Gold fluctuations are under your control!After the gold interest rate decision, it went as we expected. Shorting near 3672, it first fell, and then going long near 3630 was bullish. The profit from this round trip was quite large.
First of all, looking at the current overall background, although the Fed has implemented an interest rate cut, the message it conveys is far from purely dovish. Powell's speech suggested that this action is not the beginning of a radical easing policy, but a prudent move to deal with economic uncertainty, especially the weakening labor market and stubborn inflation. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits in the United States in the week ending September 13 was 231,000, which was expected to be 240,000 and the previous value was 263,000. The data fell sharply from the abnormally high level of the previous week and returned to the normal range in the past four years.
From the perspective of gold technology, the 3670-3685 area can be regarded as the second top of the medium term. The bearish trend is established in the medium term first, and adjustments are made in conjunction with the overall short-term operation, with the main short position and the auxiliary long position. This rebound is regarded as a 4-hour adjustment to accumulate momentum and break through to open up more space. A weak closing can continue to be weak based on low consolidation. Missing the good position near 3670 does not mean that there is no position to participate in shorting. You can give yourself 1-2 times of tolerance in the face of the trend. As long as the direction is grasped, the final result will be profitable. This is very important.
Goldman_analysis
Has gold reached its peak?The Federal Reserve's meeting met expectations with a 25 basis point interest rate cut, which did not significantly stimulate the market.
Meanwhile, the market expects two more rate cuts in November and December this year. Gold briefly surged lower before retreating sharply. Is this a top or a normal correction in the bull market? The key to judging whether a market trend has ended is to look at the strength of the pullback.
From a technical perspective, the price of gold has fallen below the 5-day moving average and is currently between the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average. The focus below is on the support formed by the 10-day moving average. The support level is currently in the 3645-3640 range, and this range is also yesterday's low point. Gold's ability to hold above the 10-day moving average remains to be seen. If it holds, it is expected to continue its upward trend. Focus on the 3680 first-line pressure level. If it breaks through this pressure, gold is expected to hit above 3700 again. A break below 3645 could lead to further declines to the 3620-3600 range.
Gold is about to face a stormGold fell continuously but found support around the 3,660 level and began to rebound—just as mentioned yesterday, the 3,658-3,662 range is a top-bottom conversion zone. As long as this level remains unbroken, the bullish trend is not over. However, given the upcoming interest rate decision, we remain bullish but will no longer chase highs, as we need to be cautious of a sudden trend reversal. Remember: the unchanged long-term trend does not mean there will be no corrections amid the uptrend. When most people start celebrating, we must maintain awe for the market. Focus on resistance around 3,685-3,690 and support around 3,658-3,662.
Below are my personal views on the interest rate decision:
It can be said that a rate cut at this meeting is almost a foregone conclusion; the only uncertainty is whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points.
A 25-basis-point rate cut with a hawkish tone (45% probability)
Currently, market expectations for a Fed rate cut are extremely high. The mainstream expectation on Wall Street is three 25-basis-point cuts in September, October, and December, totaling 75 basis points. If the Fed’s statement and Powell’s press conference fail to hint at a further rate cut outlook or implicitly approve a consecutive cut in October, this could well be interpreted as a "hawkish rate cut," and market expectations will tighten afterward. This will be the biggest risk of this meeting—there is potential for a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" move in the short term, pushing the U.S. dollar higher. Conversely, assets like U.S. stocks and gold may face selling pressure due to "bad news after good news," combined with profit-taking and technical overbought conditions.
A 25-basis-point rate cut with neutral-to-dovish wording (45% probability)
Compared with the Fed’s June projections, both the number and magnitude of rate cuts have increased, but Powell maintains ambiguous and neutral wording. This will fully align with current market expectations. In this scenario, the U.S. dollar will likely trade sideways in a lower range in the short term, while assets like U.S. stocks and gold will consolidate in higher ranges. The market will wait for new signals to seek a breakout.
An unexpected 50-basis-point rate cut (10% probability)
This scenario would be like a shot in the arm in the short term. Although most assets (except the weakening U.S. dollar) will benefit temporarily, it may trigger market concerns that the Fed has surrendered to political pressure and lost its independence, as well as deep worries about the U.S. economic situation. At the same time, a sharp U.S. rate cut will drastically narrow the interest rate differential with overseas markets, leading to a tendency for large amounts of U.S. dollar capital to flow out of the U.S. market—this will put short-term pressure on U.S. stocks. Therefore, this scenario may not be a real positive for U.S. stocks. In contrast, gold will benefit as safe-haven demand continues to be boosted.
In the game between bulls and bears, where will gold go?After a slight pullback yesterday, gold broke through the previous high of 3674 in the US session, reaching a high near 3685. After an intraday correction, it reached a new high in the European session, currently reaching 3699. Since the start of its strong rally, gold has gained nearly $386, almost continuously breaking new highs. Market expectations for bullishness have further intensified, and the current trend remains clearly bullish, with no signs of a significant bearish pullback. Short-term support is closely watched at 3675, a previous high and a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. If it stabilizes above this level, bulls are expected to regain momentum. The European high and the 3700 mark will become key short-term resistance levels. If it breaks through and stabilizes at 3700, it is expected to continue to rise to test resistance in the 3710-3720 area.
In terms of operational thinking, if gold first rebounds to below 3700 and comes under pressure, you can try to short with a light position, with the target at 3685-3670 area; if it stays at 3700 for a long time, you need to adjust the short position in time, follow the trend and go long, waiting for a new round of upward opportunities.
Will gold continue to rise?Brothers, we've been buying gold all the way up from 3350 to 3697. While our take-profit points aren't ideal, the general direction is correct, ensuring we won't be crushed by the market. Trend is king; go with the flow. When you trade with the trend, it feels effortless; when you fight it, everything turns messy.
I know full well that when gold was surging, many of you didn’t dare to chase the rally. There were also friends stuck in losing positions, fixated on articles that called for shorting, while pieces advocating going long were ignored. But here’s a key point: the market won’t change because of your personal emotions.
After days of consecutive consolidation, gold has held firm above the strong support at $3,600. A powerful bull market only requires courage and conviction. The prerequisite for a trend reversal is the breakdown of a key top-bottom conversion level.
The hourly moving average has formed a golden cross and bullish formation, further expanding the upside potential for gold. Gold continues to hit new highs and higher lows, clearly maintaining a bullish trend. However, as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement draws closer, while considering the possibility of "buying in anticipation and selling in reality," and in order to control risk, everyone should exercise caution when chasing high prices. There is no obvious pressure from the top, and we need to pay attention to the recent top and bottom conversion position of 3658-3662. Before falling below this position, the market will remain strong.
Can gold break through the resistance level?Whether you go long or short, you can make money, the only exception is the greedy. To invest, you must block excitement, or at least don't get excited at the wrong time. Emotions play a key role in all transactions. Spend all your time studying trends, never go against the trends, learn to follow, and then you can learn the essence. There is no invincible general in the financial market, and a person cannot make money beyond the scope of cognition. Investing itself is an assessment of self-cognition.
After gold fell to 3626, it rebounded slightly. It is still in a state of volatility as a whole, and the volatility is narrowing. From a technical point of view, the bullish momentum has not been exhausted, and the sideways movement of the gold market at this stage is far from over. From a big cycle perspective, 3675 is not a high point. However, as the interest rate decision approaches, both bulls and bears may turn to wait and see, and the short-term market is expected to be dominated by fluctuations, waiting for the Fed's monetary policy guidance! The upper resistance level is the pressure level formed by the two recent high points, and the support is at the lower track of the rising channel and the strong support of 3600.
With the interest rate cut coming, will gold fall or soar?The market is ever-changing. It's important to follow the trend; the trend is king. Plan your trades, trade your plans. How far one can go depends on who they walk with. How much a person can achieve in the market depends on who guides him. Let's witness what kind of turmoil gold will face next week with the Federal Reserve interest rate.
Gold has grasped the overall rhythm very well this week, the trading plan was executed smoothly, and the profit performance was satisfactory. After a slight pullback on Friday, gold rose again, and was suppressed near 3655-3660 above, and the oscillation stopped. This position also plays a role of connecting the above and the following. If this position continues to fail to break through, gold may pull back again next week to test the support position below. Although it is still in a high sideways trend at the close, the upward momentum has also declined significantly. I think whether the bulls can regroup next week is particularly important, which directly affects the later trend. Next week's interest rate decision has become the focus. Both market news and technical aspects are bullish for gold. Let us wait and see next week. If you feel your recent trading results are unsatisfactory and would like to avoid detours through clearer trading strategies and risk control, please feel free to discuss this with me.
Gold is currently in a high-level volatile pattern. After rising sharply and falling on Tuesday, it fell into a yin-yang alternating sweeping market. Before the Fed's interest rate decision, it is expected that the deadlock will be difficult to break. The market is waiting for guidance on policy direction. The key support is at the top and bottom conversion point and starting point of the 3610-3600 area. The bullish trend is maintained above it. If it breaks down, it may peak in stages. The trend suppression below Tuesday's highest point of 3674 is obvious. Next week, focus on the short-term support of the 3635-3630 area. If the Asian session tends to test the decline, the focus of the support below is near Thursday's low of 3610. If it breaks down, look at the 3600 and 3580 areas. If it breaks through the 3655 resistance above, it will turn strong in the short term and look at 3660 and the previous high. After breaking the high, focus on the 3680-3690 area. Maintain the overall range operation idea and follow the break.
Can gold continue to rise next week?With the right direction, the journey is not a problem. Time will prove your strength, and strength will win the future. Let trust become profit. The market is ever-changing, and following the trend is the best path. When the trend emerges, act accordingly; don't buy against the tide.
Gold had a relatively perfect week. After a slight pullback on Friday, it rose again. It found resistance around 3656-60 before oscillating and stalling. This level serves as a bridge between the past and the future. Next week's interest rate decision will be a key focus, and both market news and technical indicators are bullish for gold. Let's wait and see. If your current trading is not ideal, I hope I can help you avoid mistakes.
From the 4-hour analysis, the support below is 3628-30, and the short-term bullish strong dividing line is 3600. If the daily level stabilizes above this position, it can continue to maintain the rhythm of pulling back to low and buying in line with the bullish trend. The main strategy is to buy on dips.
I will remind you of the specific operation strategy during the trading session, so please pay attention to it in time.
Next week's Fed decision,Has the gold bull market peaked?Let's take a look at the trend of gold this week at the weekend. The strong bull market of gold has slowed down this week. After continuing to rise to 3600 on Monday, it rose and fell to a peak of 3675 on Tuesday. From Wednesday to Friday, it fluctuated at a high level. So, does gold still have the motivation to continue to rise in the current situation? Or is 3675 the ceiling? This recent surge in gold prices began at 3311, reaching a high of $364 at 3675. Based on previous upward trends, a bull market typically peaks just over $400. Therefore, with limited room above 3700, blind buying is discouraged. Be wary of a potential reversal of price action after reaching the peak, with the upper limit at 3750. All of this depends on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week. The market will become increasingly cautious as we approach this date. Therefore, gold is currently adjusting at a high level, just shy of a final acceleration towards the top. The uncertainty remains as to whether this acceleration will occur before or after the Fed's decision. If the rate cut is just 25 basis points, gold will have no further momentum to rally. Buying on expectations and selling on facts will lead to a peak and decline upon the announcement. However, if the rate cut is aggressively implemented by 50 basis points, gold will likely experience further upward momentum, most likely leading to a decline after a sharp rise. Therefore, gold is currently in a tailspin. At the end of the bull run, it's best to be bullish rather than chasing the market. It's prudent to wait for a pullback at key support levels before resuming a bullish trend. Two key support levels to watch are 3580 and 3511-3512. Having already seen four consecutive weekly gains, there's a high probability of a negative correction next week. Even if gold does rally next week, it will be the final stretch. The world's largest gold ETF has been steadily reducing its holdings in recent days, with bulls gradually taking profits. We shouldn't be tempted to buy at high levels, especially for medium- and long-term investors. It's important to emphasize that the overall trend and direction of gold remains upward, directly linked to the weakening US dollar. However, market trends aren't linear. After each bullish cycle, there's a deep correction, and this cycle repeats. This is how trends form. See if this pattern persists. Trading, then, is a process of finding the right position, following the trend and the swings. A cost-effective position gives you the confidence to hold onto your position without panic. For gold on Monday, expect continued volatility. Upper pressure lies between 3655 and 3660. A breakout would undoubtedly trigger a test of the 3675 high, leading to a potential surge and then a decline. Whether it can reach 3700 depends on the strength of the market, but I don't think the probability is high, at least for Monday. Lower support lies between 3635 and 3630, the 618 golden ratio. A break below would signal a short-term bearish bias, potentially leading to further declines to the 3610-3600 support levels.
Can gold reach new highs?Gold is currently in a critical phase of long-short confrontation, with key focus on the resistance zone of 3,656-3,658 on the upside. This range is not only a periodic resistance formed after the previous price rally, but also a core verification point for the sustainability of short-term bullish momentum. From a technical perspective, only when the gold price breaks above and holds the 3,656-3,658 range effectively can the bullish trend reactivate its strong momentum, thereby continuing to challenge the previous high of 3,674. If the price remains constrained by this resistance before breaking through 3,656-3,658, the market will most likely maintain a range-bound consolidation pattern, with prices possibly fluctuating repeatedly at current high levels while awaiting guidance from the Federal Reserve next week.
From a short-term perspective, gold generally presents a "consolidation with bullish bias" trend. Although the low points fluctuate, there is no obvious downward shift, and the price can quickly recover part of the lost ground after each pullback—this indicates that there is still support from buying interest below. Based on this, the evening trading strategy will center on "building long positions on pullbacks".
Will gold still rise?Gold has staged a rebound after testing the lows and is currently trading around the 3,638 level. As noted in this morning’s update, the short-term pullback is a result of profit-taking following the sharp rally—a relatively healthy price movement. As long as the $3,600 level holds, the market will remain in a bullish trend. However, it is now in a phase of long-short tug-of-war at high levels, especially since a correction is needed on the daily timeframe. The market is likely to swing up and down over the next couple of days as we await news on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut next week.
If you’ve been struggling with your current positions or have seen underwhelming trading performance lately, it may be time to reevaluate your strategy and risk management settings. Feel free to reach out for discussions and exchanges.
Gold trend analysis continues to rise after consolidationGold trend: Today, gold focuses on the impact of CPI data, which may impact the temporary technical view. Today, the Asian and European sessions maintain a low-long bullish trend, with support at 3620-3610 and short-term focus on 3645-3655. The US data has little impact, so it depends on the range. If the data has a large impact, focus on 3600 below and 3680-3690 above. Gold has risen unilaterally in two transactions and fluctuated for one trading day this week. The current high of gold is 3675, and the decline is only around 3620. Therefore, it is obvious that gold is rising slowly under the bullish trend, and even if it fluctuates, it will not fall much. Then, to determine the direction, we must look at the upward space under the direction. We still don’t guess the top, but under the influence of data, we still have to discuss whether there will be a change in direction or a shift in strength in the near future.
From a technical point of view, the daily line is still above the support of the 5-day moving average. If the 5-day moving average is not broken, there is no possibility of weakening. Although the 4-hour Bollinger Bands have closed, the middle track has not broken, and it is difficult to have a major adjustment. Therefore, the current market is still in a strong position. It is not clear whether gold has peaked or has a larger adjustment space. Therefore, if you want to trade, you still have to go long on the decline. So, today's market can be viewed in two steps. The European session is expected to fluctuate upward. Operate at key points and go long in the 3620-3610 support area below. Look at the 3645-3655 area above. If the US data has a greater impact, pay attention to the gains and losses of the 3600 key point below. It is still a good time to go long if it does not break.
Stay bullish, stick to the direction.Gold prices did not continue to rise but instead fluctuated at high levels. Such fluctuations do not mean a short-term peak; only a drop back below $3,600 would warrant considering short-term short positions. The high-level consolidation on the 1-hour chart has not broken down, and after such a substantial rally, a minor short-term pullback is perfectly normal—there's no need for excessive concern. What's more important is to grasp the overall trend; pullbacks are just opportunities to get on board at a better price.
The market is currently focused on next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which will be the real game-changing news. Therefore, holding the $3,600 level is crucial. As long as this level remains unbroken, the bullish momentum will continue to stay strong.
I will closely track and analyze the market daily. If you're losing direction in this kind of market, feel free to follow me or leave me a message.
The decline is just an adjustment, gold still has new highsAccording to the strategy, we first arranged long orders near 3620, and the market rose smoothly to around 3650; then it fluctuated and consolidated, and according to the strength of the decline, we were prompted to go long again near 3640, and finally made a profit again near 3655, achieving two consecutive wins with open long orders, and reaping considerable profits overall. Congratulations to friends who have been paying attention. Many traders who blindly followed the trend and shorted in the market today are wailing, but we have always insisted on remaining unchanged in the face of change. After confirming the strong rhythm, we have made decisive and continuous attacks, steadily reaping profits, and the winning streak is still continuing.
Gold is fluctuating upward above the 3640 level. It is currently fluctuating around the 3650 level. The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have not cooled down. The market may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the later period. Although gold rebounded on Wednesday, it did not reach a new high. The main structure is still operating within the expected range. However, after the market has stood above 3650, it brings uncertainty to the trend. Therefore, gold is still treated with the idea of going long on pullbacks. Going long on pullbacks is still the general trend. In terms of operation, I believe that we will continue to go long as the pullback does not break.
From the 4-hour cycle, the bullish structure of gold remains stable. The short-term support below is around 3635-3625. The bullish strong dividing line has moved up to 3615. If this position is not broken, the pullback will rely on this area and continue to be bullish. At the daily level, as long as it stabilizes above 3615, the overall main tone of pulling back to low and long and following the trend will remain unchanged. In terms of operation, we should be patient and wait for the support to be confirmed. Low and long is still the general direction. As for the specific operation strategy of the counter-trend short position, I will remind you again at the key position, and everyone can pay attention to it in time.
Gold operation strategy: Go long when gold falls back to around 3640-3630, with the target at 3655-3660. Continue to hold if it breaks through.
Pullback for accumulation; bullish momentum remains promising.Gold broke upward against the resistance of the trendline, rising to a high of around 3,658. As indicated in the morning analysis, we have advised everyone to take partial profits first on positions entered below the 3,600 level to lock in gains. From the 1-hour candlestick chart, gold has consistently maintained a "gradual upward movement amid consolidation" rhythm, with lower lows continuing to move higher, and the stability of the trend structure is remarkable.
During a one-sided upward trend, the market's response to data is biased: bullish news will be amplified, while bearish news will be overlooked. One should not rely excessively on data for trading; more seasoned traders understand the logic behind the data and the current market environment.
For subsequent moves, when the price retraces to the hourly support level, those who have already taken profits can continue to follow up with long positions. We will closely track and analyze the market daily. If you lose your direction in such a market, you are welcome to follow us and leave a message for communication to obtain more targeted analysis and trading advice.
A pullback with a pause, yet the uptrend remains unchanged.The higher the gold price climbs, the more hesitant people become to take action. Those who sold gold early or waited for a lower entry point have completely missed out on this rally—some regret buying too little, some regret not buying at all, and even more regret exiting at a loss.
The market works this way: it can never satisfy everyone. When it’s in consolidation, people long for a one-sided trend; when a one-sided trend arrives, they want to wait for a correction. Life is much the same—things rarely go smoothly at every turn.
In an uptrend, a sharp drop is hard to sustain. Only when the secondary rebound fails to hit a new high and the subsequent pullback breaks below the previous low can the market shift into consolidation. Right now, $3,618 has become the key long-short dividing line.
Currently, the market is edging higher along the hourly support level. Personally, I still hold a bullish view overall, but today’s momentum is noticeably weaker than before. Therefore, I will consider taking partial profits around the $3,658 level.
I will closely track and analyze the market every day. If you lose your direction amid such market moves, you can follow me or leave me a message.
Is gold at its peak?Gold has staged a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" move. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls data was bullish for gold, yet gold plummeted after the data release. There’s no need for confusion—it’s not as you might think, that bullish data means the price rises and bearish data means it falls. If it were that simple, everyone would be making money.
Data and fundamentals are reflected in prices, but such reflections can be ahead of time, lagging, exceeding expectations, or falling short of expectations. Judging which scenario it is depends solely on the historical database one has accumulated and long-term real-trading experience.
Today, I added to my gold positions twice and am still holding them. Even if the price falls further, my profits won’t decrease. This is because I believe today’s decline is most likely a result of some profit-taking traders closing their positions on the opportunity—after all, there have been no major bearish factors in the fundamentals yet. Whether a daily-level correction will occur still requires further observation. After all, since the rally started on August 20, there has been no real daily-level correction except for the sharp intraday pullback on September 4, and a correction would actually make the trend healthier.
The period from now to next week is a critical short-term window for gold. I will closely track and analyze the market every day. If you lose your direction in such a market, you can follow me or leave me a message.
XAU/USD 09 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has finally printed a bullish iBOS, in-line with analysis dated 23 April 2025
As mentioned in analysis dated 04 September 2025, with respect to alternative scenario, price could potentially continue higher, is how price printed, price continued its upward trajectory printing all-time-highs.
Price previously printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation, however, due to the insignificant nature of the pullback, particularly relative to previous price action, I will apply discretion and not classify previous iBOS, I have marked this in red.
Price has continued with it's upward trajectory. We are now trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Price to then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,659.435.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed according to analysis dated 13 June 2025 by targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375 and printing a bullish iBOS.
Price has continued with its bullish trajectory printing all-time-highs.
Price is currently trading within and internal low and internal high as price has printed a bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,659.435.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially continue bullish.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold Outlook: Macro, Bonds, and Geopolitics Driving the Rally
1. Labor Market Weakness → Fed Pivot Risk
The latest NFP showed just 22K jobs vs. 75K expected, with unemployment climbing to 4.3%. Revisions were deeply negative (-258K), confirming labor market deterioration. Historically, recessions often follow once unemployment rises 0.5–1% from cycle lows — we’re already in that zone.
This means the Fed is boxed in: growth is slowing but inflation is still sticky.
Markets are pricing in a September Fed rate cut, weakening USD and boosting safe-haven demand for Gold.
2. Bonds & Yield Curve Dynamics
US Treasury Yields have started to retreat as bond traders price in Fed cuts. The 2-year yield, which tracks Fed expectations, is easing from highs, signaling policy loosening ahead.
A steeper yield curve could emerge if short-term yields fall faster than long-term, historically bullish for Gold as opportunity cost declines.
Real yields (inflation-adjusted) matter most for Gold. With core inflation at 3.1% and slowing growth, if nominal yields fall but inflation stays sticky, real yields compress lower → Gold rallies.
3. Inflation & Stagflation Risk
Inflation is at 3.1%, above the Fed’s 2% target, while growth is slowing.
This is classic stagflation risk: weak labor + sticky inflation = policy paralysis.
For Gold, stagflation is one of the strongest bullish regimes: fiat currencies lose real value, while safe-havens gain demand.
4. Geopolitical Tailwinds
Tariff pressures and trade disputes are pushing input costs higher. Tariffs are inflationary and growth-negative — another stagflation driver.
Rising geopolitical tensions (trade wars, supply chain disruptions, regional conflicts) add a risk premium. In times of geopolitical uncertainty, central banks (China, India, Middle East) often increase Gold reserves as a hedge against USD exposure.
BRICS talk of de-dollarization is structurally supportive: even a small reserve shift from USD to Gold creates steady demand.
5. Forward Outlook
Near-term (1–3 months): Fed cut in September almost certain. USD likely to weaken further, Gold stays bid. Volatility spikes around CPI (Sept 11) and FOMC (Sept 17).
Medium-term (3–6 months): If inflation doesn’t fall below 3%, Fed may slow rate cuts, but Gold could still benefit from safe-haven + central bank buying.
Key Catalysts to Monitor: September CPI, Fed meetings, earnings season (margin compression risk), geopolitical escalations, tariff policies.
Never predict the top; go long with the trendThe bullish momentum for gold is unstoppable, with basically no significant pullbacks. Therefore, gold will only continue to stay strong for now. It is basically impossible to wait for a major pullback in gold at the moment—if a sharp pullback starts, it will no longer be a correction. The current market follows the rule: "A strong trend sees no correction; a correction means no strength."
The 1-hour moving averages of gold remain in a bullish divergence pattern with a golden cross trending upward. After breaking above the 3,600 level, gold has continued to move higher. Now that it has broken through and held above 3,600, this level will become a key support for gold in the short term. In such a strong market, gold usually resumes its strength after a pullback of around 20 US dollars. Those who haven’t entered the market can go long on dips around 3,620 in line with the trend. Those who already hold positions can just keep holding.
A real trending market won’t end so soon. Gold is now in a major bull market cycle—there’s no need to predict the top during a rally. Following the trend means going long; we’ll keep the gold bullish trade going all the way.
If you feel confused about the future market trend, or if you have not yet made profits in such a market, follow me and leave me a message – let me help you resolve this issue.
GOLD analysis in time frame 4h
🔹 If price trades above 3595:
• The trend will likely continue upward toward the resistance level at 3630.
• A breakout above 3630 and holding above it (on the 4-hour or 1-hour candle) would confirm a continuation upward toward 3680.
⸻
🔹 If price fails and breaks below 3595:
• The trend will likely move downward toward the support level at 3560.
• This support is strong, but if it is broken, the trend may fully shift into a deeper decline.
⸻
📌 In short:
• Above 3595 → bullish trend (targets 3630 → 3680).
• Below 3595 → bearish trend (targets 3560 → further downside).
Whether gold can break through 3500 becomes the keyGold fell at the opening today before rising. Following the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit's ruling that Trump's tariffs were illegal, the market rebounded strongly, reaching a high of 3489, edging closer to its all-time high.
Our sell order on Friday was hit by the stop loss of 3460 because we did not close the profit in time, which unfortunately ended our continuous profit streak.
As the gold price approaches its historical high, the resistance it faces from above will certainly become stronger. It is very critical whether it can break through 3500 in the next two days. If it fails to break through, it will face a decline.
Therefore, you must not chase the current rise in gold, at least before it breaks through 3500 or retreats to the support below.
The US market is closed today for Labor Day, reducing liquidity and volatility. Therefore, I don't anticipate many good trading opportunities. Everyone should relax and take it easy. I'll notify you if I see a good opportunity.






















