EURUSD Fake Breakout Signals Pullback to 1.1700 SupportHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on EURUSD (4H) based on the current chart structure. EURUSD is trading within a broader bullish recovery after completing a prolonged corrective phase. Earlier, price broke above a descending resistance line, which marked a clear shift in market structure and signaled that sellers were losing control. This breakout initiated a steady bullish move, supported by a rising support line, confirming higher lows and improving momentum. After the breakout, EURUSD continued to push higher and reached the resistance level around 1.1750, where selling pressure emerged. Price briefly spiked above this level, forming a fake breakout, which indicates weak acceptance at higher prices and potential buyer exhaustion. Following this rejection, the market pulled back toward the previous buyer zone, which now acts as a key support level around 1.1700. This zone aligns with the former breakout area and represents an important demand level. Currently, price is consolidating above support, showing hesitation near the buyer zone, and the reaction here will determine the next short-term direction. A corrective pullback into the support zone remains healthy within the broader bullish structure as long as buyers continue to defend this level. My primary scenario is a short-term correction toward the 1.1700 support level (TP1), followed by a potential bullish reaction from this zone. As long as EURUSD holds above this support, the overall structure remains constructive, and buyers may attempt another move toward the 1.1750 resistance and potentially higher. However, a clear breakdown and acceptance below the buyer zone would weaken the bullish setup and open the door for a deeper retracement toward lower support levels. For now, the focus remains on the 1.1700 area, as this level will define whether the market resumes its upward move or extends the correction. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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EURUSD Short: Head & Shoulders at Resistance - Target 1.1670Hello, traders! EURUSD previously traded within a well-defined Descending Channel, confirming sustained bearish pressure and controlled sell-side momentum. Price consistently respected the channel boundaries, forming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Multiple breakout attempts occurred within the channel, but each upside move was capped by the descending resistance, reinforcing the bearish structure. The market eventually reached a clear Pivot Point near the lower channel boundary, where selling pressure weakened and buyers briefly stepped in, producing a corrective rebound rather than a full trend reversal. Following this rebound, EURUSD pushed higher and managed to break above local resistance levels, leading to a short-term bullish expansion. However, this move lacked strong follow-through and transitioned into a distribution phase near the Supply Zone around 1.1760. At this area, price formed a clear Head and Shoulders pattern, signaling exhaustion of bullish momentum and a return of sellers. The left shoulder, head, and right shoulder developed directly under resistance, confirming strong supply presence and rejection from higher prices.
Currently, price has broken below short-term structure and is pulling back from the supply zone, signaling the start of a corrective-to-bearish continuation move. The market is now rotating lower toward the Demand Zone around 1.1670, which aligns with a previous breakout level and acts as the nearest downside objective. This zone represents a key area where buyers may attempt a reaction, but overall structure still favors sellers.
My primary scenario is bearish as long as EURUSD remains below the 1.1760 Supply Zone and continues to show rejection from this area. The current pullback appears impulsive rather than corrective, favoring continuation toward the 1.1670 Demand Zone. A clean breakdown and acceptance below demand would confirm further downside continuation. Until then, this level remains the key decision point. Manage your risk!
EURUSD: Bullish Structure Holds Inside Upward ChannelHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD has confirmed a bullish structure after breaking out of the previous Downward Channel. This breakout shifted market control to buyers and initiated a steady move higher. Price is now trading within a well-defined Upward Channel, forming higher highs and higher lows, which supports the bullish trend.
Recently, EURUSD pulled back from the Resistance Zone near 1.1800 and found support around the 1.1750–1.1760 area. This zone aligns with the channel support and previous breakout structure, showing strong buyer interest. Current consolidation above support suggests continuation rather than reversal.
My Scenario & Strategy
My primary scenario remains bullish as long as EURUSD holds above the Support Zone around 1.1750. The recent pullback looks corrective within the broader uptrend. I expect price to resume its upward move and push toward the upper boundary of the Upward Channel, 1.1840 - 1.1850 as the next key target.
A clean breakout and acceptance above 1.1800 would confirm trend continuation and open the door for further upside expansion. However, a sustained breakdown below 1.1750 would weaken the bullish setup and could lead to a deeper correction. For now, the structure favors buyers, with support holding and momentum aligned with the prevailing uptrend.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
EURUSD 1-month Channel Up targeting 1.18850.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a 1-month Channel Up, supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and has already started its new Bullish Leg. The 4H MACD Bullish Cross has confirmed it, similar to what happened on both previous sequences.
Both of those Bullish Legs rallied by a little more than +1.60%. This gives us a short-term Target at 1.18850.
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EURUSD: Rejection From Key Resistance - Support 1.1660 in FocusHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD is trading within a broader corrective structure, and the current price action suggests increasing bearish pressure near key resistance. Earlier, the pair formed a triangle structure, where price respected both the Triangle Resistance Line and the Triangle Support Line. Multiple breakouts occurred during this phase, but they failed to generate sustained bullish continuation, indicating weakening buyer momentum. After breaking out of the triangle, EURUSD moved higher and entered a consolidation range, where price paused and built liquidity. This range was later resolved to the upside, pushing price into the Resistance Zone around 1.1750. However, this move was followed by a fake breakout, signaling that buyers failed to maintain control above resistance. At the highs, a clear Head and Shoulders pattern has formed, with the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder developing directly under the descending trend line and within the resistance zone. This structure highlights strong seller presence and confirms rejection from higher levels. Price is now rolling over from resistance and starting to move lower.
Currently, EURUSD is pulling back toward the Support Zone around 1.1660, which aligns with previous breakout levels and horizontal demand. This area is acting as the nearest downside target, and price reaction here will be critical.
My Scenario & Strategy
My scenario is bearish as long as EURUSD remains capped below the 1.1750 Resistance Zone and the descending trend line. I expect continuation to the downside toward the 1.1660 Support Zone, which represents the next key level for buyers to attempt a defense. A clean breakdown below the support zone would confirm further bearish continuation and open the path for deeper downside movement.
However, if price reaches support and shows a strong bullish reaction, a short-term bounce or consolidation may occur. For now, the structure favors sellers, with 1.1750 as key resistance and 1.1660 as the main downside target.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
EURUSD Holds Demand - Retest of 1.1760 Resistance LikelyHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on EURUSD based on the current chart structure. After a prolonged bearish phase inside a descending channel, EURUSD found a solid base near the lower boundary, where selling pressure weakened and price turned around. This reversal led to a clean breakout above the descending resistance, signaling a shift in market structure from bearish to bullish. Following the breakout, price moved higher but entered a corrective phase, forming a series of pullbacks while maintaining higher lows. As momentum rebuilt, EURUSD broke above the key horizontal level and accelerated into an ascending channel, confirming bullish continuation. Price then pushed into the Seller Zone near 1.1760, where a fake breakout occurred — indicating strong supply but not a full trend reversal. After this rejection, the pair pulled back into the Buyer Zone around 1.1700–1.1720, which aligns with previous resistance turned support and the lower boundary of the ascending structure. Currently, EURUSD is holding above the support level, suggesting that the pullback remains corrective. Buyers continue to defend this zone, keeping the bullish structure intact. My scenario: as long as price holds above the 1.1700 Buyer Zone, EURUSD may bounce and make another attempt toward the 1.1760 Resistance / TP1. A confirmed breakout and acceptance above this level would open the door for further upside continuation. A failure to hold support, however, could lead to a deeper correction within the structure. For now, the bias remains bullish, with support holding and resistance as the main upside target. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURGBP has topped. Long-term Bear Cycle starting.The EURGBP pair is making a long-term trend shift from bullish to bearish. The bearish indicator that stands out at the moment is the 1W RSI which has made a Triple Top since April 07, while the price has been on Higher Highs. Not the cleanest Bearish Divergence, but a Bearish Divergence indeed.
The build up pattern to this (Channel Up into Channel Down following a 1W RSI Bearish Divergence) is similar to the 2022 - 2023 sequence. That fractal turned into a Channel Down a little before the 1W Golden Cross was formed, which on today's fractal was just completed. At the same time, the two patterns exhibit identical 1W MACD sequences, and we are currently on a completed Bearish Cross.
Following the 1W Golden Cross, the 2023 sequence declined aggressively towards its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, initially and after a strong rebound the market had a solely bearish 2024 that took it to a new Low.
As a result, our next long-term Target is a little above the current 0.618 Fib at 0.85000.
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EURUSD Long: 1.1700 Demand Zone Holds the Key to a 1.1760 RetestHello traders! Here’s a clear technical breakdown of EURUSD based on the current chart structure. EURUSD remains within a well-defined ascending channel, forming consistent higher highs and higher lows from the pivot point — a clear sign that the broader structure is still bullish. After the impulsive move higher, price reached the 1.1760 Supply Zone, where temporary rejection and a fake breakout occurred. This reaction signaled short-term profit-taking rather than a structural reversal.
Currently, following the rejection, price pulled back into the 1.1700 Demand Zone, which aligns with the previous breakout level and the mid-range of the ascending channel. This pullback appears corrective, not impulsive, suggesting buyers are absorbing supply and defending structure. The market is now stabilizing above demand, indicating renewed buying interest.
My scenario: as long as EURUSD holds above the 1.1700 Demand Zone, the bullish structure remains intact. A strong reaction from this area could trigger the next impulsive leg toward the 1.1760 Resistance / Supply Zone. A clean breakout and acceptance above 1.1760 would confirm trend continuation and open the path for further upside. Only a decisive breakdown below demand would invalidate the long scenario. For now, the bias favors buyers while price respects the ascending channel. Manage your risk.
EURUSD: Rejection at Key Resistance - Support Zone at 1.1720Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD is trading within a broader bullish structure, but the current price action points to a short-term corrective phase. After establishing an upward channel, price successfully broke above the previous consolidation range, confirming bullish momentum. This breakout pushed the pair higher toward the 1.1770 Resistance Zone, which has historically acted as a strong supply area.
Currently, at this resistance, price has shown hesitation and rejection, indicating that sellers are starting to defend this level. As a result, EURUSD is now pulling back from the highs, moving toward the 1.1720 Support Zone, which aligns with the previous breakout area and the lower boundary of the upward channel. This support zone is critical, as it represents the key demand area sustaining the bullish structure.
My Scenario & Strategy
My scenario is short-term bearish as long as EURUSD remains capped below the 1.1770 Resistance Zone. I expect a controlled pullback toward the 1.1720 Support, where buyers are likely to step in and attempt to defend the trend. A clean breakdown below this support would confirm a deeper correction within the channel.
However, if price holds above the support zone and shows a strong bullish reaction, the broader uptrend remains intact, and another attempt toward the resistance highs may follow. For now, the focus is on the corrective move, with 1.1720 as the key level to watch.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
EURUSD Weakens at Seller Zone - Support at 1.1690 Under WatchHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on EUR/USD based on the current chart structure. After a prolonged bearish move inside a downward channel, EURUSD found a base and reversed from the lower boundary, signaling a loss of bearish momentum. The price then broke above the descending resistance and entered a recovery phase, forming a higher low structure. Following this shift, EURUSD moved into a rising channel, where buyers have been gradually gaining control. Currently, price has pushed into the 1.1760 Resistance Zone (Seller Zone), which previously acted as a strong supply area. The market has already shown signs of rejection from this level, suggesting sellers remain active. Below the current price, the 1.1690–1.1670 Support Level (Buyer Zone) acts as the key demand area and aligns with the lower boundary of the rising structure. As long as EURUSD holds below the resistance, a pullback toward the support zone (TP1) is likely. A deeper correction would still be considered healthy as long as the price remains above structural support. However, a clean breakout and acceptance above 1.1760 could invalidate the short-term bearish pullback scenario and open the way for further upside. For now, the market favors a corrective move, with resistance at 1.1760 and support around 1.1690 as the key levels to watch. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
When Price Gets Ahead of ItselfMarkets love drama.
Price breaks out, momentum accelerates, and suddenly everything feels obvious. Charts look clean, conviction is high, and everyone agrees — this thing is strong.
But here’s the catch: strong doesn’t always mean sustainable.
When price moves too far too fast, it stretches liquidity, pulls in late participants, and often leaves structure behind. That’s when volatility expands, Bollinger Bands® get left in the dust, and the market quietly becomes fragile.
This is where mean reversion sneaks into the conversation — not as a call for collapse, but as a reminder that markets like balance. Extremes attract attention, and attention attracts counter-flow.
Add in order-flow context — like UnFilled Orders (UFOs) lining up near pattern objectives — and suddenly those “obvious” moves don’t look quite as comfortable anymore.
Mean reversion trades aren’t about being right.
They’re about managing risk when price runs ahead of itself.
Because in trading, the real edge isn’t momentum.
It’s knowing when momentum starts to wobble.
Know your specs…
Standard Futures Contract (6E)
Minimum price fluctuation (tick): 0.000050 per Euro increment = $6.25
Typical margin characteristics: ~$2,700 per contract
Micro Futures Contract (M6E)
Minimum price fluctuation (tick): 0.0001 per euro = $1.25
Typical margin characteristics: ~$270 per contract
Want More Depth?
If you’d like to go deeper into the building blocks of trading, check out our From Mystery to Mastery trilogy, three cornerstone articles that complement this one:
🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Trading Essentials
🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Futures Explained
🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Options Explained
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
EURUSD Approaching the yearly Resistance.The EURUSD pair is currently on the 3rd Leg of a very aggressive rally that started on he 1.14700 Low (Support), with the most recent Higher Low being last week on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
This chart shows a potential Double Sell Signal as the price is approaching the Resistance Zone that started after the July 01 2025 High, while the 1D RSI is approaching its own Resistance level since March 11 2025.
As a result, once the price enters the Resistance Zone or if the RSI hits its own sooner, we will have the most optimal quarterly sell opportunity. If that takes place in the middle of the Resistance Zone, the resulting drop will test the exact 1.14700 Support. As a result, that is our Target on a medium-term basis or if the RSI hits its own Support (32.50) first.
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EURUSD Short: Bears Defend Resistance - Next Stop 1.1700Hello, traders! EURUSD is trading within a broader bearish structure, with price action clearly respecting a descending trend line from the higher timeframe. Earlier, the pair reacted from a Pivot Point near the trend line and moved into a consolidation Range, showing indecision before the next directional move. During this phase, price attempted a breakout above the mid-range level, but this move turned into a Fake Breakout, confirming that buyers lacked strength at higher prices. Shortly after, EURUSD formed a clear Head and Shoulders pattern, with a well-defined left shoulder, head, and right shoulder, signaling a potential bearish reversal within the larger downtrend. Following the completion of the right shoulder, price pushed higher and briefly broke above the 1.1700 Demand Zone, but this breakout was quickly rejected. The market then reached the major Supply Zone around 1.1760, where sellers stepped in aggressively, causing a sharp rejection and confirming this area as a strong resistance.
Currently, EURUSD is pulling back from the Supply Zone and moving back toward the 1.1700 Demand Zone, which aligns with previous breakout levels and acts as a key decision area.
My scenario remains bearish as long as EURUSD stays below the descending trend line and the 1.1760 Supply Zone. I expect price to continue pulling back toward the 1.1700 Demand Zone, where the next reaction will define short-term direction. A clean breakdown and acceptance below the 1.1700 level would confirm bearish continuation and open the path toward lower support levels. If price temporarily reacts from demand, a short-term bounce is possible, but the overall bearish bias remains valid while price is capped below the Supply Zone and trend line. For now, sellers remain in control, with the main focus on a move back into the Demand Zone around 1.1700. Manage your risk!
EURUSD: Sellers Drive Pullback - 1.1670 Support in FocusHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD remains in a broader bearish structure, and the recent price action is unfolding within a clear downward context. After moving through a prolonged range phase, the pair broke lower and continued to respect the descending trend line, confirming sustained selling pressure. Price later formed a Triangle Support Line, where buyers attempted to reverse the trend, leading to a breakout above the trend line and a retest of the Support Zone around 1.1670. However, after this retest, EURUSD quickly reached the major 1.1760 Resistance, which has repeatedly acted as a strong reaction zone. From this level, a sharp rejection occurred, showing that sellers are still firmly active and protecting this resistance area.
Currently, the market is pulling back from the Resistance Zone and heading back toward the Support Zone, where the ascending structure meets previous breakout levels.
My Scenario & Strategy
My scenario is bearish as long as EURUSD remains below the 1.1760 Resistance and continues to move away from this rejection zone. I expect the price to pull back toward the 1.1670 Support, where the next reaction will determine short-term direction.
Therefore, a clean breakdown below the 1.1670 Support Zone would confirm further bearish continuation and open the path toward lower levels. However, if the pair tests the support and shows a strong bounce, a short-term recovery toward the trend line may occur — but the bearish outlook remains valid while price stays under the 1.1760 Resistance. For now, the market favors sellers, with the key objective being a move back into the Support Zone around 1.1670.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
EURUSD Consolidates Below Resistance — Bears Aim for 1.1650Hello traders! Here’s my outlook on the current EURUSD setup. After a prolonged consolidation phase, the pair repeatedly respected the Support Level around 1.1640–1.1650, where buyers have consistently stepped in to defend the zone. This area has acted as a strong demand region, forming multiple ranges and triggering previous upward reversals. Each fake breakout below support confirmed that sellers failed to gain control, allowing price to rebound back into structure. Currently, EURUSD is trading within an ascending structure supported by the Triangle Support Line, which has guided price higher following the major turnaround. Along the way, several breakouts and retests validated bullish momentum as the pair pushed toward the key Resistance Level at 1.1710. This resistance remains the main barrier where price previously rejected and rotated lower. At this moment, EURUSD is approaching the Resistance Level again. If buyers maintain control and continue respecting the rising support line, the primary scenario is a pullback toward TP1 → 1.1650, where a major decision point awaits. This area has proven to be a reliable support level and aligns with previous retests, making it a critical zone for potential bullish continuation. A clean breakout above 1.1710 would open the door for a stronger upward move, signaling renewed bullish strength. However, if price breaks below the Triangle Support Line and falls under 1.1640, the bullish structure becomes invalid, and the market may return to deeper corrective levels. For now, the trend remains moderately bullish as long as price holds above support and stays within the rising structure. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EUR/USD: Sloping Inverse Head & Shoulders Breakout Toward 1.178Hi!
Let's analyze EURUSD
EUR/USD has completed a sloping Inverse Head & Shoulders formation, a pattern typically signaling trend reversal after a prolonged decline. The left shoulder, head, and right shoulder are well-defined, and price has decisively broken above the descending neckline, confirming the bullish structure. The breakout also aligns with the broader rounded bottom forming since October, adding confidence to the upward bias.
Price is now trending inside a steep ascending channel. As long as the pair respects the channel’s lower boundary and the retest zone around 1.1650–1.1670, bullish continuation remains favored. Short-term corrective dips into this area may offer potential re-entry opportunities.
The measured target of the sloping H&S projects toward 1.1780, which coincides with a significant supply zone. This confluence is likely where the next major reaction may occur.
Overall, the structure is logical and valid: reversal patterns, channel momentum, and neckline confirmation all support a continuation toward the highlighted target. Bulls remain in control unless price falls back below 1.1620, invalidating the upside scenario.
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Euro FX Playbook: Key Levels That Will Decide the Next Leg1. Macro overview
The broader narrative driving the dollar and Euro FX in the past quarter has been centered on shifting Federal Reserve expectations and the market’s evolving outlook on global growth. The dollar has remained firm as traders continue to balance softer inflation prints against persistent uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of future rate adjustments. While inflation has moderated, the market has not fully embraced a clear easing cycle, which has kept the dollar supported during periods of risk aversion.
For Euro FX, this environment has created a backdrop where price action has been more about relative policy expectations and the pace at which each central bank signals a shift. The Euro has struggled to sustain directional conviction because both sides have been sending mixed signals. This has produced choppy two sided auctioning within a broader range. Sellers have shown responsiveness at the upper end of the structure, while buyers have continued to defend well defined pockets of liquidity near the lows. The result has been repeated consolidation blocks forming as neither side fully takes control.
2. What the market has done
The market was trending lower from September into November while still trading within the larger multi month range between 1.200 (daily resistance) and 1.155 (daily support). Offers consistently stepped down through this period.
Buying liquidity was found again at the 1.155 area. Buyers had previously responded here, initiating the August rally off May’s Bid Block 1 which formed the daily support. This zone once again acted as a key response area. Bids stepped up as the market compressed into late November, and buyers were able to push back through the descending offer sequence.
From there, the market auctioned two way between the 1.174 area (1 December weekly VAH and daily pivot zone 2) and the 1.155 daily support. Buyers stepped up bids in early December and succeeded in bidding prices back above 1.174, showing that buyers were still present and willing to auction the market back up. This move also confirmed that sellers failed to hold the breakdown from the prior 1.5 month consolidation block.
3. What to expect in the coming week
The key level to watch is the 1.182 area (29 September weekly VAH).
Bullish Scenario
• If the market is able to accept above 1.182, it is expected to continue higher toward 1.187 (daily pivot zone 1).
• Sellers are expected to respond here from 1.187.
• If sellers fail to respond, the next upside target becomes 1.1967 (15 September weekly VPOC) and possibly 1.200 (daily resistance).
• A move into these levels would place price near the upper boundary of the larger multi month range.
Neutral Scenario
• If the market is unable to accept above 1.182, or if sellers defend and reject price from 1.187 (daily pivot zone 1), the market is expected to remain rotational.
• The likely rotation range sits between 1.173 (1 December weekly VAH / daily pivot zone 2) and 1.187.
• This should allow the market to establish value higher and form a base for further directional resolution.
Bearish Scenario
• If buyers fail to defend 1.173 (1 December weekly VAH, daily pivot zone 2, and Bid Block 3 range high), the market is expected to push lower to 1.1666 area (17 November VAH).
• If selling continues, price may extend further to 1.1644 (24 November weekly VPOC).
Conclusion
Euro FX remains in a larger range with clearly defined response zones on both sides, and next week’s behavior around 1.182 will set the tone for whether the market rotates higher or slips back into balance.
Let me know what levels you are watching or if you see anything different on your charts. Please give this post a boost so more traders in the community can join the discussion! Thank you.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade your own plan and manage your own risk carefully.
EURUSD August fractal calls for 1.16100The EURUSD pair broke upwards aggressively following Wednesday's Fed Rate Decision and is most likely going for a market Top test before a 2026 Bear Cycle.
Until then, similarities within the 5-month Channel Up between the current price action and August's fractal, suggest that we may have entered a consolidation phase before the final Leg upwards.
As a result, we are targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 0.786 Fibonacci Support Zone at 1.16100.
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EURUSD Short: Correction Deepens — Market Targets at 1.1590Hello, traders! The current EURUSD price action shows a well-structured reaction between the Supply and Demand zones, with price respecting key levels and channel formations. Earlier, the market traded inside a Range phase, signaling indecision before breaking the range to the upside and forming a clean bullish leg. However, this upward move was capped by the major Supply Zone near 1.16800, where sellers stepped in and pushed price lower. After the rejection from supply, EURUSD broke below the ascending channel, confirming a shift in short-term momentum. The pair then retested the mid-structure area, where another breakout occurred, indicating sustained bearish pressure. With each channel break, sellers strengthened their control, creating a series of lower highs within a corrective structure.
Currently, EURUSD is trading below the most recent ascending channel, aiming toward the 1.15900 Demand Zone, which remains the key area where buyers previously generated strong bullish impulses. This level aligns with the next major liquidity pool and stands as the primary downside target.
My scenario as long as price stays below 1.16800 supply and continues respecting the bearish breakout structure, the expectation is for the market to move lower toward 1.15900 Demand. A clear reaction from demand could initiate a bullish corrective move, but without a confirmed breakout above supply, any upside remains limited. A firm break below 1.15900 would invalidate potential reversal scenarios and open the path for deeper downside continuation. Manage your risk!
EURUSD: Price Holds Channel Support, Aiming for 1.1680Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD remains in a broader bullish structure, with recent price action developing inside a well-defined ascending channel. After a strong impulsive rally, the pair broke above the previous consolidation zone and confirmed the breakout with a successful retest of the 1.16100 support zone, which now acts as a key demand area. The market then continued higher, forming higher highs and higher lows along the channel structure.
Currently, price is consolidating below the 1.16800 resistance zone, which represents a major supply area and the upper boundary of the current bullish leg. Despite short-term consolidation, buyers continue to defend the support zone, keeping bullish pressure intact.
My Scenario & Strategy
My scenario remains bullish as long as EURUSD holds above the 1.16100–1.16200 support zone and respects the ascending channel structure. I expect the price to continue pressing toward the 1.16800 resistance, which is the next major target for buyers. A clean and sustained breakout above this resistance would open the way for further upside continuation and new highs.
However, if price fails to break the resistance and shows strong rejection, a short-term pullback toward the mid-channel or back into the support zone is possible. Still, the overall bullish structure remains valid as long as the lower channel boundary holds. For now, the market supports a long bias, with the main objective being a retest of the 1.16800 resistance zone.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
EURUSD Rising Channel Intact as Price Targets 1.16800 ResistanceHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on EUR/USD based on the current market structure. After an earlier breakout from the lower consolidation area, the price entered a steady ascending channel, forming a sequence of higher highs and higher lows while respecting the rising Support Line. The previous bullish impulse was followed by a corrective phase, where EURUSD consolidated inside the marked range, allowing the market to release pressure before continuing higher. After the range breakout, the pair resumed its upward movement and is now trading inside a new rising price channel. At the moment, price is holding above the 1.16400 support level, which is acting as a key demand area and the lower boundary of the current ascending structure. Buyers continue to defend this zone, keeping the short-term bullish bias intact. The market is now pressing toward the major 1.16800 resistance level, which aligns with the upper channel boundary and serves as the next critical obstacle for the bulls. As long as EURUSD remains above the 1.16400 support, the bullish scenario stays valid. I expect a continuation toward the TP1 target at 1.16800, where strong seller reaction is likely. A clean breakout above this resistance could open the door for further upside continuation. However, a failure to hold the current support may lead to a deeper pullback toward the lower channel area. For now, the structure favors buyers, with resistance at 1.16800–1.17000 as the main upside objective. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Is EJ Going Higher?EURJPY Weekly Chart Analysis — December 9, 2025
The Euro/Japanese Yen (EURJPY) displayed strong movement this week on the 1-week timeframe. The pair opened at 180.775 and closed at 182.010, resulting in a solid weekly gain of +1.164 (+0.64%). During the session, EURJPY hit a high of 182.146 and a low of 180.490. This range points to heightened activity and a clear upward bias during the week.
The Parabolic SAR (0.02) continues to offer guidance for trend-following traders. With the weekly candle closing near its high and above its opening, bullish sentiment persists in the medium-term outlook.
Key Technical Levels:
Weekly Resistance: 182.146 (high)
Weekly Support: 180.490 (low)
Outlook:
Buyers currently appear to have the upper hand, with the price edging toward resistance. A break above 182.146 could signal continued upward momentum. Conversely, a shift below 180.490 would be an early warning for a possible bearish reversal. As always, supporting indicators and broader market trends should be checked for confirmation.
Stay tuned for more weekly insights as EURJPY charts unfold!
EUR/AUD ~ Weekly 50 EMAEUR/AUD ~ Weekly 50 EMA Rejection for 3R Upside Potential
EUR/AUD is retesting the weekly 50 EMA after a controlled multi-week pullback. This level has acted as a major dynamic support in past uptrend phases. Price is showing early signs of demand returning, creating a potential swing opportunity aiming toward the prior structure highs. With clear invalidation below the EMA zone, the setup offers a clean 3R path if momentum follows through.
📊 Technical Setup Overview
Current Status: Retesting weekly 50 EMA support
Momentum: Stabilizing after multi-week correction
Target: Return to previous swing highs
Trade Type: Higher timeframe swing setup
📈 Why This Level Matters
Weekly 50 EMA Dynamic Support
The weekly 50 EMA often defines the midpoint of strong trends. EUR/AUD has respected this moving average several times throughout the year, creating reliable inflection points during corrections.
This pullback has tapped the EMA with precision, showing early demand wicks and slowing downside tempo.
Structure Alignment
The current test aligns with a previous consolidation shelf, increasing the importance of this zone.
Large timeframe participants typically step in at these overlapping structure areas.
Trend Integrity
Despite the pullback, the higher timeframe structure remains intact. The series of higher lows is not broken and the long term bullish rhythm remains valid while price holds above this support region.
🎯 Trade Structure
Entry Consideration: Weekly 50 EMA touch zone
Stop Loss: Below the recent weekly wick low
Primary Target: Prior swing high zone
Reward Potential: Approximately 3R depending on exact stop placement
Timeframe: Multi-week hold
📰 Context Behind the Pullback
Recent weakness was driven by euro softness and short term risk flows rather than structural trend change.
These types of corrective moves often fade once higher timeframe participants re-enter at key EMAs.
As volatility cools, weekly structure becomes the dominant driver again and price tends to mean-revert toward trend direction.
📊 Weekly Chart Analysis
Structure
✓ Uptrend intact
✓ Pullback respecting major dynamic support
✓ Higher low structure still active
Momentum
✓ Selling pressure slowing
✓ No breakdown continuation
✓ Volume contraction signaling exhaustion
Key Levels
Support: Weekly 50 EMA
Target Zone: Prior swing highs
Invalidation: Break and weekly close below last wick low
🧠 Why Traders Miss These Setups
Fear of Weekly Pullbacks
Many traders interpret deep pullbacks as trend failure. Weekly EMAs often attract liquidity and are engineered for shakeouts before continuation.
Waiting for Confirmation
By waiting for a break above the weekly candle high, traders risk giving away 70 to 120 pips and compress the reward to 1R or 1.5R.
Overlooking Higher Timeframes
Intraday charts may look messy or bearish. Weekly structure tells the real story and often leads the next macro move.
📅 Expected Duration and Catalysts
Estimated Duration: 2 to 4 weeks
Potential Catalysts:
✓ Euro strength rotation
✓ Weakness in AUD from risk shifts
✓ Improvement in eurozone data
✓ Mean reversion back into trend
⚠️ Risk Factors
A clean break and weekly close beneath the 50 EMA signals trend exhaustion and invalidates the setup.
Fundamental shocks affecting eurozone or Australian macro conditions could also disrupt technical structure.
🏆 The Professional Approach
Professionals focus on:
✓ Structure over emotion
✓ Entering at dynamic support with defined risk
✓ Playing the asymmetric payoff at 3R
✓ Scaling partial profits as price approaches targets
The setup focuses on buying strength at a long term trend support rather than chasing breakouts.
📌 Key Takeaways
✓ Weekly 50 EMA touch creates high probability inflection
✓ Trend structure remains intact
✓ Upside toward previous swing highs offers clean 3R
✓ Risk defined with tight invalidation
✓ Weekly timeframe swing with strong confluence






















