XAUUSD: Reversal confirmationOANDA:XAUUSD had a significant correction immediately after establishing a new ATH at 3897 with strong bearish momentum, I assess that 3897 will be the top in the near future and the market will begin to correct from here. With the U.S. government currently shut down and the release time of the nonfarm data possibly delayed, it is highly likely that gold will not experience unusual volatility and will continue to correct to lower levels.
Price is currently trading below the trendline, and the bullish structure has been broken with heavy volume, while the rebound shows low momentum, indicating this is a strong break.
As I analyzed in yesterday’s session, CME traders have pushed a large number of long put contracts into the market to hedge against a decline. Therefore, price may continue to fall in today’s session as the nonfarm release is postponed. You can read my previous analysis here:
Resistance:
Support:
Strong support:
Trading plan: Look for sell entry at the resistance zone on the 5m timeframe when a reversal signal with large selling volume appears as indicated by Quantum Vol-Delta.
Place stop loss just above the nearest M5 swing high or above the resistance zone.
Move to break-even at 1R (R:R=1:1).
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Goldplan
Gold Adjusts After Hitting 3,895 USD Peak📊 Market Overview:
Gold reached a record high of 3,895 USD/ounce before correcting down to 3,866 USD/ounce. This adjustment occurred after a strong rally driven by safe-haven demand amid U.S. political uncertainty and expectations of a Fed rate cut.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Nearest Resistance: 3,900 USD/ounce
• Farther Resistance: 3,950 USD/ounce → psychological level and previous strong selling zone; if surpassed, the uptrend may continue.
• Nearest Support: 3,850 USD/ounce
• Farther Support: 3,820 USD/ounce → key level in case of a strong pullback, likely to trigger significant buying.
• EMA: Price is above EMA 09 → bullish trend.
• Candlestick / Volume / Momentum: Bullish candlestick pattern with increasing volume indicates strong buying pressure, but watch price reaction near resistance 3,900–3,950.
📌 Market Outlook:
Gold may continue rising if buying pressure persists and the Fed cuts interest rates. However, if the price fails to hold 3,850, it could test the farther support at 3,820.
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy:
BUY XAU/USD : 3,850 - 3847
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
❌ SL: 3,844 USD
XAUUSD: Seeking new highsOANDA:XAUUSD has rebounded sharply back to the prior highs after a correction from 3871 to 3795. With no clear loss of upside momentum, this looks like a classic shakeout before another push higher. For today’s session, the plan is to keep looking for longs , with a primary objective at 3915.
You can read my previous analysis here:
Price is currently meeting resistance at with notable selling pressure, a dip into support may precede the next leg up.
The 3915 area is a logical upside magnet, where CME participants reportedly hold sizeable long-call exposure—a level price may aim to tag.
Key resistance: .
Key support: , .
Trading Plan
Buy setup: Look for Quantum Vol-Delta confirmation of buying pressure on lower timeframes (5m) as price pulls back into .
Contingency: Watch 3836 (POC session/daily liquidity) . Price may sweep this level and rebound.
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Gold Pulls Back After Hitting $3,895 – Consolidation Before 3900📊 Market Overview
Gold reached a new high at $3,895, approaching the psychological $3,900 level, before facing profit-taking pressure and retreating toward $3,885. The market shows caution when testing strong resistance, as the USD remains weak and safe-haven demand persists.
📈 Technical Analysis
• Near-term Resistance: $3,895 – $3,900
• Strong Resistance: $3,915
• Near-term Support: $3,873 – $3,870
• Strong Support: $3,860 – $3,850
• EMA20 (H1): Price remains above EMA20, keeping the short-term uptrend intact.
• H1 Candlestick: Long upper wick at $3,895 indicates strong selling pressure at resistance, raising the risk of a short-term pullback.
📌 Outlook
Gold maintains its short-term bullish trend, but the $3,895–$3,900 zone remains a key barrier. A breakout could push price to $3,915, while a correction to $3,880–$3,872 would be normal consolidation before further gains. A break below $3,872 may drive price toward $3,860.
🎯 Trading Strategy
🔺 BUY XAU/USD
• Entry: $3,872 – $3,869
• 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
• 🛑 SL: $3,866
Short-term Bullish with Key Resistance Ahead📊 Market Overview
Gold is currently trading around $3,876.80/oz, after a strong rally in the previous session. Buying pressure remains stable as the USD shows signs of weakness, while safe-haven demand stays elevated. However, the market is cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. economic data releases.
📈 Technical Analysis
• Near-term Resistance: $3,885 – $3,895
• Strong Resistance: $3,915
• Near-term Support: $3,860 – $3,850
• Strong Support: $3,835
• EMA20 (H1): Price is holding above EMA20, indicating that the short-term uptrend remains intact.
• H1 Candlestick: Small-bodied candles suggest slowing bullish momentum, with potential for a technical pullback before resuming the trend.
📌 Outlook
Gold maintains a short-term bullish trend, but the $3,885–$3,895 zone will be a key challenge. A breakout above this level could drive price toward the psychological $3,900 mark and further to $3,915. Conversely, if profit-taking increases, price may retest the $3,860–$3,850 support zone.
🎯 Trading Strategy
🔺 BUY XAU/USD: $3,845 – $3,850
• 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
• 🛑 SL: $3,840
🔻 SELL XAU/USD: $3,885 – $3,895
• 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
• 🛑 SL: $3,900
GOLD PLAN TODAY | XAUUSD OCTOBER.1 📊Overall Trend
🔤 Gold is still in a strong bullish structure, confirmed by multiple consecutive BOS (Break of Structure) events.
🔤Several FVG (Fair Value Gaps) have been created and filled along the way, showing that Smart Money is still in control of the market flow.
🔤Current price is hovering around 3867 – 3870, retesting the previous high after bouncing strongly from the 3800 FVG zone.
💡 Trading Plan
🔼Scenario 1: Buy Continuation (Priority Plan)
Conditions: Price retests the 3820 – 3830 FVG zone and forms bullish confirmation (rejection wick, bullish engulfing, or minor CHoCH on M5/M15).
Reason: The overall market remains bullish. Smart Money often drives price back to FVG for re-entry before the next impulse move.
Entry: Buy limit at 3825 – 3830.
🔼 Scenario 2: Buy Deeper Retest
Conditions: If price breaks below 3820, wait for reaction at 3780 – 3800 FVG.
Reason: Strong demand zone aligned with previous BOS, highly likely for Smart Money accumulation.
Entry: Buy at 3790 – 3800.
🔽Scenario 3: Short-Term Sell (Aggressive & Risky)
Conditions: If price closes below 3820 and confirms a bearish CHoCH on M15/H1.
Reason: This would signal the first real sign of Smart Money shifting direction.
Entry: Sell at 3825 – 3830 on retest.
XAUUSD: The last bull run?FXOPEN:XAUUSD keeps grinding higher, but the structure suggests this may be the last impulse of the current move. I expect price to complete the advance into the large liquidity pocket at before a sharper correction, as upside momentum has started to fade.
You can read my previous analysis here:
CME flow shows heavy long-call positioning around 3867. A failure back below 3867 would likely open a deeper pullback.
That said, there is still a Margin Zone/liquidity pool at actively traded by CME participants, so price may push through 3867 toward before reversing.
Watch 3828 (prior session POC) — price can react and bounce from 3828 without visiting the deeper supports.
Key support: ,
Margin Zone:
Trading Plan
Sell: Look for strong sell signals from Quantum Vol-Delta on the M5/M1 timeframes inside .
Buy: If price pulls back into the key supports, wait for Quantum Vol-Delta to confirm buyers returning → Enter on the candle close.
Risk management:
Stop loss: below/above the most recent 5m timeframe swing low/high or beyond the respective support/resistance zone.
Move to break-even at +1R (R:R = 1:1).
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Gold Holds Near Record Highs, Eyes 3,870 Test📊 Market Overview:
Gold is trading around the record area of 3,867 as the US dollar weakens and expectations rise for the Fed to shift toward monetary easing. Concerns over slowing US growth and safe-haven demand continue to support prices.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: 3,870 – 3,880
• Extended Resistance: 3,900 – 3,920
• Nearest Support: 3,840 – 3,830
• Extended Support: 3,800 – 3,790
• EMA09: Price remains above the EMA09 on H1, signaling short-term bullish bias.
• Momentum: RSI is overbought, suggesting a possible pullback before further upside.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may see a short-term pullback toward 3,840 before extending gains toward 3,880 – 3,900 if USD weakness persists.
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD : 3,872 – 3,875
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
❌ SL: 3,878
🔺 BUY XAU/USD: 3,838 – 3,835
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
❌ SL: 3,832
GOLD PLAN TODAY | XAUUSD SEP.30 ☄️ Gold Market Outlook 09/ 30 (Based on SMC) ☄️
📊Trend Analysis
🔤Price is at 3865+, marking a continuation of the strong bullish trend.
🔤Clear BOS (Break of Structure) at multiple levels confirms order flow remains bullish.
🔤Several FVGs are stacked below (3,850 – 3,835 – 3,800), acting as potential demand zones where Smart Money may retrace to fill liquidity gaps.
🔤No CHoCH (Change of Character) yet → trend bias stays bullish.
💡 Trading Plan
🔼Scenario 1: Buy on Shallow Retracement
Entry: 3850 – 3855 (first FVG zone).
Reason: Trend continuation, price often respects first FVG in strong bullish momentum.
Condition: Wait for bullish rejection on M5/M15.
🔼Scenario 2: Buy on Deeper Retracement
Entry: 3835 – 3840 (second FVG).
Reason: High-probability demand zone where liquidity may be collected.
Condition: Look for BOS upwards on lower timeframe before entering.
🔼Scenario 3: Breakout Buy
Entry: On a clean BOS above 3870 with retest confirmation.
Reason: If momentum continues without retracement, Smart Money may drive price higher directly.
Condition: Candle close above 3870 + retest as support.
XAUUSD: Trend is your friend, follow it!Price remains in a strong uptrend with no clear signs of momentum weakness yet. That said, this appears to be the final leg of the current advance, so chasing highs is risky. I prefer to stand aside for now and wait for price-action confirmation of a top.
1) Analysis
Price has broken above the prior high at 3.791, but the Superior RSI has not reached the overbought zone and is showing early signs of divergence on 1h timeframe.
The area is a high-activity auction zone on CM E, from here I expect a short pullback into lower supports.
Key support: , , .
2) Primary Scenarios
Scenario A (bearish): If price breaks below and drives into lower supports, then 3.818 will likely mark the swing high, and a deeper correction should follow.
Scenario B (bullish extension): If price respects the support zone and breaks above 3818 then I expect price to at least top at 3866 where CME traders place a large amount of auction contracts and start a correction.
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Gold Hits New High at $3831 – Can the Rally Hold?📌 Market Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) surged today, marking a fresh high at $3831/oz, breaking well above previous resistance zones. The rally was fueled by expectations of a potential Fed policy adjustment, a weaker USD, and rising safe-haven demand amid ongoing financial and geopolitical uncertainties.
📊 Technical Analysis
• Key Resistance: 3831 (new high) – 3850
• Immediate Support: 3805 – 3790
• EMA 50 & EMA 200 (H1/H4): Both trending upward, confirming short-term bullish momentum.
• RSI (H1): Approaching overbought territory >70, signaling potential short-term correction.
• Chart Pattern: Strong parabolic rally, though vulnerable to a pullback toward support.
🧐 Outlook
The current uptrend remains supported by safe-haven flows and policy easing expectations. However, with gold posting new highs, profit-taking pressure may emerge near the 3830–3850 zone. A technical pullback to test support is a likely scenario in the short term.
🎯 Trading Strategy
• Cautious BUY: Consider buying on pullbacks toward 3805–3790, SL below 3785.
• Short-term SELL (scalping): Consider selling near 3830–3835, SL above 3840, short TP of 40–80 pips.
• Risk management is essential — avoid FOMO entries at the peak levels.
9.30 Gold continues to hit new highsThe gold market continued to rise yesterday. It opened at 3759.9 in the morning and then fell back. The daily low was 3756.3 and then the market fluctuated and rose strongly. The daily high touched the daily high of 3834.2 and then consolidated. The daily line finally closed at 3833.9. The daily line closed with a saturated large bullish candle with a slight shadow. After ending this pattern, today's market retraced to more levels. In terms of points, the long positions at 3325 and 3322 below and the long positions at 3368-3370 last week and the long positions at 3377, 3385 and 3563 were reduced and the stop loss was followed up at 3650. Today's long positions at 3805 are conservative at 3802, and the stop loss is 3798. The target is 3838, 3845 and 3852-3855 pressure.
9.30 Gold New High Technical Analysis!!!Technical Analysis:
From a 4-hour perspective, short-term support is seen at 3800-05, with key support remaining around 3785-90. Short-term resistance is seen at 3830-35. Trading strategies should prioritize buying on dips. In the interim, caution is advised with caution when buying, patiently waiting for key entry points.
9.29 Gold price hits a new highOn the hourly chart, gold successfully broke through the $3,700 mark last week and continued its strong performance by breaking through $3,800 on Monday. For support, the $3,800 mark is a key level. Gold prices surged higher this morning, and after a breakout, prices continued to rise. For upward pressure, the intraday high, also a historical high, at $3,819 is also near the upper limit of the daily Bollinger Band. If gold prices stabilize at $3,800 and reach new all-time highs, the upward trend is expected, with no predictions of a top. The 5-day moving average and the MACD indicator are forming a golden cross, while the KDJ and RSI indicators are forming a golden cross in overbought territory. Short-term technical indicators suggest that bulls maintain their advantage.
5 Mistakes Even Veteran Traders Make!Whether you're new or experienced, you can still fall into these 5 DEADLY mistakes. I'm here to point them out!
Mistake #1: Not understanding what you’re trading.
You’re trading forex, right? But do you know what pips or lots are? How currency pairs move? Or how news impacts them? Too many people dive in just because they see others profiting, without knowing what they’re betting on. That’s the difference between investing and gambling.
Don’t jump into the ocean without knowing what’s underwater.
Mistake #2: Not managing your money.
Most traders obsess over making money but forget how to protect it. It’s human nature—everyone wants fast cash! But if you trade big without control, one bad move can wipe out a month or even a year’s gains. Remember, keeping your capital safe is priority number one; profits come as a result.
As long as you’ve got the forest, you won’t run out of firewood.
Mistake #3: No clear trading plan.
Are you entering trades based on feelings? Exiting because of a “hunch”? That’s not trading—it’s playing the lottery! A trading plan is your compass, your map to stay on track. It needs clear entry points, stop-loss levels, and profit targets. Most importantly, you MUST stick to it!
Sticking to strategy doesn't make us invincible, but it can help us retreat safely.
Mistake #4: FOMO – Fear of Missing Out!
You see prices soaring and chase them, or you copy someone’s trade because they’re showing off profits. Then, when you lose, you blame the market or some “expert,” forgetting it was YOUR choice to trade. Drop this habit! Stop following the crowd and own your trading decisions.
You can’t live by envying someone else’s wallet.
Mistake #5: Trading addiction and chasing short-term wins.
Win one trade, and you want more. Lose one, and you want to “get even” with the market. This traps you in a cycle of overtrading and rash decisions. Profits don’t come from trading a lot—they come from trading RIGHT.
Don’t let emotions take over. Remember, When emotions rise, logic falls.
These 5 mistakes can burn all your money, no matter how much you have. Be honest with yourself and learn from them. I believe if you avoid these traps and stay disciplined, the door to success will open wide.
I’m Anfibo, just sharing what I know about finance.
Gold Price Analysis – XAU/USD Hits New All-Time High at 3812🌍 Market Developments
Gold prices continue to surge, reaching a new record high at $3,810/oz in today’s session. The rally is driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a dovish policy stance, a weakening US dollar, and falling US Treasury yields. Safe-haven demand is also supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and fears of a global economic slowdown.
📈 Technical Analysis
• Key Resistance: 3815 – 3825
• Immediate Support: 3785 – 3770, with deeper support at 3750
• EMA 50 & 100: both trending upward, confirming strong bullish momentum
• H1 and H4 candles show powerful upward momentum, though RSI is approaching overbought territory → possible pullbacks or short-term volatility
💡 Outlook
The primary trend remains bullish, but the sharp rally after setting a new record may trigger profit-taking around the 3815 – 3830 zone. As long as gold holds above 3770, the bullish bias remains intact.
🎯 Trading Strategy Suggestion
🔺 BUY XAU/USD : 3780 – 3777
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
🛑 SL: 3773
🔻 SELL XAU/USD : 3817 – 3822
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
🛑 SL: 3827
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for price to support at the beginning of the week, hopefully in to the red box, and then push upside into the higher red box. This move worked well for the long trade, however, it was at that region we ideally wanted to short back down into the lower liquidity pools. We didn’t get this move due to the red box breaking above, so we continued with the bias and the target levels and managed to complete some fantastic long trades, as well as an extremely decent short hitting Excalibur on the nose.
Not a bad week, even though the plan wasn’t as successful as tends to be.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
We had bullish Friday after the break out, but the last few hours you can see some profit taking in process. We’re now still above our bias level 3740-45 but the issue we have here is there is still no breach of the red box defence above, which again held strong late session on Friday. We’re also flagging which is another concern, so, for that reason, we’ll say, resistance above is the 3767-75 region, which if targeted and held during the early session can take us back into the order region 3750-40 which is where a potential opportunity may come to attempt the long trade upside to target that all time high again.
Please note, the 3795-3810 needs a strong daily close above it to go higher, so we won’t be looking to get trapped high in a potential move that can turn again! That for us is the level to watch if price attempts that level.
We have a lot of news this week including NFP, with tomorrow looking like it could be a ranging day playing those order regions.
It's the last few days of the month, so we'll have to play level to level intra-day and wait for the monthly close for a clearer picture. Right now, levels are level, boxes are boxes, we'll stick with the plan and move with the market where ever it goes.
RED BOX TARGETS:
Break above 3765 for 3773, 3777, 3785, 3796 and 3802 in extension of the move
Break below 3750 for 3744, 3740, 3732 and 3720 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Gold rebounds, sideways 3740 – 3755📊 Market Developments
After dropping from 3754 to 3740, gold quickly rebounded and is now trading around 3753. Buyers have stepped in strongly at the support zone, but the overall trend has yet to break out.
📉 Technical Analysis
• Near resistance: 3755 – 3765
• Strong resistance: 3780
• Near support: 3740 – 3735
• Key support: 3700
• Price is fluctuating around the EMA50, showing short-term sideways movement, while the overall trend remains slightly bearish.
📌 Outlook
Gold continues to move within the 3740 – 3755 range. Buying pressure holds the price above 3740, but selling pressure emerges strongly at 3755. A clear breakout is needed to determine the next move.
🎯 Trading Strategy
🔻 SELL XAU/USD : 3762 – 3765
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
🛑 SL: 3768
🔺 BUY XAU/USD : 3695 – 3700
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
🛑 SL: 3692
How to accurately grasp gold trading opportunities?The market keeps falling, but we have no worries about taking profits. 3720 is the key short-term support level. Once it is effectively broken, gold is expected to accelerate its downward trend. For two consecutive days, we publicly suggested to arrange short orders near 3780 and 3760. Now the market has fallen sharply to the 3725 line, and we have achieved steady profits again. For two consecutive days, we accurately arranged short orders at the intraday high and steadily realized profits.
At present, gold is no longer in a unilateral upward trend, and the technical side has entered a repair stage. The operation idea is mainly to follow the trend, and the focus is on grasping the rhythm of bulls and bears. The most frequently asked questions recently are whether a big drop has begun and whether gold has peaked. From a structural point of view, although the daily line has been under pressure continuously, it closed in the negative yesterday and even formed a tombstone K-line pattern on the previous trading day, indicating that the short-term has encountered obvious suppression, but this cannot directly determine that the major trend has peaked. The weekly line is still dominated by bulls, and the short-term repair market has not destroyed the overall upward trend.
In terms of operation strategy, we still insist on shorting on rebound and long on pullback as a supplement. The lower support of the 4-hour chart focuses on the 3715-3700 area, and the upper pressure focuses on the 3760-3770 range. It is not advisable to blindly chase orders at the middle oscillation position. It is recommended to watch more and do less, and wait patiently for the key points to be confirmed before entering the market to seize the high winning rate opportunities.
Gold rebounds but not yet clearly breaking out📊 Market Movement:
Gold touched 3761, then dropped to 3750, but has now rebounded to around 3757. The market is still fluctuating in a narrow range without a clear trend.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Resistance: 3768 – 3772 (key zone to confirm buyers’ strength)
• Support: 3750 – 3745
• Short-term EMA: showing recovery momentum but not strong enough to confirm a bullish reversal
• Candlestick: leaning towards technical rebound, no clear breakout signal yet
📝 Outlook:
Gold is in a mild recovery phase, but it needs to break and hold above 3772 to confirm an uptrend. Failure here could trigger a pullback to 3750 – 3745.
🎯 Trading Strategy:
🔺 BUY XAU/USD : 3750 – 3745
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
🛑 SL: 3742
🔻 SELL XAU/USD : 3768 – 3772
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
🛑 SL: 3776
Gold's rise encountered resistance and launched adeep correctionGold maintains high-level fluctuations at the daily level, but the short-term trend shows weakness. The price on the 4-hour chart has fallen below the previous fluctuation range and is currently obviously constrained by the 3760-3770 pressure zone. The K-line continues to run below the short-term moving average. The overall structure shows a weak and volatile pattern. The recent rebound has approached the previous key pressure area. It is expected that the downward trend will most likely continue after the rebound repair is completed. Although a V-shaped reversal has formed in the smaller cycle, the price has stagnated near the pressure zone. The technical indicators show a top divergence signal, indicating that the short-term momentum is gradually weakening and there is a tendency to turn to adjustment again. The comprehensive technical aspect shows that gold faces downside risks in the short term. It is necessary to focus on the adjustment strength and the performance of the key support level below. The operation suggestion is to short on rallies. Focus on the rebound resistance of 3760-3770 on the top and the support of 3715-3700 on the bottom.
Gold hits 3,717 low – Short-term technical reboundMarket Overview:
Last night, gold dropped to a low of 3.717 USD/oz under strong selling pressure from the US market. Currently, it rebounds slightly to 3.736 USD/oz, indicating emerging bottom-buying interest.
Technical Analysis:
• Support: 3,717 / 3.723 USD
• Resistance: 3.740 / 3.750 USD
• EMA: EMA50 trending down; EMA200 above price, medium-term downtrend persists
• Candlestick pattern: Hammer candle observed at 3,717 low, signaling possible technical rebound
Outlook:
Gold may rebound short-term toward 3.740–3.750 USD if buying pressure holds, but monitor price reaction at 3,717–3.723 USD to confirm reversal or continuation.
Trading Strategy:
🔺 BUY XAU/USD : 3.718 – 3.715
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
🛑 SL: 3.712
🔻 SELL XAU/USD : 3.750 – 3.753
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
🛑 SL: 3.756