ZENUSDT 4H – EMA Deviation Long from Demand Zone after Base Migr1. Setup
BINANCE:ZENUSDT corrected ~38% in the last week and is now sitting in a 4H demand cluster around 11.6–12.0 after the Base migration is mostly priced in. My EMA Deviation strategy printed a fresh long signal here, so I’m taking a swing long on Bybit perps.
2. Technical picture (4H)
Price has been trending below the 4H EMA band, with a sequence of lower lows into stacked demand between 11.6–12.0.
The current entry is taken on a rejection of the lower demand block with risk placed just below the local liquidity sweep.
First target is the 4H EMA / previous breakdown area around 14.2–14.3, where the last strong sell impulse started.
Trade parameters on the chart:
• Entry: ~12.0
• Stop: 11.64 (below demand and recent low)
• Target: 14.28
This gives roughly +19% upside vs ~3% downside, R:R ≈ 6.4.
3. Strategy stats
This long is taken strictly by the EMA Deviation rules on LSE:ZEN 4H:
• Winrate: 68.85%
• Avg PnL per trade: +3.89%
• Avg winner ≈ +10.3%, avg loser ≈ −10.3% (win/loss ratio ~0.92)
• Largest winner: +23.8%, largest loser: −23.7%
• Losing trades on average last more bars (53) than winners (23), so I prefer tight invalidation and not “hoping” through long drawdowns.
Current setup is better than the historical average: risk is compressed to ~3% while the target is in the area of the strategy’s best winners.
4. Fundamentals & flows
Horizen 2.0 migrated BINANCE:ZENUSDT to Base (ERC-20), while the legacy mainchain and EON are being deprecated. Circulating supply is ~17.6M out of 21M max – classic low-float privacy coin profile.
On derivatives, OI is around $50M+, futures volume is several times spot, and funding across major venues is near zero. That combination suggests a heavy perp-driven market without an extreme positioning bias yet, but with potential for accelerated squeezes once spot demand returns.
On-chain, liquidity is concentrated in Base DEX pools (Uniswap / Aerodrome), while aggregated TVL numbers still look underdeveloped – narrative and integrations are lagging price.
Recent catalysts: completion of the Base migration, “Made in USA / privacy” narratives, plus listings for staking/participation products. At the same time, price is still −93% from ATH and just printed a −37% weekly flush – classic environment for mean-reversion rather than momentum chasing.
5. Trade plan & invalidation
Idea: fade the extreme downside deviation from the 4H EMA into demand, ride the bounce back into the 14+ resistance / EMA band while derivatives remain heavy and funding flat.
If price closes 4H below 11.64 and cannot immediately reclaim the demand block, I consider the long idea invalid and step aside – that would open the door for a deeper reset of the whole Base-migration pump.
If we reach 14.0–14.3 quickly, I’ll scale out most of the position there and only trail a small runner toward higher EMA deviation targets.
Not financial advice. This is a structured swing idea based on my EMA Deviation system plus current ZEN fundamentals and derivatives context.
