Gold continues to rise, is there no chance for bears?Yesterday, gold opened lower, found support at 4,199, and then began to rally, peaking intraday near the 4,230 level. Undoubtedly, the bulls have once again staged a rally of over 100 points. Of course, no matter how high gold rises—even if it hits 4,500—I wouldn’t be surprised right now, because the market is in such a state: the bulls’ rally seems endless. While there have been collapses in between, the situation is just as I said yesterday: recent collapses followed by rallies to new highs have made the market distrust the return of bears; instead, investors increase their bullish bets after each collapse.
One thing must be acknowledged: amid gold’s relentless rally, there are still investors trying to top-tick the market (short at the peak), especially when facing resistance at round-number levels. The enthusiasm for shorting remains high, and this is precisely what’s driving gold higher—because it can’t fall. If it really did fall sharply, market sellers would undoubtedly lock in substantial profits. As for chasing highs, with gold breaking through resistance levels at will, buyers have high expectations. Moreover, as the low points keep moving up, buyers dare not exit casually once they enter a position—for fear of missing the chance to get back in at a lower level. This behavior has also intensified market manipulation; otherwise, what’s the point of gold’s "collapse-then-rally-to-new-highs" pattern these days? It’s nothing more than a way to trap both bulls and bears for profit.
Given this situation, technical analysis and news are essentially meaningless. While they may have some reference value, it’s extremely limited. Therefore, you all need to be cautious. Of course, for me, it doesn’t matter—short-term trading doesn’t require a clear trend. Although I mostly take short positions in the short term, that’s only because the skill requirement for "catching pullbacks after rallies" is relatively low. Additionally, I haven’t had time to notify everyone about long positions, as the rebounds have been too fast, leaving no chance to enter. I hope you all can understand this.
Today, gold gapped up to open near 4,333, pulled back to 4,326 to find support, and then surged sharply. The bulls pushed it up to around 4,379 before it collapsed to near 4,343; it then rallied again to 4,363 and paused to pull back. Undoubtedly, the bulls have once again unleashed an explosive rally. Of course, when it comes to the reason for this surge, it ultimately boils down to market-driven buying. Yesterday, when gold faced resistance in the 4,290–4,300 range, selling pressure emerged noticeably—and this is precisely what attracted capital to enter, "hunt" those short positions, and push gold above 4,300.
The 4,300 level is also a key dividing line between bulls and bears in the market. This week, since gold started rallying from 4,002 earlier in the week, the bulls have surged nearly 300 points, and the enthusiasm of market buyers has slowed noticeably. Most investors think that after such a large gain, a further explosive rally is unlikely, so they chose to short at 4,300 as a "phased top-tick"—and this is why gold saw such a momentum-driven rally after breaking above 4,300.
Secondly, market news has also given capital an excuse to push gold higher. First, the deteriorating relations between China and the U.S. have triggered market panic; second, the U.S. government shutdown has further amplified this panic; third, the suspension of data releases has left the Federal Reserve unable to refer to economic data to adjust policies, which has increased the likelihood of a rate cut. With these three major news drivers impacting gold, capital always has a reason to push its price higher. Furthermore, the outbreak of the U.S. credit crisis has fueled safe-haven sentiment, and the tense atmosphere surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to stimulate safe-haven demand for gold. Combining these factors, if the market is willing, even a break above 4,500 wouldn’t be surprising.
Of course, for today, we can’t rule out the possibility of a deep collapse. After all, this week gold has surged nearly 380 points from 4,002 to 4,379. While the bulls have shown strength, we must admit that this rally is fragile—overbought conditions are inevitable, and a collapse is bound to come. The only unknown is how gold will fluctuate before the collapse. Right now, tools like technical analysis are useless. However, looking at trading activity: even though market sellers have been trapped and forced to take losses, traders’ enthusiasm for top-ticking remains high.
In this context, I personally don’t think 4,400 can hold; it will likely be broken falsely to trigger stop-losses. That said, once it breaks above 4,400, gold may see a momentum-driven rally—unless capital steps in to reverse the trend midway, it should surge to 4,430–4,440 before collapsing. Moreover, if a collapse occurs today, the magnitude will be significant, though it will be accompanied by a rebound. This is exactly what happened this morning: gold collapsed, then surged to a new high, collapsed again, then surged again. This is clearly a move to convince the market that "bears are powerless." Therefore, you all must be alert to the risk of a sudden 100-point drop in gold today.
As for today’s trading strategy, I won’t elaborate much here—everything will be based on real-time market moves.
If you lack a plan or clear direction for gold trading and struggle to achieve consistent, stable profits, you can follow my channel and leave me a message.
