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US30 Trade Plan – Range Breakout + Smart Money ManipulationI’m currently watching the US30 (Dow Jones Index) 🏦. On the 4-hour timeframe, we can see a strong uptrend forming — higher highs and higher lows 📈. Whether this trend continues remains to be seen, but having a solid trading plan is key ✅. Here’s mine: On the 30-minute timeframe, price is currently moving within a defined range. If we see a break above the range, followed by a retracement and failed retest of the range high, I’ll be looking for a long opportunity 🚀. If price instead breaks below the range, there could also be a short opportunity, though my preference is to stay long given the higher-timeframe bullish structure ⚙️. ⚠️ Keep an eye out for market manipulation — smart money algorithms often trigger fake breakouts to draw in buyers before sweeping liquidity and continuing the move. Stay alert and manage risk carefully. 📉 Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
PEPPERSTONE:US30Long
by fxtraderanthony
Dow Jones Returns to the 46,000 Level Since the beginning of the week, the Dow Jones Index has maintained a notable bullish bias, extending a two-day winning streak as the equity benchmark posts a gain of around 2.20% in the short term. For now, buying pressure has supported the price recovery following the sharp correction seen last Friday, which was triggered by the escalation of trade tensions between China and the United States. Although no major trade agreement has been announced, the aggressive tone of the tariff threats appears to have eased slightly, helping the market regain confidence in the short term. However, it’s important to note that if tensions escalate again, the Dow Jones could once more show heightened sensitivity to such developments, quickly reactivating selling pressure in the coming trading sessions. Uptrend at Risk The uptrend line, which had been sustained through much of 2025, has started to weaken following last Friday’s sharp correction. As a result, the average bullish momentum has entered a neutral zone in the short term. Currently, there is a recovery attempt from the previous downward move, though it has not yet been strong enough to bring prices back to recent highs. If buying pressure fails to remain decisive over the next few sessions, a period of market indecision could emerge, potentially leading to a sideways range in the short term. RSI The RSI line continues to hover around the 50 level, reflecting a neutral momentum over the past 14 sessions. As long as the indicator stays within this range, neutrality may dominate the market bias, leading to indecisive price movements in the coming days. MACD The MACD histogram also remains near the neutral (0) level, indicating that there is no clear directional strength in short-term moving averages. This reinforces the idea of indecision in the market, suggesting that the price action may remain range-bound without a defined trend in the near term. Key Levels to Watch: 46,790 points – Major Resistance: Corresponds to the all-time high area of the index. Buying activity approaching or surpassing this level could reactivate the bullish trend and establish a dominant buying bias. 45,741 points – Near-Term Barrier: Aligns with the 50-period simple moving average. As long as prices continue to fluctuate around this level, a new short-term consolidation range could form. 44,834 points – Critical Support: Represents the most stable neutral zone in recent weeks and coincides with the Ichimoku cloud boundary in the short term. A decisive break below this level could trigger a stronger bearish bias, putting the year-long uptrend at risk and potentially signaling the start of a new downward phase in the short term. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:US30
by FOREX.com
Dow Jones - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In The Short TermH4 - Strong bearish move. Uptrend line breakout. No opposite signs. Currently it looks like a pullback is happening. Expecting bearish continuation after pullback until the strong resistance zone holds. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀
CMCMARKETS:US30Z2025Short
by VladimirRibakov
Dow Jones US30 Analysis: Bullish Trend, Trade Plan📊 The US30 (Dow Jones) remains in a strong bullish trend, showing a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the 4-hour chart 📈. However, when viewed on the daily timeframe, price now appears somewhat overextended ⚠️. 🔎 Dropping down to the lower timeframes and applying the Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) indicator, it’s evident that price is trading well above VWAP, signaling a premium zone. The risk here is that traders may continue buying into strength without acknowledging that price could easily retrace back into VWAP. 💡 Remember — smart money buys at a discount, not at a premium. In bullish trends like this, patience is crucial. 📹 In the video, I outline my trade plan, which focuses on waiting for a healthy pullback and then looking for a bullish setup if the structure aligns in our favor. I’m not interested in chasing price when it’s this extended — instead, I prefer to wait for the retracement and enter at better value, reducing risk and improving trade quality 🎯. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage risk carefully.
FX:US30Long
by fxtraderanthony
US30: Late-Cycle Pop or Pullback Setup?The 𝐃𝐨𝐰 is pressing fresh highs into a historically soft seasonal window with stretched momentum and limited follow-through. I’m initiating/adding to a daily timeframe short aiming for a retrace back into prior breakout territory. My baseline path is a drift lower toward 44,500–44,000 (T1) and then the broader demand band near 43,000–42,2500 (T2), where I’ll reassess. This isn’t a “crash” call—just a tactical mean-reversion as macro tailwinds fade, breadth narrows and the first Fed cut shifts the narrative from “rates down” to “why they’re down.” Technicals: • Stretched swing: Price has stair-stepped higher with shallow pullbacks; we’re now extended above the 50/100-DMA stack with waning impulse on push days (smaller real bodies, upper wicks). • Local resistance: Repeated stalls into the same supply shelf. I’m leaning into the most recent failed extension and fading the box. Structure map: • Entry: around/into the failed-break zone 46.4k area. • Invalidation: daily close > recent spike highs around 47.7k-48.0k. • Targets: T1 45,000–44,500 (prior ATH retest / micro-POC region); T2 44,000–43,000. • Risk: 0.5–1.0R per add; scale in only on rejection prints or lower-highs. Fundamentals: 1) The first Fed cut is not automatically bullish. The Fed delivered a 25 bps cut in September and signaled more easing, which historically can coincide with late-cycle growth scares and choppier equity returns rather than a straight-line melt-up. The cut was framed around cooling activity and inflation progress.  2) Growth data is mixed—manufacturing still weak. The ISM Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction in August (48.7)—below the 50 expansion line—signaling ongoing softness in goods demand. That is typically a headwind for the Dow’s cyclical mix.  3) ES500 (S&P 500) breadth is narrow; concentration risk elevated. Mega-caps continue to dominate performance and index leadership, while equal-weight underperforms and concentration risk stays high—conditions that historically increase pullback vulnerability.  4) Valuations are rich versus history. FactSet’s mid-summer forward 12-month P/E for the S&P 500 hovered well above 5- and 10-year averages (>22x vs. ~19x/17x), leaving less cushion if growth wobbles or margins compress.  5) Sentiment & seasonality aren’t tailwinds. September/early Q4 are seasonally tricky—historically the weakest stretch for US equities—just as the market tries to price the path of cuts vs. growth.  6) Policy & trade headline risk. Tariff timelines and “reciprocal” duties remain in play (with officials signaling Aug-1 implementation and additional measures possible), a rolling overhang for global cyclicals and exporters tied into the Dow complex.  Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by AR33_
Dow at record highs, outperfoms peers! But are risks brewing?The Dow Jones DJIA surged to new record highs, driven by defensive sector strength and expectations of Fed rate cuts. Dow outperformed due to its heavier weighting in defensive sectors (industrials, financials, consumer staples), which are favoured during economic uncertainty and falling yields. Technical analysis suggests further upside potential, as investors seek stability and dividends in Dow components amid lingering recession risks. However, key support levels must hold to sustain the rally. The Dow has completed a V-shaped recovery, breaking above previous double-top highs from 2024/2025 (45,150), now acting as support. An open triangle pattern was identified, with the current move likely the fifth wave to the upside. The index trades above all major moving averages, confirming bullish momentum, but RSI shows hidden bullish divergence, supporting the case for continued upside only if support holds after a pullback. Dow has critical support at 45k, must hold to maintain bullish momentum. A drop below 45,581 could trigger a correction. Short-term upside shows 47k, with a major Fibonacci cluster and technical inflexion in focus. Intermediate levels sit at 46300/45900/45640, with important long-term Targets at 45k, 49500, 50k, 53k. Risks & Potential Scenarios Divergence: Despite strong momentum, technical divergence suggests a possible corrective move if the Dow falls below 45581. Bullish : Holding above 45581 and 45k supports further upside toward 47k and beyond. Bearish : A break below 45581 could trigger a deeper pullback before any renewed rally. Market Sentiment : The bond market’s caution contrasts with stock market optimism, so stay vigilant. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:US30Long
by ThinkMarkets
4
US30 Strategy: Sideways Range, Liquidity Run, and Entry Zones📊 Dow Jones (US30) Update 📊 The Dow Jones (US30) is currently bullish 🟢📈 and pushing higher on the 4H timeframe ⏰. We can see a value area forming 🏦, with price ranging sideways 🔄 and building liquidity above and below the range 💧. My plan is to watch for a potential liquidity run above the range 🚀, followed by a deep pullback 🔽 that could present a high-probability entry opportunity 🎯. ⚠️ This outlook is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. 📚
EIGHTCAP:US30Long
by fxtraderanthony
1
Dow Jones Overextended: Watching for an Institutional Unwind 📊 Dow Jones (US30) remains bullish 🟢, but in my view, it’s looking overextended 📈. Price has traded into a key level 🎯 where we could see a potential pullback, especially as we approach the end of the week 📅, when institutions and big money 💼 may begin unwinding positions. 👀 The play here is to watch for the high of the week/day ⏫ and look for a counter-trend reversal 🔄 that could drive price lower into the weekly close 📉. ⚠️ Keep in mind: Monday’s opening often creates a stop run 🛑 possibly offering a deeper pullback, giving us a double dose of liquidity grabs 💧. This sets the stage for a fairly deep retracement, which could present an opportunity to counter trend short if conditions align 🧩. 📌 My focus is on a break below the current range 🔓 as a trigger for potential entry. ⚠️ This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice 📚
PEPPERSTONE:US30Short
by fxtraderanthony
Dow Jones - Expecting Bullish Continuation In The Short TermH1 - Strong bullish momentum. No opposite signs. Until the two Fibonacci support zones hold I expect the price to move higher further. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EIGHTCAP:US30Long
by VladimirRibakov