Gold Bearish Structure Continues – Sell Levels UpdatedGold remains bearish after rejecting from the upper consolidation boundary and continuing its pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Price has now broken below the triangle-consolidation zone and is retesting the lower boundary around 4038-45 which aligns with previous liquidity. As long as price stays below the triangle resistance and fails to reclaim 4080 momentum favors further downside. The next bearish targets lie below the Strong Low zone aiming toward deeper liquidity and Fibonacci extensions.
✅ Bias: Sell below 4080
- Sell Zone: 4045 - 4055 (Retest of broken consolidation + minor supply)
- Stop Loss: 4082 (Above triangle resistance + structure break)
- Take Profit: 4025 - 4008 - 3988
- Invalidate: 4082 (Above triangle resistance + structure break)
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
Commodities
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 4382(Wave 3).In the past forecast, many have rightly pointed out that wave “4” went behind the high of wave “2” and yet we are not dealing with a diagonal.
This means that the waves have stretched and have a larger range of motion and now the correction in wave “2” is ending.
Essentially the upward movement is still prioritized and I expect two scenarios:
1) Continuation of the upward movement to the resistance area of 4382 (market entry)
2) Reaching the support area 3994.4, after which the correction can be considered complete and only then the movement to the area 4382 will start.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Stop!Loss|Market View: EURUSD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️
In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the EURUSD currency pair☝️
Potential trade setup:
🔔Entry level: 1.14869
💰TP: 1.14036
⛔️SL: 1.15401
"Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market.
👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts.
💬 Description: The US dollar continues to strengthen, and its upside potential is likely yet to be realized in the medium term. Against this backdrop, selling pressure on the euro remains high, and the 1.14000 target remains a seller's focus. The current accumulation just below 1.15500 offers a potential opportunity to consider short-term selling through a breakout of the lower boundary.
Thanks for your support 🚀
Profits for all ✅
Bearish reversal off 61.8% FIbonacci resistance?Gold (XAU/USD) is reacting off the pivot, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 4,147.61
1st Support: 4,093.63
1st Resistance: 4,219.46
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
XAUUSD: triangle compression🛠 Technical Analysis: On the 4-hour timeframe, Gold (XAUUSD) is consolidating within a massive symmetrical triangle, indicating a period of indecision and building volatility. The price action is currently compressing near the lower support trendline of the formation. The Moving Averages (SMA 50, 100, 200) are converging, further confirming the squeeze. The projected trade setup anticipates a bearish breakout below the triangle's support. A confirmed close below the trendline opens the path for a decline toward the immediate support zone at 3,893, with a medium-term target potentially reaching the 3,700 level marked on the chart.
🌍 Fundamental Analysis: The precious metal is under pressure as the market anticipates key US economic data due later this week. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming US GDP (Preliminary) and Core PCE Index figures. Stronger-than-expected data could reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance (or delay rate cuts), boosting the US Dollar and yields, which traditionally weighs on non-yielding assets like Gold. Additionally, liquidity may thin out approaching the US Thanksgiving holiday, potentially leading to sharper, erratic moves upon any breakout.
📉 Trade Parameters (SELL):
Entry Point : Sell on the confirmed breakdown of the triangle support (approx. 4,060 – 4,070).
Take Profit: 3,893, medium-term target at 3,700
Stop Loss: Above the immediate structure or SMA cluster (approx. 4,150).
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a hypothetical trade idea based on current analysis; market conditions and price direction are subject to change based on news factors and volatility.
Gold H1 – Will Economic Slowdown Trigger a Liquidity Sweep?🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (24/11)
📈 Market Context
Gold continues to move inside a tight compression range while markets react to new economic concerns raised by U.S. analysts.
According to today’s report, economists are increasingly worried about an unusual slowdown pattern in consumer behavior — spending remains high, but confidence and savings are weakening.
This mixed macro picture creates uncertainty:
🔹 Key takeaways from today’s news:
• U.S. consumers are still spending but confidence is deteriorating, a red flag for future growth.
• Economists warn this divergence could lead to slower economic momentum over the next quarters.
• Weakening sentiment → higher recession fears → typically supportive for gold after liquidity sweeps.
• However, short-term volatility remains high as markets reassess the sustainability of U.S. demand.
With uncertainty rising, institutions are likely engineering both-side liquidity grabs before committing to a directional move.
Gold is currently rotating between 4015–4100, respecting a clean SMC range structure.
🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Structure)
• Market Structure
Price is forming a descending compression pattern with repeated CHoCH signals, indicating engineered liquidity on both sides.
• Premium Sell Zone (1H Supply)
4100 – 4102
→ Overhead resting buy-side liquidity
→ Aligns with unmitigated internal supply + trendline liquidity
• Discount Buy Zone (1H Demand)
4015 – 4013
→ Inside the prior sweep zone
→ Confluence with ascending structure + BOS origin
• Liquidity Map
• Buy-side liquidity: above 4102 – 4110
• Sell-side liquidity: below 4013 – 4008
A sweep of either pocket is likely before real displacement.
🔴 Sell Setup (Premium Reaction Zone)
Entry: 4100 – 4102
Stop-Loss: 4110
Take-Profit Targets:
→ 4065 (imbalance fill)
→ 4040 (range midpoint)
→ 4018–4015 (discount retest)
📌 Execution Rule: Wait for liquidity sweep into the zone + bearish CHoCH on M5–M15.
🟢 Buy Setup (Discount Reaction Zone)
Entry: 4015 – 4013
Stop-Loss: 4008
Take-Profit Targets:
→ 4055 (short-term reaction)
→ 4080 (premium edge)
→ 4100 (sweep target)
📌 Valid only if price takes sell-side liquidity first and shows bullish displacement from discount.
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
• Market may react unpredictably to weakening U.S. consumer sentiment — reduce risk during spikes.
• Avoid trading inside the 4040–4070 chop zone unless a clean break or CHoCH forms.
• Treat both setups as liquidity–based plays, not trend continuation trades.
• Expect engineered manipulation during Asian session before London expansion.
📝 Summary
Gold remains trapped in a controlled SMC range as economic signals turn mixed.
With economists raising concerns about consumer–confidence divergence, gold may experience pre-breakout liquidity sweeps today.
Key Zones:
🔴 Sell Zone: 4100–4102
🟢 Buy Zone: 4015–4013
Expect the classic SMC sequence:
Accumulation → Sweep → Displacement → Retest → Target.
📍 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for more Smart Money updates.
Gold (XAUUSD) – Don’t Get Trapped: Sell High, Buy LowGold (XAUUSD) – Structural Outlook
Price action continues to develop within a corrective framework, forming a potential A–B–C structure following the recent impulsive advance. The market is approaching a key resistance zone aligned with the 0.786 retracement , where liquidity above the internal swing high may be targeted before a broader downside continuation toward the $3,880–$3,790 demand region. A confirmed sweep and rejection from the upper boundary would strengthen the case for the final leg of the correction, completing wave (C) before a higher-time-frame bullish continuation resumes.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading financial markets involves risk, and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Always conduct your own research and use proper risk management.
If you found this analysis valuable, leave a like, drop your thoughts in the comments, and follow for more structured market insights.
XAU/USD ANALYSIS 11/25/20251. Fundamental Analysis:
a) Economy:
• USD:
The USD is slightly weakening due to expectations that the FED will keep rates unchanged and may deliver more dovish signals in speeches this week.
• U.S. Stocks:
Wall Street inched higher last night, with the market leaning toward a risk-on sentiment, which usually weighs on gold. However, the gains were not strong → gold is not under heavy pressure.
• FED:
The FED continues to emphasize a “data-dependent” stance, but the market is starting to believe in the possibility of rate cuts in the coming months. This supports gold in the medium term.
• TRUMP Administration:
The new administration prioritizes economic recovery, deregulation, and tax cuts → which may stimulate the stock market, but geopolitical risks still linger → gold benefits whenever volatility rises.
• Gold ETF (SPDR):
SPDR has been buying and selling alternately with no clear trend. However, recent selling volume is not large → no major bearish pressure on gold. On Nov 24, the fund bought 0.29 tons—small, likely probing while waiting for upcoming news and market reactions.
b) Politics:
Tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved; additionally, U.S.–China trade competition still holds the potential for new conflicts → gold maintains its safe-haven appeal.
c) Market Sentiment:
The market is slightly risk-on, but within a narrow range and lacking strong momentum → reversal risks are always present.
The “waiting for FED this week” sentiment makes gold move more technically.
2. Technical Analysis:
The 30-minute timeframe gives extremely clear signals:
• Price has broken above the descending trendline extending from the Nov 17 high.
• A new uptrend (short- to medium-term) is forming.
• Extended targets if momentum holds: 4,244 – 4,276.
• RSI is in the mid-high zone but not overbought → still room for upside.
• MA20 has crossed above MA50 nicely, supporting the bullish trend.
Overall: Gold is likely retesting the breakout and continuing the upward trend.
RESISTANCE: 4,193 – 4,244 – 4,276
SUPPORT: 4,096 – 4,040 – 4,029 – 4,000
3. Previous Market Session:
• Gold surged strongly from the 4,040 zone, breaking the descending trendline and the ascending triangle.
• Price closed above all short-term EMAs → buying pressure dominates.
• Volume increased during the breakout → confirming the trend.
4. Strategy for Today (Nov 25, 2025):
🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4195 – 4193
SL: 4199
TP1: 4187
TP2: 4181
🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4084 – 4086
SL: 4080
TP1: 4092
TP2: 4098
Could we see a reversal from here?XAU/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 4,156.76
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss:4,195.51
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 4,099.93
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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WTI: Buyers Return After a False BreakoutOn the daily timeframe, buyers absorbed the sellers, and a false-breakout pattern has formed on the 4H chart. The nearest targets are 60.22 and 60.981.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) method.
Hello, traders and investors!
Oil is showing early signs of recovery. On the daily timeframe, the key level is 57.768 — the base of a buyer candle with increased volume during the last upward impulse. A high-volume seller candle interacted with this level, and yesterday’s daily buyer candle absorbed the seller, indicating strengthening buyer initiative. It’s also worth noting that in both candles, the key volume was accumulated at the bottom.
The blue band on the chart represents the minimal price range of the candle where 50% of the volume was accumulated.
The blue line marks the price level with the maximum accumulated volume.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the price is in a sideways range. A false-breakout pattern has just formed at the lower boundary of this range. The nearest target is 60.22, which aligns with the 50% level of the trading range — an important point to monitor. The next target is 60.981.
Wishing you profitable trades!
XAU/USD – Price Reaches Key Supply ZoneXAU/USD – Price Reaches Key Supply Zone, Bearish Reaction Expected
Gold on the H1 timeframe has completed a full A–B–C corrective structure, pushing price back into a major supply zone where sellers previously dominated. As price taps this zone again, the candlestick behavior shows hesitation and shrinking momentum — a classic signal of weakening buying pressure before a potential reversal.
This setup aligns with a typical rising correction into supply, often followed by a downside leg if sellers regain control.
Key Technical Zones
Supply (Strong Resistance)
4145 – 4170
The zone where price rejected sharply in the past, now being retested. Market structure suggests sellers may step in again.
First Support
4085 – 4095
A short-term liquidity pocket. A break below this area increases bearish confirmation.
Major Support
4015 – 4030
The deeper target if bearish momentum expands.
Trend Outlook
Price has reached a critical exhaustion point at the top of the pattern.
Rising wedge-like momentum combined with previous sell-offs at the same zone increases bearish probability.
If the rejection holds, gold may start a short-term downtrend targeting lower liquidity zones.
Trade Strategy (Sell Bias)
1. Short Position (Primary Plan)
Entry Zone: 4140 – 4155
Stop Loss: Above 4172
TP1: 4090
TP2: 4035
TP3: 4015 (extended target)
2. Alternative Breakout Plan
If price breaks and holds above 4172 on H1:
Invalidate bearish bias
Wait for new structure before considering longs
Market Notes
Current price action shows exhaustion wicks and compression into resistance.
Ideal confirmation is an H1 bearish engulfing or structure break below 4125–4130.
Avoid FOMO entries midway; only trade at zones where risk is controlled.
If you find this analysis useful, save it and follow for more high-quality setups updated daily.
Gold Pauses as Sellers Signal a Potential Downward Move AheadHello everyone,
Gold has just gone through a rather “heavy” session after being strongly rejected at the 4,090–4,100 USD area — a region where sellers seem ready to step in the moment price attempts to move higher. At the moment, gold has pulled back to around 4,065 USD, and the repeated appearance of small-bodied candles with long upper wicks looks like a reminder that the market is becoming tired after the previous bullish move.
External conditions are adding more pressure as well: the USD has strengthened sharply following US economic data that beat expectations, the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4%, and equity markets continue to rally thanks to Big Tech. With capital flowing out of safe-haven assets, gold simply lacks the “immediate reason” to bounce strongly right now.
With everything that’s unfolding, I’m leaning towards a clear scenario: gold is likely to slide down toward the 4,040–4,030 USD zone to test liquidity. If this area fails to hold, a drop toward 4,000 USD becomes a very real possibility — and that’s where the market may decide whether buyers still have enough strength to return.
What about you — do you think gold can defend 4,040 and rebound, or will it need to fall all the way to 4,000 before any recovery can happen?
XAUUSD – Triangle Breakout & Bullish Expansion ViewGold finally broke out from the symmetrical triangle pattern that was forming for many sessions.
The breakout candle was large, clean, and with strength, which is exactly what I expect for a valid move — no confusion candle, no fake wick.
One thing I really liked is the anchored Volume Profile.
The highest volume node sits exactly at the middle of the triangle, showing solid accumulation inside the pattern.
When such a heavy volume area gets broken with a big candle, most of the time the trend continues.
Right now, price is stepping out from compression into expansion mode.
✨ My View
I’m keeping this very simple.
Gold has broken the triangle, respected key support levels, and now moving toward the Fib Extension target.
The next expectation zone is already marked on the chart:
🎯 Target (Fib Extension): 4195
As long as price stays above the broken trendline area, the bullish structure remains valid.
📊 Fundamental Boost – US Data Today
- Today’s numbers gave additional support for gold:
- USD Core PPI m/m: 0.2% (forecast -0.1%)
- Core Retail Sales m/m: 0.3% (previous 0.7%)
- PPI m/m: 0.3% (forecast -0.1%)
- Retail Sales m/m: mixed but not extremely strong
Overall, the data is not strong enough to kill gold’s momentum, and the breakout technically already confirmed itself.
So combining technical breakout + volume + fundamentals, gold looks bullish toward the next extension level.
📘 Disclaimer
This is only my personal market approach, not financial advice. Trade safely.
Latest Gold Update Today!Hey traders,
As we kick off this new week, XAUUSD is holding steady, hovering around the 4,050-dollar level with barely any noticeable volatility.
This calm price action comes as the market keeps a close eye on what the Federal Reserve plans to do next. More and more participants are expecting the Fed to shift toward a more dovish stance and potentially move closer to a rate cut by the end of the year. With bond yields slipping, the dollar gradually losing strength, and safe-haven demand picking back up, gold is getting a solid foundation for a possible short-term push higher.
From a technical standpoint, XAUUSD is tightening inside a triangle pattern — a classic setup that usually signals accumulation before a stronger impulsive move. If price manages to break above the upper boundary, the next target could stretch toward the 4,500-dollar region, supported by the strength of the previous bullish leg.
From my perspective, market sentiment is slowly leaning toward the buyers, especially if upcoming U.S. data continues to ease pressure on gold.
What about you? How do you see things playing out? Are you expecting more upside, or do you think a correction is coming?
Wishing you a smooth, confident, and profitable trading week ahead.
XAUUSD: Running flat, bias is bearish.
Wave count targets 3890.64 and 3745.24, invalidation at 4134.32. Structure is unresolved risk entries are possible, but confirmation still needed. If invalidation occurs, support may develop near 0.618(4154.04) and 0.764(4188.76) Fibonacci retracement.
Count valid below 4134.32
Bearish bias
Monitoring fib pivots for alternate scenario
COPX: watching for upside momentum to continue Price is reacting constructively from the ideal mid-term support area established at the November bottom.
The trend structure suggests potential for at least one more leg to the upside into the 71–75 resistance zone, as long as the November lows continue to hold.
Chart:
We all want COFFEE to be cheaper, but uptrend might hold on! Although most CFD-traders might don't care - COFFEE is an interesting commodity right now, especially with current trends with nervous stock markets/indices.
In general:
- Coffee prices correlate with DXY and stock indices/VIX. Especially when stock markets go down
- Coffee is in higher demand as it is used as hedge against falling stock prices
- Coffee is in a long-term bull-market
If correlations align, especially if stock markets decrease more, there is more upside potential for the Coffee price.
CRITICAL WATCHING POINTS
Correlations for taking a LONG on COFFEE:
DXY (Dollar Index):
- Above 100.50 = BEARISH for coffee
- Below 99.70 = BULLISH for coffee
SPX/Stock Indices:
- Rally (VIX < 18) = BEARISH for coffee
- Weaken (VIX > 23) = BULLISH for coffee
BCOM:
- Break below 107 = BEARISH for commodities/coffee
- Break above 108.50 = BULLISH for commodities/coffee
Coffee Major Support Zone:
Hold above 355 = bull market intact
Break below 350 = could be a major problem (or we finally get cheaper coffee in the supermarket?!)
XAUUSD Daily – Five-Wave Impulse Toward 4,530On the XAUUSD daily chart I’m tracking a potential five-wave advance within the existing uptrend.
Wave (1)** marks the initial impulsive leg higher from trendline support
Wave (2)** is the corrective pullback that holds above the origin of wave (1) and respects the rising trendline
Wave (3)** extends beyond the wave
(1) high, confirming continuation of the bullish structure and establishing a new swing high.
* Price is now correcting as **wave (4)** back into the area of:
* the rising trendline drawn from prior lows, and
* the former consolidation / breakout zone around the previous highs.
While price holds above the wave (4) low and the trendline, I’m anticipating a continuation leg to the upside as **wave (5)**.
The projected wave (5) objective is around 4,527, where I have a confluence of measured extension and overhead resistance.
A decisive daily close below the wave (4) low and trendline support would invalidate this wave count and delay the bullish scenario.
How to choose a direction at the end of a triangular formation#XAUUSD TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold is still in a volatile market in the short term, its current trend has entered the end of a converging triangle pattern, and the market is getting closer to choosing a direction.
The market has recently been driven primarily by news, and the current geopolitical tensions, coupled with the stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks, may trigger a new wave of risk aversion. Therefore, during the European session, we can consider going long on gold when it retraces to the 4040-4030 range.
Oil Upd:Price at Resistance–But the Real Story Is in OptionFlowRight now, price has reached the upper boundary of the 1σ Expected Range (ER).
A pause or rejection here is possible.
But that’s not the main story.
Bears are getting active in the options market.
First sign: A significant Put Condor has appeared — large enough to stand out.
Target range: $55–$57
Timeframe: 20 days to expiry
📌 For those still learning:
A Condor profits most when price stays within a tight range at expiry.
Second wave of bearish positioning:
Additional players are placing Put Spreads targeting $54–$55, but with a much shorter horizon — 5–7 days.
This shows a layered approach:
Short and mid- term pressure expected
🧠 Bottom Line:
I’m not jumping into shorts right now — and I wouldn’t advise it blindly.
But given this growing bearish sentiment, it’s smart to start looking for short setups
Sentiment is building.
Crude Oil Showing Strong Upside SetupThis is the 4-hour timeframe support zone of Crude Oil.
The price is moving within a falling channel and is currently trading near the support zone at 5050–5100.
Crude Oil is respecting this support and has started taking a reversal.
If the momentum continues, the bullish move may extend towards the resistance zone at 5350–5400.
Thank you.






















