Trading is execution - USD/JPY Live trading exampleThis is a short mentoring/educational session.
The USD/JPY is the pair we are trading this evening, I analyse this based on the mtf wave structure.
I explained the importance of the secondary trend, as a determinant tool or information for what may happen in the future.
I also shared one of my waves of success strategy using the DMI and the VMP for trade execution.
Finally, after taking the trade, I explained late Mark Douglas probabilistic principles which acts as a solid foundation of our behaviour and interaction with the market.
Execution
📚 Creating A Trading Plan and Executing A Trade 📚As with all great trades, we require a trading plan. This is a perfect example of how to analyse, execute and manage your trade. See linked chart for the initial trade idea.
See below for a step by step guide on how we entered this trade and what we looked for.
Goodluck and trade safe!
Trading Psychology 5 Edge ExecutionEdge Execution
Trading is a numbers game, and markets are based on the mathematics of the traders equation. However, understanding this alone will not guarantee profits. The ability to apply and conform to the math of the current market context is what leads to consistent profits. Beginners often have a misconecption that they need to know what is going to happen over the period of the next X number of bars in order to make a profit. They believe they must enter at the exact right time and price in order to win on a trade. This could not be further from the truth, and anyone consistenly making money from the markets knows the reality. The reality is a trader does not need to know what is going to happen next in order to make a profit. In fact, a professional trader knows that any given trade is irrelevant to the bigger picture, and an income is generated over a series of trades; not any single trade. This menatlity is past the duality of winning and losing, which are simply accepted as part of the job. This can be called the "probability mindset."
Profits are generated over a series of trades, not any single trade. Therefore, it is not necessary to make money on every trade, every day, or even every month to be a succesful trader. It takes time to build confidence, believe this is true and fully understand this concept. Perhaps this is why most traders fail, by giving up before coming to this realization. It has been said that professional traders have "Won the game before they started playing." (Jack Swagger). This confidence can only come from the probability mindset, when a trader accepts he may lose on this trade, the day, or even this year. But he accepts his risk, and trusts the math that over time he will generate a profit. Even if he takes a large loss, or several, it does not matter; he knows he will make it back up. The overall point of this is that losses are part of the trading process. If a trade is a loser, it does not matter; move on to the next trade. Dwelling on losses or a drawdown does not bring the money back, but continuing to trade does. In this sense it can be said that a successful trader "trades his way out of a drawdown."
It is helpful to think of losses as the "cost of doing business" just like any other business would incur expenses while conducting its operations. There are very few (if any) businesses that do not require heavy start up costs, or capital to continue the business while generating profits. Ever heard the saying "It takes money to make money?" Trading is no different, although most traders fail to realize this, and focus solely on profits. In trading, our costs are commissions and losses, which are offset by gains, resulting in a net profit.
Employing your Edge
So what does this have to do with exeucting an edge? Well, it is necessary to understand not every trade is a guranteed success, and there is a random distribution between wins and losses, with any edge. Even the best setup or edge will result in a loss 30-40% of the time. It is virtually impossible to know in advance, which trade will win and which will lose. Therefore it is absolutely imperative to take every trade that meets a traders edge, regardless of how the trader feels, thinks, or any other variables unrelated to the edge. With this said, here are the basic steps to exeucting and employing an edge.
1). Identify edge. Pick a setup (second entry, wedge reversal, follow through bar, ect.) It is a good idea to start with one until familiar with reading prices.
2). Ask yourself at the close of every bar "Is my edge present?" If no, wait. If yes, enter the trade.
3). Execute the edge with a series of 10 or 20 trades, document every trade. At the end of the series analyze results and tweak.
Wishing you the best of luck on your trading journey
-Josh Ridenour
Fulfilling a promise to share my trading Part 1. (Education)This will be a relatively shorter post and is a follow up on Part 1 (phew.... Good for me and you LOL)
So, i got this situation where there was a breakout on the 4 hour, mark with a dash line on the 1 hour.
The first thing that came to my mind will be:
A) I want to long
B) I will not short even if there is a reversal (Unless 7700 is broken)
C) Where will i long? What is my initial risk to reward?
So, instead of chasing price action, i'd use a very simple method for a certain completion of the latest low.
The key part to succeed here is you have to start watching the market and wait for a classical higher high
higher low formation usually in the form of 2 candles.
You might be asking "Don't you use some sort of indicator"? As a matter of fact, i rarely use it because i find
it too troublesome. I'm watching a lot of markets and i'm not going to throw all my eggs in one trade.
But if you want, i could use an ATR (for stop distance placement) or RSI (below 80 or above 20). That's it.
So, after the formation of "higher high, higher low", my entry is 2 pips above its last high, and 3-5 pips below
the swing low. Don't worry about it because my first target is usually conservative at 1:1 risk to reward and
likely i'd take half or one third. No right or wrong but try to fix at predetermine amount to exit.
The position size i take is never more then 2 percent of my equity but the actual size depend on the stop
placement.
Once this is achieved, i simply move my stop to break even and target 1:2 risk to reward. I may have exited fully
or still have one third of position left. I'd simply trail it with swing highs and low. Remember the golden rule that
stop can only move when it is meant to lock more profits then before.
I felt this is a very simple way to trade and is easily executable by anyone although it does take a lot of practise to
do so. Why rush anyway? Trading is a marathon and the longer you are in the race, the more you are likely to succeed!
I hope this simple method helps you. Free free to drop me any questions i'd try to answer as much as possible!