Bitcoin BTC - Deep Breath, Exhale Sloooowwwlly...BTC has everybody in a twisted mental frenzy right now. Up! Down! All-around!!! But I want to assure you, it will be here tomorrow. And, the next day. And, the next. Unless we get a ballistic warhead screamin' down upon us tonight from above with a Red Star or cryptic lettering! But back to business. Just so you know, I don't trade BTC, because BTC doesn't have the profit multipliers that the alts do. So why would I post this? Because BTC is the crypto that I study and research the most. Bitcoin is what drives the alts. If BTC doesn't move, then it's very difficult for anything else to have sustained growth. I was going to post (too tired) this the day before "some of" the shorts got wrecked and we all woke up to, "The Surge." I was really sensing the up pressure, but never expected that sudden of a shot. There's so much more going on with crypto right now behind the scenes. Honestly, I've been waiting for it to go lower, possible under $5K. The weaker the market, the more a good long trader will pounce. This post is about my optimism for BTC's future. Scourer the news. The moves into the crypto-sphere from the institutional side is astounding. It's just going to take time to see it make a big dent. So, what's a trader to do? $6,500 to $6,800 was an incredible entry point for bitcoin, and obviously somebody felt the same way... Bottom line, don't trade with fear and emotion, trade with a strategy. Simple strategy is to accumulate at main levels of support and resistance on the way down, with very low RSI values. On the way up, stay out of the whipsaws, let the smoke clear for a bit. Watch for good RSI entry points again of 30% or less or if a really good break-out pattern develops. You don't always need to be trading, or even have a position for that matter. Sometimes it's better to hang on the sidelines with a pile of cash, waiting patiently for a good entry position. The market will move eventually, it always does. Personally, I feel people have been waiting, everybody looking around at everybody else, like, "You goin' in?" "Thinkin' 'bout it." Then it becomes, "I'll go if you go!" Next thing you know, we're blasting thru $20K. Could be three months or three years, but when it happens, it's gonna be violent.
We still may be in for more pain, a lot's going on in the world right now. Maybe more chaos means more people are afraid of fiat and will transition more into crypto?
But hell, at the moment, enjoy the ride!
My personal prediction for BTC before the end of the year? I think we can push $30K with an overall market cap between $1T - $1.5T. That would be a pretty good run going into 2019.
This post is meant more for long-term traders. Not so much for short-term or day traders. The psychology is the same, but you're dealing in nano-seconds with day trading.
Emotion
Probability vs PossibilityThe battle that wages on every market, in every trade... Probability versus Possibility. Now I've seen SO MANY predictions and forecasts lately telling of breakouts, moons and lambos - It's disgusting. Why? Because while ANYTHING can happen (possibility), one must consider the chances of these events occurring (probability) . Now i don't mean to insult your intelligence by defining the words in such a basic means, I'm merely setting an argument. Let's consider Bitcoin for a moment, and where it is currently. IT IS STILL IN A DOWN-CHANNEL. It has NOT broken the resistance as of yet, and every time it's tried since it's fall in December, it has fallen further. Now the healthy channel of recovery is below us, it's baseline sitting in the 7.7K-8.2k zone. The green channel extending from this is the area in which Bitcoin feels comfortable. The most probable course of action is a fall, to either the 9-9.7k area before a reattempt at the resistance, or a straight skydive to the baseline. These two options are far more likely than bitcoin breaking out and seeing a new A-T-H. This is not just trade advice, this is life advice - Please consider the most likely course of actions before investing your hard earned money, before listening to all the hype, before letting yourself be led into disappointment. Now if I am wrong, if Bitcoin breaks the resistance and goes for a climb, you can jump aboard and sail the profitable seas at your leisure with slightly less profit than you could have. If i'm right however, you stand to lose up to 20-40% if you haven't taken the correct means of protection in a small and volatile time period. DON'T let emotion rule your decisions, this is a game of numbers and probability.
Whatever you decide, i wish you the best in the coming days :)
XRPUSD - This is R.I.P. to me...Unless It's NotAgain, and again the shorts seem to still be holding down Ripple, funny enough the action of the volume spike earlier this morning seems to be the shorts covering after hitting the 0.750 level.
Crazy right? Again, I see a retest of that same 0.750 support level or recovery from optimistic longs for a 0.990 resistance level retest.
Watch the 1.066 and 1.128 levels too especially because of how broke through them.
If Ripple can be string to overcome the resistance around the 0.990 level, the levels I mentioned above it will be very interesting to watch.
But again, let's wait and see; big moves happen when emotions are high.



