Bulls vs. Bears:Who Will Control the Next Move?Gold barely held the support level of 4050-4040. In addition, under the influence of CPI data, the market bet that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates twice more this year. Gold rebounded from 4045 to around 4135, which was a shot in the arm for the bulls!
Judging from the short-term rise and the market's strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut, the bulls are eager to try again. Of course we must respect the market price behavior. We can clearly see from the current candlestick chart that in the short term, gold has formed a triple bottom structure near 4001, 4011 and 4043, which effectively offset the suppressive effect of the triple top structure formed in the 4378-4382 area. Therefore, the bulls now have the conditions to compete with the bears.
However, according to the market atmosphere, bullish sentiment has just recovered, so the current bears still have a certain advantage, and this advantage will increase the intensity of fluctuations in the gold market, resulting in a wide range of sweeps in the short term. Judging from the current structural pattern, gold will still be under pressure in the 4140-4160 area in the short term. Without more major positive news, it may be difficult for gold to easily break through the resistance in this area in the short term; and as gold rises after building a triple bottom support, the short-term support will also move up to the 4080-4060 area.
Therefore, we need to pay close attention to short-term support and resistance areas:
1. If gold continues to rise in the short term and reaches the 4140-4160 resistance area, we will prioritize shorting gold.
2. If gold first retreats to the 4080-4060 support area, we can try to buy gold in small quantities around this support area.
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10.24 US market technical analysis!!!Gold hourly level: It stabilized and rebounded at 4105 overnight, and fell again in Asian session today, only rebounded from a double bottom at 4105 to 4144, and the price re-stood on the 66-day key moving average, because the Japanese and US sessions suppressed this moving average and fluctuated downward all the way; then after the positive line closed and broke through it, it was thought that if it held 4105, it could continue an upward trend. As a result, it consolidated for several hours and broke below 4100 in the afternoon, triggering a wave of decline, and hit the trend line of 4044 at the lowest, and got a certain rebound effect. After breaking through 4100, we will see the bullish trend, and the key support lies at 4150-4160.
Bulls May Defend the 4110–4100 Zone! A Counterattack Is BrewingAs expected, gold reached the 4120-4110 area during the decline, and the bears are relatively in an advantageous position. However, we can also clearly see that since gold started the 4000 defense battle, although gold was once weak, it still adhered to its bottom line during the defense process. Therefore, even if the bears currently have the upper hand, it is difficult for them to cross the line!
From the short-term, we can clearly see that gold has tested the 4110-4100 area three times, and has shown good rebound performance after touching this area. As it has failed to break through the 4110-4100 area many times during the retracement process, this area has become a key stronghold and lifeline for the bulls' defense. The bulls may launch a series of counterattacks with this area as the core.
Therefore, in the short term, we might consider using the 4110-4100 area as support to try to go long on gold, initially aiming for a rebound target area of 4125-4135.
The Bears Are Warming Up!Gold Faces Renewed Downside Pressure!Gold maintained its rebound momentum during the day, and currently has rebounded to around 4155. However, we can clearly see from the rebound process that the rebound of gold is relatively lacking in strength, and in the local structure, the decline of gold is more eye-catching!
Judging from the current structure, gold is currently in a falling wedge structure, and even if it continues to rebound during the day, it still remains below the first rebound high of 4161, and even failed to break through 4155 during the rebound. This is enough to prove that the current bullish force is still insufficient. Overall, gold is under pressure from the double top structure and the double neckline around 4185. Until gold reclaims 4185, it will remain weak overall.
Primary support lies below the lower edge of the falling wedge pattern, around 4128. However, this area is relatively weak and could be broken at any time. Short-term support lies below, in the 4120-4110 area, followed by 4080-4070. If gold continues to maintain its downward pressure from the falling wedge pattern, it is likely to test these two support areas.
So in the short term, we can appropriately consider starting to short gold in the 4160-4170 area. First, aim for the retracement target area of 4130-4120.
10.24 Gold US Trading Strategy, Bulls Bottom Out and Rebound as Looking at the 4-hour market trend, the current short-term resistance level at 4142-50 is being monitored on the upside, while the short-term support level at 4065-4070 is being monitored on the downside. Gold is under pressure and difficult to break through. For trading, the primary strategy is to go long on pullbacks. In the middle, be cautious and follow orders carefully, patiently waiting for key entry points. I will provide detailed trading strategies during the trading session, so please stay tuned.
Gold Trading Strategy:
1. If gold rebounds and doesn't break through the 4145-52 level, go short. Set a stop-loss at 4160, and target the 4015-4000 level. Hold if it breaks through!
2. If gold retraces to the 4085-93 level, go long. Set a stop-loss at 4073, and target the 4130-35 level. Hold if it breaks through!
Gold’s Rally May Be a Setup! Smart Money Is Selling the Highs!At present, the short-term direction of gold is not obvious. Although it is moving upward, the rebound is not very strong. So far, it has not broken through the first high point area of 4161 built by the rebound after the decline, so the overall performance is still weak. Under the current market conditions, even if gold rises due to the self-rescue behavior of some bulls, the upward space is expected to be limited. It is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the 4080-4160 area to repair market sentiment.
During the repair process, I suggest that it is best not to blindly chase the rise in gold just because of the rise in gold. After all, it is necessary to prevent some bulls from spontaneously self-rescue and then push up shipments. Therefore, the resistance area that must be paid attention to first is the 4145-4155 area, followed by the 4175-4185 area. It is estimated that according to the current market conditions, gold may find it difficult to reach the resistance of the 4175-4185 area; and the support area below is the 4090-4080 area after gold rebounds. The second thing we need to pay attention to is the 4040-4030 area.
Therefore, for short-term trading, we can start shorting gold after the rebound of gold by relying on the resistance of the 4145-4155 area, first aiming at the short-term retracement target of the 4100-4090 area.
Don’t Be Fooled by the Bounce! It’s Just Fuel for the Bears!After two significant rebounds near 4004 and 4010, gold's decline has slowed. Predictably, after a short-term drop of as much as $478, the market has seen significant divergence.
Maybe in the eyes of some people, gold has formed an obvious double bottom structure with the low point constructed near 4004 and the secondary low point constructed near 4010. With this technical pattern as the bottoming support, many funds are eager to try and have entered the gold market one after another, providing a good opportunity for gold to rebound!
In my opinion, given the current market conditions, bulls haven't yet formed a strong force to support a sustained gold rebound. Therefore, the short-term rebound high hasn't effectively broken through the 4110-4115 area, and the overall trend remains in a new downtrend. Therefore, even with a certain degree of rebound, it hasn't escaped the current market weakness, and bears remain dominant in the short term.
Secondly, the current bull-bear dividing line for gold is around 4150. As long as gold remains below 4150, any rebounds in the gold market can only be viewed as technical corrections, and all rebounds will only bring new short-selling opportunities.
Third, when gold rebounded at 4010, the lower candlesticks were too full to form a lower shadow, indicating that bullish momentum is weak in the short term. Therefore, gold may continue to decline in the short term, at least with the need to retest the 4030-4020 area.
Therefore, I believe that under the current market conditions, there is limited room for gold to continue to rebound, and it may even stop rebounding at any time. Shorting gold is still the current first choice, and the short-term rebound provides us with a good opportunity to enter the market and short sell! Currently, it is possible to consider shorting gold in the 4095-4105 area; first aim for the retracement target area of 4030-4020.
This Is the Best Short Setup You’ll See! Don’t Miss Out!Gold began to rebound after touching the area near 4015 during the retracement, and has now rebounded to around 4080. From the current perspective, gold still has room for rebound, but it is expected that the rebound space will not be too large. After all, after the gold market experienced a sharp drop, the bulls have not yet recovered and the market sentiment is in a strong bearish atmosphere.
What everyone is most concerned about at the moment should be where gold can rebound to, or where is the relatively suitable short entry area? Adjusting the candle chart period to 30 minutes, we can clearly see that gold began to fall from the intraday high of around 4161, and then continued to fall with a high of 4090. Therefore, we can start shorting gold with the continued decline point area as the resistance area; secondly, the short-term resistance is around 4105. The short-term support below is in the 4015-4005 area. Once gold falls below this area during the retracement, it may continue to fall to the 3990-3980 area.
Therefore, for short-term trading, we can patiently wait for gold to rebound to the 4090-4105 area before trying to short gold again.
Gold goes on a roller coaster ride. Continue to short below 4100Looking back at the price of gold since the beginning of the year, it has risen by over 50%, with an increase of over 25% in just two months. Those who bought in early on have made a killing, and at the first sign of trouble, they naturally want to sell to lock in profits. This concentrated sell-off can easily trigger panic. Leveraged margin calls exacerbate volatility: The recent surge has attracted many investors to leverage their positions. If prices fall rapidly, these leveraged positions will be forced to close, amplifying the decline like dominoes.
Returning to the one-hour gold chart, US gold will continue to fluctuate between 4100 and 4020. The current trend is volatile and weak, so adopt a high-sell strategy! Go short on a dip to 4080, with an eye on the 4000 area below!
Specific Strategy
Sell gold below 4100, stop loss at 4110, target 4000.
10.22 Gold rebounds and continues to be shortGold's 4-hour moving average has formed a death cross, signaling a downward bearish trend. Gold still has downward momentum. Despite today's rebound in the US market, it continued to decline rapidly. This suggests the bullish rally is weakening. Gold rebounded to around 4085 before turning downward. While gold remains under pressure at 4085, it's still a good time to continue shorting.
Gold has formed a short-term bearish double top, and the bullish rebound has failed to re-stabilize the neckline of the double top. Gold remains a bearish market, and rebounds continue to offer opportunities for short sellers.
10.22 Gold continues to correctAfter forming a double top early Tuesday morning, gold has been experiencing resistance during Tuesday's Asian session, signaling a potential Waterloo. As of Wednesday's Asian session, gold hit a low of 4004 before rebounding above 4100, a bullish consolidation. Gold is currently trading in a range-bound environment. We continue to monitor the 4147-50 resistance level, which also marked the resistance level at midnight Tuesday. Gold prices retreated after hitting this resistance level several times last night. During the day, we will monitor the upward resistance level. If gold fails to break through, we will maintain a volatile trading strategy. We will prioritize shorting within this resistance level.
From the 4-hour chart, we are currently focusing on the 4147-4150 resistance level for the upside, while the -4085-4100 support level is expected to remain. If bulls fail to break through, gold will likely continue its range-bound correction. Trading strategies should prioritize trading within this range. In the intermediate range, we should be cautious about buying orders and wait patiently for key entry points. I'll provide detailed trading strategies during the trading session, so please stay tuned.
Gold Trading Strategy:
1. Short gold with a light position at 4147-4150, stop loss at 4156, target at 4085-4100. Hold if it breaks through!
2. Go long gold at 4085-4095, stop loss at 4078, target at 4145-50. Hold if it breaks through!
Gold Touches 4000!!!Bears, It’s Time to Reload!Gold fell again around 2 a.m., hitting a low of around 4004. It took only one day for gold to fall by nearly $400. The bears currently have an absolute advantage, and market sentiment has become tense and fragile. As long as there is any sign of trouble, gold may be sold in large quantities again!
Currently, gold has rebounded after touching around 4004 and is currently trading in the 4130-4140 area. As for whether the bulls will recover and take back control again, I think it will be difficult in the short term. Although gold has recovered more than $100 of decline, the market is bearish and the gold rebound may not be sustainable. This wave of rebound rhythm is more like a self-rescue behavior of some bulls, forcing the gold price to rise is conducive to the safe exit of some trapped funds! Therefore, given current market conditions, I am not optimistic about the sustainability of this rebound.
From the perspective of morphological structure, the gold daily candlestick chart constructs a large black candlestick to form an engulfing pattern at a high level, and according to the symmetrical structure of the candlestick chart and the suppression effect of the neckline, the current effective resistance area is located in the 4160-4185 area. If gold touches this resistance area for the first time during the rebound, we can still try to short gold, first aiming at the short-term target area of 4110-4100 area.
10.21 Gold Intraday Short-Term Trading GuideGold currently has a clear double top on its 4-hour chart, with Friday's low of 4186 acting as the neckline. If it falls below 4186, a double top will form, and the downward trend will accelerate. In the short term, it is likely to move further towards the 4100-4080 area. If it does not break through 4186, the market will rebound again.
Gold Ready to Launch from 4330-The Road to 4400 Begins!After touching around 4381, gold fell again and has now fallen below the 4340 area. Will gold break through multiple integer levels again and retest the support strength around 4180?
In fact, I believe that a slight pullback after gold hit its previous high near 4381 would be more favorable for a push towards 4400. Yesterday's rally from 4220 to 4381 showed no clear signs of a pullback. Therefore, after a single-day gain of $171, and considering the need for a technical pullback, I believe a short-term pullback in gold doesn't mean a return to 4180. Instead, it will stimulate market liquidity after a healthy short-term pullback, helping gold build upward momentum and potentially break through 4400.
Therefore, we shouldn't be afraid of gold's pullbacks, but rather focus on identifying entry points for long positions. From the current perspective, the W-shaped double bottom structural support below still plays a key supporting role, so if gold holds above 4330-4320 during the retracement process, gold still has the potential to set new highs again!
Therefore, for short-term trading, it is obvious that during the gold pullback period, you can appropriately consider going long on gold with the 4330-4320 area as support!
10.21 Gold correction continues to riseTechnical Analysis
The 4-hour MACD formed a death cross with shrinking volume, converging and flattening, indicating current volatility. The 4-hour candlestick chart also closed at a high level with a small Yin-Yang candlestick. The question now remains whether the candlestick chart will rise directly or retrace to the middle line near 4292. A direct rise would not fall below the morning's low of 4332.
The hourly chart began to fluctuate and decline after trading sideways this morning. Currently, attention is focused on support near 4332. The hourly MACD formed a golden cross with shrinking volume, and the STO indicator corrected downward, indicating a potential decline in the hourly chart. Current support on the hourly chart lies around 4332-4327 and 4302.
In summary:
The daily chart suggests today's decline is not over, and will likely reach at least 4300. The question now remains whether the 4-hour chart will fluctuate at a high level or rise directly. A direct rise would likely lead to a continued rise to around 4420, while consolidation at a high level would likely lead to a decline. Therefore, a short position around 4372-4377 is feasible. As for long orders, they need to be placed near 4267-4275, and the first long order can be placed near 4296-97.
Strategy:
Short near 4368-70, defend 4382, target 4335-4300-4270
Long near 4296-97 below, defend 4290, target 4330
Long near 4268-72 intraday, defend 4262, target 4300-4330-4370, etc.
Breaking above 4382 will directly lead to the 4410-4420-4480 line, so if it breaks above 4382 and then falls back to 4370, go long.
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Market Ignites!Gold Set to Open the 4400 Chapter!Supported by multiple structures including the W-shaped double bottom structure and the ascending triangle, gold continues to rise. The current highest has reached the area near 4364. The bullish trend is running well. It can be seen that even if the retracement space increases, the short position still does not have continuity. After gold retreated and stimulated liquidity, a large amount of off-market wait-and-see funds entered the market to bet on bulls, and gold strongly regained most of its lost ground.
It is actually very difficult to predict the upper high point of the current market trend. The resistance area that can be seen in the short term is around 4365, followed by the area around 4380. If gold touches the above resistance area, there may still be signs of a slight pullback. Therefore, the support areas we need to pay attention to are first the area around 4330, and secondly the area around 4310. If gold can still hold above the above support areas during the retracement, it is likely that gold will hit the previous high again, or even break through the previous high and enter the 4400 era!
Therefore, the short-term trading strategy is clear:
1. If gold continues to rebound to the 4365-4375 area, we can consider shorting gold and capitalizing on a pullback.
2. If gold retreats first, we can consider going long in the 4330-4320 area.
Gold Bulls Roar Again! 4300 Target in Sight!Overall, today, gold is currently fluctuating in the 4270-4220 range, but the movement signs show that gold is more inclined to a bullish trend; after touching the area near 4220 twice during the day, it rebounded quickly, and the area near 4220 became the absolute low point area of the day, and formed a double-needle bottoming pattern in the short term, indicating that gold may continue to maintain an upward trend.
During the operation of gold, the low point is constantly moving up and showing multiple long lower shadows in the candle chart, while the upper pressure is in the horizontal resistance area near 4270-4280, and in the short term, there is a clear embryonic form of an ascending triangle structure. As the center of gravity of gold moves up, the short-term support has moved up to the 4245-4235 area. If gold holds this area during the pullback, the ascending triangle structure will be established in the short term, and gold is expected to test the resistance of 4270-4280 again. Once it breaks through this resistance area strongly during the rebound, gold is expected to continue to 4310-4330 area.
So for short-term trading, we can wait for gold to retrace and then try to go long on gold with the support of 4245-4235 area, first aiming at the short-term target area: 4280-4290
10.17 Gold Short-Term Operation Technical Guide!!!Recently, as the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has become more and more intense, and there is an expectation of an increase, the loose atmosphere, coupled with the expectation of inflation and the impact of the economic and trade turmoil, gold has once again become the darling of the market. Every day, it witnesses new highs in history, and the trend has become more and more crazy. There is no top in sight, and it is also impossible to say when a dive will come. Today, the Asian session hit a high near 4378 and then fell back quickly to touch around 4278, a range of US$100, and then quickly rebounded to above 4370 again. Subsequently, the European session jumped back and forth. Today, Friday, we need to be wary of the possible profit-taking trend in the market. In terms of operation, the rebound depends on shorting at 4360/70, and pay attention to the gains and losses of 4300. If it falls below 4300, we will see adjustments. Otherwise, we will continue to see bullish fluctuations if it falls back.
Trap Alert: Gold’s Pullback Could Fuel the Next Bounce!Gold continues to retreat in the short term, currently testing the strength of support at 4300. From the current technical perspective, although gold has repeatedly come under pressure at the 4370-4380 area, forming a multiple top structure in the short term, limiting upside potential in the short term, as gold continues to decline, the current resistance area has shifted down to 4235-4245.
Although gold is retreating under pressure, the overall bullish trend remains strong until it breaks below this key area. The current support structure after the top-bottom conversion lies in the 4290-4280 area. If gold cannot fall below this area during the pullback, then gold still has the potential to rebound to the 4230-4240 area. Therefore, even if we see gold prices continue to retreat, we should not rush to short gold during this pullback.
Instead, consider short-term trading:
We can continue to try to go long on gold with the 4290-4280 area as support. Of course, for short-term trading, the rebound target can be aimed at the 4320-4330 area!
Relentless Rally:Gold Won’t Rest Until 4500!?The 4300 series chapter has begun as expected, with gold continuing its strong upward trend, currently reaching a high near 4381. However, it is clear that after encountering resistance in the 4370-4380 area three times, gold has shown clear signs of a pullback. This could lead to the formation of a triple top structure in the short term, suppressing gold prices in the short term.
However, relatively speaking, as gold continues to rise, testing the 4280 area during the pullback before rebounding again, technical support has shifted to the 4320-4310 area. Furthermore, the validation of the pullback and the current strong upward trend will strengthen the support in this area to a certain extent, thus supporting gold's rebound.
Therefore, for the current short-term trade:
1. First, try to continue shorting gold with resistance at 4370-4380, targeting a pullback to the 4350-4340 area.
2. Once gold retraces to the 4320-4310 area, consider going long on gold, targeting the 4340-4350 area.
Farewell to 4200 — The 4300 Era Begins!Gold has currently reached a high near 4295, just shy of 4300. Given the current upward momentum, it's easy for gold to continue its upward trend and test 4300. Because gold continues to hit new highs and break through the trend channel, there's currently no clear resistance zone above it, making it difficult to enter a short position in gold. Furthermore, a break above 4300 could significantly ignite bullish market sentiment and increase expectations for continued gold gains, pushing the price higher.
Therefore, we're primarily focusing on relatively significant support areas below. As gold's center of gravity continues to shift upward, its lows are gradually rising. Short-term support is concentrated in the 4265-4255 area, while further strong support lies in the 4240-4230 area. These two areas will be the long entry areas that we will focus on next.
Therefore, in short-term trading:
1. If gold first retreats to the 4265-4255 area, we can consider starting a long position in gold.
2. If gold continues to retreat to the 4240-4230 area, we can consider increasing our long position in gold.
3. If you still want to try to profit from the pullback, you can consider shorting gold in the 4298-4308 area. You must set a protection level (SL: 4300-4310) for counter-trend trading.
If you’re following this rally, don’t just watch — prepare your next move.
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The Golden Triangle is coming to an end, beware of profit takingGold Hourly Chart: The overnight close was relatively high, and today's Asian session continued its upward trend. The European session saw a sharp drop below the upper channel line at 4242. This trend resistance line is the same one that held pressure at 4218 in yesterday's European session. The market then closed with a large, plump, bearish candlestick pattern at 2:00 PM, reaching the target of 4210. Since it was a large bearish candlestick pattern, not a long lower shadow candlestick pattern, a rebound confirming the 5-day moving average at 4230-34 is sufficient, so a further downward push is warranted.
The European session saw consecutive positive days, testing the bottom and rallying to a new all-time high. However, caution is advised in the US session. On the one hand, the 4250 level is a resistance point in the channel, and on the other hand, it is nearing the end of an ascending converging triangle, leaving little room for further movement and a potential reversal. Therefore, support remains at the middle line at 4230. Only a significant break below this level would trigger a potential for a significant short-term correction. Resistance is at 4265. Be cautious about blindly chasing rallies below this level. Consider the gains and losses at both levels and wait for signals.
Mission Complete: 4245-4250:Time to Flip Short on Gold!Gold has already reached a high of around 4246, and its upward momentum has relatively weakened. To be honest, under the current market conditions, I do not advocate aggressively chasing gold above 4240, because as gold continues to rise, more and more callback risks are accumulated! We can also see that each surge in gold is followed by a clear pullback. So even if we choose to short gold, we can still get a good profit margin in the short term!
Although gold is on an overall upward trend, I still divide the rising channel into three areas; the first area: 4250-4220; the second area: 4220-4190, and the third area: 4190-4160. As gold rises, the technical traction of the lower area on the gold price becomes stronger. Therefore, according to the first area division, in the short term, gold has the need to at least retreat to the area near 4220. Even after falling below the area near 4220, it may continue the downward trend to the 4220-4190 area.
Therefore, in terms of short-term trading, I would prioritize trying to short gold in the 4245-4255 area, first targeting the short-term retracement area: 4230-4220 as the target.
If you’re following my trading strategy, don’t just watch — prepare your next move.
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