Gold: Bounce or Breakdown? Support Says BounceAs I expected in the previous idea , Gold touched the First Target($4,049) but failed to break the support zone($4,053 – $4,025).
In terms of Elliott Wave theory, given that Gold failed to break the support zone($4,053 – $4,025), we can expect bullish waves, at least in the short term.
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Minutes ago, the U.S. labor market indicators were released — including NFP, Average Hourly Earnings, and the Unemployment Rate.
Here are the actual numbers:
NFP: 119K (vs. 53K expected) — much stronger
Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.2% (vs. 0.3% expected) — weaker
Unemployment Rate: 4.4% (vs. 4.3% expected) — higher
Gold’s Fundamental Reaction:
Today’s data is mixed in a very interesting way:
Stronger NFP = USD bullish pressure
A print of 119K signals a stronger labor market rebound, which normally puts downside pressure on gold.
But weaker wage growth (0.2%) = lower inflation pressure
This reduces the urgency for further Fed tightening, which is gold-positive.
Higher unemployment (4.4%) = economic cooling signal
This supports the idea that the economy is slowing beneath the surface — also positive for gold.
Net Result:
Gold is likely to experience initial volatility, but the combination of weaker wage inflation + higher unemployment offsets the strong NFP.
This means gold could find support after the first drop, especially if markets focus on softer inflation expectations and rising unemployment.
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I expect Gold to rise to at least $4,137 based on the above explanation.
It is also possible that Gold will form an ascending channel. One of the upside targets for gold could be near the upper line of the ascending channel(possible).
First Target: $4,137
Second Target: $4,174
Stop Loss(SL): $4,017
Points may shift as the market evolves
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📌 Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
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