BTC reality check! Flat wave C & Oct 26 bottomWe’re back on BTC to drill into my alternate Elliott Wave count and the cyclical roadmap. Cycle work pointed to an October top, which we’ve seen. I remain long-term bullish, but near term I still see a flat correction in play, with wave C unfolding.
Drivers
Elliott Wave structure
The larger uptrend remains intact, but the current phase looks corrective as a flat: wave A as a flat, wave B irregular, and wave C unfolding in five subwaves.
Near term, price action looks like we’re in or finishing wave 4 of C. By alternation, with wave 2 having been deep (around the 61.8% area), wave 4 often resolves shallower (around the 38.2% area). If it stretches closer to 50% and compresses, a triangle into a final wave 5 is plausible before completion of C.
If C remains overlapping and wedge-like, an ending diagonal scenario keeps downside limited. If instead the decline is impulsive, this drop could be only wave 1 of a larger 5-wave move lower.
Momentum-wise, higher-timeframe RSI shows divergence, consistent with a late-stage correction.
Cyclical framework
Bitcoin’s recurring rhythm has often mirrored halving cycles: a bear phase roughly around a year, followed by multi-year bull advances.
Symmetry between bottom→halving and halving→top continues to be informative. With the next halving due in 2028, the cycle window I’m monitoring points to a potential bottom window around Q4 2026 (often cited around October).
This video focuses less on a single trade and more on the timing roadmap: when the corrective structure might complete and when to consider re-engaging for the longer term.
Key zones to watch
If an ending diagonal plays out, a termination near the high-60Ks (around 69k area) would be consistent with “limited downside.”
A more dramatic impulse path could open a wider “magnetic zone” of support roughly spanning the low-70Ks down toward the 50Ks, with deeper stretch risks if the impulse extends.
Confirmation will depend on how wave 4 resolves and whether the next leg proves corrective (ED) or impulsive.
Trade idea
My base lens is structure-first, timing-second. If wave C finishes as an ending diagonal, downside should be limited in the high-60Ks and setting up a bullish continuation in 2026. If instead the drop proves impulsive (5 down), treat bounces (0.5–0.618 retraces) as opportunities to reassess shorts, with a support “magnet” spanning roughly low-70Ks to low-50Ks, and deeper risk if momentum accelerates. Validation hinges on how wave 4 resolves and whether the final leg is overlapping (ED) or cleanly impulsive.
If you want my annotated charts and live invalidation levels, drop a comment. Like and subscribe to catch the mid‑week follow‑up when wave 4/5 signals firm up.
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