Gold breakout incoming? Triangle in focus as Fed cut bets rise!Gold has snapped back above the $4.1k handle and is coiling in a triangle just under resistance as markets go almost all‑in on a December Fed rate cut.
In this video, we look at how dovish shifts from Fed officials and surging rate‑cut odds are lifting gold while price action compresses between the 4k support and the 4,240–4,245 resistance band. We then map out both bullish and bearish scenarios using the 4,100 handle as the key line in the sand.
Key drivers
Markets now price roughly 80% odds of a December Fed cut after comments from Christopher Waller and Mary Daly backing a move on the basis of a weakening labour market.
Lower expected policy rates and a softer dollar reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, helping XAUUSD hold above 4,100 even as risk appetite improves elsewhere.
On the 1‑hour chart, gold is locked in a contracting triangle/pennant with higher lows and lower highs, overbought RSI cooling off, and 4,100 acting as potential support.
A sustained break above roughly 4,175–4,200 opens the door towards 4,240–4,275, while a failure and loss of 4,100 puts 4,000 back in play and risks a deeper extension towards the 3,750 zone.
If you’re trading gold, share your triangle scenarios in the comments. Are you buying a 4,100 hold or fading a failed breakout? Make sure to follow for more macro‑plus‑technicals trade setups.
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