EURUSD: Dollar Strength Still In Charge, Euro Is The PassengerEURUSD , Looking at this with the chart not mentally flipped, the structure is clearly one of exhaustion on the euro side. We’ve got a series of lower swing highs against a dominant dollar backdrop, and price is grinding along support rather than impulsively breaking higher. Fundamentally this lines up with a market that still prefers USD carry and safety over a low-growth eurozone.
Current Bias
Bearish.
On a non-inverted EURUSD chart, the dominant idea is USD strength: rallies are selling opportunities while price stays capped below recent highs and trend resistance.
Key Fundamental Drivers
Fed vs ECB policy path
Fed: Still on track for rate cuts, but at a measured pace, with Powell making it clear that the FOMC will react to data, not chase market pricing. That keeps US real yields relatively attractive and supports the dollar.
ECB: Growth is softer, inflation is easing, and officials are signalling “policy in a good place” with strong data dependence. There is little appetite for a hawkish surprise, which leaves EUR without a clear policy advantage.
Growth and labor dynamics
US: Data points to a cooling but still resilient economy. Labor market is loosening, but not breaking. That combination justifies gradual easing rather than aggressive cuts.
Eurozone: Sentiment and activity indicators are weak or only stabilising. Lower growth means the ECB cannot diverge hawkishly from the Fed for long without harming already-fragile demand.
Risk and safe-haven flows
In risk-off or “policy confusion” episodes, USD still benefits more than EUR. That underpins a downside bias in EURUSD when volatility picks up.
Net: Fundamentals still favour USD over EUR, which on a standard chart is bearish EURUSD.
Macro Context
Rates:
Market pricing has shifted toward fewer / slower Fed cuts than the most dovish scenarios. The ECB is also expected to cut, but the eurozone’s weaker growth gives it less room to signal anything hawkish. Rate differentials stay either neutral or mildly USD-supportive.
Growth:
US growth is moderating from strong levels, eurozone growth is stuck near stagnation. That relative story helps the dollar on a “least-ugly” basis.
Geopolitics and trade:
Trade tensions (US–China, EU–China, tariff talk) and geopolitical risk favour USD demand over EUR, because the dollar is still the primary global hedge.
Put together, the macro picture argues against a sustained euro bull run and supports a sell-the-rally EURUSD regime.
Primary Risk to the Bearish View
The main risk is a sharp dovish pivot from the Fed driven by:
A clear downside surprise in US labor or inflation data that forces the market to price a much faster and deeper rate-cut cycle.
Any signal that the Fed is more willing to tolerate overshooting on inflation to protect growth and employment.
That type of shift would knock US yields lower, hurt the dollar, and could squeeze EURUSD sharply higher, invalidating the downside structure.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event
US: CPI, PCE, NFP, and Powell/Fed speeches – anything that changes the timing or depth of 2026 rate cuts.
Eurozone: Inflation prints and ECB communication; not because they are likely to be hawkish, but because any hint of “less dovish than feared” could temporarily lift EUR.
For direction, though, the USD leg is still more important than the EUR leg.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
EURUSD is a lagger, not a leader.
It tends to follow DXY and US yields, rather than set the tone.
When DXY strengthens on higher US yields or risk aversion, EURUSD typically moves lower.
Crosses like EURJPY, EURGBP, and risk sentiment via US indices often move first and EURUSD confirms.
So for timing, I’d look at DXY, US10Y, and broader risk sentiment, then use EURUSD to express the USD view.
Key Levels
Support Levels (bearish targets):
1.1500–1.1520: local support and mid-channel area.
1.1400: key structural support; break here opens the door to deeper downside.
Resistance Levels (sell zones):
1.1700–1.1750: recent swing highs and clear horizontal resistance.
1.1800–1.1850: major supply zone and invalidation area for the medium-term bearish bias.
Stop Loss (SL) for a bearish swing idea:
Above 1.1850 on a daily close, which would signal that the current USD-strength narrative has been materially challenged.
Take Profit (TP) for a bearish swing idea:
First TP around 1.1500,
Second TP extension toward 1.1400 if US data stays solid and the dollar bid persists.
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
Re-reading this with the chart correctly interpreted, EURUSD is fundamentally and technically bearish, not bullish. The story is still one of relative USD strength: a Fed that cuts, but slowly, versus an ECB constrained by weak growth and little scope to lean hawkish. That leaves rallies toward 1.17–1.18 as potential selling opportunities, with the bearish structure only really invalidated if price closes convincingly above that 1.18–1.1850 zone.
On the downside, I’d watch how price behaves around 1.15 first and 1.14 second. Strong US data and firm yields could push us there; a sudden dovish Fed pivot is the main risk that would blow this view up and squeeze EURUSD higher instead. Until that happens, I’m treating EURUSD as a lagger that confirms the broader dollar story, not a pair that sets it.
