XAUUSD Outlook Monthly / Weekly ( 1st -5th Sept )Hello Traders,
Welcome to a fresh month and a brand-new week! Once again, last week’s plan unfolded just as we mapped it out — I trust many of you managed to catch those green (or blue, whichever you prefer) prints.
Now as we roll into September, gold sits at a pivotal supply zone. The 3500 liquidity magnet is pulling price, but the stretched EMAs warn of a possible retracement. Key levels are clear: bulls must defend 3400–3360, or else we risk a revisit toward the 3250–3120 liquidity pocket.
My bias remains bullish while 3400 holds. Gold is testing supply, and a sweep of the 3500 liquidity magnet looks probable. A bearish shift only comes if 3360 breaks.
And don’t forget — NFP Friday is the major decision point this week.
Let’s dive into the setups and see how we can position for another profitable month and week ahead. ✨
🔑 High-Level Summary
Macro Trend: Still bullish, but price is pressing into premium supply zones (3460–3500).
Bias: Bullish above 3400; bearish shift only if 3360 (H4 cluster) breaks.
Main Magnet: 3500 liquidity pool + Fibo expansions at 3520–3530 and 3600–3620.
Risk: Extremely stretched above EMAs → a corrective wick/pullback likely in September.
🟡 Monthly View
Supply: 3460–3500 (premium, untested).
Demand: 2800–2850 (macro HL + EMA21 confluence).
Liquidity Wick: 3250–3120 (likely sweep/re-accumulation, not clean OB).
Progression Map:
Bullish → Break & hold 3460–3500 → 3550–3600, then 3700–3720.
Bearish → Rejection at 3460–3500 → pullback 3320 → possibly sweep 3250–3120.
Bias: Bullish above 3300; bearish shift only on monthly close <3120.
🔵 Weekly View
Supply: 3460–3500 (key liquidity).
Demand:
3360–3340 (shallow, first cushion).
3280–3250 (EMA21 ~3222, strong accumulation).
Progression Map:
Bullish → Break above 3500 → 3550–3575 → 3600–3620.
Bearish → Rejection → correction 3340 → 3250.
Bias: Bullish above 3340, neutral in 3460–3340 range, bearish below 3250.
🔴 Daily View
Supply: 3460–3480.
Decision Zone: 3400–3380 (EMA21).
Demand: 3340–3320 (EMA100 confluence).
Liquidity Zone: 3260–3240.
Bias:
Bullish while >3400.
Neutral 3480–3400.
Bearish only if <3320.
🟠 H4 View
Supply: 3450–3470 (wick rejection).
Liquidity Magnet: 3485–3500.
Demand Zones:
3420–3400 (Decision Demand, EMA21).
3380–3360 (stacked EMA cluster 50/100/200).
Fibo Targets: 3520–3530, 3600–3620.
Bias: Bullish >3400, neutral 3470–3400, bearish <3360.
🟢 H1 Intraday View
Supply: 3495–3475 (major rejection zone).
Liquidity Magnet: 3500 (ATH cluster).
Demand Ladders: 3435–3425 → 3415–3405 → 3395–3380 → 3375–3360.
Bias: Bullish above 3435–3425. Bearish only under 3395–3380.
🎯 Bottom Line (September Setup)
Upside path: Break 3460–3500 → sweep ATH 3500 → 3520–3530 → 3600+.
Downside path: Rejection at 3460–3500 → correction 3400 → 3360.
Big liquidity re-accumulation: 3250–3120 (if deeper pullback).
Catalyst: NFP (Sept 5) likely decides whether Gold expands higher or retraces.
📌 Educational only, not financial advice
