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How much further can gold fall?From 3758 to 3871.5, nearly $113, it surged nearly $50 today. However, after breaking the high, it reversed course and fell again, dropping over $60. A sharp drop and slow rise is just the right way to describe today. The current situation is that the price continued to rise and break new highs in the Asian session, then rose and fell in the European session, breaking the lows. After breaking the highs, it broke the lows again, entering a period of correction. Technically, there is also a need for correction. Once the highs are confirmed, a new round of market movement begins. The scope for correction is currently estimated to be around $80-100. Of course, judging by the current trend, the price has already fallen below the 3810 area, a drop of over $60. Expanding the range to $100 could be just a matter of minutes. Keep an eye on the 3800 area, with a particular focus on the 3775 range. For bulls, Considering this surge, which has already exceeded $500, the largest gain this year, the upward potential is limited, and technical corrections are imminent. Before the previous decline began, we held onto our highs. Now that a decline is likely, we should hold onto our highs even more. As for buying lows, we should wait until the current downward momentum has fully unleashed. Using the 3880 area as resistance, I began shorting. As the price continues to fall, I've continued to follow the bearish trend. Currently, the price is in the 3820 area, and I continue to be bearish. Focus on 3805-3800. If it falls below, I'll target 3875. If you're feeling lost and unsure about where to go in this market, follow my updates and channel. I'll provide daily updates, including details on both long- and short-term trade executions. If you're interested, please share your current positions so we can analyze whether it's safer to hold on patiently or adjust and change positions promptly.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Matthew_8888
XAUUSD: Trend is your friend, follow it!Price remains in a strong uptrend with no clear signs of momentum weakness yet. That said, this appears to be the final leg of the current advance, so chasing highs is risky. I prefer to stand aside for now and wait for price-action confirmation of a top. 1) Analysis Price has broken above the prior high at 3.791, but the Superior RSI has not reached the overbought zone and is showing early signs of divergence on 1h timeframe. The area is a high-activity auction zone on CM E, from here I expect a short pullback into lower supports. Key support: , , . 2) Primary Scenarios Scenario A (bearish): If price breaks below and drives into lower supports, then 3.818 will likely mark the swing high, and a deeper correction should follow. Scenario B (bullish extension): If price respects the support zone and breaks above 3818 then I expect price to at least top at 3866 where CME traders place a large amount of auction contracts and start a correction. Please like and comment to support our traders. Your feedback motivates us to produce more analysis in the future 🙏✨
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ZuperView
Gold breaks through 3800, should we go short or long?Looking back at the current upward cycle of international gold, the price started from a low of 3313 and has been steadily rising all the way relying on the bull trend. As of now, the cumulative increase has exceeded 500 US dollars. This increase is basically the same as the 500 US dollar band increase caused by changes in tariff policies. From the historical trend, after a similar increase, the market tends to enter the "momentum rebalancing" stage, especially when the price breaks through the key mark of 3810 US dollars, it will officially enter the short-term risk area. The riskiness of this zone stems primarily from the substantial profits accumulated from long positions initiated at $3,313. Some investors are taking profits at high levels, leading to a temporary increase in selling pressure. Based on historical gold fluctuations, after such surges exceeding $500, a typical technical correction typically begins at $100. The core function of this correction is to "digest profit-taking and repair overbought indicators" to accumulate momentum for the subsequent "second bull run", which is a necessary link in the trend continuation process. Today, I'm considering shorting gold in the 3813-3818 resistance range, with the initial retracement target at 3800-3780. Due to the rapid market fluctuations, please stay tuned to my channel for detailed trading tips, including execution details for both long and short-term trades. If you'd like, please share your current positions so we can analyze whether it's safer to hold on or adjust and change positions promptly.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Matthew_8888
Double top expected, short at the beginning of the weekLast week, after a brief sideways consolidation following the opening, gold surged steadily and hit a new all-time high around 3,791. However, after a pullback correction on Wednesday, its upward momentum weakened relatively. During Friday’s U.S. trading session, gold rallied to around 3,783 before pulling back, closing near the 3,759 level. Technically, the daily chart shows a single bearish candlestick for the pullback, while Friday formed a small bullish candlestick with an upper wick—once again standing above the moving average system. This suggests gold is relatively in the early stage of preparing for a second rally. The weekly chart also closed as a medium bullish candlestick, indicating the overall broad market sentiment remains bullish. Driven by a series of bullish patterns, gold may see a trend reversal (breakout) move next week. After all, the pullback from Friday’s U.S. session high could very well be a short-term "washout" by bears. For gold to refresh its highs next week, Friday’s secondary high must be broken in a timely manner. Meanwhile, during pullbacks, the 3,770 level—now a top-bottom conversion zone—will act as a key short-term resistance. If gold opens under pressure below this level on Monday, it may break lower again later. On the 1-hour chart, if gold fails to extend its upward move, a "double top" pattern could form. A series of major economic data releases are scheduled for next week. Gold will likely trade in a consolidation range early next week, given the lack of significant news triggers initially. Focus on the resistance at 3,790 first—we expect a pullback initially, with support to watch around the 3,720 zone. If Monday’s rebound lacks strength, prioritize short positions on rallies. As market conditions change rapidly, please follow my channel for specific trading key points, including execution details for both long-term and short-term trades. If you are willing, feel free to share your current position status—we can analyze together whether it is safer to hold patiently or adjust and rebalance your positions in a timely manner.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Matthew_8888
It's not time to short yetWhat is risk? It's not fear or worry, but rather a lack of understanding and direction. Adjustments during an uptrend are normal. Short-term trading isn't about the overall direction, but rather the day itself. The focus within a day is on predicting key resistance and support levels. Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, gold prices have failed to reach $3,700 for the second time, ultimately falling rapidly. The market has begun to question the rise and fear a deeper correction. This concern is not misplaced. Gold prices have risen by $400, so mid-term adjustments are normal. However, for gold to go from strength to weakness, it will inevitably experience fluctuations first; don't expect a sudden turn to extreme weakness. The top always appears when the market is buzzing! From this theoretical point of view, 3,700 isn't too high. From the 2-hour chart, gold prices saw a breakout, reaching a new high of 3,728 before retracing. Currently, support at 3,708 is the target. If it falls below, the target is 3,697, the starting point of this rally. Gold strategy: fall back to the 3700 line, light long position, target 3725, continue to hold if it breaks through.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Matthew_8888
Don’t hesitate when gold rebounds, just go short!Gold fluctuated repeatedly in the range yesterday, and the trend was completely in line with our trading idea of selling high and buying low. The long and short two-way layout was stable and profits were achieved. The daily line closed with a negative line and a long upper shadow, indicating that the high-level adjustment pattern is still continuing, but the technical indicators have not formed a death cross, and the overall bullish trend is still dominant. The short-term level continues to maintain a volatile and bearish idea. The rebound of the middle track of the Bollinger band in the 4H cycle was blocked and fell back. At the same time, the 1H secondary high was suppressed, and the upper pressure was still significant. Today's operation focus is based on the middle track pressure to see a volatile downward trend. Pay attention to the 3660-3675 area on the top. If this range is broken, the short-term may extend to test the 3685 line; pay attention to the 3625-3610 range on the bottom. Once it stabilizes, it is still a good opportunity to buy on the low. If it holds this position, the bullish pattern remains unchanged. If it is lost, we must be alert to the risk of a deep correction. The current volatile market continues to release room for selling high and buying low. Planned trading is the key to avoiding emotional chasing of gains and losses.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldenTrack_Daniel
How to operate the layout and don’t miss the golden opportunity!News: As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and hinted at two more cuts this year, pushing gold to a record high above $3,700. The dollar's rebound from multi-year lows and rising Treasury yields have put some pressure on gold prices. The latest dot plot suggests another 50 basis point rate cut before the end of the year, but Powell expressed caution about the pace of rate cuts. The long-awaited moment has finally arrived. Despite persistently high inflation, the Fed has clearly shifted its policy focus to achieving full employment. The median forecast for the next two years indicates that the Fed plans to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each year. The forecast range for the end-2026 interest rate is 2.6% to 3.9%. Policymakers expect the unemployment rate to reach 4.5% in December this year and fall to 4.4% by the end of 2026. The market will then focus on Thursday's economic data, including US initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, as well as policy moves from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, which may cause short-term fluctuations in gold prices. Gold Trend Analysis: Gold's bullish trend remains intact, and the overall outlook remains bullish, but there is still a risk of medium-term correction. Therefore, when trading, consider waiting for a pullback to go long. After the ups and downs of Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday this week, gold has twice tested the 3707 high, only to experience significant pullbacks after both attempts. In particular, after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, market buying sentiment subsided, and gold fell to a low of 3645. Therefore, it is unlikely that gold will continue to rise in the short term, or even break new highs. Therefore, gold is likely to experience a period of volatile correction in the near term, and there is no need to overestimate the market after the interest rate decision. From a technical perspective, the daily chart closed at a high level, but failed to break through the unilateral moving average support. Therefore, it is unclear whether gold will reverse its trend. At most, it is showing signs of weakening, forming a high-level consolidation. The key support level below is 3620. A break below 3620 and a series of daily declines, breaking through the unilateral moving average, would indicate potential for a significant decline. The H4 Bollinger Bands are currently converging, with the moving averages converging, indicating a very clear volatile trend. The support point between the lower Bollinger Band and the 60-day moving average is near 3635. Unless this level is broken, it will be difficult to pull the lower Bollinger Band apart, leading to a unilateral decline. Gold surged and then retreated, reaching a low near 3645. Therefore, support points below are very clear, with 3635 and 3620 as key support points. Assuming the overall trend remains unchanged, the principle of buying on dips to key support points is bullish. Focus on 3675, 3690, and 3710 above. Thursday and Friday are likely to see continued high-level fluctuations in the bullish trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldenTrack_Daniel
Gold fluctuations are under your control!After the gold interest rate decision, it went as we expected. Shorting near 3672, it first fell, and then going long near 3630 was bullish. The profit from this round trip was quite large. First of all, looking at the current overall background, although the Fed has implemented an interest rate cut, the message it conveys is far from purely dovish. Powell's speech suggested that this action is not the beginning of a radical easing policy, but a prudent move to deal with economic uncertainty, especially the weakening labor market and stubborn inflation. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits in the United States in the week ending September 13 was 231,000, which was expected to be 240,000 and the previous value was 263,000. The data fell sharply from the abnormally high level of the previous week and returned to the normal range in the past four years. From the perspective of gold technology, the 3670-3685 area can be regarded as the second top of the medium term. The bearish trend is established in the medium term first, and adjustments are made in conjunction with the overall short-term operation, with the main short position and the auxiliary long position. This rebound is regarded as a 4-hour adjustment to accumulate momentum and break through to open up more space. A weak closing can continue to be weak based on low consolidation. Missing the good position near 3670 does not mean that there is no position to participate in shorting. You can give yourself 1-2 times of tolerance in the face of the trend. As long as the direction is grasped, the final result will be profitable. This is very important.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldenTrack_Daniel
Has gold reached its peak?The Federal Reserve's meeting met expectations with a 25 basis point interest rate cut, which did not significantly stimulate the market. Meanwhile, the market expects two more rate cuts in November and December this year. Gold briefly surged lower before retreating sharply. Is this a top or a normal correction in the bull market? The key to judging whether a market trend has ended is to look at the strength of the pullback. From a technical perspective, the price of gold has fallen below the 5-day moving average and is currently between the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average. The focus below is on the support formed by the 10-day moving average. The support level is currently in the 3645-3640 range, and this range is also yesterday's low point. Gold's ability to hold above the 10-day moving average remains to be seen. If it holds, it is expected to continue its upward trend. Focus on the 3680 first-line pressure level. If it breaks through this pressure, gold is expected to hit above 3700 again. A break below 3645 could lead to further declines to the 3620-3600 range.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Matthew_8888
Gold is about to face a stormGold fell continuously but found support around the 3,660 level and began to rebound—just as mentioned yesterday, the 3,658-3,662 range is a top-bottom conversion zone. As long as this level remains unbroken, the bullish trend is not over. However, given the upcoming interest rate decision, we remain bullish but will no longer chase highs, as we need to be cautious of a sudden trend reversal. Remember: the unchanged long-term trend does not mean there will be no corrections amid the uptrend. When most people start celebrating, we must maintain awe for the market. Focus on resistance around 3,685-3,690 and support around 3,658-3,662. Below are my personal views on the interest rate decision: It can be said that a rate cut at this meeting is almost a foregone conclusion; the only uncertainty is whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points. A 25-basis-point rate cut with a hawkish tone (45% probability) Currently, market expectations for a Fed rate cut are extremely high. The mainstream expectation on Wall Street is three 25-basis-point cuts in September, October, and December, totaling 75 basis points. If the Fed’s statement and Powell’s press conference fail to hint at a further rate cut outlook or implicitly approve a consecutive cut in October, this could well be interpreted as a "hawkish rate cut," and market expectations will tighten afterward. This will be the biggest risk of this meeting—there is potential for a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" move in the short term, pushing the U.S. dollar higher. Conversely, assets like U.S. stocks and gold may face selling pressure due to "bad news after good news," combined with profit-taking and technical overbought conditions. A 25-basis-point rate cut with neutral-to-dovish wording (45% probability) Compared with the Fed’s June projections, both the number and magnitude of rate cuts have increased, but Powell maintains ambiguous and neutral wording. This will fully align with current market expectations. In this scenario, the U.S. dollar will likely trade sideways in a lower range in the short term, while assets like U.S. stocks and gold will consolidate in higher ranges. The market will wait for new signals to seek a breakout. An unexpected 50-basis-point rate cut (10% probability) This scenario would be like a shot in the arm in the short term. Although most assets (except the weakening U.S. dollar) will benefit temporarily, it may trigger market concerns that the Fed has surrendered to political pressure and lost its independence, as well as deep worries about the U.S. economic situation. At the same time, a sharp U.S. rate cut will drastically narrow the interest rate differential with overseas markets, leading to a tendency for large amounts of U.S. dollar capital to flow out of the U.S. market—this will put short-term pressure on U.S. stocks. Therefore, this scenario may not be a real positive for U.S. stocks. In contrast, gold will benefit as safe-haven demand continues to be boosted.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Matthew_8888
In the game between bulls and bears, where will gold go?After a slight pullback yesterday, gold broke through the previous high of 3674 in the US session, reaching a high near 3685. After an intraday correction, it reached a new high in the European session, currently reaching 3699. Since the start of its strong rally, gold has gained nearly $386, almost continuously breaking new highs. Market expectations for bullishness have further intensified, and the current trend remains clearly bullish, with no signs of a significant bearish pullback. Short-term support is closely watched at 3675, a previous high and a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. If it stabilizes above this level, bulls are expected to regain momentum. The European high and the 3700 mark will become key short-term resistance levels. If it breaks through and stabilizes at 3700, it is expected to continue to rise to test resistance in the 3710-3720 area. In terms of operational thinking, if gold first rebounds to below 3700 and comes under pressure, you can try to short with a light position, with the target at 3685-3670 area; if it stays at 3700 for a long time, you need to adjust the short position in time, follow the trend and go long, waiting for a new round of upward opportunities.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldenTrack_Daniel
Will gold continue to rise?Brothers, we've been buying gold all the way up from 3350 to 3697. While our take-profit points aren't ideal, the general direction is correct, ensuring we won't be crushed by the market. Trend is king; go with the flow. When you trade with the trend, it feels effortless; when you fight it, everything turns messy. I know full well that when gold was surging, many of you didn’t dare to chase the rally. There were also friends stuck in losing positions, fixated on articles that called for shorting, while pieces advocating going long were ignored. But here’s a key point: the market won’t change because of your personal emotions. After days of consecutive consolidation, gold has held firm above the strong support at $3,600. A powerful bull market only requires courage and conviction. The prerequisite for a trend reversal is the breakdown of a key top-bottom conversion level. The hourly moving average has formed a golden cross and bullish formation, further expanding the upside potential for gold. Gold continues to hit new highs and higher lows, clearly maintaining a bullish trend. However, as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement draws closer, while considering the possibility of "buying in anticipation and selling in reality," and in order to control risk, everyone should exercise caution when chasing high prices. There is no obvious pressure from the top, and we need to pay attention to the recent top and bottom conversion position of 3658-3662. Before falling below this position, the market will remain strong.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Matthew_8888
Can gold break through the resistance level?Whether you go long or short, you can make money, the only exception is the greedy. To invest, you must block excitement, or at least don't get excited at the wrong time. Emotions play a key role in all transactions. Spend all your time studying trends, never go against the trends, learn to follow, and then you can learn the essence. There is no invincible general in the financial market, and a person cannot make money beyond the scope of cognition. Investing itself is an assessment of self-cognition. After gold fell to 3626, it rebounded slightly. It is still in a state of volatility as a whole, and the volatility is narrowing. From a technical point of view, the bullish momentum has not been exhausted, and the sideways movement of the gold market at this stage is far from over. From a big cycle perspective, 3675 is not a high point. However, as the interest rate decision approaches, both bulls and bears may turn to wait and see, and the short-term market is expected to be dominated by fluctuations, waiting for the Fed's monetary policy guidance! The upper resistance level is the pressure level formed by the two recent high points, and the support is at the lower track of the rising channel and the strong support of 3600.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Matthew_8888
With the interest rate cut coming, will gold fall or soar?The market is ever-changing. It's important to follow the trend; the trend is king. Plan your trades, trade your plans. How far one can go depends on who they walk with. How much a person can achieve in the market depends on who guides him. Let's witness what kind of turmoil gold will face next week with the Federal Reserve interest rate. Gold has grasped the overall rhythm very well this week, the trading plan was executed smoothly, and the profit performance was satisfactory. After a slight pullback on Friday, gold rose again, and was suppressed near 3655-3660 above, and the oscillation stopped. This position also plays a role of connecting the above and the following. If this position continues to fail to break through, gold may pull back again next week to test the support position below. Although it is still in a high sideways trend at the close, the upward momentum has also declined significantly. I think whether the bulls can regroup next week is particularly important, which directly affects the later trend. Next week's interest rate decision has become the focus. Both market news and technical aspects are bullish for gold. Let us wait and see next week. If you feel your recent trading results are unsatisfactory and would like to avoid detours through clearer trading strategies and risk control, please feel free to discuss this with me. Gold is currently in a high-level volatile pattern. After rising sharply and falling on Tuesday, it fell into a yin-yang alternating sweeping market. Before the Fed's interest rate decision, it is expected that the deadlock will be difficult to break. The market is waiting for guidance on policy direction. The key support is at the top and bottom conversion point and starting point of the 3610-3600 area. The bullish trend is maintained above it. If it breaks down, it may peak in stages. The trend suppression below Tuesday's highest point of 3674 is obvious. Next week, focus on the short-term support of the 3635-3630 area. If the Asian session tends to test the decline, the focus of the support below is near Thursday's low of 3610. If it breaks down, look at the 3600 and 3580 areas. If it breaks through the 3655 resistance above, it will turn strong in the short term and look at 3660 and the previous high. After breaking the high, focus on the 3680-3690 area. Maintain the overall range operation idea and follow the break.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldenTrack_Daniel
Can gold continue to rise next week?With the right direction, the journey is not a problem. Time will prove your strength, and strength will win the future. Let trust become profit. The market is ever-changing, and following the trend is the best path. When the trend emerges, act accordingly; don't buy against the tide. Gold had a relatively perfect week. After a slight pullback on Friday, it rose again. It found resistance around 3656-60 before oscillating and stalling. This level serves as a bridge between the past and the future. Next week's interest rate decision will be a key focus, and both market news and technical indicators are bullish for gold. Let's wait and see. If your current trading is not ideal, I hope I can help you avoid mistakes. From the 4-hour analysis, the support below is 3628-30, and the short-term bullish strong dividing line is 3600. If the daily level stabilizes above this position, it can continue to maintain the rhythm of pulling back to low and buying in line with the bullish trend. The main strategy is to buy on dips. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy during the trading session, so please pay attention to it in time.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Matthew_8888
Next week's Fed decision,Has the gold bull market peaked?Let's take a look at the trend of gold this week at the weekend. The strong bull market of gold has slowed down this week. After continuing to rise to 3600 on Monday, it rose and fell to a peak of 3675 on Tuesday. From Wednesday to Friday, it fluctuated at a high level. So, does gold still have the motivation to continue to rise in the current situation? Or is 3675 the ceiling? This recent surge in gold prices began at 3311, reaching a high of $364 at 3675. Based on previous upward trends, a bull market typically peaks just over $400. Therefore, with limited room above 3700, blind buying is discouraged. Be wary of a potential reversal of price action after reaching the peak, with the upper limit at 3750. All of this depends on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week. The market will become increasingly cautious as we approach this date. Therefore, gold is currently adjusting at a high level, just shy of a final acceleration towards the top. The uncertainty remains as to whether this acceleration will occur before or after the Fed's decision. If the rate cut is just 25 basis points, gold will have no further momentum to rally. Buying on expectations and selling on facts will lead to a peak and decline upon the announcement. However, if the rate cut is aggressively implemented by 50 basis points, gold will likely experience further upward momentum, most likely leading to a decline after a sharp rise. Therefore, gold is currently in a tailspin. At the end of the bull run, it's best to be bullish rather than chasing the market. It's prudent to wait for a pullback at key support levels before resuming a bullish trend. Two key support levels to watch are 3580 and 3511-3512. Having already seen four consecutive weekly gains, there's a high probability of a negative correction next week. Even if gold does rally next week, it will be the final stretch. The world's largest gold ETF has been steadily reducing its holdings in recent days, with bulls gradually taking profits. We shouldn't be tempted to buy at high levels, especially for medium- and long-term investors. It's important to emphasize that the overall trend and direction of gold remains upward, directly linked to the weakening US dollar. However, market trends aren't linear. After each bullish cycle, there's a deep correction, and this cycle repeats. This is how trends form. See if this pattern persists. Trading, then, is a process of finding the right position, following the trend and the swings. A cost-effective position gives you the confidence to hold onto your position without panic. For gold on Monday, expect continued volatility. Upper pressure lies between 3655 and 3660. A breakout would undoubtedly trigger a test of the 3675 high, leading to a potential surge and then a decline. Whether it can reach 3700 depends on the strength of the market, but I don't think the probability is high, at least for Monday. Lower support lies between 3635 and 3630, the 618 golden ratio. A break below would signal a short-term bearish bias, potentially leading to further declines to the 3610-3600 support levels.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldenTrack_Daniel
Can gold reach new highs?Gold is currently in a critical phase of long-short confrontation, with key focus on the resistance zone of 3,656-3,658 on the upside. This range is not only a periodic resistance formed after the previous price rally, but also a core verification point for the sustainability of short-term bullish momentum. From a technical perspective, only when the gold price breaks above and holds the 3,656-3,658 range effectively can the bullish trend reactivate its strong momentum, thereby continuing to challenge the previous high of 3,674. If the price remains constrained by this resistance before breaking through 3,656-3,658, the market will most likely maintain a range-bound consolidation pattern, with prices possibly fluctuating repeatedly at current high levels while awaiting guidance from the Federal Reserve next week. From a short-term perspective, gold generally presents a "consolidation with bullish bias" trend. Although the low points fluctuate, there is no obvious downward shift, and the price can quickly recover part of the lost ground after each pullback—this indicates that there is still support from buying interest below. Based on this, the evening trading strategy will center on "building long positions on pullbacks".
TVC:GOLDShort
by Matthew_8888
Will gold still rise?Gold has staged a rebound after testing the lows and is currently trading around the 3,638 level. As noted in this morning’s update, the short-term pullback is a result of profit-taking following the sharp rally—a relatively healthy price movement. As long as the $3,600 level holds, the market will remain in a bullish trend. However, it is now in a phase of long-short tug-of-war at high levels, especially since a correction is needed on the daily timeframe. The market is likely to swing up and down over the next couple of days as we await news on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut next week. If you’ve been struggling with your current positions or have seen underwhelming trading performance lately, it may be time to reevaluate your strategy and risk management settings. Feel free to reach out for discussions and exchanges.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Matthew_8888
Gold trend analysis continues to rise after consolidationGold trend: Today, gold focuses on the impact of CPI data, which may impact the temporary technical view. Today, the Asian and European sessions maintain a low-long bullish trend, with support at 3620-3610 and short-term focus on 3645-3655. The US data has little impact, so it depends on the range. If the data has a large impact, focus on 3600 below and 3680-3690 above. Gold has risen unilaterally in two transactions and fluctuated for one trading day this week. The current high of gold is 3675, and the decline is only around 3620. Therefore, it is obvious that gold is rising slowly under the bullish trend, and even if it fluctuates, it will not fall much. Then, to determine the direction, we must look at the upward space under the direction. We still don’t guess the top, but under the influence of data, we still have to discuss whether there will be a change in direction or a shift in strength in the near future. From a technical point of view, the daily line is still above the support of the 5-day moving average. If the 5-day moving average is not broken, there is no possibility of weakening. Although the 4-hour Bollinger Bands have closed, the middle track has not broken, and it is difficult to have a major adjustment. Therefore, the current market is still in a strong position. It is not clear whether gold has peaked or has a larger adjustment space. Therefore, if you want to trade, you still have to go long on the decline. So, today's market can be viewed in two steps. The European session is expected to fluctuate upward. Operate at key points and go long in the 3620-3610 support area below. Look at the 3645-3655 area above. If the US data has a greater impact, pay attention to the gains and losses of the 3600 key point below. It is still a good time to go long if it does not break.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldenTrack_Daniel
Stay bullish, stick to the direction.Gold prices did not continue to rise but instead fluctuated at high levels. Such fluctuations do not mean a short-term peak; only a drop back below $3,600 would warrant considering short-term short positions. The high-level consolidation on the 1-hour chart has not broken down, and after such a substantial rally, a minor short-term pullback is perfectly normal—there's no need for excessive concern. What's more important is to grasp the overall trend; pullbacks are just opportunities to get on board at a better price. The market is currently focused on next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which will be the real game-changing news. Therefore, holding the $3,600 level is crucial. As long as this level remains unbroken, the bullish momentum will continue to stay strong. I will closely track and analyze the market daily. If you're losing direction in this kind of market, feel free to follow me or leave me a message.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Matthew_8888
The decline is just an adjustment, gold still has new highsAccording to the strategy, we first arranged long orders near 3620, and the market rose smoothly to around 3650; then it fluctuated and consolidated, and according to the strength of the decline, we were prompted to go long again near 3640, and finally made a profit again near 3655, achieving two consecutive wins with open long orders, and reaping considerable profits overall. Congratulations to friends who have been paying attention. Many traders who blindly followed the trend and shorted in the market today are wailing, but we have always insisted on remaining unchanged in the face of change. After confirming the strong rhythm, we have made decisive and continuous attacks, steadily reaping profits, and the winning streak is still continuing. Gold is fluctuating upward above the 3640 level. It is currently fluctuating around the 3650 level. The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have not cooled down. The market may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the later period. Although gold rebounded on Wednesday, it did not reach a new high. The main structure is still operating within the expected range. However, after the market has stood above 3650, it brings uncertainty to the trend. Therefore, gold is still treated with the idea of going long on pullbacks. Going long on pullbacks is still the general trend. In terms of operation, I believe that we will continue to go long as the pullback does not break. From the 4-hour cycle, the bullish structure of gold remains stable. The short-term support below is around 3635-3625. The bullish strong dividing line has moved up to 3615. If this position is not broken, the pullback will rely on this area and continue to be bullish. At the daily level, as long as it stabilizes above 3615, the overall main tone of pulling back to low and long and following the trend will remain unchanged. In terms of operation, we should be patient and wait for the support to be confirmed. Low and long is still the general direction. As for the specific operation strategy of the counter-trend short position, I will remind you again at the key position, and everyone can pay attention to it in time. Gold operation strategy: Go long when gold falls back to around 3640-3630, with the target at 3655-3660. Continue to hold if it breaks through.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldenTrack_Daniel
Pullback for accumulation; bullish momentum remains promising.Gold broke upward against the resistance of the trendline, rising to a high of around 3,658. As indicated in the morning analysis, we have advised everyone to take partial profits first on positions entered below the 3,600 level to lock in gains. From the 1-hour candlestick chart, gold has consistently maintained a "gradual upward movement amid consolidation" rhythm, with lower lows continuing to move higher, and the stability of the trend structure is remarkable. During a one-sided upward trend, the market's response to data is biased: bullish news will be amplified, while bearish news will be overlooked. One should not rely excessively on data for trading; more seasoned traders understand the logic behind the data and the current market environment. For subsequent moves, when the price retraces to the hourly support level, those who have already taken profits can continue to follow up with long positions. We will closely track and analyze the market daily. If you lose your direction in such a market, you are welcome to follow us and leave a message for communication to obtain more targeted analysis and trading advice.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Matthew_8888
A pullback with a pause, yet the uptrend remains unchanged.The higher the gold price climbs, the more hesitant people become to take action. Those who sold gold early or waited for a lower entry point have completely missed out on this rally—some regret buying too little, some regret not buying at all, and even more regret exiting at a loss. The market works this way: it can never satisfy everyone. When it’s in consolidation, people long for a one-sided trend; when a one-sided trend arrives, they want to wait for a correction. Life is much the same—things rarely go smoothly at every turn. In an uptrend, a sharp drop is hard to sustain. Only when the secondary rebound fails to hit a new high and the subsequent pullback breaks below the previous low can the market shift into consolidation. Right now, $3,618 has become the key long-short dividing line. Currently, the market is edging higher along the hourly support level. Personally, I still hold a bullish view overall, but today’s momentum is noticeably weaker than before. Therefore, I will consider taking partial profits around the $3,658 level. I will closely track and analyze the market every day. If you lose your direction amid such market moves, you can follow me or leave me a message.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Matthew_8888