EUR/USD Weekly: Structural Shift; Long-Term Bearish TrendSummary:
OANDA:EURUSD EUR/USD has transitioned from a bullish to a bearish structure on the weekly timeframe, indicating a potential long-term reversal. Over the past 168 days, price action confirmed a market structure shift after breaking the swing low established during the week of June 30, 2025. This breach marked the beginning of a bearish phase.
Key Technical Observations:
Bearish Pin Bar Confirmation:
During the week of September 15, 2025, a textbook bearish pin bar formed, invalidating prior buying orders and reinforcing bearish sentiment.
Resistance Zone & Accumulation Phases:
Strong resistance persists between 1.17774 – 1.18299, acting as the primary accumulation zone following the initial phase from July 28 to September 29, 2025. Current price action suggests we are in Phase Two of the buying climax, targeting this resistance before a potential rollover.
Lower Highs & Lower Lows:
The market continues to print lower highs and lower lows. The bearish mother bar from July 28, 2025 remains dominant, with multiple inside bars failing to break its high—evidence of sustained bearish pressure.
Liquidity & Institutional Activity:
The 1.1299 level is a critical liquidity pool and may see a third test. Volume Price Analysis indicates repeated invalid buying attempts on up legs, likely driven by institutional positioning to absorb retail buy-side liquidity. Recent upticks appear to be profit-taking and repositioning rather than genuine bullish momentum.
Outlook:
Expect EUR/USD to remain under bearish pressure, with a potential rollover during the first 5–7 months of 2026. Unless the key resistance zone is decisively breached, the structural bias favors sellers.
Charting
Primary Trend: Bearish
Key Resistance: 1.17774 – 1.18299
Critical Support / Liquidity Zone: 1.13900
