DXY Daily Outlook: Bearish Pressure BuildsLooking at the DXY (US Dollar Index) chart as of September 30, 2025, the long-term structure is clearly in a descending wedge pattern, showing sustained weakness since the sharp rejection from the 100.23 level earlier this year. Price action has been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, respecting the upper and lower trendline resistance and support. Currently, DXY is trading around 97.80, slightly above the mid-support zone, but momentum suggests that bears remain in control.
The chart also highlights multiple Change of Character (ChoCH) and Break of Structure (BOS) points, showing failed attempts by bulls to reverse the trend. Each rally has been capped below descending resistance, most recently around the 98–99 zone, which is now acting as a supply area. The ongoing compression in price suggests a possible breakout direction soon.
From a Fibonacci perspective, the major retracement levels drawn from the swing high (100.23) to the swing low (96.18) give clear downside targets. If the wedge breaks bearish, first support lies near 96.18, followed by Fib -0.382 (94.63), then deeper at -0.618 (93.67). A strong bearish continuation could extend toward the -1.618 projection (89.62), which aligns with long-term demand.
On the other side, if bulls manage to reclaim 98.50–99.00 with strong volume, it could trigger a corrective leg toward 100.23 (previous high and wedge resistance). However, given repeated rejections, this remains the less likely scenario unless macro fundamentals (such as Fed policy or global risk sentiment) strongly shift in favor of the dollar.
The RSI/Momentum structure would likely be neutral-to-bearish given the flat but declining structure. The price remains below the major moving averages (200-day SMA/EMA), adding weight to the bearish bias.
Momentum / indicators
Momentum on the daily appears neutral-to-bearish (rallies are weaker and get rejected).
RSI on daily (if checked) is likely flat-to-slightly below neutral, not showing strong bullish divergence — therefore rallies are corrective.
Price is trading under the major moving averages on the daily (200MA acts as dynamic resistance), reinforcing the bearish bias unless reclaimed decisively.
Key daily levels
Immediate resistance / supply: 98.00 – 99.00 (daily rejection zone).
Invalidation for bearish view (daily close basis): daily close above 100.23 / decisive break and hold above 100.5–101 would flip bias.
Near-term support: 96.18 (first target / pivot).
Secondary targets if 96.18 breaks: 94.63, 93.67 then 89.62 as extended target on a strong bearish continuation.
Price-action scenarios
Bearish continuation (favored): Price respects the upper descending trendline, forms a daily rejection or bearish engulfing at ~98.0–99.0 → short with first target at 96.18, partial take at 94.63 if momentum continues.
Neutral / consolidation: Price oscillates 97–98.5, chopping in wedge — wait for a daily close below 96.60 or above 99.50 before taking directional trade.
Bullish breakout (less likely): Daily close above 100.23 with follow-through and volume would signal trend change toward 102+ — invalidate shorts and look for long setups only after retest.
In Summary
Trend: Bearish within a descending wedge.
Resistance: 98.50 → 99.00 → 100.23.
Support: 96.18 → 94.63 → 93.67 → 89.62.
Long-term bias: As long as 99–100 zone is not broken decisively, DXY is likely to head lower toward 94–90 levels in coming months.
Risk factor: Only a macro-driven breakout above 100.23 would invalidate the bearish outlook and shift momentum toward 102+.
One-line Conclusion
Daily bias = bearish while price stays under the 98–100 supply zone; preferred approach is to short on daily rejections or after a break+retest of 96.18, with extended targets at 94.6 → 93.7 → 89.6, and clear invalidation only on a daily close above ~100.23.
Note
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