FIL/USDT — Brutal Rejection or the Beginning of Major Reversal?FIL/USDT is entering one of the most critical decision zones of the entire 2025 structure. After spending months inside a clean, well-defined downtrend (yellow trendline), FIL attempted a breakout — only to be met with a violent wick rejection, signaling heavy supply waiting above.
Price has now fallen back into the Golden Retracement zone (0.5–0.618 Fibonacci) — a region that often determines whether a market forms a true reversal or continues its larger downtrend. What happens here is pivotal.
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🔶 Key Structure & Pattern Insights
1. Long-Term Downtrend Still in Control
Clear formation of lower highs and lower lows visible since early 2025.
The yellow descending trendline has acted as major resistance for almost the entire year.
2. False Breakout (Wick Rejection)
FIL broke above the trendline but failed to close above it.
This usually indicates upside liquidity grab, not a confirmed reversal.
3. Price Returns to the Critical Fibonacci Zone
0.5 = 2.155
0.618 = 1.968
A textbook retest region where major directional decisions often occur.
4. Layered Resistance Levels Above
If FIL stabilizes, these become the upside checkpoints:
2.65 → key confirmation level
3.27 → first major resistance
4.875 / 6.07 / 7.88 → structural targets if a full reversal unfolds
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🟢 Bullish Scenario (True Reversal Potential)
Bullish bias becomes valid ONLY if:
✔ Price holds above 2.15–1.97 and forms a higher low
✔ A 2D/weekly close occurs above 2.65
If both conditions are met → the trend reversal becomes official.
Bullish targets:
3.27 – first major confirmation
4.875 – upside continuation
6.07 – mid-term target
7.88 – high zone that may trigger market FOMO
Additional Bullish signals:
Volume expansion on the 2.65 breakout
Clean retest of the Fibonacci zone
Strong-bodied candles instead of wick-driven spikes
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🔴 Bearish Scenario (False Breakout Confirmed)
Bearish continuation strengthens if:
❌ Price breaks & closes below 1.97 (0.618 Fib)
If this happens → the previous breakout is fully confirmed as a false break, and the downtrend resumes.
Downside targets:
1.70–1.50 → major structural support
Breakdown below this region could send FIL to deeper lows
Additional Bearish signals:
Strong rejection near 2.15–2.20
Increasing sell volume
Weak reaction every time price retests the trendline
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🎯 Key Takeaways
FIL is currently sitting at a major reversal zone or a continuation breakdown point.
📌 2.15–1.97 is the main battlefield
📌 Closing above 2.65 = multi-week bullish potential
📌 Losing 1.97 = downtrend continuation
📌 Watch 2D and weekly closes very closely
This is a decision zone — not a place for FOMO, but a place for precision and disciplined planning.
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