EURUSD 3-7Nov NFP week. Two gates decide it: 1.1525 and 1.1635If you trade EURUSD only one week at a time, clarity beats prediction. We closed Friday around 1.1535, near the lower edge of the October range. That puts the pair in a simple state. The market is either building a base above 1.1525 and preparing to challenge 1.1635, or it is slipping back into the mid 1.14s where liquidity sits. I am not here to guess. I am here to define the levels, the triggers, and the discipline that keeps the drawdown small while leaving room for upside if momentum appears.
What matters this week
The calendar clusters the real moves around the US session. Expect a faster tape around midweek and into Friday jobs data.
The driver under the hood is still rate spreads. If yields firm and the dollar catches a bid, 1.1525 is the first line of truth.
The plan uses a two gate structure. Lose the lower gate and you trade short toward the next support shelf. Reclaim the upper gate and you trade long toward the next resistance shelf. Between the gates you keep risk tiny or flat.
Levels that define the week
• Support map: 1.1525 then 1.1500 then 1.1450 then 1.1400 to 1.1350
• Resistance map: 1.1575 then 1.1635 then 1.1700 then 1.1760
Plot them on H4 and H1. Add session separators. Shade the October value area if you keep a volume profile. This gives you a visual spine for every decision.
How I will trade it
I treat 1.1525 to 1.1575 as the neutral band. I call it the noise strip. Inside this band I either reduce size to a probe or I do nothing. I want confirmation from the tape before I put real risk on.
Long idea, momentum reclaim
Base above 1.1575 for at least thirty minutes.
Hold above the level through one pullback. The first pullback must find buyers above 1.1560.
Enter long on a clean break and retest that holds, or on a strong close above 1.1600 if the retest never comes.
Initial stop goes below the pullback low or one H4 ATR from entry. If you prefer structure, use 1.1555.
First target is 1.1635. Take partials there. If momentum remains healthy, let a runner work toward 1.1700.
Invalidation is a close back under 1.1575 after entry. If that happens you flatten without debate.
Short idea, downside continuation
Lose 1.1525 on expanding range.
Do not chase the first break. Wait for a retest from below that fails near 1.1525 to 1.1535.
Enter short when the retest stalls and H1 rolls over.
Initial stop above 1.1550 or one H4 ATR from entry.
First target is 1.1500. If that gives way, work the position into 1.1450. Keep a measured pace around 1.1450 to 1.1400 since liquidity often lives there.
Invalidation is a clean close back above 1.1525 after entry.
Position sizing and risk
The metric to respect this week is Return divided by Drawdown. You can call it R over D. Aim for R over D above one on each trade and above one for the week. That means you size entries so that a normal loss on a single attempt costs less than half of the average win to the next level. Use a fixed fraction per trade or a volatility target based on H4 ATR. For most day traders in majors the sweet spot is one half to one percent of account risk per idea. If your first two attempts fail, you cut size in half for the third. This alone keeps you in the game when the band chops you.
Execution windows
London open often sets the day’s path but New York confirms it. I give more trust to signals that survive the US open.
News minutes are not bravery minutes. If you open a new position inside a data bar you accept slippage as the price of impatience. My rule is simple. Ten minutes before a tier one release I stop initiating new risk unless the trade is already well in profit.
The week closes on Friday with higher volatility risk. If you are green, pay yourself. If you are red, do not try to make it back during the last hour.
Common mistakes to avoid
Trading inside the noise strip with full size.
Averaging down inside the strip when the market is waiting for the next data impulse.
Taking profits early at the first ten pips then giving the rest back on a late chase.
Forgetting that levels are areas not single prints. Build a cushion into stops and entries.
Checklist for your chart
H4 and H1 with session separators.
Lines at 1.1525, 1.1575, 1.1635, 1.1700, and the mid 1.14 shelf.
One ATR measure on H4 for dynamic stops.
A simple label on the chart that says R over D target greater than one.
Optional view. A rates panel or at least a ten year yield overlay on a side chart to keep the macro driver in sight.
I will update the levels only if the market prints fresh structure. Until then the plan is to let price prove direction at the gates and to trade only when the proof is there. If you prefer fewer decisions, pick a single gate for the week. Many traders do well with a one side rule. They only trade longs above the upper gate or only trade shorts below the lower gate. That cuts noise and keeps focus tight.
Reminder
Education and analytics only. No advice. No guarantees. Process beats prediction.
