Technical Analysis: XAU/USD (Gold) - SMC StrategyTrade Breakdown
We are looking at a high-probability setup based on SMC (Smart Money Concepts). After a consolidation phase, the market executed a Sweep of the Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL), trapping retail sellers before revealing its true bullish intent.
Key Highlights:
1. Confirmation: The Choch (Change of Character) signals that the order flow has shifted to the upside.
2. The Entry (POI): We are waiting for a pullback to our Point of Interest at 4,922 to join the move.
3. Stop Loss (SL) Management: As soon as price hits and breaks through TP1 (4,964), we will move our SL to Breakeven (Entry Price).
• The Logic: If our bias is correct, price should not return to the entry zone after breaking structure. This secures a "Risk-Free Trade" while we target 5,009 and 5,056.
GOOD LUCK TRADERS…
Discipline
Buy Analysis: Gold (XAU/USD) 15M📈 Team! We have a very clear bullish setup on Gold. Here is the detailed plan for us to follow:
🔍 Technical Analysis
• Entry Zone (POI): We are looking for buys at the 5,046 level. This is a 15-minute demand zone (POI-15M) with great confluence.
• Confirmation: Price has already shown us a Choch (Change of Character) and a BOS (Break of Structure). We are waiting for a Sweep (liquidity grab) before the move starts.
• Liquidity Target: Our TP3 is set at 5,115, targeting the external buy-side liquidity left above.
🛡️ Risk Management (The Key)
1. TP1 (5,069): Once this level is hit, we close a partial position and move our Stop Loss to Break Even (BE). Risk-free trade!
2. TP2 (5,089): We continue monitoring to secure profits.
3. Active Monitoring: As price moves up, we will trail the SL under new higher lows to capture as many pips as possible. GOOD LUCK TRADERS…
XAU/USD Gold Analysis (5M)Today’s gold strategy is all about patience. We are looking for a liquidity sweep followed by a confirmed re-test to trigger our long entry. Risk management is our priority:
1. TP 1: Once we hit the first target, we move Stop Loss to Breakeven (BE). Risk-free trade from there.
2. Trailing Stop: We’ll trail the price by moving the SL to newly formed higher lows, locking in profits while shooting for TP2 and TP3.
Note: Low impact news today, but stay sharp as volatility ramps up tomorrow!
GOOD LUCK TRADERS……………..;)
Technical Analysis: XAU/USD (Gold) – Refined Re-entryXAU/USD (Gold)
Strategy: Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Entry Level: 4,840 (5M POI)
Setup: We are looking for an entry following a Sweep of the previous support zone's liquidity. After identifying a clear Choch and BOS, price action confirms a bullish shift in market structure.
• TP 1: 4,905 (Time to move Stop Loss to Breakeven)
• TP 2: 4,960
• TP 3: 5,020
• Risk/Reward: 1:3
Market Analysis: XAU/USD (Gold) — Long SetupTeam! We have a clear bullish setup on Gold. After a distribution phase, the market finally swept the sell-side liquidity and confirmed a Change of Character (Choch).
• Point of Interest (POI): We are waiting for a retracement to the demand zone at $4,852 for an institutional entry.
• Targets: We are looking to mitigate the imbalances (FVG) left at the previous highs.
• Risk Management (Crucial): Once price hits our TP1 ($4,900), we will immediately move our Stop Loss to Breakeven (BE). Protecting our capital is priority number one; we trade with logic, not emotions.
XAU/USD UPDATE: 15M (SMC)Riding the Wave to the Top
Update! We are in full control of the Gold market. After a sniper entry at our POI (4,708), TP1 has been hit and we are now running risk-free with BE at 4,830. Price has broken out of the consolidation zone, confirming our bullish order flow. Given the U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical tensions, Gold is primed for a run toward 5,000+. Trust the process!
🔍 Key Highlights
• Current Price / Rebounding strongly, up ~5% today.
• Target 2: 5,005 (Psychological barrier).
• Target 3: 5,144 (Final expansion).
• Risk Management: BE at 4,830. Profits already secured! 💰
GOOD LUCK TRADERS, AND STAY FOCUSED. ( PATIENT) 🦾😎💵
Not Every Trade Will Happen — Discipline Comes FirstSometimes the market gives us a setup… but the conditions we need never appear.
Price may reach a zone that looks promising, show a small reaction, and then move away.
For me, that first touch is information, not a trade.
I wait for confirmation — absorption, commitment, and proper structure on lower timeframes.
This approach means:
-watching price move without me,
-missing what might look like a “perfect” trade,
-staying flat while others are active.
And that’s okay.
Activity is not the same as progress.
By waiting for confirmation, I trade less — but with intention.
Risk stays defined, decisions remain clean, and outcomes become repeatable.
Not trading is not hesitation.
It’s discipline.
And discipline is part of the system.
>If you want to see how I analyze setups in real time and share my thought process on each move, hit follow and join the journey.
Technical Analysis: XAU/USD (Gold)Structure: After a long downtrend, price executed a ChoCh (Change of Character), breaking the trendline and confirming bullish intent with a subsequent BOS (Break of Structure).
• Point of Interest (POI): The entry is set at the 5M-POI, looking for price to tap into the higher time frame 4H-FVG (Fair Value Gap).
• Liquidity: The analysis highlights a "Fake out" and a "Sweep", which are crucial for dodging institutional traps before the actual expansion.
• Targets: A solid 1:3 Risk/Reward ratio, with three Take Profit (TP) levels scaling up to the 5,144 mark.
Bullish analysis (5M) GOLDStructure & Narrative:
Price grabbed external liquidity (Buy-side Liquidity) creating a new HH, followed by an aggressive displacement leaving a 4H-FVG (imbalance). We are now looking for a high-precision entry based on a liquidity hunt of the previous support zone (Sell-side Liquidity Sweep).
The Setup:
• Entry (POI): 5,272. We are waiting for a retest of the 5M Order Block following the Change of Character (Choch).
• Management: We take partial profits at TP1 (5,390) and move the Stop Loss to Break Even (BE) to secure a risk-free trade.
• Targets: The final target is 5,590, aiming to fill the price inefficiency and ride the bullish order flow. Good luck traders
Trade Breakdown: XAU/USD (Gold) – High Stakes at All-Time HighsGold is in price discovery mode, smashing All-Time Highs. But Smart Money doesn't chase; it waits for liquidity. We’ve identified a New HH that looks like a trap for retail buyers (Fake out). Our play is to wait for the Sweep to flush out weak hands right into our 5m POI, backed by a 1H FVG. We enter where others panic.
🛠 The Game Plan
• Entry / Entrada: 5,390 After Sweep
• Stop Loss: 5,300 Protecting the house
• Targets
• TP1 (5,520): Move to BE
• TP2 (5,597): Partial profits
• TP3 (5,670): To the moon
• Risk/Reward (R:R): 1:3 📈
GOOD LUCK TRADERS…
The Missing Skill After Entry: Staying AlignedMost traders learn how to enter.
Few learn how to stay aligned.
Entries are technical.
Execution is psychological.
What breaks most traders isn’t their strategy — it’s what happens after they’re in a trade:
• second-guessing
• over-managing
• fear of giving back profits
• impatience when price pauses
• breaking rules to “fix” discomfort
Alignment is what keeps execution clean:
• timeframe agreement
• session context
• predefined risk
• acceptance of outcome
When alignment is present, discipline becomes natural — not forced.
This chart isn’t about predicting price.
It’s about recognizing when you are aligned enough to execute your plan without interference.
Trade well.
Stay aligned.
XAUUSD — Strong Rally, Zero Permission Regime Invalid No TradeGold pushed aggressively higher today.
Momentum looks clean.
Breakouts look tempting.
Retail traders chase this move.
RegimeWorks does nothing.
Because price movement is not permission.
Top-down check:
• London session → CLOSED
• NY session → CLOSED
• 4H regime → INVALID
• Regime detail → Overextended
• Reversal permitted → NO
• Result → WAIT
When higher timeframe structure is stretched and sessions are closed, expectancy collapses.
This is exactly where most losses happen:
• chasing late trends
• trading outside liquidity
• forcing reversals into strength
Our system blocks all three automatically.
No setup = no trade.
Discipline is not about finding entries.
It’s about filtering bad environments.
Today gold moved.
We didn’t.
That’s correct behavior.
— RegimeWorks
Short-Gold (5M) Bias: Bearish (Short-term Correction)
1. Point of Interest (POI): Price hit a new All-Time High (HH) followed by a Choch (Change of Character), signaling a shift in momentum.
2. Liquidity: We’ve seen Buy-side Liquidity grabbed and a clear "Sweep" before the breakdown, confirming Smart Money distribution.
3. Target: There is a massive 1H-FVG (Fair Value Gap) below. My thesis is that the market will move to fill this imbalance and hunt for liquidity before continuing its long-term bullish trend.
4. Execution: Entry at the 5M POI, targeting a 1:3 Risk/Reward ratio.
GOOD LUCk TRADERS…..;)
XAU/USD Analysis (Gold) 5MXAU/USD Analysis (Gold)
Title: High Probability Setup - 5M SMC Strategy
Hey team! We are looking at a very clean institutional setup on Gold today. Here is the breakdown of our bullish thesis:
• Structural Shift: After some consolidation, we got a Choch (Change of Character) and a subsequent BOS (Break of Structure). Bulls are clearly in charge.
• Demand Zone (POI): Our Point of Interest is set at 5,066. This is the origin of the last impulsive move where we expect price to react.
• Liquidity Sweep: Patience is key. We are waiting for a Sweep of previous lows to grab liquidity from early retail buyers before the price pushes toward the 5,150 target.
• Confluence: There is a clear FVG (Fair Value Gap) on the left acting as a price magnet, increasing the probability of a healthy retracement.
Key Levels:
• Entry: 5,066
• TP 1: 5,111 (Partial profits)
• TP 2: 5,150 (Final target)
• Stop Loss: 5,038 (Protected below the structure)
USDJPY — No Trade (Regime Invalid) | Permission FirstToday USDJPY produced multiple intraday moves that look tradable at first glance.
My system did nothing.
And that is the correct behavior.
RegimeWorks only trades when higher-timeframe structure grants permission.
Current state:
• 4H regime = invalid
• No expansion
• No clean directional bias
• Mean-reverting chop
• Edge = statistically weak
So every signal is blocked by design.
No overrides.
No discretion.
No “maybe this one works”.
If permission is absent → we stay flat.
Capital protection > trade frequency.
Most losses come from forcing trades in environments like this.
Today the best trade was: No trade.
—
RegimeWorks
Permission → Setup → Execution
Not prediction. Not signals.
XAUUSD (GOLD) – High Probability Long SetupTechnical Analysis:
We are monitoring a bullish structure forming after a significant liquidity sweep. Following a Choch and an aggressive displacement that left a 15m FVG, the price is confirming strong buying pressure.
The Strategy:
We don't chase the market. We are waiting for a liquidity Sweep back into our 15m Order Block (OB) at the 4,788 level. This is our high-confluence support zone.
Risk Management:
• Entry: 4,788.00 (At the OB)
• SL: 4,758.00 (Below the support zone)
• R/R: 1:3
• Action Plan: Once TP1 is hit, we will secure the trade by moving our Stop Loss to Breakeven (BE), ensuring a risk-free position.
Niveles / Targets:
• 🎯 TP1: 4,826.00 (Partial profits & BE)
• 🎯 TP2: 4,857.00
• 🎯 TP3: 4,888.00
Trading Is Technical. Surviving It Is Mental.Most traders spend years learning how to find entries.
Indicators. Levels. Setups. Models.
And for a while, it feels like progress.
But the market doesn’t break traders at the entry.
It breaks them after.
Once money is on the line, the chart stops being neutral—and the mind takes over.
Fear shows up as hesitation.
Greed shows up as overconfidence.
Patience gets tested during pauses.
Discipline erodes during chop.
That’s where most strategies quietly fail—not because they’re bad,
but because they’re executed emotionally instead of intentionally.
The real separation in trading isn’t who can spot a setup.
It’s who can stay aligned while price moves, pauses, pulls back, and tests conviction.
Structure gets you in.
Psychology keeps you in.
Discipline decides how you exit.
This is the work most traders skip—because it’s harder to measure, harder to automate, and harder to face.
But it’s also where consistency lives.
Market structure, psychology, and discipline aren’t separate skills.
They’re a system.
And trading isn’t just about reading price.
It’s about reading yourself—while the market applies pressure.
XAUUSD — Regime Valid, NY Open, No Reversal Permission (Waiting)FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
Context, not signals.
Gold is currently in a valid higher-timeframe regime, but despite NY being open, reversal conditions are NOT permitted at this time.
What the framework is saying
HTF Regime: ✅ Valid
London Session: ❌ Closed
NY Session: ✅ Open
Reversal Permission: ❌ No
Outcome: Waiting
This means:
Trend structure is still intact
No confirmed regime weakness
No stretched conditions aligned with a sweep/rejection model
In other words: there is no permission to fade this move yet.
Why no trade here
Reversal engines in RegimeWorks only activate when:
Trend continuation weakens
Price is not stretched
Session context supports liquidity-driven reversals
None of those conditions are fully met right now.
Key takeaway
Not trading is a decision.
If the regime has not broken, there is nothing to “anticipate.”
Patience here protects capital and keeps the system aligned with its rules.
RegimeWorks philosophy:
Entries are temporary opinions. Regime is permanent law.
Market Analysis: XAU/USD (GOLD)Gold continues its historic rally. We are currently tracking a clear bullish structure based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC):
• Entry Zone: Looking for a retracement to the 15m Order Block (OB) at $4,765.
• Confluence: There is a 1H FVG (Fair Value Gap) that price needs to rebalance before continuing its expansion.
• Targets: Three Take Profit levels, with a final target at $4,880.
• Risk Management: Risk/Reward ratio of 1:3. Stop Loss protected below structural support.
TRADING DISCIPLINE — READ BEFORE YOU TRADE!!Every trade must have a reason.
Not a feeling. Not FOMO.
Entry & Exit
You only enter when there is clear confirmation or a specific price level that fits the plan.
Your stop loss is placed at the invalidation level if price reaches it, the idea is wrong.
Take profit is set based on realistic market conditions, not greed.
Once the stop loss is set, it is final. Never widen your stop loss.
What you decide before entering is your responsibility as a disciplined trader.
Risk Management
Risk per trade is 1%. Maximum 2.5% only when using a high win-rate strategy.
You must have daily and weekly loss limits.
When the limit is hit, stop trading! your mindset is no longer objective.
The market will always be here tomorrow, but your capital might not be.
Limit the number of trades per day, because more trades do NOT mean more profit.
Never trade during high-impact news. Trade after the news, when direction is clearer.
Market & Timeframe
Define bias on the higher timeframe.
Execute on the lower timeframe.
Never trade against the higher timeframe context.
Market Conditions
Always understand the environment: bull or bear market.
Identify market structure / trending or ranging.
Avoid unstable or chaotic volatility.
Trade only during your chosen market session: Asian, London, or New York not all sessions.
Psychology
Losses are business expenses.
Wins don’t justify breaking rules.
If you’re tired or emotional, don’t trade.
Discipline over emotion.
Always.
The Trade That Changed Me ForeverThere was a trade years ago that worked perfectly.
Not because it was lucky.
Not because the market was easy.
But because I didn’t think.
Everything was already decided.
Structure was clear. Risk was defined.
I just executed.
And that moment stayed with me.
Think about driving.
The road changes.
Traffic changes.
Conditions are never the same.
Yet you don’t overthink every move.
You don’t debate the steering or the brakes.
You just drive.
Because repetition turned chaos into instinct.
That’s exactly what happened with my trading.
Flawless Execution Is the Turning Point
That trade taught me something simple:
Trading becomes profitable when execution becomes automatic.
When price reaches your level, there’s no conversation.
No hesitation... No emotion... No noise...
YOU. JUST. ACT.
I didn’t feel excitement.
I didn’t feel fear.
I felt calm.
When execution becomes second nature, trading stops being heavy, and starts flowing... Just like driving.
Question for you:
When did trading start to feel natural for you? or are you still forcing every decision?
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~ Richard Nasr
What RegimeWorks Means – And Why I Often Don’t TradeMost traders start with entries.
I start with permission.
RegimeWorks is not a signal method – it is a decision filter built on three questions:
Is the market currently behaving in a defined regime?
Is the active session appropriate for participation?
Is today’s quality high enough to justify risk?
If any answer is “no” → the correct trade is to do nothing.
That is why many of my ideas show no-trade outcomes.
Not because the market is “bad,” but because discipline is part of edge.
Good trading is not about finding reasons to click buy or sell.
It is about filtering conditions where behavior and liquidity disagree.
If this page looks boring, that is intentional.
Professional process usually is.
What you will NOT find here
• No signals
• No hindsight entries
• No prediction contests
• No hype
What you WILL find
• Context before action
• Session awareness
• Risk-first thinking
• One behavior at a time
The indicator shown on my charts is a framework tool only – it defines when to be cautious before when to participate.
USDJPY — Regime Valid, Session Closed → No TradeThe higher-timeframe trend regime remains valid, but current participation conditions are not.
Despite structural continuation on the 4H, price is trading during a non-participatory session, resulting in compressed movement and low follow-through.
This is a good example of where:
Bias exists
Direction exists
Opportunity does not
No trade is intentional here.
My process requires both regime alignment and active session participation before considering any execution. When sessions are closed, patience is the position.
Waiting is not inactivity — it’s risk control.
Most losses don’t come from bad entries — they come from trading when nothing is required.






















