Confluent Inc | CFLT | Long at $20.55 Technical Analysis
Confluent's NASDAQ:CFLT stock went through a wild decline after its IPO, dropping 84.5% from its high to the recent low. It is currently in a consolidation / "share accumulation" phase (i.e. trading sideways, overall), and the price is riding just below its historical simple moving average. Often, the price will bounce along this area until momentum picks up and then it's off to the races to fill all the open price gaps above on the daily chart. Given the niche this company has in the AI market, I suspect this is the eventual direction the stock price will move. Time will tell, though, and more major downside isn't a non-possibility.
Market Niche
The explosive growth of AI, particularly agentic and generative models, demands real-time data streaming at scale. NASDAQ:CFLT 's Kafka platform addresses this indispensable AI infrastructure demand - accounting for an estimated 35% of market share in the platform segment as of 2025. While AWS and Azure challenge it in their ecosystems, NASDAQ:CFLT is growing and leading the space, overall.
Revenue and Earnings Growth into 2028
122.2% earnings-per-share growth expected between 2025 ($0.36) and 2028 ($0.80).
53.9% revenue growth expected between 2025 ($1.15 billion) and 2028 ($1.77 billion).
www.tradingview.com
Health
Debt-to-Equity: 1x (good)
Altman's Z-Score/Bankruptcy Risk: 2.6 (very low risk, but over 3 is best)
Insiders
Warning: A LOT of selling and no buying.
openinsider.com
Action
The projected growth of NASDAQ:CFLT as the world moves toward agentic AI makes sense. I think the drop in price after the IPO was calculated and there may be a lot of room to run in the next 1-3 years. Insiders selling and the competitive landscape are red flags, but from the technical analysis to the fundamentals, this looks like a promising growth stock. Thus, at $20.55, NASDAQ:CFLT is in a personal buy zone.
Targets into 2028
$28.00 (+36.3%)
$41.75 (+103.2%)
