COINBASE Can catapult above $300 any time.Coinbase Global (COIN) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up pattern since the October 27 2023 bottom. Its long-term Support level is the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which was most recently tested on May 14 2024 and held.
Just like the February 07 (near) test, this is technically the latest Higher Low of the Channel Up. The break-out above the Falling Wedge that followed, similar to the February bottom, has found Support on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which held even during Friday's dramatic pull-back.
With the Sine Waves accurately depicting COIN's all recent bottoms (Higher Lows) and tops (Higher Highs), they clearly show that we are past the latest bottom and have already started the new Bullish Leg to a Higher High.
The previous one was priced just above the 1.786 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, we remain bullish on this stock, setting a new price Target at $380.00 (Fib 1.786), which can be achieved by mid-July.
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Coinbasesignals
COINBASE Bottomed and turning bullish for 2 months.Coinbase (COIN) completed a 2-day green streak following a Lower Low within the Falling Wedge, which is technically the Bearish Leg of the 6-month Channel Up pattern that started on the October 27 2023 Low.
By tomorrow the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) would have crossed below the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), forming a Bearish Cross, which is a pattern last seen on February 02 2024. The stock bottomed 2 days later, above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently at.
In contrast to the stocks Lower Lows, the 4H RSI formed Higher Lows, which is a Bullish Divergence, the same kind of pattern it completed on February 05. Technically, once it breaks above the 4H MA50 again, we will have a confirmed Bullish Leg (dotted) at its very start. The last one reached the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, so we are targeting at least $370.00 on this run.
It is worth noting that there is a high degree of consistency in the frequency on the Highs and Lows of the Channel Up, which is clearly shown by the Sine Waves on this chart.
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COINBASE around the 1D MA50 but the MA100 more likely to supportCoinbase Global (COIN) rose as high as our last target (March 05, see chart below) and has been pulling back since:
The best way to view this short-term correction is on the diverging Channel Up (blue) which started on the October 27 2023 bottom. As with the longer term Channel Up, it consolidates considerably below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), with the last (February 05 2024) Low finding support just above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
As a result we expect a Higher Low for the diverging Channel Up close to 185.00, before start seeing the new Bullish Leg. In addition, we need to see the 1D RSI touching its 2-year Support Zone, which usually tends to touch it twice during an Accumulation Phase. The price also tends to Double Bottom. This means that there will be time most likely (always account for how strongly the Bitcoin Halving might do to the market) to identify the new bottom and most optimal buy entry based on the conditions above.
We are willing to buy there for the Bullish Leg that will follow and target $370.00, which is the top of the long-term Fibonacci Channel. Note that in case of a break-out, the price can even go as high as the 2.0 (blue) Fibonacci extension ($440.00), which is around the Fib level that the last two Higher Highs where priced.
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COINBASE rallying as it should since our last call. What's next?Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) has started an amazing rally following our February 05 buy signal (see chart below) and is headed towards the $285.00 Target:
We are modifying the Channel Up to make contact with all three Higher Lows as the Higher Highs comfortably fit the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel retracement level. As you can see all previous Higher Highs have been formed with a 1D candle closing below the 0.786 Fib and right now the price is sitting exactly on that level.
This indicates that as long as the stock doesn't clos a 1D candle above it, we may see one last short-term pull-back towards the 0.5 Fib before eventually reaching the $285.00 Target. If however a 1D candle does close above the 0.786 Fib, we do expect the current rally to continue straight to the Target.
Notice at the same time the 1D RSI entering the 2023 Resistance Zone. This is an unnoticed key dynamic as the previous Higher Highs were priced after the RSI got rejected on the Resistance Zone and it entered back blow the 70.00 overbought barrier. Keep an eye for a timely exit.
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Navigating Sympathy Plays: A Guide to Trading BITCOIN & COINBASE** Introduction **
Sympathy trading, a strategic approach rooted in both technical and fundamental analysis, capitalizes on correlated movements between assets to uncover profitable opportunities. In this article, we delve into the nuanced realm of sympathy trading using Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) as case studies, exploring how a blend of technical and fundamental analysis can enhance trading strategies.
** Understanding Sympathy Trading **
Sympathy trading hinges on discerning and exploiting the symbiotic relationship between correlated assets. It involves analyzing both technical indicators and fundamental factors to identify potential entry and exit points, as well as underlying drivers influencing price movements.
** BTCUSD and COIN: A Sympathetic Relationship **
BTCUSD and COIN exemplify a compelling case study in sympathy trading within the cryptocurrency domain. Bitcoin's price dynamics often exert a significant influence on Coinbase's stock value, reflecting the exchange's dependency on Bitcoin's performance and trading volumes.
Technical Analysis Insights:
Technical analysis provides crucial insights into price trends, momentum, and support/resistance levels. Key technical indicators for trading BTCUSD and COIN include:
1.Moving Averages: Analyzing moving average crossovers and trends helps identify potential entry or exit points. Golden crosses (short-term moving average crossing above long-term moving average) or death crosses (opposite) can signal trend reversals.
2.Volume Analysis: Monitoring trading volumes in both BTCUSD and COIN can confirm price movements and signal changes in market sentiment. An increase in volume accompanying price movements suggests stronger market conviction.
3.Chart Patterns: Identifying chart patterns such as triangles, flags, and head and shoulders formations can provide insights into potential price reversals or continuation patterns, guiding trading decisions.
Fundamental Analysis Insights:
Fundamental analysis delves into underlying factors driving asset valuations and market sentiment. Key fundamental factors influencing BTCUSD and COIN include:
1.Regulatory Developments: Changes in regulatory frameworks governing cryptocurrencies can impact investor sentiment and trading activity. Positive regulatory developments may boost confidence in BTCUSD and COIN, while regulatory uncertainties could lead to volatility.
2.User Adoption and Trading Volumes: Monitoring user adoption rates and trading volumes on Coinbase's platform can provide insights into the exchange's revenue prospects and growth trajectory. Increased user activity often correlates with higher revenues for the exchange.
3.Market Sentiment and News Catalysts: Market sentiment surrounding Bitcoin, such as institutional adoption, macroeconomic factors, or geopolitical events, can influence both BTCUSD and COIN prices. News catalysts, such as product launches, partnerships, or earnings reports from Coinbase, can drive short-term price movements.
** Crafting Sympathy Strategies: **
Sympathy trading strategies integrating technical and fundamental analysis may involve:
1.Confirmation of Technical Signals: Confirming technical signals with fundamental catalysts can strengthen trading convictions. For example, if a bullish technical pattern emerges in BTCUSD, traders may look for positive fundamental catalysts supporting the uptrend in COIN.
2.Event-Based Trading: Leveraging fundamental analysis to anticipate market-moving events, traders may position themselves ahead of key announcements or developments. For instance, if positive regulatory news is expected for cryptocurrencies, traders may preemptively buy COIN in anticipation of increased trading activity.
** Risk Management Considerations: **
Effective risk management is paramount in sympathy trading to mitigate potential losses:
1.Position Sizing: Determine appropriate position sizes based on risk tolerance, account capital, and trade conviction. Avoid overexposure to a single trade and diversify across multiple assets to spread risk.
2.Stop-Loss Orders: Implement stop-loss orders to limit potential losses and protect capital. Place stop-loss levels based on technical levels, volatility considerations, or predetermined risk-reward ratios.
** Case study in action **
Let's look at the charts, both on the 1W time-frame in order to catch and get an understanding of the bigger trends and see if the theory is applied on the price action.
Bitcoin has provided 5 excellent Sympathy Play signals for Coinbase in the last 2 years. Starting with a Bear Flag that was rejected on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), Bitcoin initiated a huge decline on Coinbase (red shape), proportionally much stronger that its own. Then as its was attempting to find a market bottom, it provided 2 recovery signals that gave a proportionally bigger rise on Coinbase. Then a BTC Bull Flag again turned into a proportionally bigger rise on Coinbase with the last signal coming on October 2023.
As you can see during this significantly sample, Bitcoin tends to provide strong early buy/ sell signals on Coinbase. It is worth noting that even though Coinbase is a stock, it follows Bitcoin's price movements more closely than the S&P500 stock index, which we have illustrated on the right chart by the grey trend-line. As you can see there have been numerous occasions where Coinbase failed to follow a big stock market rally and instead was tied to BTC with the most notable examples being recently in January 2024, March 2023 and October 2022.
** A few things to consider that distinguish Bitcoin from Coinbase: **
Market Factors: Bitcoin's price is influenced by various market factors such as supply and demand dynamics, investor sentiment, macroeconomic trends, regulatory developments, and technological advancements. Coinbase's stock price, on the other hand, is influenced by factors specific to the company, including financial performance, earnings reports, regulatory compliance, competition, and market sentiment towards the cryptocurrency industry.
Liquidity and Trading Volume: Bitcoin, being the largest and most well-known cryptocurrency, typically exhibits higher liquidity and trading volume compared to Coinbase's stock. As a result, Bitcoin may experience more significant price movements and volatility compared to COIN, which could impact their respective charts differently.
Correlation vs. Causation: While Bitcoin's price movements may influence sentiment towards Coinbase and vice versa, correlation does not necessarily imply causation. While there may be periods where BTC and COIN prices move in tandem due to shared market sentiment or external factors, they are ultimately distinct assets with their own fundamental drivers.
Market Participants: Bitcoin is traded on cryptocurrency exchanges by a diverse range of market participants, including retail investors, institutional investors, miners, and traders. Coinbase's stock, on the other hand, is traded on traditional stock exchanges and may attract a different set of investors, including institutional investors, hedge funds, and retail traders.
** Conclusion: **
Sympathy trading using BTCUSD and COIN as case studies demonstrates the synergy between technical and fundamental analysis in identifying trading opportunities and managing risk. By integrating insights from both disciplines, traders can enhance their trading strategies, navigate market dynamics with confidence, and strive for consistent profitability in the dynamic cryptocurrency market.
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COINBASE Has it found a bottom? Caution if it breaks this level.Last time we looked into Coinbase (COIN), we set a long-term target of $150 (November 14 2023, see chart below) that was easily surpassed:
At the moment the stock is on a short-term pull-back following the rejection near the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). It is approaching a dangerous level, the 0.5 Fibonacci of the Channel Up, which is its middle but most of all the 116.50 level which is the former Resistance level (two Highs on August 04 2022 and on July 14 2023) that could now turn into Support.
If it holds, we can expect a rebound targeting $285, which would be a +146.82% rise, above the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. If it closes a 1D candle below it though, we expect the price to seek the maximum % decline it has had within this pattern, -47.15%, which would bring the stock around $100 and would be technical test of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and an excellent long-term buy entry, which is what took place on the October 27 2023 bottom. In that case a +146.82% rise would be $245.00 and that would be our Target. Note that at any given price, if the 1D RSI hits the 1-year Support Zone, it will be a solid buy entry regardless.
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COINBASE above the 1W MA100 for the first time ever.Coinbase Global (COIN) broke on Thursday above the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) for the first time in its trading history, following a strong rebound on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The prevailing pattern is a Channel Up, which with the help of the Fibonacci Channel extensions, gets put into a better context.
The 1D RSI shows that there is one pump left on the current rise, similar to the previous two bullish sequences of the Channel Up. Since the 116.50 Resistance 1 level has been unbroken for more than a year, our first target is 115.00, which will make an ideal technical Higher High for the Channel Up.
Beyond that, we will buy after a rejection to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. In the event that a 1D candle closes above Resistance 1, we will have a bullish break-out in our hands and again after a pull-back (this time not as deep as the 1D MA50), the trend should extend to 150.00 and the 1.5 Fibonacci Channel extension.
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COINBASE Final dip before bullish break-out.Coinbase Global (COIN) is failing on successive attempts to stay above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and that is technically establishing it as the medium-term Resistance. The long-term one is the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which has never been broken. Based on the MACD sequence, we have potentially one more dip to make on the Higher Lows trend-line, simiarl to May 04 and June 06, before first to test the 1W MA50 and then Resistance 1 (116.50), which is intact since August 04 2022. Our first target is 80.00 (1W MA100 projected path) and second is 115.00 (just below Resistance 1).
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COINBASE Needs one more dip before it turns a buy again.Coinbase Global (COIN) is neutral within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA100 (green trend-line) after the July 14 - August 18 fall. Even though the 1D MACD has formed a Bullish Cross, we don't think this is a buy opportunity yet, at least not until the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) gets tested. We have seen this Channel Down-into-consolidation pattern before and always ended with a new Low. The Higher Lows trend-line is there to offer Support long-term (has been doing so since the start of 2023). Our target after that dip will be the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which is the long-term Resistance. We expect a potential contact around 98.50.
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COINBASE is testing for strong pressureCOINBASE is testing for strong pressure
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Coinbase stocks over the past two years. The figure overlays the high points of November 2021 and the golden section below them. As shown in the figure, the low points of Coinbase in May 2022 and January 2023 are both supported by the 2.382 level of the golden section in the figure. The double bottom pattern has been formed, and the future is likely to rebound strongly upwards! The strong pressure above is at the 1.618 position of the golden section in the graph, and the recent long short split is at its highest point this week, also at the 2.000 position of the golden section in the graph!
COINBASE and its unique signalCoinbase (COIN) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down ever since its November 09 2021. It is trading both below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Even though the 1D RSI rebound below the 30.000 oversold levels, resembles the Lower Low January 28, it is the MACD that offers the best tradeable signal.
As you see, every time the MACD on the 1D time-frame makes a clear Bullish Cross, the price rises. Those short-term rebounds have been +11.70%, +20.26%, +23.00% and +28.50%. Our suggestion is to wait for the bullish cross and then buy for at least a +11% rebound. If contained below the 1D MA50, the Channel Down will remain valid.
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