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Goldpullback

Gold smashes record highs: $4,500 next if prior record holds?Gold has exploded to new all-time highs this morning, breaking above the October peak of $4,380. But this isn't just a random holiday spike. It's the result of a specific macro mix hitting a thin, pre-Christmas market. Here we analyse why a dovish Fed, persistent central bank buying, and geopolitical risks are fuelling this rally. We then map out the two-sided technical picture: the bullish case for a run to $4,460–$4,500 based on an ascending triangle breakout the bearish risk of a pullback toward $4,320 signalled by a 4-hour RSI divergence Key drivers Macro tailwinds: The market is pricing in a full Fed easing cycle for 2026 after three rate cuts this year, pushing down real yields and weakening the US dollar. This, combined with persistent central bank buying and geopolitical hedging, creates a strong fundamental bid for gold. ​ Low-liquidity breakout : Today's sharp move was amplified by lighter-than-average holiday trading volume. Once buy-stops above the previous high of $4,380 were triggered, there weren't enough sellers to absorb demand. ​ Technical structure : Gold has broken out of what appears to be an ascending triangle. The key support is now the prior high around $4,380. As long as this level holds, the bullish structure remains intact. Upside targets : The measured move from the ascending triangle pattern projects a target near $4,460. A similar fractal pattern analysis also points toward $4,440. The next major psychological and Fibonacci level sits around $4,500. Bearish divergence : A clear bearish divergence on the 4-hour RSI suggests that upside momentum is fading, which could trigger a corrective pullback. If the $4,380 support fails, a mean-reversion move toward the high-activity zone around $4,320 becomes possible. Are you buying the dip toward $4,380 or looking to short the divergence? Share your gold trade plan in the comments and follow for more technical and macro analysis. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSD
by ThinkMarkets
4
Gold suffers biggest crash since 2013: What’s next for metal?Gold just experienced its worst single-day crash since 2013, plunging over 8% from record highs after forming a double top. What’s behind this dramatic move, and what’s next for gold? After a strong rally driven by fiscal and trade uncertainty and delayed US economic data, gold suddenly tumbled to the $4,000s. This sharp drop comes amid technical overextension and ahead of a crucial US CPI report due Friday, with the government shutdown still adding to market uncertainty. Overextended : Gold was heavily overbought on multiple timeframes (4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly), with a double top and weakening RSI signalling a correction was due. Profit-taking ahead of CPI : Many traders secured profits before Friday’s CPI report, with consensus expecting inflation to tick up, potentially impacting Fed rate expectations and the US dollar. Trade developments : De-escalation between the US and China, with Trump and Xi set to meet at APEC, reduced some risk premium that had supported gold. Support and scenarios : Strong support levels remain, with a possible further downside to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (~$3,945), but a deeper drop to $3,735 is seen as unlikely unless catalysts turn more bearish. Volatility is back in the gold market! Will this correction turn into a longer consolidation, or is it just a pause before new highs? Watch the key levels and upcoming CPI data, and remember—trade smart, respect your risk, and cash out when needed! This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ThinkMarkets
2
Support Unproven: Gold Bears Eye Fresh PullbackGold began retreating from around 3872, hitting 3793 before rebounding again. It has now reached a high of around 3855, recovering most of its losses. However, it's not difficult to see that since gold's recent decline reached a rare $80, its upward momentum has been lackluster, even somewhat weak. This suggests that the sharp pullback in gold's short-term performance has dampened bullish sentiment to some extent. Furthermore, it's clear that gold has shown clear signs of profit-taking above 3855. While a collapse is far from imminent, further declines are possible as signs of profit-taking intensify. From a technical perspective, gold experienced a sharp decline in the short term and rebounded near 3793. Technically, the validity of 3793 as a low point needs to be retested and verified. Therefore, a direct upward move in the near term is unlikely, and a retest of the short-term support low is necessary. So, when judging short-term support and resistance, we first need to pay attention to the role of the 3845-3855 resistance area above; below, we first pay attention to the support area of 3810-3800. If gold falls below the support near the low point of 3793, then gold may fall further to the 3780-3770 area. Therefore, in terms of short-term trading, we can still take advantage of the rebound in gold and give priority to shorting gold in the 3840-3850 area, first looking at the target 3820-3810 area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Gold XAUUSD How Long This Correction Will Continue! Read CaptionOANDA:XAUUSD forms a retreat and tests 2577 following a fake breakdown of 2546. After such a severe fall, it is a very reasonable response. The dollar is growing more quickly, and the fundamental context is still negative. China's ambiguous economic figures heightened economic worries. Powell stated that there is no need to lower interest rates right now because the economy is still expanding, the job market is strong, and inflation is still above the 2% target, but this uncertainty regarding future rate reduction by the US Federal Reserve is still weighing on the markets. Now, everyone's eyes are on the crucial retail sales data. Technically, it is important to watch the resistance at 2589 and the 0.5-0.7 fibo. Below these areas, a false breakdown and consolidation could lead to a collapse. Resistance levels: 2578, 2592, 2604. Support levels: 2543, 2532, 2504 Key : 2565 OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is currently indicating that the pullback up might be a little drawn out. Before the news, MM will probably aim for liquidity (above these levels). Bears may become active in response to a false breakout, which would only boost sales. However, the likelihood of a breakdown and decline will rise if there is a bounce from 0.5 fibo and a smooth recovery to 2546.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
Gold 2 day TFIf gold breaks below the uptrend channel, I anticipate a further drop in its value. However, I have identified two specific areas where multiple factors converge, and I will keep an eye on them for potential buying opportunities. There are several factors that can cause the price of gold to rise: Supply and demand: Like any other commodity, the price of gold is affected by its supply and demand in the market. If the demand for gold exceeds its supply, the price of gold can rise. Economic and political instability: Gold is often seen as a safe-haven investment during times of economic and political uncertainty. In times of market volatility, investors may buy gold as a hedge against potential losses. Inflation: As the value of currency decreases due to inflation, investors may turn to gold as a store of value. Gold has historically maintained its value over time and can provide a hedge against inflation. Central bank policy: The policies of central banks, including changes in interest rates and quantitative easing, can affect the price of gold. For example, if central banks lower interest rates, it can lead to a weaker currency and an increased demand for gold. USD exchange rate: Gold is priced in USD, so changes in the exchange rate between the USD and other currencies can also impact the price of gold. If the USD weakens, it can make gold more affordable for investors holding other currencies.
TVC:GOLD
by ChartStrategist
GOLD IS CONSOLIDATED - XAUUSDGOLD is struggling hard to break the support 1752. Based on my previous analysis it was going well on Friday 8th oct it showed rejection form 1780-85. Now there are 2 possibility for you all to open sell order. When price strike to above resistance 1780-85 OR goes below 1750. Still main trend is down so we are not going to place any buy order. Our target is 1723 and blow. Just keep focus. Market will be volatile tomorrow as there a FOMO news. We might see some movement by tomorrow. Like our IDEA Follow Commet down.
TVC:GOLD
by rudravasaikarrr
2
Gold - Expect Near-Term Weakness Gold has had a great run, however i believe that we may very well see a slight easing before continuing higher, firstly let's look at some charts. Gold is below the daily 21 ema - This means that so long as we remain below this level, near-term the bears are in control. Gold has retraced to the weekly 10 ema - This is healthy within a strong bull market, to periodically return to these longer-term moving averages, but also note the highlighted regions when price fell below this moving average. Gold has YET to retrace to the monthly 5 ema - This, coupled with the monthly doji candle from August (signals indecision) leads me to believe that we will experience a drop to test the monthly 5 ema, currently around $1890 USD. Furthermore, the monthly stochastic is signaling a likely cross to the downside, all of this together leads me to believe that a move lower to test the monthly 5 ema, possibly even overshooting slightly lower to around $1800 is entirely on the cards. All this coupled with the sudden profit-taking in the stock market over the Thursday and Friday trading sessions leads me to believe that further weakness could kick next week off, not to mention the grossly overbought conditions within the stock market, from the put/call ratio, to the SKEW, to the spike in the VIX. It is worth mentioning that the cryptocurrency market also had a sharp selloff, PRIOR to the stock market selloff, what this says to me is that money is not merely rotating out of one asset and into another, but rather it is leaving the market as cash. We can also see the DXY strengthening (albeit only slightly, and within a stronger overall downtrend), this is also a major headwind for gold, as i wrote earlier, that a stronger dollar will reflect in a weaker gold price (generally speaking). I may very well be wrong, however i will personally be easing some of my exposure to see how things shake out. I also want to reiterate, i am very bullish on precious metals (hence the physical holdings) and i believe that the stock market will be a major beneficiary of truly awesome levels of inflation, however i am getting a slightly eerie, calm before the storm feeling and will be freeing up some capital to take advantage should that opportunity arise. -TradingEdge
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Long_Game_Trading