FTSE 100 SHINES BRIGHT, WITHIN A WHISKER OF 10000 EPIC MILESTONEThe FTSE 100 index TVC:UKX is on track for one of its strongest years in decades in the year 2025, delivering a total return of about 18% year‑to‑date and trading just below the round and psychologically important 10,000‑point level by December, 2025.
This rally has been powered by a mix of miners, financials, and select growth names, with a handful of stocks delivering triple‑digit returns and heavily influencing the index.
2025 returns and 10,000 milestone
The FTSE 100 has returned roughly 20% in 2025 including dividends, making it the seventh‑best year on record and the strongest since the post‑financial‑crisis rebound.
By the middle of November, 2025 the index had climbed to around 9,930 points, described as “within a whisker” of 10,000 , and had outperformed major US indices (like S&P 500 SP:SPX and Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI ) over the year.
Forward‑looking models cited by analysts place many year‑end projections in the mid‑9,000s, underlining that 10,000 is more a timing than a feasibility question if earnings strength persists.
From a structural standpoint, supportive global policy, reasonable valuations, and strong contributions from commodities and financials have underpinned the surge, while the high dividend yield continues to attract both domestic and international investors. The index’s heavy overseas revenue exposure also means that periods of sterling softness have translated into stronger reported profits in 2025, magnifying gains.
Top 5 performers in 2025
Different datasets cut “top” slightly differently, but across major sources the standout FTSE 100 winners in 2025 cluster around a similar, defence-related, group of stocks:
Fresnillo LSE:FRES - precious‑metals miner with a total return around 345%, benefiting from a powerful rally in gold and silver prices and improved operational performance.
Technically saying, Fresnillo stock shows 7 consecutive Bull quarters in a row, as epic breakthroughs of 200-month SMA and multi-year highs has recently occured.
Either precious metals shine bright in 2025, their year-to-date returns definitely are not about "quadruppling in price".
This is why Fresnillo stock feels like 'a repeat mode' of 'MSTR v. 2024'... isn't it.
Airtel Africa LSE:AAF – telecoms and mobile money group with about 171% return, driven by rapid earnings growth, financial inclusion trends, and rerating from previously depressed valuations.
Technically saying, Airtel Africa stock shows 4 Bull consecutive quarters in a row, as epic breakthrough of multi-year highs has recently occured.
Babcock International LSE:BAB – defence and engineering group described as the best‑performing FTSE name earlier in the year, up roughly two‑thirds by May and supported by defence spending tailwinds and balance‑sheet repair.
Technically saying, Babcock International stock shows its best ever calendar year, with nearly 140% YTD return in the 2025.
Rolls-Royce Holdings LSE:RR. - one more defence and engineering group that develops and delivers complex power and propulsion solutions for safety-critical applications in the air, at sea and on land.
Technically saying, Rolls-Royce Holdings stock has nearly doubled in price in 2025, and printed more than 10x over the past 3 years.
Antofagasta LSE:ANTO - is a copper mining group with significant by-product production and interests in transportation. The Group creates value for its stakeholders through the discovery, development and operation of copper mines.
Antofagasta stock has also nearly doubled in price in 2025, following multi-year Bull vibe.
A broader “next tier” that often appears in top‑15 lists includes Next and Games Workshop each returning more than 50% and highlighting the role of retail, niche consumer brands, and copper in the 2025 upswing.
These stocks’ outperformance reflects a combination of cyclical leverage to commodities and defence, structural growth (mobile money, gaming IP), and market rerating from previously low multiples. Their weight in the index means they have had an outsized effect on the FTSE 100’s approach to 10,000.
Key drivers: 2026 fundamentals
Into 2026, large banks and brokers broadly expect the FTSE 100 to “grind higher” rather than explode upwards, with central scenarios pointing to moderate index gains supported by improving earnings and still‑reasonable valuations.
One major house outlines a base case of steady profit growth and a wider spread of contributors, moving away from the narrow group of 2025 winners, while an upside scenario sees the index potentially reaching around 10,800 by December 2026 if global growth accelerates, financial conditions ease, commodity prices remain firm, and sterling weakens.
Fundamentally, several factors look supportive: gradual interest‑rate cuts would relieve pressure on rate‑sensitive domestic sectors; 75–80% of FTSE 100 revenues are generated abroad, so a softer pound would lift reported earnings; and multi‑year capex programmes in energy and defence, such as SSE’s planned £33 billion investment and BAE Systems’ large export contracts, provide visible revenue pipelines.
Offsetting this, downside scenarios focus on risks of a global slowdown, stubborn inflation keeping rates elevated, falling commodity prices, and a stronger pound, which could pull the index back toward the low‑7,000s.
Technical picture into 2026
Technically, analysts describe the FTSE 100 in a mature but still constructive uptrend, with long‑term charts showing a breakout above prior resistance zones in the mid‑9,000s and potential for an extension toward roughly 10,500–11,000 if momentum is sustained.
One widely cited framework highlights an expanding wedge pattern, with 9,500 as a key breakout area and 7,000 as a major historical support zone that would likely attract buyers on any deep correction.
As the index hovers just below the 10,000 mark, that level functions as both psychological resistance and a potential springboard: a decisive weekly close above it, supported by rising volume and breadth beyond miners and financials, would strengthen the case for a attempt of 2026 bull leg.
Short‑ to medium‑term, the risk is that the 2025 rally has already priced in much of the near‑term earnings recovery, making the index more vulnerable to disappointments or sharp commodity pullbacks.
However, history suggests that once (and if) major indices convincingly clear big round numbers, those levels often become support rather than ceilings, especially when underpinned by improving macro data and ongoing dividend appeal.
