective waves appear, be patient at Golden Harbor 🏝️ to board the journey toward a more bullish September.”
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CaptainVincent
Gold Plan M15 – Captain VincentContext: The M15 chart shows price currently sitting right at the Premium Supply zone — a level that has repeatedly held and triggered bullish reactions in the past. However, with the short-term trend leaning bearish, this zone may no longer serve as a strong “shield.” Today’s focus: Sell in line with the main downtrend at the nearest resistance zone. Buy from deeper levels if price breaks support and forms an FVG gap below. 1. Sell Zone – Premium Defense 🛡️ Entry: 3345 – 3347 SL: 3351 TP: 3343 → 3340 → 3337 → 3333 → 33xx Meaning: A short-term resistance area, ideal for selling in line with the bearish momentum. 2. Buy Setup – Hidden FVG ⚓ Entry: Will wait at the lower FVG zone (to be updated once price approaches). Meaning: If price breaks through the current Supply zone, shift bias to Buy at the lower FVG, taking advantage of a technical rebound. Scenarios for today: If price retests 3345 – 3347 → Sell with the trend. If price breaks the Premium Supply zone → Watch for rebound strength and prepare to Buy at the lower FVG. If neither zone is reached → Stay out, wait for a clear signal. Captain’s Note: “Lower timeframes like M15 are often stormy seas 🌊. Keep discipline: Sell only at the right zones, Buy only at the right levels, and never FOMO in the middle of the ocean. 🏴‍☠️”
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CaptainVincent