Get started

Charting

$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 24, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 24, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Month-end positioning: Flows light as traders prep for Thursday’s 🚩 GDP + Jobless Claims. 💻 Mega-cap drift: Tech leadership remains central with $AAPL/ NASDAQ:NVDA volatility post-Powell. 💵 Rates + housing: Home affordability narrative continues to weigh on broader risk tone. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — New Home Sales (Aug) ⏰ 4:10 PM — San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #housing #Powell #economy #Dollar #bonds #megacaps
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 23, 2025 🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 23, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Post-Fed digestion: Equities and bonds still recalibrating after last week’s SEP + Powell tone. 💻 Mega-cap watch: Tech + AI flows continue to drive AMEX:XLK sentiment. 🌐 Central bank chatter: A busy Fed speaker slate gives extra volatility into month-end. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 9:00 AM — Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech ⏰ 🚩 9:45 AM — S&P Global Flash PMIs (Sep) — Services & Manufacturing ⏰ 10:00 AM — Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech ⏰ 🚩 12:35 PM — Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Powell #Fed #PMI #economy #Dollar #bonds #megacaps
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 22 → Sept 26, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 22 → Sept 26, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Post-Fed positioning: Traders continue to recalibrate after last week’s cut + SEP; rates & USD tone drive risk. 💻 Mega-cap watch: NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:NVDA guidance/AI chatter keeps AMEX:XLK leadership in focus. 🛢️ Energy & FX: Oil swings and a firm dollar remain cross-asset headwinds. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) Tue 9/23 ⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Global Flash PMIs (Sep) (Mfg & Services). Wed 9/24 ⏰ 10:00 AM — New Home Sales (Aug). Thu 9/25 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly). ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — GDP (Q2, Third Estimate). ⏰ 8:30 AM — Durable Goods Orders (Aug). ⏰ 10:00 AM — Existing Home Sales (Aug). Fri 9/26 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Personal Income & Outlays (Aug) incl. PCE/Core PCE. ⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Sep). ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PCE #GDP #PMI #joblessclaims #housing #consumer #Fed #Dollar #oil #megacaps
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 19, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 19, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Week-end positioning: Traders de-risk after a heavy Fed + macro week; watch flows into bonds and equities. 💬 Consumer & labor narrative: Markets digest Fed messaging alongside claims + LEI signals. 🌐 Global spillover: Europe and Asia equities feed into U.S. tone with light U.S. catalysts on deck. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 10:00 AM — State Employment & Unemployment (Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #labor #economy #bonds #Dollar #risk
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 18, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 18, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Post-Fed digestion: Markets recalibrate after Wednesday’s 🚩 FOMC decision + Powell press conference. 💵 Dollar & yields watch: FX and Treasury moves reflect how traders interpret the Fed’s updated path. 💻 Tech + growth trade: Positioning in AMEX:XLK and high-beta names remains key as rates reset. 🛢️ Energy chatter: Oil volatility keeps AMEX:XLE and inflation hedges in focus. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Sep) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — Conference Board Leading Economic Index (Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #joblessclaims #economy #Dollar #bonds #tech #oil
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 17, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 17, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Fed Day: All eyes on the FOMC decision + Powell press conference — this will lock in the September rate path. 📉 Positioning risk: Funds lightened up into Tuesday’s Retail Sales; volatility likely post-Fed. 💻 Tech leadership in focus: NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , and AI plays driving AMEX:XLK flows ahead of macro. 🛢️ Crude swings: Energy price stability remains an inflation sentiment wildcard. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Housing Starts & Building Permits (Aug) ⏰ 10:30 AM — EIA Petroleum Status Report ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — FOMC Policy Decision + SEP (dot plot) ⏰ 🚩 2:30 PM — Powell Press Conference ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #FOMC #Powell #Fed #housing #energy #bonds #Dollar #megacaps
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 16, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 16, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Pre-Fed jitters: Traders square positions one day before Wednesday’s 🚩 FOMC decision + Powell presser. 💻 Mega-cap flows: Post-Apple launch chatter and AI sector sentiment keep AMEX:XLK leadership in play. 🛢️ Energy watch: Crude swings remain a headline driver for inflation hedges and $XLE. 💵 Dollar steady: FX tone reflects markets bracing for Fed clarity mid-week. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Aug) ⏰ 9:15 AM — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Business Inventories (Jul) ⏰ 10:00 AM — NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #RetailSales #Fed #Powell #economy #Dollar #bonds #oil #AAPL #megacaps
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 15 → Sept 19, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 15 → Sept 19, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🌐 Global central bank ripple: ECB’s Thursday decision sets tone for USD and cross-asset flows into Fed week. 📉 Positioning tight: After CPI/PPI last week, funds are leaning light into Wednesday’s Fed — volatility risk high. 🍏 Mega-cap overhang: Apple supply chain chatter + tech sector leadership in focus post-launch event. 💵 Dollar + oil watch: Stronger dollar and stubborn crude prices remain headline risk for equities. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) Tue 9/16 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Aug) Wed 9/17 ⏰ 8:30 AM — Housing Starts & Building Permits (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — FOMC Policy Decision + SEP (dot plot) ⏰ 🚩 2:30 PM — Powell Press Conference Thu 9/18 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Sep) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — Conference Board Leading Economic Index (Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #FOMC #Powell #Fed #RetailSales #jobs #economy #bonds #Dollar #oil #AAPL #megacaps
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 12, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 12, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Markets digest 🚩 CPI + ECB shocks — Friday closes the week with sentiment checks. 🚩 Consumer mood in focus: UMich prelim survey drives inflation expectations + spending tone. 📦 Trade & price gauges: Import/export prices fill in the inflation picture post-CPI/PPI. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Import & Export Prices (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Sept) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #UMich #inflation #Fed #consumer #bonds #economy
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 11, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 11, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 CPI Day: August Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM — the main macro print of the week. 🚩 ECB Decision: 8:15 AM ET — Europe’s call on rates adds global cross-asset volatility. 📉 Labor + growth mix: Jobless claims alongside CPI sharpen the Fed outlook. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ECB Rate Decision ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Consumer Price Index (CPI, Aug) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #CPI #ECB #inflation #Fed #jobs #bonds #economy
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 10, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 10, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 PPI Hits: August Producer Price Index at 8:30 AM — critical input for inflation trend into CPI (Thu). 📈 Yields in focus: Bond market watching supply + inflation mix; $TLT/ TVC:TNX extra sensitive. 💬 Fed chatter: Post-Apple event, markets shift back to Fed data dependency into next week’s FOMC. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index (PPI, Aug) ⏰ 7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly) ⏰ 10:30 AM — EIA Petroleum Status Report ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PPI #inflation #Fed #bonds #energy #economy
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 9, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 9, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Small Biz Pulse: NFIB report before the open — insight into hiring & inflation expectations. 🍏 Apple Mega-Cap Event: 1 PM ET — expected iPhone 17 lineup, Apple Watch, AirPods updates. Mega-cap headline risk for NASDAQ:AAPL and $XLK. 📉 Tape Watch: Traders positioning ahead of 🚩 PPI (Wed) and 🚩 CPI (Thu). 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 6:00 AM — NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Inventories (Jul, rev.) ⏰ 🍏 1:00 PM — Apple Product Launch Event ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #AAPL #AppleEvent #NFIB #inflation #tech #MegaCap
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 5, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 5, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Jobs Friday = make or break. Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment, and wages will lock in Fed expectations into September. 📉 Positioning light ahead of NFP — futures choppy as traders square books. 💬 Consumer sentiment wraps the week — expectations on inflation and spending will color the tape. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Unemployment Rate (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Average Hourly Earnings (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Trade (Jul) ⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #NFP #jobs #labor #Fed #economy #bonds #Dollar
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 4, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 4, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Markets on edge after ADP + Beige Book — traders want to see if Thursday’s labor + growth data confirm a slowdown. 🏦 Treasury supply + Fed tone continue to steer $TLT/$TNX. ⚙️ Productivity & costs add another layer to the inflation debate. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Trade Balance (Jul) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (Q2, rev.) ⏰ 11:00 AM — Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #joblessclaims #labor #economy #bonds
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 3, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🏦 Traders bracing for a labor + Fed double header — ADP jobs and the Beige Book will steer rate-cut odds into Friday’s NFP. 📉 Stocks drifted Tuesday post-JOLTS miss — markets looking for confirmation of labor cooling. 💻 Tech earnings rotation continues — volatility in AMEX:XLK spilling into broader tape. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications ⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ADP Employment Report (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — ISM Services PMI (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — Fed Beige Book ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #ADP #BeigeBook #Fed #labor #ISM #bonds #economy
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Aug 29, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Aug 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🔥 Fed’s favorite inflation gauge hits: PCE arrives just as markets digest Powell’s Jackson Hole tone. 💵 Consumer under the microscope: Spending & income data reveal demand strength heading into fall. 🏭 Regional PMI wrap: Chicago PMI closes out August with a manufacturing pulse check. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — PCE Price Index (Jul) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Personal Income & Outlays (Jul) ⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PCE #inflation #Fed #bonds #economy #PMI #consumerconfidence
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Aug 28, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Aug 28, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🏔️ Jackson Hole aftershocks: Markets still digest Powell’s stance; cut odds for September in focus. 📉 GDP revision risk: Growth momentum under the microscope with Q2 update. 🛠️ Labor market cooling? Jobless claims set the tone into Friday’s PCE. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly). ⏰ 8:30 AM — GDP (Q2, 2nd Estimate). ⏰ 11:00 AM — Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug). ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #GDP #joblessclaims #JacksonHole #bonds #economy
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Aug 27, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Aug 27, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🇺🇸➡️🇮🇳 U.S. slaps 50% tariffs on Indian goods (textiles, gems, leather, machinery) starting today — inflation & trade ripple risk. 💻 Earnings spotlight: Nvidia, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, Alibaba reporting this week → tech volatility in focus. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ All Day — U.S. Treasury Auctions (10-year note, 5-year note + FRN). ⏰ 11:45 AM — Richmond Fed Pres. Tom Barkin speaks. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #tariffs #India #Treasury #earnings #tech #Nvidia
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Tuesday, August 26, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for Tuesday, August 26, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines Post-Jackson Hole digestion 🏔️ → markets recalibrate. Traders continue parsing Powell’s keynote; the path of cuts into September remains the dominant driver for $SPY/$TLT/$DXY. Durables in focus ✈️📦. Core capital goods orders (non-defense ex-air) are the cleanest read on business investment; softness fuels cut odds, strength = “higher-for-longer.” Housing affordability squeeze 🏠. Case-Shiller and pending sales provide a 2-sided look at price momentum vs. turnover; AMEX:XHB and AMEX:XLY key tickers. Consumer mood check 🛒😬. Conference Board Confidence frames labor market sentiment and forward spending intentions. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 8:30 AM — Durable Goods Orders (Jul) Consensus: ~-0.3% headline; core orders expected flat/slightly positive. Why it matters: Big-ticket spending → business cycle pulse. 9:00 AM — S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jun) Prior: +6.0% y/y. Why it matters: Tracks housing inflation pressure; feeds into consumer wealth effect. 10:00 AM — Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug) Prior: 100.3. Why it matters: Labor perceptions & spending intentions → AMEX:XLY sentiment. 10:00 AM — Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (Aug) Regional check on factory activity; complements durables. 10:00 AM — Pending Home Sales (Jul) Prior: -4.1% m/m. Why it matters: Leading indicator of housing turnover; affordability squeeze. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #durablegoods #housing #consumerconfidence #Fed #DXY #TLT
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 25 – 29, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 25 – 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Themes Jackson Hole aftermath 🏔️ Powell’s Friday keynote sets the tone. Markets will trade on whether he opened the door to a September cut or stuck to a cautious stance. Expect chop in AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:TLT , TVC:DXY as traders recalibrate. Inflation & Jobs 🔥💼 Fresh PCE inflation and jobless claims anchor the week. Any upside surprise revives “higher-for-longer”; softness = fuel for cut odds. Retail earnings wrap 🛒 With $WMT/$TGT/ NYSE:HD behind us, discounters and specialty retailers close the season. AMEX:XRT stays a barometer of consumer resilience. Housing & confidence 🏠📉 Pending Home Sales + Conference Board Confidence will test sentiment in an affordability squeeze backdrop. Watch AMEX:XHB , $XLY. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 📅 Monday, Aug 25 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30 AM) – broad growth pulse. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30 AM) – regional check. 📅 Tuesday, Aug 26 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM) – capex signal; core ex-transport key. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:00 AM) – factory health in Mid-Atlantic. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM) – housing momentum. Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM) – labor intentions, rate sentiment. 📅 Wednesday, Aug 27 MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 AM) – weekly mortgage pulse. Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM) – trade, inventories, wholesale. Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM) – affordability and turnover test. Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM) – $CL_F/ AMEX:XLE driver. 📅 Thursday, Aug 28 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM) – labor cooling watch. GDP (2nd Estimate, Q2) (8:30 AM) – growth momentum, revisions matter. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11:00 AM) – regional survey. 📅 Friday, Aug 29 PCE Price Index (Jul, 8:30 AM) – Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Personal Income & Outlays (8:30 AM) – consumer demand and savings rates. Chicago PMI (9:45 AM) – manufacturing signal ahead of ISM next week. UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, 10:00 AM) – inflation expectations track. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #SPY #SPX #Fed #PCE #GDP #Housing #Confidence #Energy #Bonds #Dollar
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Friday, August 22, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for Friday, August 22, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News Powell’s Jackson Hole keynote is the main event (10:00 AM ET). Markets want clarity on the path to cuts and any framework tweaks; the Fed’s own calendar lists the speech and KC Fed confirms the Aug 21–23 agenda. $SPY/$TLT/ TVC:DXY are the most sensitive. Risk tone turned cautious into the speech. Stocks faded Thursday as traders de-risked ahead of Powell; positioning is tight and headline-sensitive. Dollar firm / gold steady into Jackson Hole. Classic pre-keynote safety bid; futures price a high probability of a September cut, keeping two-way risk for rates and equities. Global cues: Japan CPI lands overnight; UK retail sales postponed. Japan’s July inflation print hits before U.S. cash open; the U.K.’s July retail sales were pushed to Sep 5, trimming one macro catalyst from the tape. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 10:00 AM — Fed Chair Powell @ Jackson Hole (Keynote). Why it matters: Sets near-term curve path and risk appetite; watch $TLT/ TVC:TNX and TVC:DXY → AMEX:SPY reaction. 1:00 PM — Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count. Why it matters: Energy activity → supply expectations → $CL_F/ AMEX:XLE ; persistent rig drift can nudge inflation expectations. (Released weekly at noon CT/1 PM ET.) Overnight — Japan CPI (Jul). Why it matters: Yen rates and global FX spillovers; a surprise could ripple into U.S. risk before the keynote. All day — Jackson Hole Symposium continues. Why it matters: Secondary speakers can color post-Powell reaction as positioning resets. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #JacksonHole #Powell #DXY #TLT #Gold #Energy #RigCount
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Thursday, August 21, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for Thursday, August 21, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines Tech jitters spill as Jackson Hole kicks off. Global equities slipped following a tech sell‑off driven by concerns over U.S. intervention in chipmakers, while traders await Fed Chair Powell’s policy cues. AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:TLT under pressure as rate‑cut expectations waver. Sony hikes PS5 prices amid tariffs. Effective August 21, PlayStation 5 models in the U.S. see a $50 price increase—tariff impact spilling into consumer electronics. Raises inflation whispers amid already elevated tech cost narrative. Healthcare activism heats up. Boards at firms like Medtronic, Pfizer, and Novo Nordisk shift under investor pressure—governance shake‑ups adding a layer of corporate risk and potential M&A signals. ⏱ Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 10:00 AM — Advance Services Report (Q2) (Census bureau). Quarterly weight of service economy—strong print supports Pro side of markets; weak could dial back rate‑cut hopes. 10:00 AM — Summer Youth Labor Force Survey (Annual). Goes with job‑market narrative from July—may tweak Fed sentiment depending on labor softening/stability. Jackson Hole Symposium begins. Markets now fully focused on Powell; tone could make or break short‑term equity and bond positions. ⚠ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #Fed #JacksonHole #SPY #SPX #TLT #Sony #tech #tariffs #services #labor #activism #healthcare
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Wednesday, August 20, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / CBOE:SPX Scenarios for Wednesday, August 20, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News Jackson Hole in focus; dollar firms. Traders lean ~84% odds of a 25bp cut in September; watch TVC:DXY vs. $SPY/ NASDAQ:TLT as Powell risk approaches. Retail baton passes from HD to LOW/TGT. After HD’s hold-guidance rally, attention shifts to Lowe’s/Target for read-throughs on DIY vs. pro spend and tariff pass-through. Risk tone jittery into minutes. Tech led a pullback Tuesday; positioning lightens ahead of Fed minutes and Jackson Hole. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly). Prior: +10.9% w/w (8/13). Why it matters: housing demand pulse → rates/affordability → AMEX:XHB and growth tone. 10:30 AM — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status. Prior crude change: +3.036M bbl. Why it matters: oil balance → gasoline/diesel → inflation & AMEX:XLE path. 1:00 PM — U.S. 20-Year Treasury Auction. Typical close: 1:00 ET; also 17-week bill today. Why it matters: term-premium & risk appetite; tails/stop-throughs can shake $TLT/$TNX. 2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (July 29–30). Watch for: depth of cut debate, tariffs → inflation, labor cooling. Why it matters: reprices path-of-rates across curve and equities. Earnings (before open): LOW, TGT, TJX, ADI (+ others). Why it matters: U.S. consumer & capex reads; category mix shifts. Lowe’s call 9:00 AM. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #FOMCMinutes #JacksonHole #DXY #TLT #XLE #LOW #TGT #TJX #ADI
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao