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Eurusdanalysis

Dollar stays soft ahead of FedDollar stays soft ahead of Fed On Sept. 11, mixed U.S. data pushed markets to price nearly three 25-bps Fed cuts by year-end, leaving the dollar vulnerable. EUR/USD climbed above 1.1700, helped by the ECB, though follow-through was limited as traders capped bets beyond 75 bps of easing. Futures show ~71 bps of cuts priced, with just a 7% chance of a 50-bps move next week. By Sept. 12, the euro held near $1.1725 after the ECB kept rates unchanged, signaling no rush to ease further. Economists now see December as the likelier window for the ECB’s next move, with markets assigning only a one-in-six chance of another cut this year.
Short
by ProfessorSingapore
DeGRAM | EURUSD above the accumulation zone📊 Technical Analysis ● EUR/USD has broken above the long-term resistance line after consolidating in the 1.1650–1.1720 accumulation zone, confirming a bullish breakout. ● Price is now testing 1.1770 resistance; sustained momentum above this level would open the way toward the 1.1950 target, with 1.1700 acting as fresh support. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● The euro is supported by easing recession fears in the eurozone and improving investor sentiment, while the dollar weakens amid speculation the Fed may pause tightening after softer US inflation data. ✨ Summary Bullish above 1.1700; targets 1.1770 → 1.1950. Invalidation on a close below 1.1650. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
3
Euro extends gains on weak U.S. data – How long can it last?Euro extends gains on weak U.S. data – How long can it last? The euro hit $1.1779, its highest since late July, as weak U.S. labor data fueled expectations of a Fed rate cut next week. Slowing job growth and rising unemployment pressured the dollar, supporting EUR/USD. While the Fed is expected to ease policy, the ECB is likely to keep rates steady, reinforcing euro strength. However, political uncertainty in France—after Prime Minister Francois Bayrou lost a confidence vote—may cap gains. Analysts expect a drag on the euro as the outcome was largely priced in. Markets will focus on the Fed meeting. A confirmed cut could push the dollar lower and lift EUR/USD, but any ECB hints of easing could trigger a correction.
Short
by ProfessorSingapore
DeGRAM | EURUSD reached the upper boundary of the channel📊 Technical Analysis ● EUR/USD is trading near the upper boundary of the ascending channel, where repeated rejections have triggered corrective pullbacks. ● Price action shows a bearish shift from 1.1759 resistance, with intraday structure favoring a drop toward the 1.1703 support area. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Renewed dollar demand is supported by stronger US services data and hawkish Fed rhetoric, while euro sentiment remains pressured by weak German industrial output figures. ✨ Summary Bearish below 1.1759; targets 1.1703 → 1.1654. Invalidation on a close above 1.1760. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Short
by DeGRAM
5
Euro holds firm as dollar slips on Fed cut betsEuro holds firm as dollar slips on Fed cut bets The euro traded near $1.167, steady despite U.S. dollar weakness fueled by soft labor data. Private payrolls rose 54,000 in August versus 65,000 expected, job openings fell to 7.18 million, the lowest since September 2024, and jobless claims hit a two-month high—signaling a cooling labor market. Markets now expect a 0.25% Fed rate cut in September, which could further weigh on the dollar and support EUR/USD. Traders should monitor upcoming U.S. data for additional easing signals. In France, a confidence vote on Prime Minister François Bayrou’s budget plan is unlikely to impact the euro significantly, ING says. Even if Bayrou loses, President Macron is expected to appoint a new centrist or center-right PM with a softer fiscal plan. While political uncertainty remains, it’s largely priced in.
by ProfessorSingapore
1
DeGRAM | EURUSD reached the upper boundary of the channel📊 Technical Analysis ● EUR/USD was rejected at 1.1717 resistance and failed to hold the breakout, slipping back into the channel. ● Price is now trading below 1.1690 with downside momentum pointing toward 1.1593 and 1.1527 support levels. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Dollar strength is recovering as US Treasury yields bounce and Fed officials push back against aggressive rate-cut bets. Euro sentiment is weighed by softer PMI data, signaling fading growth momentum in the bloc. ✨ Summary Bearish below 1.1690; targets 1.1593 → 1.1527. Invalidation on a close above 1.1717. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Short
by DeGRAM
4
DeGRAM | EURUSD above the supply zone📊 Technical Analysis ● EUR/USD is pressing above the 1.1690 pivot after reclaiming the broken resistance line as support, with momentum aiming for the 1.1765 resistance. ● Higher lows from the demand zone at 1.1600–1.1660 confirm bullish structure, suggesting continuation toward 1.1810 if buyers sustain pressure. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Weaker US PCE inflation data and falling yields pressured the dollar, while euro sentiment is supported by ECB’s hawkish rhetoric and stable growth indicators in the bloc. ✨ Summary Bullish above 1.1660; targets 1.1765 → 1.1810. Invalidation on a close below 1.1630. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
1
DeGRAM | EURUSD fixed above the support📊 Technical Analysis ● EUR/USD confirmed a breakout from the descending channel, with higher lows forming above 1.1630 and buyers reclaiming the broken resistance line as support. ● Price is consolidating just below 1.1692; a decisive close above this level would open the way toward 1.1729, while 1.1658 remains the immediate pivot zone to hold. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● The dollar weakened after softer US jobless claims and a decline in consumer confidence, while euro sentiment firmed as ECB officials maintained restrictive policy guidance. ✨ Summary Bullish above 1.1658; targets 1.1692 → 1.1729. Invalidation on a close below 1.1630. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
2
DeGRAM | EURUSD rebound📊 Technical Analysis ● EUR/USD bounced from the 1.1590–1.1610 support zone, rejecting the descending channel base and triggering a bullish takeover candle. ● Price is attempting to reclaim the 1.1630–1.1640 pivot, with confirmation above 1.1670 opening the way toward the 1.1716 resistance. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Softer US GDP revisions and cooling inflation expectations weighed on the dollar, while ECB officials reaffirmed restrictive policy guidance, supporting euro demand. ✨ Summary Bullish above 1.1610; targets 1.1670 → 1.1716. Invalidation on a close below 1.1590. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
3
DeGRAM | EURUSD under the support line📊 Technical Analysis ● EUR/USD broke down from the ascending wedge, slipping below the support line and now leaning on the 1.1610–1.1590 demand zone. This area acts as the key pivot for near-term moves. ● Failure to hold this base opens the way toward 1.1530 and 1.1460 supply zones, with bearish momentum reinforced by repeated lower highs inside the wedge structure. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● The dollar is strengthening as US Treasury yields climb after resilient economic data, while euro sentiment is pressured by weaker German Ifo expectations, hinting at slower growth momentum. ✨ Summary Short below 1.1610; downside targets 1.1590 → 1.1530 → 1.1460. Invalidation above 1.1642. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Short
by DeGRAM
2
DeGRAM | EURUSD will test the lower boundary of the channel📊 Technical Analysis ● EUR/USD defended 1.1590 support and rebounded, climbing back within the rising channel and retesting the descending resistance line. ● A sustained break above 1.1642 would confirm bullish continuation, opening the path to 1.1693 and potentially toward 1.1715 if momentum strengthens. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● USD softened after weaker consumer confidence data, while hawkish ECB remarks reinforced demand for the euro, supporting recovery from recent lows. ✨ Summary Long above 1.1590; breakout over 1.1642 targets 1.1693 → 1.1715. Invalidation below 1.1590. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
2
EUR/USD Exchange Rate Shows Increased VolatilityEUR/USD Exchange Rate Shows Increased Volatility Powell’s speech on Friday had a distinctly dovish tone. Expectations of an interest rate cut strengthened, which led to a sharp weakening of the dollar — on the EUR/USD chart, a bullish impulse A→B was formed. On Monday, as often happens after an initial emotional reaction to major news, the price corrected as market participants reassessed prospects in light of the Fed Chair’s softened rhetoric. What is particularly notable is that the correction was most evident on the EUR/USD chart, where the decline B→C almost completely offset Friday’s surge. This could point to underlying weakness in the euro, which seems justified when considering that the euro index EXY (the euro’s performance against a basket of currencies) has risen by roughly 13% since the beginning of the year. The EUR/USD rate reacted less strongly to the news that President Trump had decided to dismiss Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors. While the media debates whether the President has the authority to remove her, traders may instead assess how EUR/USD could fluctuate following the A→B→C volatility swing. Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart Recently, we outlined a descending channel using the sequence of lower highs and lows observed this summer. The upper boundary clearly acted as resistance for EUR/USD’s rise on Friday. From the bears’ perspective: → the price has broken downward through an ascending trajectory (shown in purple), and the lower purple line has already changed its role from support to resistance (as indicated by the arrow); → today’s rebound from the 1.1600 support level appears weak, as highlighted by the long upper shadow on the candlestick; → if this rebound is merely an interim recovery following the bearish B→C impulse, it fails to reach the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. In addition, the B peak only slightly exceeded the previous August high (which resembles a bull trap). Taking all this into account, we could assume that in the near term we may see bears attempt to break the 1.1600 support level and push EUR/USD towards the median line of the primary descending channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
EUR/USD Bearish SetupFenzoFx—EUR/USD filled the bullish fair value gap after it swept the highs at 1.1730, formed a double top. However, the recent decline in the currency pair did not result in a liquidity sweep below recent lows. Therefore, the bearish outlook remains valid despite the primary trend, which is bullish. This week, we expect EUR/USD to trade below $1.1591 to accumulate liquidity before rallying higher. Retail traders should monitor the middle line of the bearish engulfing pattern with resistance at $1.1685 for a bearish setup, targeting the equal lows followed by the bullish order block with ultimate support at $1.1528.
Short
by FenzoFxBroker
DeGRAM | EURUSD is testing the support level📊 Technical Analysis ● EUR/USD rebounded sharply from the 1.1590 support zone, breaking above the descending resistance line and confirming a bullish breakout. ● Price is now consolidating above 1.1690, with potential to retest 1.1715 and extend gains toward the 1.1743 resistance. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Softer US dollar sentiment followed weaker housing data and dovish Fed remarks, while expectations for the ECB to maintain restrictive rates supported euro strength. ✨ Summary Long above 1.1590; breakout above 1.1690 confirms upside toward 1.1715 → 1.1743. Invalidation below 1.1590. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
1