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NZDJPY:Support Retest vs. BoJ Volatility FOREXCOM:NZDJPY NZD/JPY: Watching the 88.85 Support Floor – Confirmation Required Strategy: Support/Resistance + COT Sentiment Timeframe: D1 (Structure) / H4 (Trigger) Market Context NZD/JPY is currently caught in a tug-of-war. We have a fundamentally "neutral" New Zealand Dollar facing off against a Japanese Yen that is aggressively being bought back (Short-Covering) ahead of this Friday’s Bank of Japan rate decision. The pair has pulled back from the 90.50 resistance and is now approaching a major structural "Buy Zone" on the Daily chart. Technical Levels (S/R) Major Resistance Zone: 90.75 – 90.95. This is the recent swing high. Bulls must reclaim this to target the 92.00 handle. The Critical Floor (Support): 88.85 – 89.10. This level has been pivotal throughout late 2025. It aligns with the horizontal structural support on the Daily chart. Secondary Support: 87.60. If 88.85 fails, this is the final macro defense. COT & Fundamental "Fuel" NZD: Large speculators are largely neutral, with no extreme positioning. This means the Kiwi lacks the "squeeze" energy seen in AUD or GBP. JPY: Short-covering is the main driver. Net shorts have dropped to -31K, providing natural strength to the Yen. RBNZ: Holding steady at 2.25%. No immediate catalyst for Kiwi strength. 🛡️ Execution Rule: The Confirmation Filter With the BoJ expected to hike rates on Friday, we could see a "stop-run" below our support levels. Wait for one of these H4 signals at the 88.85 – 89.10 zone: Bullish Engulfing: A strong green candle that closes above the high of the previous bearish candle. The "Hammer" / Long Wick: Price stabs below 88.85 but aggressively reverses to close back above it, showing that buyers are defending the floor. Morning Star Pattern: A three-candle sequence (Red -> Doji -> Green) confirming a bottom has formed. 🎯Trade Parameters Entry: Only after H4 Confirmation at 88.85 - 89.10. Stop Loss: (Below the recent swing lows). Take Profit 1: 90.40 (Recent resistance). Take Profit 2: 91.90 (Macro extension).
by J4mesWick
Is it going to happen again? My view to the markets right now...CBOT_MINI:YM1! Is the Dow Jones breaking the downtrend again? I believe there's a strong chance the markets are setting up for another move higher. From a fundamental standpoint, the recent pause in tariffs is a big deal. It removes an immediate layer of uncertainty that’s been hanging over the global economy, especially for exporters and multinational companies. On top of that, the fact that key tech products have been left out of the latest tariff actions is boosting confidence in the sector that has been leading market strength for years. Economically, we’re still seeing resilience in key indicators. Unemployment remains low, consumer spending is steady, and central banks are staying cautious with tightening. The environment still leans more towards slow growth than recession, which supports equities over the medium term. More importantly, my own criteria for a favorable market setup are lining up. Whether it’s sentiment, intermarket signals, or trend conditions—this looks like a solid spot for a bullish stance. You can see my chart to check out my current viewpoint on the Dow Jones and how I’m positioning based on all this. Not Financial Advice
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by FairValueBuffet
Promising Breakout Setup Ahead! Chart 1W CBOT_MINI:YM1! BLACKBULL:US30 Promising Breakout Setup Ahead! The chart highlights RSI and Williams %R trendline breakout plays. My strategy? Identify trendlines on the chart, monitor RSI and Williams %R, and target breakouts on these momentum indicators. Current Situation: All key signals have already triggered. Strong bullish seasonality Favorable COT data (small specs bearish, commercials bullish) Low open interest This setup aligns with high-probability breakout criteria. Chart Indicator SMA 1W 52 (red) SMA 1W 18 (green) Bottom Indicators WilVal Williams R% 9 length RSI 9 length Not Financial Advice for more questions ask in the comments or check my X @valuebuffet
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by FairValueBuffet
Corn Short, Technical, Fundamental and COT Analysis Current Corn Short Entered originally, and admittedly prematurely, when we saw price touch the 61.8% fib retracement level. Entered a short position last month as price has been steadily falling since June last year. The falling price of corn is being caused by simply an overabundance of supply, and a lack of increased demand. On the supply side, we have seen Corn acreage in the USA increase by ~10%. At the same time, Brazil has also been growing record amounts of corn. One of the factors which lead to Corns high in 2022 was the Russo-Ukrainian war and Ukraine's inability to export their produce. This is simply not the case anymore, as of now, Ukrainian exports have begun to pick back up to pre-invasion levels. Demand has failed to increase with these pro-supply events. Over the past four years we have seen American cattle herds, who are the largest consumers of Corn, slowly shrinking to lows not seen since the 50s. This is mostly due to an increase in local droughts which have made it harder to graze cattle, a preferable alternative to cattle feed due to the cheaper costs. This has caused the overall demands for Corn to shrink as there are less cattle overall to consume Corn and Corn products due to the drought. Non-Commercial traders, as can be seen through COT filings, are a majority short Corn. 528,280 short positions are currently held by Non-Coms vs 295,676 longs. Latest COT filings do show a slight increase in Net Positions (Longs-Shorts) compared to the previous. Possibly due to profit taking by Non-Commercials. My Entry was based on Technical analysis, mostly an apparent Fib retracement. I saw price close in the "Golden Zone" on the 27th of Feb and as I am heavily Bearish on Corn, took it as an opportunity to enter short. This entry was rather early and if I am closed, with my SL at 4.208, I will look to re-enter at a later date.
OANDA:CORNUSDShort
by DedoAUS
AUDcad Short H4 Double TopSeeing that AUDcad seems to be failing to close above recent highs. It appears that AUDcad was losing bullish momentum. COT data reported a weakening AUD and a strengthening CAD. Market came to test dynamic Daily Resistence. The test seems to have apprached the resistance in a rising wedge/flag correction. The top of this inner corrective channel formed a Double Top on the H4/H1 timeframes at its own resistance trendline. This appears to be enough confluence to consider selling AUDcad at this point. Use the discretion of your own entry strategies to confirm any possible entry opportunities that you may find. as for me.
Short
by OmegaDonTony
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