Dollars And Sense! This Title Works $Many people wanting to know whats happening with bitcoin at the moment.
The information I provide you below will give you the answers that you are looking for, not everything can be told until we see certain movements and thats what you will find out below.
Many people have been asking.... yesterday we closed on a dragonfly Doji..... No we did not close on a dragonfly, is the answer.
A dragonfly doji is a candle that closes at the same price as the day before, you will see the candle with the long shadow below above the red arrow on the screen. This is not a textbook dragonfly doji and does not display a trend reversal. If you close on a dragonfly doji it is one of the strongest bullish signals for trend reversals but this is not what we have here.
However what the candle does show is some very aggressive buying and we also closed above the 200EMA this is a bullish signal and is now providing us some support.
If we are going to see an upward movement for tomorrow we must close above the black line on the chart which is currently causing us some strong resistance but if we close above it this becomes our support and money will pour back into the market.
Please see the volume with red arrow, volume isn't supporting an upward motion, its showing us we have been at a loss of volume for quite some time.
This is correct as the overall strength of crypto is dropping crytpo market is in a downward trend. This has to break for the market to return.
BTC Dropping to 6K will bring money back to the market and improve conditions for the rest of the year this is the result I am hoping for.
We must close over the .618fib (black line) on the chart to give us a bullish signal for the coming days, if not we may bounce off the 200EMA for a few days but if volume indicator and RSI don't increase then we will break the 200EMA and end up heading back down.
My thoughts are further downward motion as volume doesn't support an upward movement, we have no momentum.
I hope this brings some clarity to the current position of BTC, join me for further updates once the daily candle closes.
Dragonfly
Bitcoin chart is bearish?According to candlestick charting criteria, we could determine a few signs of bearish implication (reversal patterns):
1. Hanging man candlestick (could be interpreted as dragonfly doji)
2. Shooting star
3. Double top as a strong reversal pattern (blue dotted line)
And an additional bearish sign:
4. A decrease in price volume
These are enough signs for pattern reversal but, bear in mind, candlestick charting technique cannot say how long will reversal trend lasting.
Finally, this is not financial advice. Remember to always do your research before investing.
Will the 50EMA bounce up off the 200 or trigger a death cross?This is a big deciding moment...the price wants to flirt with the support line of 9500 on the depth chart that I spoke of in the last idea. however we see the last 4 hour candle closed as a dragonfly doji, which is indicative of a bull reversal...the RSI is also approaching the oversold zone...9500 is also still the price dip that if it were the deepest dip of the head and shoulder patterns right should would make its trendline parallel with the necklines trendline. best to do a test vuy as close to 9500 as the price is willing to let us get and be ready with an immediate stop loss if it goes under your buy in.
40 Day Consolidation into 'Black Swan'I really only publish charts so I can say "I told you so" to IamNomad later on.
The general idea is that price quickly retraces 50% of the dump while consolidating on RSI = 50. Also, watch for cloud support to hold until the bearish TK cross (Red over Green). A daily candle close inside the cloud with a bearish TK cross would be a reliable signal the fractal has decided to break down.
The other important aspect of this idea: when technical & fundamental factors combines, a large price move occurs due to high momentum . A break of the fractal post-consolidation, in addition to a Bearish news event, would give price plenty of momentum to retrace down the entire consolidation period and then some (see:bitfinex hack on August 2nd).
Are these perfect comparisons at the moment? No
Is this super early on and probably won't pan out? Yes
Are there enough comparisons here to even bother considering this? Yes
Will the RSI load later on when you hit play? No
Can an event be considered a Black Swan if it is predicted ahead of time? No
Do I want this to actually break down again? No
Some dates to consider:
Valentine's Day - Feb 14th
Chinese traders love pumping or dumping around American holidays.
SEC Winklevii ETF Announcement - March 11th
This would obviously break the "buy the rumor, sell the news" paradigm, so it's more probable we dump on the actual announcement than before. But, a dump may occur in an attempt to shake out weak hands so that institutional money can fill their bids. Considering a "No" from the SEC likely has 0 effect on the market (based on past SEC decisions of the ETF), I'd like to weigh a "Yes" from the SEC more heavily. The ETF is important because, like the SPDR ETF did for Gold, it will likely bring BTC trading availability to traders who were not otherwise in the market. There are also other BTC ETFs in the pipeline in various parts of the world. Should the Winklevii ETF fail to get approval, odds are that one ETF somewhere eventually will be approved.
Other:
Segwit
Who knows if/when this will complete. I expect shenanigans in price action if/when it gets close to being adopted. Watch that metric here - bitcoincore.org
People's Bank of China
Unlikely, but not impossible that China does finally decide to 'ban bitcoin'. Should this happen, expect mega dumps.
Trump ends the FED
Unlikely, but not impossible that Trump ends the FED quickly while coming to office sending digital currency through the roof or to the core.
Trump mentions Bitcoin in a Tweet
Unlikely, but not impossible that Trump tweets about bitcoin causing price to skyrocket from new user interest.
An exchange gets hacked
Always a possibility but I'm not sure if there are any exchanges that, if hacked, would actually move the price in a substantial way, other than the Chinese exchanges (OKcoin, Huobi, BTCChina).
SPY - DRAGONFLY DOJI FOLLOWS HAMMERYesterday, we highlighted a hammer candle on the SPY ETF and today we get a rare Dragonfly Doji candlestick pattern. Both patterns are reversal patterns, where bulls push stocks back to the opening levels, after initial weakness. This, paired with bottoming slow stochastics (for example) makes us bullish ahead of NFPs tomorrow.








