Gold - The bullrun top happens now!✂️Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is heading for a major reversal:
🔎Analysis summary:
After the all time high breakout back in 2024, Gold has been rallying about +115% until today. During this entire move, Gold did not create any real correction. Considering that Gold is currently retesting a major resistance trendline, the bullrun top happens now.
📝Levels to watch:
$4,000
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Goldsell
GOLD Technical Analysis: Multi-Layer Structure & Key Scenarios 4H Timeframe Analysis ⏰
Gold has entered a structural corrective phase after a strong bullish trend that formed a Higher High (HH). This correction is visible in momentum, volume, and market structure with a confirmed Lower High (LH) formation. The combination signals a powerful Decision Point that will determine gold's medium-term direction. 🔄
🔶 Market Structure Breakdown
◼️ 1. Main Bullish Wave 🚀
After breaking October resistance, price formed a HH
HH showed buyer strength, but first weakness appeared:
Sharp rejection from top → Declining bullish momentum 📉
◼️ 2. Correction Phase ⬇️
Initial correction formed a Higher Low (HL)
Price failed to break previous high → Valid LH formed
Market entered neutral-to-bearish structure
◼️ 3. Current Status 🎯
Price is trapped between two key zones:
Resistance:4270
Support: 4022
Key Levels:
🔸 Resistance Zone: LH formation area, multiple rejections
Breakout = Correction end + New bullish wave 🟢
🔸 Mid Support: Trend anchor level
Break = First confirmation of bearish structure 🔴
🔸 Major Support:4170
Break = Medium-term correction activation 📉
🔶 Probable Scenarios
🟢 BULLISH SCENARIO (Resistance Break)
Break & close above LH zone
R→S conversion
New bullish wave with volume increase
Targets:4440
🔴 BEARISH SCENARIO (Support Break)
Failure at resistance + Mid support break
Deep correction wave + New LL formation
Targets: 3950
🔶 Market Psychology 🧠
Current price action shows:
Buyer caution ⚠️
Gradual sell orders accumulation at resistance
Limited seller power in corrections
High sensitivity to fundamental news 📰
Typical pre-breakout/breakdown consolidation
📢 Your Thoughts?
Comment below with your analysis! 👇
⚠️ RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading carries high risk. Always educate yourself and use proper risk management. Not financial advice. 📚
Gold further downside next weekGold price had closed below 5 day moving average for the past 3 days, this would be a sign for further downside. This is also the third time the gold price is unable to break above 4250 area.
There should be further attempts to try to break above, in the mean time, momentary retracement should be on the cards next week.
This retracement might be to gather further strength to break to the upside later.
Trading strategy -> continue to buy on dip, control small lot size.
GOLD 1H Analysis – Breakout / Retest Trendline in PlayGOLD 1H Analysis – Breakout / Retest Trendline in Play
Gold is currently testing the upper channel resistance, forming a rising wedge pattern similar to the previous two structures. Each time price formed this pattern, we saw a sharp breakout and a retest, followed by a clear directional move.
Now, price has reached the critical decision area again.
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🔍 Key Insights
📌 1. Rising Wedge Formation
The market has repeated the same structure three times:
Price climbs inside a tight channel
Tests the top of the wedge
Breaks out → retests → strong move
This repetition increases the probability of another structured move.
---
📉 Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability)
If price fails to break above the wedge and rejects at the red arrow:
Expect a move back to the trendline
Break below the trendline will confirm bearish continuation
Targets: 4210 → 4185 → 4160
This aligns with the orange arrows on your chart.
---
📈 Bullish Scenario (Lower Probability but valid)
If price breaks above the wedge cleanly:
Expect a retest
Upside movement possible
Targets: 4280 → 4300
This reflects the yellow upward arrows drawn on your chart.
---
📌 Summary
Gold is at a decision point.
A breakout from this wedge will define the next move.
👉 Watch for:
A clean rejection at resistance for the sell setup
A clean breakout above the wedge for the buy continuation.
Gold price developments at the end of the week of December 51️⃣ Trend Line
Descent trend line (above – dashed line)
Price has been touched and rejected several times → becomes strong dynamic resistance.
The 4,225–4,230 price zone is a key area:
→ Valid breakout = opens upward momentum towards 4,260.
→ Failed breakout = price returns down following the previous trend.
Ascending trend line (below – dashed line)
This is dynamic support that maintains the short-term upward structure.
If price breaks through this trend line, a downtrend will activate.
2️⃣ Support Area – Key Resistance
4,225 – 4,230:
Confluence of the descending trend line + the previous supply zone → a designated area for buyers.
4,260 – 4,265:
Strongest resistance. When price touches this area, a downward reaction is likely.
Support
4,190 – 4,195:
The first area to be tested if the trend line is broken.
4,140 – 4,135 (lower green zone):
Very strong support – the main target if the downtrend is confirmed.
📌 Trading Signals
BUY GOLD: 4,140 – 4,138
Stop Loss: 4,130
Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips
SELL GOLD: 4,260 – 4,262
Stop Loss: 4,270
Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips
Gold - This is the bullrun top!⚰️Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is slowly reversing now:
🔎Analysis summary:
Starting back in the end of 2015, Gold established another major bullish cycle. Ever since the rounding bottom breakout, Gold has been rallying higher and higher. But at this exact moment, Gold retests major resistance and is slowly starting to create a reversal.
📝Levels to watch:
$4,000
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Gold Analysis – Possible Double-Top Before a Deeper Pullback
Gold Outlook – Potential Double-Top and Bearish Correction Ahead
Gold has reached a key resistance zone after a strong bullish leg. Based on current price action and the ascending trendline, two main scenarios stand out:
Scenario 1
Price may revisit the 4350 resistance and, if it fails to break above it, form a potential double-top pattern. This would increase the likelihood of a deeper correction.
Scenario 2
Gold could begin its pullback directly from the current area without printing a new high.
A confirmed break of the ascending trendline would be an early signal of bearish momentum.
In both scenarios, if short-term supports fail, the logical downside target for this correction sits around 3926.
This zone is expected to act as the first meaningful area for buyers to step in.
Are people still blindly chasing the rise in gold prices?
news:
Gold prices remained around $4,200 in early Asian trading on Thursday, as market bets on a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its meeting next week intensified. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets, providing structural support for gold.
Weak US jobs data pushed the dollar lower, providing additional support for gold prices. The ADP report showed that US private sector employment fell by 32,000 in November, far worse than the revised increase of 47,000 in the previous month and also worse than the market expectation of a 5,000 increase. This was in line with our expectations, and gold remains in a downward trend.
U.S. initial jobless claims will be released on Thursday, while the PCE inflation indicator, which is more closely watched by the Federal Reserve, will be released on Friday. If the inflation data is unexpectedly strong, it could boost the dollar, thereby weakening gold prices in the short term.
Technical aspects:
The 1-hour chart shows that the recent pullback in gold prices has widened, causing the 4-hour RSI to revert from overbought levels. Currently, gold prices are stabilizing above the 20-day moving average support level on the 4-hour chart, further reinforcing the bearish bias on the 1-hour chart. A short-term pullback in gold prices may exacerbate short-term volatility; a cautious short-selling strategy is recommended for the day.
Strategy Signals:
Buy at 4209-4215, stop loss at 4227, target at 4190-4170.
ADP data will determine the $4,200 mark.
news:
In the crucial window leading up to the Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting, the US November ADP employment data, to be released today, has become the market focus. Its performance will directly influence the short-term direction of gold prices, with bulls and bears fiercely battling around the $4200/ounce level.
ADP Data: The "Final Piece of the Puzzle" Influencing Fed Rate Cut Expectations
As a leading indicator of non-farm payroll data, this month's ADP data is far more important than ever. Due to the US government shutdown, the official employment reports for October and November will be postponed to December 16th, lagging behind the Fed's December 9-10 interest rate meeting. Therefore, today's ADP data will be a core reference for the Fed's policy decisions.
Technical aspects:
Looking at the 1-hour chart, the key resistance level to watch is 4240-50, while the short-term support level is around 4200, with a significant support level at 4175. Technically, the current consolidation suggests a tendency to short on pullbacks. We should patiently wait for key entry points. Specific trading strategies will be provided in the channel; please pay close attention.
Gold prices are still trading above the 5-10 day moving average, and the downtrend has not yet been broken. After the $4,200 level is lost, gold prices may face further declines.
Strategy Signals:
Buy: 4225-4230 Stop Loss: 4240 Target: 4200-4180
Current Gold Analysis M5 04-12-2025🚀 Option 1: Bullish Breakout Setup
GOLD (XAU/USD) is coiling up! 📈 The price action on the chart is forming a clear ascending structure/bull flag right below a key Resistance Zone at .
I’m watching for a decisive breakout and retest of this level to confirm the next leg up. If buyers step in, we could be targeting and beyond!
Setup: Long on confirmed break above . Risk Note: Always trade with a Stop Loss and manage your risk. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.
#XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #TradingSetup #Bullish #TechnicalAnalysis"
📉 Option 2: Bearish Rejection/Reversal Setup
"Is the Gold rally running out of steam? 📉 XAU/USD is showing signs of exhaustion at the upper Resistance Level around on the chart.
We've seen a clear rejection (bearish engulfing/pin bar) suggesting sellers are stepping in. I’m looking for a move back down to test the major Support Zone near .
Setup: Short on confirmed rejection below . Risk Note: This is a counter-trend move—exercise extreme caution and maintain tight risk management.
#XAUUSD #GoldTrading #Bearish #MarketAnalysis #GoldPrice #ForexSignals"
GOLD SETUP: The Liquidity Grab That Could Change Your Month!There is intresting situation on Gold right now:
1) There is SMT with futures(on futures price went higher than previous high from November 13th
2) Have a lot of liqudiity down below which usually means that this liqudiity will be taken
3) strong uptrend on LTF
taking in consideration these factors and that it will be beginign of the month on Monday i will be looking for manipulation at market opening. If i see trend shift on LTF i will be looking for short position till 4110 area (4h OB) , if this wont happen i simply gonna skiip trading GOLD this week.
When price action is not clean and when its hard to see clear picture better to avoid such trade and just watch.
Like and follow if you like my analysis
Gold price trend ahead of ADP news release on December 31️⃣ Trendline
▪ Rising Trendline (red / upward slope)
Price is moving within a bullish structure, continuously forming Higher Lows.
→ This acts as the main dynamic support guiding the uptrend.
Price is likely to retest this trendline around 4,145 before continuing upward.
▪ Falling Trendline (black / downward slope)
This is the major dynamic resistance, also overlapping with the extended Fibonacci zone.
→ The next potential touchpoint lies near the strong resistance area 4,300–4,340.
2️⃣ Key Support – Resistance Zones
▪ SUPPORT: 4,145 – 4,150
Confluence with EMA + trendline.
This is a high-probability zone where buyers are expected to defend the price.
▪ RESISTANCE: 4,335 – 4,340
Overlaps with the descending trendline.
Matches the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
This is the main target of the current bullish structure.
→ A reaction or correction is expected when price reaches this area.
Trading Plan
BUY GOLD: 4145 – 4148
Stop Loss: 4135
Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips
SELL GOLD: 4260 – 4263
Stop Loss: 4270
Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips
Gold Reversal in Motion: Head & Shoulders Breakdown Hi!
Market Structure
Gold has been moving inside a clean ascending channel, with price respecting both upper and lower boundaries for several days. Earlier in the trend, we saw the first compression phase along the dashed mid-line, which later fueled the strong push toward the channel top.
Liquidity Zone – Hunt or Breakout?
At the channel’s upper boundary, price tapped a key horizontal level. The spike above it looks more like a liquidity hunt than a real breakout—buyers were trapped, and the market quickly rejected from this zone.
Reversal Pattern – Head & Shoulders
After the rejection, a clear Head and Shoulders pattern formed exactly at the top of the channel
The neckline was positioned just above the dashed trendline. Once the neckline broke, momentum shifted sharply bearish, confirming the pattern.
Target & Expected Path
The chart shows the target of the Head and Shoulders, aligned perfectly with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. This creates a strong confluence around the 4,160 area.
The projected move suggests a possible minor pullback or neckline retest before continuing downward.
Overall, the chart signals a short-term trend reversal within a long-term bullish channel, driven by liquidity sweep behavior and a confirmed Head & Shoulders breakdown.
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
The downtrend in gold has become apparent.
news:
December 1st in the US marks the official end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QT) policy (confirmed at the October 29th meeting). This means:
1️⃣ The end of QT = a systemic halt to liquidity injection, shifting the financial market from a "liquidity contraction mode" to a "stability mode."
2️⃣ Marginal easing of US Treasury supply pressure, reduced risk of rising long-term interest rates, and a potential for the yield curve to flatten again.
3️⃣ The rapid decline in bank reserves has ceased, significantly easing liquidity tensions in the overnight financing and repurchase markets.
4️⃣ The "liquidity discount" in risk asset pricing has begun to diminish, which is conducive to the valuation recovery of such assets.
5️⃣ The cessation of QT does not equate to the resumption of QE, but rather a significant turning point signaling the end of the tightening cycle.
6️⃣ The core of market competition will shift from the "intensity of balance sheet reduction" to "when to cut interest rates and whether to restart balance sheet expansion."
7️⃣ The macroeconomic narrative has shifted from "passively deflating bubbles" to "actively stabilizing the market," confirming the policy bottom.
Technical aspects:
Looking at the 1-hour chart,Gold prices consolidated slightly before declining, accelerating their fall after breaking below the previous night's low of 4220. They reached a low near 4180 before rebounding and consolidating. With the price breaking yesterday's low, the downtrend is likely to continue. Short-term resistance is around 4220, while support lies at the 5-day moving average on the daily chart at 4175, which also represents the retracement level of the 4152-4265 upward move.
Strategy Signals:
Buy: 4215-4220 Stop Loss: 4230 Target: 4190-4170
Risk/Reward 2.24 on XAUUSD-GOLD – Is Opportunity Coming?Good Morning Guys
I’ve put together a 4-hour timeframe analysis on XAUUSD – GOLD.
Once the harmonic pattern completes, I’m expectin’ a correction right around the 4215.0 level.
That’s where the pattern should wrap up, and from there price is likely to pull back.
✅ Entry Level: 4215.0
🛑 Stop: 4270.0
🎯 TP1: 4189.0
🎯 TP2: 4149.0
🎯 TP3: 4097.0
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.24
Also, the Supply-Demand zone sits between 4045.0 – 4000.0.
If price drops into that area, I’ll be lookin’ to buy.
Once we hit that zone, I’ll drop another signal for y’all.
Every single like from you guys keeps me motivated to share these analyses.
Big thanks to all my friends who support me with their likes – y’all are the reason I keep postin’.
“Resistance Rejection → Bearish Pullback Toward Support🟡 GOLD (XAU/USD) – Bearish Rejection from Major Resistance 🟥📉
🔍 Key Technical Insights
Price rejected the major resistance zone around 4,245 – 4,255
Rising Support Line has been broken → signals weakening bullish momentum ❌
Current structure favors a pullback toward demand area
Market seeking liquidity below recent swing lows 💰
🎯 Suggested Targets (with stickers)
Target Type Price Area Sticker
TP1 → Support Retest 4,210 – 4,215 🎯
TP2 → Demand Zone 4,195 – 4,205 📉💰
📌 TP1 is your high-probability target
📌 TP2 is for extended move if bearish momentum continues ⬇️
📌 Trade Setup Idea
📍 Sell Entry Zone:
➤ 4,238 – 4,245 (after failed breakout)
❌ Stop-Loss:
➤ Above 4,255
🎯 Take Profit:
➤ TP1: 4,215 🎯
➤ TP2: 4,200 📉💸
🧭 Overall Market Outlook
Factor Bias
Short-term Trend Bearish Pullback 🔻
Liquidity Downside targets in focus 💧
Resistance Reaction Strong rejection 🚫
Gold prices continued their upward trend, approaching $4,300.
news:
Gold prices (XAU/USD) remained in a positive range around $4230 during Monday's Asian trading session. This rebound was primarily driven by widespread market expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates at its December 9-10 meeting.
Weaker-than-expected US economic data, coupled with dovish statements from several officials, further strengthened market bets on monetary easing.
"Against the backdrop of easing geopolitical tensions, gold prices are driven more by interest rate expectations than by their traditional safe-haven attributes."
Technical indicators:
From a daily chart perspective, the current price is consolidating strongly above $4240, exhibiting characteristics of "high-level oscillation within an uptrend."
The moving average system remains in a bullish alignment, with the 20-day moving average providing significant support. The price has repeatedly tested this moving average and stabilized, indicating strong short-term buying resilience.
Regarding momentum indicators, the RSI remains in the mid-to-high range but has not entered extreme zones, suggesting that the trend continues, but upward momentum has slightly slowed. If the price breaks through the upper edge of the recent consolidation range, a new round of upward movement is likely; however, if it falls below the 20-day moving average, it may retest the previous strong support zone and enter a wide-range oscillation pattern.
Overall, the daily chart remains bullish, but the upward pace is shifting from a one-sided advance to a slower climb.
Strategy Signals:
BUY:4215-4220 SL:4205 TP:4265,4280
Gold weekly chart (4 hour) with buy and sell entriesChart Overview: XAU/USD 4-Hour
Current Trend: The market is in a corrective phase (bearish pullback) following an aggressive parabolic rally to a high of ~4381.
Momentum: Bearish. The White Moving Average (likely a shorter period, e.g., 20 or 50) has crossed below the Green Moving Average (likely a longer period, e.g., 200), signaling downward momentum.
🔴 Potential Sell Entries (Red Zones)
Major Resistance / Supply Zone: 4245.00 - 4252.00
Technicals: This red shaded box represents a Bearish Order Block (Supply Zone). Price previously broke down from this level with impulsive red candles, leaving trapped buyers. When price retraces to this area, these buyers often sell to break even, and institutional sellers reload shorts.
Secondary Sell signal (Text on chart): The label "Sell 4209" suggests a breakout trade. If price loses the 4209 local support, it confirms a continuation of the lower-low structure.
Suggested Take Profits (TP):
TP 1: 4165 (First Green Zone)
TP 2: 4136 (Second Green Zone)
TP 3: 4105 (0.618 Fibonacci Golden Pocket)
🟢 Potential Buy Entries (Green Zones)
Zone 1: 4160.00 - 4165.00
Technicals: This is the first area of structural support. It aligns with previous consolidation tops before the massive breakout. It acts as a "flip zone" (resistance turned support).
Zone 2: 4136.00 - 4140.00 (Stronger Support)
Technicals: This is a stronger Demand Zone. It sits just above the significant Fibonacci levels. If the correction deepens, this is the area where institutional algorithms often step in to defend the larger uptrend.
Text Signal "Buy 4218": The label "Buy 4218" on your chart suggests a momentum reversal trade—essentially waiting for the price to reclaim the immediate resistance before going long.
Suggested Take Profits (TP):
TP 1: 4210 (Local deviation)
TP 2: 4245 (Testing the bottom of the Red Supply Zone)
TP 3: 4280 (continuation of trend)
Summary Strategy
Short Term: The bias is Bearish as long as price is below the Moving Average crossover. Look for rejections at the 4245 red box to Sell.
Medium Term: Watch for bullish reversal patterns (doji, hammer candles) inside the green 4136 - 4165 zones to catch the next leg up of the macro bull run.






















