Get started

Dxyanalysis

LIQUIDITY SWEEP ON DXY BEFORE FALLINGIn this weekend dollar index analysis presentation, my thesis is sideways liquidity sweep before a daily bear flag breakout to the downside. Momentum and RSI on the higher timeframe are still to downside suggesting more selling. Price is still trapped below all our moving averages confirming our trend bias. On the weekly time frame we have a couple of inverted candles at a fib 0.618 support zone suggesting a likely reversal from a higher low but I think these inverted candles are liquidity sweeps from the 0.382 fib retrace resistance level. The daily chart has a strong shooting star which initiated selling pressure to the current trendline support level at 97.432 where our last daily candle was a doji indecision or pause. In the coming first trading week of September, I will be watching for clear break of the trendline on the daily chart and a confirmed breakout of the fib 0.618 support zone at 97.187 for an initial target of 96.702 and final target of 96.155. Thank you and have a great profitable trading new month. Cheers!!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by RICHINVESTOR
BEARISH CONTINUATION FOR DXYBearish Bias for CAPITALCOM:DXY Weekly context: The last up-move failed to print a new weekly high. Failing to create a shift in structure , so rallies are suspect. 4H structure: We had a hard bearish displacement (large down candles) that erased prior price action and kept going without delivering a “full” rebalance. That usually means the price target remains lower . The key zones on chart Breaker / sell zone: \~ 97.45–97.75 (teal box). This is the prior bullish OB that failed (now acting as resistance). Line in the sand: \~ 97.35–97.40 (dashed line through the teal). A decisive 4H close below here signals continuation. Upside cap / invalidation area: 98.12 (cyan line) up to \~ 98.20 . Above this, the bearish sentiment weakens. Primary downside draw: 96.478 (orange line). That’s the next obvious liquidity/inefficiency magnet on your chart. Trade plan Idea A — Rejection short from the breaker (preferred): Entry: look for a rejection setup inside 97.45–97.75 (e.g., 15m/1h bearish shift after a sweep). Stop: above the breaker and the cyan line ⇒ 98.12 (conservative) or 98.20 (safer). Targets: T1: 96.84 (take partials; pay yourself) T2: 96.47.00 Idea B — Continuation after the break (confirmation play): Trigger: a 4H close below \~97.35 . Entry: sell the first clean pullback into 97.35–97.45 . Stop: above 97.85–98.00 (back inside the breaker); conservative stop 98.12 . Target: 96.478 Management & invalidation If price rebalances deeper and closes 4H above 98.12–98.20 , the breaker is failing. Flatten shorts; reassess (potential squeeze toward 98.60–99.00 is then on deck). If price hesitates at 97.00 , trail above the last 1H swing high to protect realized PnL while aiming for 96.478 . News risk: Your chart flags upcoming US data (icons). Expect wicks; use hard stops and consider sizing down around releases. Why this makes sense * The strong displacement leg sets the draw lower. * The teal box is a bearish breaker created by a failed bullish structure—ideal for “sell on rally.” * The market rebalanced the prior up-close leg already; the lack of a symmetrical rebalance on the down-leg favors continuation to the next target ( 96.478 ). One-liner: Bearish while 4H stays under 98.12 ; sell rallies into 97.45–97.75 or sell a 4H close-and-pullback below 97.35 ; scale out 97.20 → 97.00 → 96.80 → 96.478 ; hard stop above 98.12–98.20 . *Not financial advice. Size appropriately and stick to your stop.* PLEASE PUA!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by JP_Tru
DXY Neutral -BearishCAPITALCOM:DXY Quick read / bias Near-term neutral → biased bearish. Price has failed to produce a clean reversal from the large consolidation at the top, shows a series of lower-highs and liquidity hunts (marked ellipses / Imbalance repairs on the chart), and a visible “downside pressure” supply region above. The path of least resistance is down unless price reclaims the supply/consolidation zone above ~98.6–99.2. ------------------------------------------------ Key levels (from the chart) Major consolidation / supply: ~99.2 – 99.8 (big-picture resistance). Downside pressure / mid supply: ~98.5 – 98.8 (area to sell into). Recent micro highs: 98.39, 98.19, 97.99 (loci for liquidity). Current price (chart right): ~97.18. Recent local low/liquidity grab: 96.834. Weekly void / structural bottom to watch: 96.478 (labelled on chart). Invalidation for bearish thesis: close/hold above 99.2 (reclaim of consolidation). ------------------------------------------------ How I read the structure (step-by-step) Price spent time in a higher consolidation zone and then failed to reverse higher — that is a distribution / supply footprint rather than demand. The chart shows several short liquidity hunts above swing highs (grey ellipses) and subsequent strong selling — classic stop-hunts into supply then continuation lower. Imbalances / small supply boxes on the chart mark places the market tends to retest before continuing — these are high-probability sell zones on rallies. The sequence of lower highs and a recent push down to ~96.83 (buyer defence) gives a local support but not yet a valid reversal signal. Until price chops through the weekly void (96.478) or reclaims the supply, expect range/biased-down behavior. ------------------------------------------------ Trade setups (actionable — use your 5-min/1-min workflow) I’ll give two primary setups: a higher-probability short (sell the rally) and a contrarian long (mean-reversion). Use 5-min to identify displacement into the zone and 1-min for the exact micro reversal entry. ------------------------------------------------ Setup A — Primary: Short on rally into supply (preferred) Why: Market structure + downside pressure + Imbalance above make rallies into supply favourable. Area to enter (limit or wait for 1-min reversal): 98.00 – 98.20 (ideal limit ~98.10). Stop loss: 98.45 (just above the 98.39 / structure swing and above the Imbalance top). Targets (scale): T1: 97.00 — first logical demand and psychological level. T2: 96.50 — deeper swing support / mid structural level. T3: 96.478 — weekly void bottom (big target if momentum continues). Risk / reward (example entry 98.10 → stop 98.45): Risk = 0.35 index points. R:T1 ≈ 1.10 / 0.35 ≈ 3.14:1. R:T2 ≈ 1.60 / 0.35 ≈ 4.57:1. R:T3 ≈ 1.622 / 0.35 ≈ 4.63:1. Trigger: 5-min displacement into the 98.0–98.2 zone, then 1-min rejection pattern (pin bar / engulf / two-bar reversal) and ideally a filled Imbalance or wick extension that fails. Enter limit at Imbalance top or use a short after 1-min confirmation. ------------------------------------------------ Setup B — Secondary: Mean-reversion long (countertrend) Why: Buyers defended the 96.83 area previously; a clean, verified micro reversal at lower support can produce a quick retrace. This is lower probability vs the sell-the-rally plan and should be sized smaller. Area to enter (limit/1-min confirmation): 96.75 – 96.95 (example limit 96.85). Stop loss: 96.45 (below the 96.48 weekly void and the local wick). Targets (scale): T1: 97.40 (near recent chop / first structure). T2: 97.99 (previous micro high). T3: 98.39 (if momentum shifts to reclaim structure). Risk / reward (example entry 96.85 → stop 96.45): Risk = 0.40. R:T1 ≈ 0.55 / 0.40 ≈ 1.38:1. R:T2 ≈ 1.14 / 0.40 ≈ 2.85:1. R:T3 ≈ 1.54 / 0.40 ≈ 3.85:1. Trigger: Look for a 5-min exhaustion and 1-min clean micro reversal (two-bar bullish rejection) ideally with buy volume or a wick that holds. Keep size smaller than on shorts. ------------------------------------------------ Intraday scalp idea (quick) Long scalp on a 1-min reversal after a displacement down to ~96.83 with tight stop under the wick (e.g. 5–8 ticks) and target 97.20–97.40. Use only if price shows clean microstructure and momentum. Trade management rules Positioning: Risk a fixed % per trade (e.g., 0.5–1% of account) and size accordingly. The short setup has high RR — size to risk tolerance. Partial take: Take ~50% at T1, move stop to breakeven, let remainder run to T2/T3. If price stalls at T1: tighten stop to lock profit or exit if structure shows weakness. If price breaks and holds above 98.60 / 99.2: exit shorts and flip to neutral/bullish plan — the initial bearish thesis is invalidated. Use your timeframe combo: identify the displacement on 5-min, execute 1-min entry confirmation. ------------------------------------------------ Invalidation / alternative scenario Bearish invalidation: clean, sustained close above 98.6–99.2 (consolidation re-claim) — if that happens, the market likely shifts to bullish and short ideas should be abandoned. Bullish trigger: rally above 99.2 with follow-through and a higher low -> targets back toward 99.8. ------------------------------------------------ Final prediction Over the next sessions I expect failed rallies into 98.0–98.6 to be sold, which should gravitate price toward 97.00 → 96.50 → 96.48 if momentum confirms. Countertrend longs are possible as scalps/swing trades off 96.8–96.48, but they should be treated as lower-probability and sized smaller. If price instead reclaims and holds >99.2, the bearish bias is invalidated.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by JP_Tru
DXY FRGNT WEEKLY CHART ANALYSIS - DXY Q3 W38 Y25🌍FRGNT WEEKLY CHART ANALYSIS - DXY Q3 W38 Y25 📊 DXY FRGNT Breakdown + Impact on GBP, EUR, and Cross Pairs 1. Higher Timeframe Context (Weekly) Trend: Bearish → clear lower highs & lower lows since mid-summer. Unmitigated Imbalance (IMB): 99–101 zone above current price → acts as a long-term liquidity magnet but not yet tested. Bias: Weakness dominates until price proves otherwise. 2. Daily Timeframe Supply Zone: 98.200–98.500 (aligns with Daily 50 EMA). Demand Zone: 96.800–97.000 (next liquidity draw). Expectation: Retrace into 98.2 supply, then continuation lower toward 97.0 demand. 3. Intraday (4H) Supply Overlap: 97.800–98.200 (Daily + 4H confluence). Structure: Still bearish, repeated rejections from the 50 EMA. Projection: Price likely taps 98.0 area, then drives into 97.0 demand. Summary Bias: Bearish. Watch for liquidity sweep above 98.0 → rejection → sell setups toward 97.0 demand. 🌍 Impact on GBP, EUR, and Cross Pairs GBPUSD Effect: Dollar weakness supports bullish setups. Expect retrace into 1.2670–1.2720 demand before price extends higher. Targets: 1.2800–1.2850, with potential stretch toward 1.2950. Narrative: As long as DXY stays capped under 98.2, GBPUSD should continue higher. EURUSD Effect: Also benefits from USD weakness, though less aggressively than GBP. Look for longs around 1.0850–1.0880 demand. Targets: 1.0950–1.1000. Narrative: Similar structure to GBPUSD, but GBP is likely to outperform EUR. EURGBP Effect: GBP stronger than EUR → bearish bias. Shorts valid below 0.8520, aiming for liquidity under 0.8430–0.8450. Narrative: Even if both EUR and GBP rise against USD, GBP is leading. Other USD Cross Pairs USDJPY: Likely to weaken, targeting 144.50–145.00 liquidity. USDCAD: Bearish pressure, could reach 1.3600 demand. USDCHF: Lower toward 0.8850–0.8900 demand. ✅ Overall Picture DXY Bearish = Favor longs on GBPUSD & EURUSD. GBP stronger than EUR = EURGBP shorts are attractive. JPY & CHF weak = Pairs like GBPJPY and EURJPY can push higher. 👉 In short: DXY’s weakness is the engine, driving GBPUSD and EURUSD higher. The Pound has the edge, making EURGBP a sell candidate while GBPJPY becomes a standout buy. TVC:DXY FRGNT
TVC:DXY
by JCFRGNT
DXY at Major Support – Dollar Ready to Rebound?Today, I want to analyze the DXY index ( TVC:DXY ) for you. First, I must say that this week, US indexes can have an impact on the DXY index trend . US indexes to be released this week: Core PPI m/m: Tomorrow PPI m/m: Tomorrow Core CPI m/m: Thursday CPI m/m: Thursday CPI y/y: Thursday Unemployment Claims: Thursday Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations: Friday The DXY Index is currently moving near the Support zone($97.989-$97.834) , Yearly Support(2) , and the lower line of the descending channel . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the DXY index has managed to complete microwave 5 of the main wave C . The corrective structure is of the Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) type. Also, we can see the Regular Divergence (RD+) between consecutive valleys . I expect the DXY index to rise to at least $98.07(First Target) before the US indexes are announced. Second Target: $98.56 Stop Loss(SL): $96.997 Note: With the DXY index rising, we can expect a correction in Gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ), Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ), and major Forex pairs (dollar strength). Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. U.S. Dollar Index Analyze (DXYUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
27
US Dollar Index Drops to 7-Week Low Ahead of Key Inflation DataUS Dollar Index (DXY) Drops to 7-Week Low Ahead of Key Inflation Data As the US Dollar Index (DXY) chart shows, the value of the USD against a basket of other currencies has fallen below 97.30 – its lowest level since late July. The reasons lie in market sentiment ahead of major data releases: → On Wednesday at 15:30 GMT+3, Producer Price Index (PPI) figures will be published; a month ago they came in extremely high. → On Thursday at 15:30 GMT+3, Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures are due. These releases are particularly significant as next week the Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on interest rates – a 25-basis-point cut is widely expected. Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart On 18 August, we identified a descending channel (shown in red) based on a sequence of lower highs and lower lows → it remains valid. In addition, our base scenario suggested that the index might test one of the quartile lines (QL and/or QH) dividing the channel → indeed, since then the QH line has been tested several times (red arrow), convincingly acting as resistance. What Next? Bearish case: → Lower highs and lows throughout the second half of August indicate that sellers are in control of the DXY market. → The black arrow marks bearish momentum that broke through support at 98.05 last week. → The drop was sharp (a sign of imbalance in favour of sellers), and yesterday the 98.05 level acted as resistance. Bullish case: → The DXY has dropped into the median zone, where supply and demand often balance. Buyers may step in, viewing current levels as attractive for entry. → The RSI may potentially form a bullish divergence. → The latest candle on the right shows a long lower wick (a bullish pin bar pattern), underlining buyers’ determination. Given the above, we could expect the DXY to hover around the median area. However, the upcoming US inflation reports could trigger volatility across financial markets. A test of support at 97.15 could occur. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:DXY
by FXOpen
1
DXY Strategy Unlocked — Will Bulls Control the Next Swing?⚡ US Dollar Index (DXY) Swing/Day Trade Setup ⚡ 💹 Asset: DXY (US Dollar Index) 📈 Plan: Bullish — Pending Order Strategy 📊 US Dollar Index (DXY) Real-Time Data Daily Change: +0.55 (+0.56%) Day's Range: 97.62 – 98.60 52-Week Range: 96.38 – 110.18 🔔 Trade Setup (Thief Plan) Breakout Entry: 98.800 ⚡ (Set TradingView alarm to catch the move in real time) Stop Loss: “Thief SL” @ 24,000.0 (only after breakout confirmation). 📝 Adjust your SL based on your strategy & risk appetite, Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s). Target: Resistance/overbought zone at 100.20 🎩 Escape target: 100.000 (take profits before market flips). 😰 Fear & Greed Sentiment Index Level: 64 (Greed) Market Mood: Moderately greedy, driven by: 📉 Net new 52-week highs vs. lows (bullish) 📊 VIX near averages (neutral) 🛡️ Bonds underperforming stocks (risk-on) 📈 Junk bond demand narrowing spreads (greed signal) 🌍 Fundamental & Macro Score Fed Rate Cut Probability: 90% (Sept 18 FOMC, 25 bps cut expected) Key Drivers: ✅ Labor Data: NFP (Sept 5) is crucial for direction. ⚠️ Trade Policy: Court ruled Trump tariffs illegal (appeal pending). ⬇️ Consumer Confidence: Michigan Index at 3-month low (58.2). ⬆️ ISM Manufacturing: Ahead of release, possible USD support. Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical tensions supporting USD. 🐂 Overall Market Outlook Score Bullish (Long): 60% Bearish (Short): 40% Bias: Short-term bullish as long as 97.60 holds. USD rebound + bond yield strength + equity weakness backing USD. ⚠️ Risk: Break below 97.60 → next target 96.55 (bearish). 💡 Key Takeaways 🎯 NFP Report (Sept 5) = decisive catalyst. ⚖️ Fed debates + trade policy = medium-term uncertainty. 📉 Breakout above 98.80 is the key to bullish continuation. 🔍 Related Markets to Watch FX:EURUSD FX:GBPUSD FX:USDJPY OANDA:XAUUSD CAPITALCOM:US30 ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #DXY #USD #DollarIndex #Forex #DayTrading #SwingTrading #BreakoutStrategy #ThiefTrader #TradingSetup
TVC:DXYLong
by The-Thief
DXY Intraday Overview- US Dollar Index (DXY) breached the symmetrical triangle downwards and sustained downwards. - It indicates that sellers are still strong, hence the structure remains downwards. 🔽 If the immediate support level of 97.80 (fib level 0.786) is broken again, then the price will continue its fall to the next support zone between 97.56 - 97.50 🔼 However, if the price manages to recover and break through the resistance level of 97.90, we can expect a further rise to the level of 98.00.
FXOPEN:DXYShort
by Nadia_farhat
DXY Analysis: Resistances Holding Strong, Is the Downtrend Back?Today, I want to analyze one of the important indices of the financial markets , the U.S. Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ), for you, which can be a guide for taking short-long positions in the Forex , Futures , and even Crypto markets. The DXY index fell by about -1.2% after Jerome Powell began talking about the possibility of a rate cut in September , but as the new week began, the DXY index started to rise again. If we look at the DXY Index chart on the 1-hour time frame , we can see that the DXY Index reacted well to the Resistances and started to decline. The Resistances for the DXY Index include: Resistance zone($98.843-$98.575) Monthly Pivot Point 100_SMA(Daily) In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that this increase in the DXY Index over the last two days has been in the form of corrective waves . The structure of the corrective waves is Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5). By breaking the Support lines , we can confirm the end of the corrective waves . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks . I expect the DXY Index to decline to at least the Support zone($97.989-$97.834) AFTER breaking the Support lines . Second Target: $97.650 Third Target: $97.450 Stop Loss(SL): $99.000 Note: With the DXY Index declining, we can expect more hope for a weakening of the U.S Dollar's strength in the major Forex pairs . Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. U.S. Dollar Index Analyze (DXYUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYShort
by pejman_zwin
15
The Dollar's Descent: Understanding Historic WeaknessThe U.S. dollar, long considered the world's premier reserve currency and a symbol of American economic might, finds itself in unprecedented territory as it continues to hover near all-time lows against a basket of major currencies. This sustained weakness represents more than just a numerical decline on foreign exchange charts; it signals a fundamental shift in global economic dynamics, monetary policy effectiveness, and international confidence in American fiscal management. The implications of this historic depreciation extend far beyond currency traders and central banks, touching everything from household purchasing power to geopolitical relationships and the future architecture of the global financial system. The current situation represents a culmination of multiple converging factors that have been building over several years. The dollar's decline hasn't occurred in isolation but rather as part of a complex interplay between domestic fiscal policies, international trade dynamics, shifting reserve currency preferences, and evolving global economic power structures. Understanding this phenomenon requires examining not just the immediate catalysts but also the deeper structural changes that have eroded the dollar's traditional sources of strength. The Anatomy of the Dollar's Decline The measurement of the dollar's value against other currencies typically relies on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a weighted basket of six major currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. When analysts refer to the dollar approaching all-time lows, they're observing a sustained depreciation that has pushed this index to levels not seen in decades, with some bilateral exchange rates reaching historic extremes. The technical aspects of this decline reveal a currency under persistent selling pressure. Foreign exchange markets, which trade over six trillion dollars daily, have witnessed consistent dollar weakness across multiple timeframes and against virtually all major and emerging market currencies. This broad-based depreciation suggests that the issue isn't merely tactical positioning by traders but reflects fundamental concerns about the dollar's intrinsic value and future trajectory. Several immediate factors have contributed to this weakness. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, particularly its approach to interest rates and quantitative easing, has played a crucial role. While other central banks have moved more aggressively to combat inflation or support their currencies, the Fed's policies have often prioritized domestic economic stability over currency strength. This divergence in monetary policy has created interest rate differentials that make holding dollars less attractive relative to other currencies offering higher yields. The massive fiscal stimulus measures implemented in recent years have also weighed heavily on the dollar. The expansion of the federal deficit and the dramatic increase in the national debt have raised questions about the long-term sustainability of American fiscal policy. International investors, who must consider currency risk when purchasing U.S. assets, have grown increasingly concerned about the potential for future dollar depreciation as a means of reducing the real burden of this debt. Trade dynamics have further complicated the dollar's position. The persistent U.S. trade deficit means that more dollars flow out of the country to purchase foreign goods than flow in from exports. This structural imbalance creates constant selling pressure on the dollar as these funds are converted into other currencies. Additionally, the weaponization of the dollar through sanctions and financial restrictions has prompted some nations to seek alternatives for international trade settlement, reducing demand for dollars in global commerce. Historical Context and Precedents To fully appreciate the significance of the dollar's current weakness, it's essential to examine historical precedents and the evolution of the dollar's role in the global economy. The Bretton Woods system, established in 1944, positioned the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency, backed by gold and serving as the anchor for international monetary stability. When this system collapsed in 1971, the dollar transitioned to a fiat currency, deriving its value from the strength of the U.S. economy and the confidence of global markets rather than gold reserves. Throughout its modern history, the dollar has experienced several significant periods of weakness. The stagflation of the 1970s saw the dollar lose considerable value as inflation soared and economic growth stagnated. The Plaza Accord of 1985 deliberately weakened the dollar to address trade imbalances, demonstrating that currency depreciation could be a policy tool rather than merely a market outcome. The financial crisis of 2008 triggered another period of dollar weakness as the Federal Reserve implemented unprecedented monetary easing. However, the current situation differs from these historical episodes in several important ways. Previous periods of dollar weakness often occurred within a framework where the dollar's fundamental role as the global reserve currency remained unchallenged. Today, that supremacy faces genuine competition from alternative currencies and payment systems. The rise of the euro, the internationalization of the Chinese yuan, and the emergence of digital currencies all represent potential challenges to dollar hegemony that didn't exist during previous cycles of weakness. The geopolitical context has also shifted dramatically. During past periods of dollar weakness, the United States maintained relatively stable relationships with its major trading partners and allies. Current tensions, trade disputes, and the fragmentation of the global economy into competing blocs have created an environment where dollar alternatives are not just economically viable but politically desirable for some nations. This represents a structural change that could make the current period of weakness more persistent and potentially irreversible in some respects. Global Economic Implications The ramifications of the dollar's sustained weakness extend throughout the global economy, creating both opportunities and challenges for different stakeholders. For American consumers, a weaker dollar translates directly into reduced purchasing power for imported goods. Everything from electronics to clothing to automobiles becomes more expensive as the dollar's depreciation increases the cost of foreign-produced items. This imported inflation adds to domestic price pressures, potentially eroding living standards and complicating monetary policy decisions. American businesses face a mixed picture. Exporters benefit from a competitive advantage as their goods become relatively cheaper in foreign markets, potentially boosting sales and market share. Multinational corporations with significant overseas earnings see those profits translate into more dollars when repatriated, improving their financial results. However, companies reliant on imported inputs face higher costs, and those with international supply chains must navigate increased complexity and currency risk. The impact on financial markets has been profound and multifaceted. Equity markets have shown remarkable resilience, with some sectors benefiting from the currency tailwind to earnings. However, bond markets face challenges as foreign investors demand higher yields to compensate for currency risk, potentially increasing borrowing costs for the U.S. government and corporate issuers. Commodity markets, traditionally priced in dollars, have seen significant price increases as the weakening currency makes raw materials more expensive in dollar terms. For emerging markets, the dollar's weakness presents both opportunities and risks. Countries with dollar-denominated debt benefit from the reduced real burden of their obligations, providing fiscal relief and potentially enabling increased domestic investment. However, those nations that have traditionally relied on dollar stability for their own monetary frameworks face uncertainty and potential instability. The shift away from dollar dependence requires careful management and potentially painful adjustments to monetary and fiscal policies. Developed economies have responded to the dollar's weakness in various ways. The European Union has seen the euro strengthen significantly, creating challenges for European exporters but providing relief from imported inflation. Japan faces particular difficulties as yen strength threatens its export-dependent economy, prompting potential intervention in currency markets. These dynamics have strained international cooperation and raised the specter of competitive devaluations reminiscent of the 1930s. The Reserve Currency Question Perhaps the most significant long-term implication of the dollar's sustained weakness concerns its status as the world's primary reserve currency. This privileged position has provided the United States with what former French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d'Estaing called an "exorbitant privilege" – the ability to borrow in its own currency, maintain persistent trade deficits, and exercise significant influence over global financial conditions. The erosion of confidence in the dollar threatens this special status. Central banks worldwide have been gradually diversifying their reserves away from dollars, increasing holdings of gold, euros, yuan, and other assets. While the dollar still accounts for the majority of global reserves, its share has been declining steadily. This trend, if it continues, could fundamentally alter the global financial architecture and reduce American influence over international economic affairs. The search for alternatives has accelerated in recent years. The Chinese yuan's inclusion in the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights basket marked a significant milestone in its internationalization. Digital currencies, both central bank digital currencies and cryptocurrencies, offer potential alternatives for international trade settlement and value storage. Regional payment systems and bilateral currency swap agreements have proliferated, creating pathways for trade that bypass the dollar entirely. However, the transition away from dollar dominance faces significant obstacles. The depth and liquidity of U.S. financial markets remain unmatched, providing essential infrastructure for global finance. The rule of law, property rights protection, and regulatory framework in the United States continue to attract international investment despite currency concerns. No single alternative currency currently possesses all the attributes necessary to fully replace the dollar's multifaceted role in the global economy. Policy Responses and Future Scenarios Policymakers face difficult choices in responding to the dollar's weakness. Traditional approaches to currency support, such as raising interest rates or intervening in foreign exchange markets, carry significant economic costs and may prove ineffective against structural pressures. The Federal Reserve must balance its domestic mandate for price stability and full employment with the international implications of its policies, a task made more complex by the dollar's global role. Fiscal policy presents another set of challenges and opportunities. Addressing the structural factors undermining dollar confidence would require difficult decisions about spending, taxation, and debt management. Political polarization and competing economic priorities make comprehensive fiscal reform challenging, yet the consequences of inaction could be severe. The possibility of a dollar crisis, while still remote, has moved from the realm of theoretical speculation to a risk requiring serious contingency planning. International cooperation could play a crucial role in managing the transition to a new monetary order. Multilateral agreements on exchange rate management, similar to but more flexible than the Bretton Woods system, might provide stability during a period of adjustment. However, the current geopolitical climate makes such cooperation difficult to achieve. The fragmentation of the global economy into competing blocs may accelerate the development of alternative currency systems, further undermining the dollar's position. Looking ahead, several scenarios could unfold. A gradual, managed decline in the dollar's dominance might allow for smooth adjustment to a multipolar currency system, with several major currencies sharing reserve status. This outcome would require careful coordination and policy discipline from major economies. Alternatively, a more chaotic transition could occur if confidence in the dollar erodes rapidly, potentially triggering financial instability and economic disruption. The technological revolution in finance adds another dimension of uncertainty. Central bank digital currencies could reshape international monetary relations in ways that are difficult to predict. The adoption of blockchain technology and smart contracts might enable new forms of international trade settlement that don't require traditional reserve currencies. These innovations could either accelerate the dollar's decline or, if led by the United States, potentially reinforce its position through digital dominance. Conclusion: Navigating Uncharted Waters The dollar's hover near all-time lows represents more than a cyclical fluctuation in currency markets; it signals a potential inflection point in the global economic order. The convergence of fiscal pressures, monetary policy challenges, geopolitical tensions, and technological disruption has created conditions unlike any previously experienced in the modern era of fiat currencies. The implications extend beyond exchange rates to encompass fundamental questions about economic governance, international cooperation, and the distribution of global economic power. For investors, businesses, and policymakers, navigating this environment requires careful consideration of both immediate risks and long-term structural changes. Hedging strategies, diversification approaches, and policy frameworks developed during periods of dollar strength may prove inadequate in a world where the greenback's supremacy can no longer be assumed. The ability to adapt to multiple possible futures, rather than betting on a single outcome, becomes essential for managing risk and capturing opportunities. The social and political implications of the dollar's decline deserve equal attention to the economic aspects. Currency strength has long been intertwined with national prestige and political power. A sustained period of dollar weakness could reshape domestic politics, alter international alliances, and influence the trajectory of globalization itself. The psychological impact of losing reserve currency status, should it occur, would reverberate through American society in ways that extend far beyond financial markets. As the world watches the dollar's trajectory with a mixture of concern and opportunism, the need for thoughtful analysis and measured response becomes paramount. The current situation demands neither panic nor complacency but rather a clear-eyed assessment of changing realities and proactive adaptation to new circumstances. The dollar's decline may mark the end of one era and the beginning of another, but the nature of that new era remains to be written by the collective actions of governments, markets, and societies worldwide. The path forward will likely be characterized by increased volatility, structural adjustments, and the gradual emergence of new monetary arrangements. Whether this transition enhances global economic stability or triggers periodic crises will depend largely on the wisdom and cooperation of global leaders. The dollar's current weakness serves as both a warning and an opportunity – a signal that the old order is passing and a chance to build something better in its place. The challenge lies in managing this transition while maintaining the stability and prosperity that the dollar-based system, despite its flaws, has helped facilitate for decades. In this context, the dollar's hover near all-time lows should be understood not as an isolated phenomenon but as part of a broader transformation of the global economy. The outcomes of this transformation remain uncertain, but its importance cannot be overstated. The decisions made in response to the dollar's weakness will shape international economic relations for generations to come, making this one of the most consequential periods in modern monetary history.
ICEUS:DX1!
by bryandowningqln
US Dollar Index (DXY) Rises Ahead of Fed Chair’s SpeechUS Dollar Index (DXY) Rises Ahead of Fed Chair’s Speech On Monday, we: → noted that the US Dollar Index (DXY) was consolidating at the start of a week packed with key events; → outlined a descending channel (shown in red); → highlighted that the price was trading around the channel’s median line, signalling a balanced market; → suggested that a test of one of the quarter lines (QL or QH), which divide the channel into four parts, could take place. As the DXY chart indicates, since then the balance has shifted in favour of buyers, with the price forming an upward trajectory (shown in purple lines) and breaking through short-term resistance R (which has now turned into support, as marked by the blue arrow). Support line S remains relevant. Today brings the key event that may have the greatest impact on the US Dollar Index (DXY) this week – Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. This appearance is particularly significant because: → it is likely to be Powell’s last speech after seven years as Fed Chair, with his term expiring in May amid ongoing tensions with President Trump; → market participants will closely monitor the tone of his remarks, as a rate cut is expected in September, while recent economic data – namely the rise in the Producer Price Index – suggest that the US economy could face renewed inflationary pressures due to Trump’s tariffs. Technical analysis of the DXY chart From a bullish perspective, in the short term the US dollar is advancing within the purple channel, supported by: → the lower boundary of this channel; → the demand imbalance zone in favour of buyers (shown in green), confirmed by yesterday’s sharp bullish candle. From a bearish perspective: → the RSI has entered overbought territory; → bullish momentum may fade after a breakout above the QH line; → a key resistance at the 99 level lies nearby – a level that reclaimed its role as resistance at the beginning of August (indicated by black arrows). A corrective pullback in the US Dollar Index (DXY) could happen after its rally to the highest level since 6 August. However, the further trajectory will largely depend on Powell’s words this evening. According to Forex Factory, the speech is scheduled for 17:00 GMT+3. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:DXY
by FXOpen
1
DXY ready to drop ?DXY trade setup for today : Before we look at potential entry in this pair first let’s look at multiple timeframe analysis in this market. Monthly: 100.24 Monthly resistance price has got rejection strongly from the top Weekly: Bearish engulfed formation with strong liquidity grab Daily: A sharp rejection with liquidity grab from the resistance Entry timeframe 4H : Upon retest of the order block, market has got rejected and potentially breaking out of the market structure to continue to drop to support level. Possible trade recommendation : Bearish entry with SL above sessions high
TVC:DXYShort
by ForexWizard01
US Dollar Index (DXY) in Balance Ahead of Key EventsUS Dollar Index (DXY) in Balance Ahead of Key Events In our previous analysis of the US Dollar Index (DXY), we: → outlined a descending channel (red) based on a sequence of lower highs and lows; → anticipated a move towards the median line of this channel. As of 18 August, the DXY is trading around the median of the channel and is forming a contracting triangle pattern (blue). The RSI remains close to the neutral 50 level, indicating equilibrium between supply and demand. This balance may be ruined given upcoming events: → Today, discussions at the White House between Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and European leaders will focus on the conflict in Ukraine. The outcome may provide clarity following the Trump–Putin meeting on 15 August. → On Wednesday at 21:00 GMT+3, the FOMC minutes will be released. Markets will look for guidance on the likelihood of a September rate cut after last Thursday’s stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) print, which some interpret as a signal of potential inflationary pressures from new trade tariffs. Market participants should anticipate volatility, with price impulses possible in either direction. The base scenario for the week is a test of one of the quarter lines (QL/QH) within the channel, consistent with the broader US dollar weakening trend in place since January 2025. A breakout of QL or QH line and sustained move away from the channel median would indicate a shift in sentiment and the potential for a directional move beyond the current structure. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:DXY
by FXOpen
1
DXY Comprehensive AnalysisThe US Dollar Index (DXY) on the 4H chart remains under pressure, trading near 97.71 and holding below the key resistance zone of 98.20–98.30, aligned with the 20 SMA (middle Bollinger band) and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement (97.78), signaling a firm bearish bias. Price action might continue to respect the descending trend, with recent candles showing rejection from the upper boundary and pointing toward a possible retest of 97.50–97.10 support levels. However, it will be crucial for prices to breach the fib level 0.786 and sustain lower. Bollinger Bands are moderately compressed, suggesting controlled volatility, while RSI at 42 indicates weak momentum with a hidden bearish divergence (prices making lower highs and RSI making constant highs), reinforcing downside potential. Unless the index reclaims 98.30 on strong buying, intraday traders may look for short opportunities on pullbacks, targeting 97.50 and then 97.10. With no major data releases today, technical levels are likely to drive moves, and continued dollar weakness could support risk assets like equities and commodities, particularly gold and emerging market currencies.
FXOPEN:DXYShort
by Nadia_farhat