Exxon
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: EXXON IS ON RISK OF FURTHER DECLINEExxon is in a complex situation - but overall risk is still to the downside at the moment.
On long term basis, XOM fell out of 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean (at 76 now), but is still holding within 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean (although, below the mean itself)
Thus XOM is on risk of decline there at least to 65 - which is the lower 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean, if price continues to trade below 76
On short term basis the risk (of decline into 65) is confirmed - price is trading below 1st standard deviations from both 1-year and quarterly mean (thus is in downtrend in relation to both short term means)
The micro levels are alligned with macro levels at the moment, as can be seen on the chart
Binary Event - Bullish moveCVX is a correlative equity to XOM. These are consist in trend moves comparable to other equities in their sector. You want volatility for the option's play. Right now, CVX is at a crossroads with an IV of 73 and HV 71. With earnings coming up, we're expecting a shift north till the end of this year's first quarter. That's a good play to go deep in options. FEB (22) Call Strike 105 is our target for front month. APR 15 (78) Call Strike is 110 and/or 115. The decrease in IV over the next months in consideration of the options months shows favorable signs of going north. Tomorrow is we'll know.



