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Time to Fade the Rally—Gold Shorts Aim for 3835–3825Driven by the market's risk aversion sentiment, gold continues to maintain its strong upward position and has now reached our long target area: 3850-3860 as expected. It is obvious that gold is still in a bull trend, but as gold prices have risen sharply, more and more high-level risks have accumulated. Therefore, it is actually very difficult to directly participate in gold long trading now. But according to the current trend, it is not difficult to find that after each surge in gold, there is a trend of falling back and testing support. Therefore, even if gold is in an upward trend, there is still a need to retrace support locally, and the retracement range is relatively not small, and can reach a retracement space of $20-30, so there is enough profit space for short-term trading. In addition, in the short term, gold is currently facing the influence of the trend channel resistance area of 3855-3865. The current upward momentum has converged and the willingness to rise has tended to weaken. Under the influence of the resistance in this area, gold may have a need to retreat in the short term. So in the short term, we might first consider shorting gold with the 3855-3865 area as resistance, and first look at the target area of 3835-3825 area. Of course, to gamble on short-term retracement profits in an upward trend, you need to set up protection!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Gold Ascending Triangle Breakout - Targets $3,800+This chart is not only for trading, it’s also for educational purposes and shows a long-term trade setup. You can see how the triangle pattern works here. On the monthly time frame chart shows a clear bullish structure: a rising lower-trendline (series of higher lows), a flat horizontal resistance across the highs (an ascending-triangle shape) and a breakout candle that closes above that horizontal resistance. That is a bullish monthly breakout => the path of least resistance is upward while the breakout holds. (Market context: gold was hitting fresh lifetime highs around 22 Sep 2025 as Fed easing hopes and safe-haven flows supported the move. Price structure & pattern (what the chart is telling you) Pattern: the formation is an ascending triangle — horizontal (flat) highs vs. rising lows. This pattern is bullish because buyers progressively step in at higher prices against a persistent overhead supply line. The measured-move technique for triangles (height of the pattern added to the breakout) is a standard way to estimate a conservative target. Trend: monthly trend is bullish — higher highs and higher lows inside a rising channel drawn above and below price. The breakout out of the triangle also cleared the upper channel midline, increasing odds of a run to the upper channel boundary. Confirmation to watch: a monthly close back below the breakout level and the rising trendline would weaken the bullish case. Practical Measured Target Using the measured-move method gives a conservative first target: Example estimate from the chart: take the triangle height ≈ (resistance ~3,450) − (swing low ~3,100) = 350. (3,450 − 3,100 = 350). Add the height (350) to the breakout level (~3,450) → 3,450 + 350 = 3,800 as the first measured target; extension toward the top of the longer-term channel puts price into the ~3,900–4,000 neighborhood if momentum continues. (This is the standard target method — actual numbers depend on the exact points you measure on the chart). Key levels Immediate resistance / near-term targets: 3,700–3,900 (measured target and channel top). Immediate support (first line): the breakout zone / prior flat resistance (now support) — roughly 3,350–3,450 on the chart. Secondary support: rising lower-trendline / channel mid — roughly 3,100–3,250. Strong structural support well below: 2,700–2,800 (major prior lows and horizontal red lines on the chart). Use these as rules-of-thumb zones: if price reclaims and holds the breakout zone, bulls remain in control; if price closes monthly back below the rising trendline, the bullish pattern has failed. Macro drivers & why the breakout matters now Interest-rate expectations and real yields are the dominant macro drivers for gold: falling real yields (and expectations of Fed rate cuts) make gold more attractive, and the 2025 rally has been powered by that dynamic. Central-bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty and demand flows are additional tailwinds. U.S. dollar: gold usually trades inverse to the DXY. Around the breakout date the dollar was not significantly stronger (DXY in the high-90s), which removes a major headwind for gold’s advance. If the dollar weakens further, that amplifies an upside path for gold; if the dollar rallies strongly, it increases the chance of a corrective pullback. Scenarios (how to think about probabilities) Bull case (highest probability while breakout holds): price follows measured-move to the ~3,800 region and then challenges the upper channel toward ~3,900–4,000 as momentum and lower real yields continue. Base case (consolidation): a breakout retest — price dips back to the breakout zone (~3,350–3,450), finds buyers, then resumes uptrend (this is healthy and common). Bear case (pattern failure): monthly close back under the rising trendline (and below ~3,100) — that would open a deeper correction toward 2,900–2,700 and reduce the bullish edge. Trade plan and risk management (long-term investors vs traders) Long-term investor (multi-year): if you believe in the macro thesis (lower real yields, central bank demand), holding through volatility is reasonable; consider layering in on pullbacks to the breakout zone (~3,350–3,450) with wider stops and position sizing for multi-year exposure. Tactical trader (swing/position): the conservative trade is to wait for a breakout retest to the former resistance (buy on confirmed support hold). Entry zone: ~3,350–3,450 with a stop below the rising trendline (e.g., below ~3,100 in the chart) and targets at measured-move (~3,800) and then the channel top (~3,900–4,000). If you prefer momentum entries, a clean monthly close above the breakout with continued follow-through on the next monthly candle is a valid trigger, but tighten stops. Always size positions so a failure (close below the rising trendline) does not blow you out — place stop levels outside normal monthly noise. Extra checks (what to watch next) Watch U.S. inflation prints, Fed commentary and the 10-year real yields — those will be the largest macro switches that could change the story. Watch DXY moves: a durable dollar rally would increase the odds of a deeper retracement. On the chart: volume/flow confirmation on the breakout (higher volume on breakout is healthier); monthly-MA alignment (longer MAs acting as support) — these help confirm sustainability. One-line conclusion Monthly chart shows a classically bullish ascending-triangle breakout with a conservative measured target near ~3,800 and upside extension possible toward ~3,900–4,000 if macro drivers (falling real yields, Fed easing expectations, weak dollar) remain supportive; a monthly close back below the rising trendline (~3,100 area on the chart) would invalidate the bullish scenario. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by SibiSh
3820 Breakout：Chase It or Fade It?After our long position hit the TP, we just profited from our short position near 3830 by hitting the TP at 3815. This is a very good short-term trade. Judging from the current structural form of gold, the low point of gold retracement is gradually shifting upward, and the short-term support below is moving up to the 3810-3800 area; if gold rebounds again with the help of this support area and stands above 3825, under the resonance of technical level and positive news, gold may hit the 3840-3850 area in the short term, or even reach the extreme area near 3860. The current market is bullish and it is difficult to see a reversal in the short term. At best, there will only be a short-term pullback. Therefore, in short-term trading, we mainly follow the trend trading; only after gold touches the key resistance area can we try to short gold. It should be noted that due to the limited retracement space, a reasonable TP must be set. 1. Consider going long on gold in the 3810-3800 range, initially targeting the 3835-3845 range. 2. When gold first reaches the 3840-3850 range, consider going short on gold, initially targeting the 3825-3815 range.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Bulls Charge Ahead—Gold’s Path to 3835–3845Brothers, it seems that we were too conservative in setting the TP. Now gold has broken through 3810, far exceeding the TP: 3785 set in our last long transaction. Because a large amount of safe-haven buying funds poured into the gold market, it continued to set new historical highs, stimulating gold to break through 3800 and continue its rise to above 3810, fully highlighting the strong bullish sentiment in the market. At present, with the support of fundamental factors that are bullish for gold, it is difficult for the gold market to reverse in a short period of time. At best, it is just a short-term adjustment. In addition, we can look for wave patterns from the candlestick chart. From the previous trend, it is not difficult to see that after a short-term consolidation, gold will pull up and retrace to form a secondary low point, and then it will wave again to $75-80 to reach a new high. Then according to this rule, after the volatile rise, gold formed a secondary low near 3760 on Friday. If we look up to the fluctuation range of $75-80, gold is likely to continue to rise to the 3835-3845 area. So, for current short-term trading. First of all, we still consider going long on gold. 1. If gold first retreats to the 3800-3790 area, we can prioritize going long on gold. 2. If gold continues its upward trend and first reaches the 3835-3845 area, we can consider going short on gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Correction Not Enough，The Real Drop Is Yet to ComeGold began to retreat from 3778 yesterday, breaking through the key support levels of 3755, 3740 and even 3730, and hitting a low of around 3717, a drop of $60. In view of the recent continuous upward trend and the fact that it is near the 3800 mark, this is undoubtedly another heavy blow to the bulls. From the perspective of morphological structure, gold may form a new downward trend channel with the help of high points near 3790 and 3778. If gold cannot successfully break through the 3755-3765 area during the rebound, it means that the gold downward trend channel may be successfully constructed, which will further stimulate gold to continue to decline. As for the rising channel, gold is currently facing resistance in the 3760-3770 area. Before breaking through this area, gold bulls may still be weak. Then due to the technical resonance of the two channel resistances, it may be difficult for gold to easily break through the 3760-3770 resistance area at present. So for short-term trading, we can start shorting gold at 3755-3765. If gold continues to rise within a limited space, we can consider adding positions.The short-term support area below is first focused on the 3740-3730 area, followed by the 3715-3705 area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Quick Gold Long: Playing the Rebound GameGold has now fallen below the 3755 area, disconfirming the ascending triangle formation in the short term. The price has continued to fall below the downward channel support around 37740, signaling a short-term shift from strength to weakness. However, since gold hasn't shown clear signs of a peak, and the decline hasn't been a cliff-like drop, but rather a volatile downward pattern, the current technical pullback remains within normal limits and hasn't reached the level of a reversal. Therefore, gold still has the potential to rebound after this pullback. Gold has retreated to the 3730-3725 area. While the decline hasn't completely stopped, the decline has certainly slowed. Furthermore, this area offers some technical support. Gold may rebound in the short term after fluctuating within this area, potentially reaching the 3740-3750 range. Thus, for short-term trading, we can initially consider going long on gold in the 3730-3725 area, with a short-term rebound target of 3740-3750.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Key Battlefield: Bulls vs Bears at 3700–3800Gold fluctuated in the 3780-3750 range during the day. Although gold is still in a bullish structure overall, the short-term direction is actually not very clear due to signs of gradually weakening bullish momentum. However, from the perspective of morphological structure, gold shows signs of forming an ascending triangle in the short term. Once the ascending triangle is successfully formed, gold will still have the potential to rise and touch 3800, or even continue to rise to the 3820-3830 area with the support of this structure. After all, gold is only slightly weak, but there is no clear signal of reaching the top at present. The premise for maintaining the ascending triangle structure is that gold cannot fall below the 3755 area; so if gold cannot effectively fall below the 3755 area next, it is expected that gold will rebound again. However, it should be noted that once gold falls below the area near 3755, the ascending triangle structure will not hold; it also proves that the current retracement space is insufficient and gold still needs to continue to retrace, then gold may continue the retracement trend to the 3740-3730 area. Therefore, in the current short-term trading, before gold falls below the 3755 area, we can still try to go long on gold in the 3765-3755 area; once gold falls below the area near 3755, we need to consider changing direction from long to short!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Rejection Before 3800: A Final Window for ShortsDriven by market sentiment, gold has now reached a high of around 3792, just one step away from the 3800 mark. Judging from the current structure, gold is undoubtedly in a unilateral bull trend and has completely replicated the rising pattern of the previous wave, with almost no decent retracement during the rise. Now gold continues to break through historical highs and enter unknown areas. In addition, due to the promotion of market sentiment, the current technical level has been distorted, so there is no good reference target at present. It can only be calculated based on space and cycle; the foreseeable upper limit area in the short term is in the 3820-3830 area; but because there are obvious signs of stagnant growth before reaching the 3800 mark, gold may be the first to experience a pullback. Because gold is in an extreme rising mode, most funds may not have the opportunity to participate in long transactions, so in order to increase liquidity, gold also has a need for a retracement; however, because the current market enthusiasm remains unabated, it can be expected that the retracement space for gold is limited. The foreseeable retracement area is in the 3760-3750 area, and the second is in the area near 3730. In addition, look at it according to the cycle. It is not difficult to see from the financial calendar that China, a major gold holder, will usher in the National Day holiday. Before the holiday, some funds may take profits, which will also lead to a decline in gold prices. After the holiday, gold may end its retracement and return to the upward trend. So if you hold a short position, then when gold falls back to the 3760-3750 area, or even around 3730, it will be an opportunity for gold bears to get out of trouble. Once gold retreats to this area and escapes the predicament, it could be a good opportunity to re-enter the long position!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Gold Lures Bulls In — But Correction LoomsAfter the start of the Asian session, gold continued its upward momentum to around 3692. However, it is obvious that after touching this horizontal area, the upward momentum of gold has converged, and there are obvious signs of stagflation. Moreover, judging from the trading volume, the current trading volume is not enough to support the continued rise of gold. So I think gold may usher in a good wave of pullback at any time after the rise. From a technical perspective, gold has formed a "double-needle bottoming" structure in combination with the areas near 3628 and 3632. However, since the correction near 3707, gold has shown a clear downward trend. Therefore, according to time and space, under normal circumstances, gold is still in an oscillating structure and may find it difficult to break through the resistance of the 3675-3680 area in a short period of time. But the fact is that on Friday, stimulated by the news, gold not only broke the volatile pattern that should have appeared, but also broke through the resistance of 3675-3680 in one fell swoop; when the time and space are not yet in place, the intention of gold's sharp rise may be to eliminate the short chips that have been recently arranged before gold really starts to pull back, and there is also suspicion of luring the bulls who follow the trend. Based on space calculations, it is expected that the maximum rise in gold this time will not exceed the 3710-3715 area, and it may even start to pull back again before reaching this area. Therefore, we should not be excessively bullish on gold at this point. On the contrary, we can still short gold in batches above 3680, and the retracement target will first target the 3665-3655-3645 area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Gold Not Bottomed Yet：Selling Rallies Remains Key After a deep V-shaped rebound to near 3673, gold fell sharply again, hitting a new low near 3627. Clearly, after the rate cut, most investors took profits, driving gold prices down. As gold's center of gravity shifts downward, the current short-term resistance area has shifted to 3660-3670. From the current structural perspective, gold is shifting from strength to weakness, with bears gradually recovering and taking control. Following the sharp rally, there is also a need for a technical pullback. While gold has rebounded slightly, there are no clear bottoming signals. I believe gold has not yet reached a low and is likely to continue to test the 3625-3615 area. If this area is broken, it will open up further downside potential, potentially extending the downward trend to around 3580.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Fed Catalyst: The Bear AwakensGold rebounded after touching 3660 and is currently fluctuating in a narrow range around 3685. Gold is currently trading relatively cautiously, apparently waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to indicate its short-term direction. How to formulate a trading plan for the Federal Reserve interest rate decision market? In fact, in the short term, I think there will not be much room for gold to continue to rise, and the short-term peak may be in the 3705-3715 area; in addition, regarding the expectation of interest rate cuts, I think the Federal Reserve will adopt a step-by-step approach to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, and as for Powell’s attitude, I think it may rely more on the feedback from US employment data and inflation data to decide whether to continue to cut interest rates within the year. The attitude may not be obviously dovish, so I think there is limited room for short-term increases. Since I think the short-term peak of gold is in the 3705-3715 area, and the short-term resistance area is around 3690. Therefore, I will definitely ambush and short gold before the news is announced. Of course, the transaction needs to be set up in combination with the risk resistance ability of my account. At present, I tend to divide the upper space into two areas, namely 3685-3695 and 3705-3715. I will mainly short gold in batches around these two areas. Once gold falls as expected, I think it will first test the intraday low around 3660. Once it falls below this area, I think gold is likely to continue to test the area around 3635-3625. As for whether gold can take advantage of this opportunity to test the area around 3600. I believe I will overcome my greed and will not take risks to gamble for gains beyond my cognition. I will need to make a secondary judgment based on market fluctuations at that time.In any case, I would favor a short gold setup, so let’s hope for a bearish recovery!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Rate Decision Looms: Short Sellers Poised to StrikeGold continued to decline and is currently supported around 3660 and showing signs of rebound. I don’t hold any orders at the moment because I am currently preparing for the Federal Reserve interest rate decision news market! In fact, I have made part of the plan yesterday and today. Until now, I still tend to believe that the gold market will rise and then fall, but we must grasp the trading rhythm and entry price in the transaction. In fact, before the Fed's interest rate announcement, gold retreated to around 3660. After this significant retreat, we can lower our expectations for a gold rally on news. Based on the current structure, the upper limit for gold bulls lies in the 3710-3720 area, and it's possible that the 3703 area has become the current high. As gold retreats to around 3660, bullish momentum has weakened, and short-term resistance has shifted to the 3680-3690 area. Therefore, I might consider initiating a short position in gold in this area. If gold falls below the 3660-3650 range due to market news, it could continue its decline to the 3635-3625 range. Since we currently hold no positions, we have the initiative in trading. As long as we allocate lots appropriately and strictly control risk, it's difficult not to make a profit! So, let's wish you good luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Gold on the eve of interest rate cut: opportunity or trap?Gold Technical Analysis: Further analyzing gold's trend from a technical perspective, since its decline from the 3675 high, the daily chart has failed to show a clear unilateral direction. Instead, it has exhibited a pattern of alternating negative and positive fluctuations with narrowing amplitudes. Furthermore, the K-line chart continues to trade above the unilateral moving average. This pattern clearly points to a period of consolidation within a bullish trend, rather than a trend reversal. This week's daily chart should focus on two key support levels: the 3600 area represents a short-term watershed between strength and weakness. If broken, the market could shift from strong fluctuations to weak corrections. The 3500 area represents a medium-term bull-bear reversal line. A breach of this level could trigger a fundamental trend reversal. Therefore, 3600 should be the primary defensive line. The 4-hour chart shows more volatile gold: the Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, and the moving averages are highly converging. This indicates a complete lack of momentum needed for a unilateral rise or fall. For the time being, the 3615-3660 range is the preferred range. Based on cyclical patterns, the probability of a breakout of the Bollinger Bands on Monday and Tuesday is extremely low before the bands open. Therefore, high-certainty trading can be conducted on these two trading days around 3615 (lower support) - 3660 (upper resistance), without excessive expectations for a breakout outside the range. Based on real-time trends, gold has completed a short-term correction since the opening. Based on the logic of oscillation, long positions can be established within the day based on support near the lower edge of the range: enter near 3625-3620 (aligned with the lower edge of the 4-hour range), targeting upward fluctuations. Focus on the 3650-3660 area (where the upper edge of the 4-hour range overlaps with key resistance on the daily chart). If the price rebounds to the 3660-3655 range and finds resistance, a small position can be used to test short positions, targeting a pullback to the 3635-3630 area, forming a closed-loop buy-low-sell-high strategy within the range. Note that after the adjustment, the current price is in the middle of the range. Direct entry is not recommended for now. Wait until the price approaches the -3625-3620 support level or the 3655-3660 resistance level before placing orders based on K-line stabilization/pressure signals to improve trading accuracy. Overall, the recommended short-term trading strategy for gold today is to primarily buy on dips, supplemented by higher rebounds. Focus on the 3655-3665 resistance level on the upside, and the 3625-3615 support level on the downside.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldenTrack_Daniel
Bearish Pressure Mounts: Will 3600 Hold or Collapse?In the short term, gold has not been able to stand above 3655 during multiple rebounds, and even closed below 3650 at the close of last Friday. Although it is far from the level of collapse, there are obvious signs of profit-taking in some chips. As the center of gravity of gold slowly shifts, the short-term resistance area will gradually move down to the 3635-3645 area. If gold cannot break through this area during repeated fluctuations, the market's downward momentum will be further strengthened! It should be noted that although the center of gravity of gold is gradually shifting downward, the overall bullish structure is still maintained; and against the backdrop of interest rate cut expectations, gold's retracement space should be limited before the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision. The first thing we need to pay attention to is the support of the recent low point of 3615-3605. Gold is likely to rebound again after testing the support of this area, and take this opportunity to try to intensify short-term volatility! However, once gold falls below the support of this area, it may continue to the 3590-3580 area. Therefore, for short-term trading, since gold is still fluctuating in the support and resistance areas, it can be treated as regional fluctuations for the time being; but as the center of gravity of gold gradually moves downward and 3675 is expected to become a temporary high point, we can maintain the strategy of shorting at high levels as the main strategy, supplemented by the idea of going long at low levels. 1. Consider shorting gold against the resistance zone of 3635-3645, with the primary retracement target at 3620-3610. 2. If gold fails to break below the 3615-3605 area during a pullback, we could consider going long on gold, with the primary rebound target at 3630-3640.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
How to seize the certain opportunity of gold?Gold prices are currently consolidating within a yellow parallel channel on the hourly chart, forming a rising flag pattern. We anticipate an eventual breakout and the start of a unilateral rally. The key short-term move lies in the middle band. If the price holds support at the middle band and 3630, a volatile upward trend is likely. A break above the upper band at 3665 could accelerate the upward trend. If the price loses control of the middle band and falls below 3630, the market will continue to fluctuate within the channel, potentially testing the lower band and support near the 10-day moving average early next week, offering a bullish opportunity at low levels. The 3635-3630 support level should be closely monitored. If a bottoming-out rebound signal emerges, consider buying on dips. If the price effectively breaks below 3630, wait patiently for a pullback to the lower band next Monday before entering a long position. The primary resistance area above is 3665. Only a break above this level would confirm the formation of a rising flag pattern and trigger a unilateral rally. Caution is advised throughout trading, awaiting clarity on the direction of key levels.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldenTrack_Daniel
Quiet Storm：Bulls vs Bears in Waiting！Under the influence of CPI and initial jobless claims data, gold rose directly to the area around 3644. The short-term rise seems exaggerated, but it did not stand firmly above 3650, and even failed to reach the intraday high of 3649. The release of bullish momentum was relatively convergent; it can be clearly seen from the short-term candlestick chart that gold showed long upper shadows many times in the short term, and the trajectory and structure began to shift downward, and tested support downward many times, which also proved that the short-selling force was gradually recovering after being suppressed. However, gold rebounded after touching the 3620-3610 support area several times during the retracement. Although the bullish momentum has declined in the short term, the bullish structure has not been completely destroyed, so the overall structure is still controlled by the bulls, and the bullish force still has enough strength to support gold. Overall, as the bulls become more cautious and the bears gradually recover, gold is expected to maintain high-level fluctuations in the short term, and the fluctuation range is likely to remain in the 3655-3615 area. Therefore, for short-term trading, we can strictly stick to the trading points and execute high-selling and low-buying transactions within the area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Gold trend analysis continues to rise after consolidationGold trend: Today, gold focuses on the impact of CPI data, which may impact the temporary technical view. Today, the Asian and European sessions maintain a low-long bullish trend, with support at 3620-3610 and short-term focus on 3645-3655. The US data has little impact, so it depends on the range. If the data has a large impact, focus on 3600 below and 3680-3690 above. Gold has risen unilaterally in two transactions and fluctuated for one trading day this week. The current high of gold is 3675, and the decline is only around 3620. Therefore, it is obvious that gold is rising slowly under the bullish trend, and even if it fluctuates, it will not fall much. Then, to determine the direction, we must look at the upward space under the direction. We still don’t guess the top, but under the influence of data, we still have to discuss whether there will be a change in direction or a shift in strength in the near future. From a technical point of view, the daily line is still above the support of the 5-day moving average. If the 5-day moving average is not broken, there is no possibility of weakening. Although the 4-hour Bollinger Bands have closed, the middle track has not broken, and it is difficult to have a major adjustment. Therefore, the current market is still in a strong position. It is not clear whether gold has peaked or has a larger adjustment space. Therefore, if you want to trade, you still have to go long on the decline. So, today's market can be viewed in two steps. The European session is expected to fluctuate upward. Operate at key points and go long in the 3620-3610 support area below. Look at the 3645-3655 area above. If the US data has a greater impact, pay attention to the gains and losses of the 3600 key point below. It is still a good time to go long if it does not break.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldenTrack_Daniel
Battle Lines Drawn — Which Comes First, 3700 or 3600?Gold started to fall from around 3675, but failed to effectively fall below 3620 many times during the retracement, so the current retracement cannot be regarded as a market reversal. If the gold market has really peaked, I think the minimum requirement is to effectively fall below 3620, but it is obvious that this condition has not been met yet. Under the current conditions, it can only be regarded as a pullback correction. So at this stage of trading, we cannot be overly bearish on gold. Currently, gold bulls and bears are competing with each other for control, and the price will remain in a wide range of fluctuations in the short term. However, since gold rebounded from 3620, the bullish structure has not been destroyed. The short-term support below is in the 3635-3625 area, and further strong support is in the 3615-3605 area. If gold fails to break below the 3635-3625 area, it will favor bulls and could serve as a springboard for further gains. Once gold continues its upward trend and breaks through the 3665 area, it could potentially reach the 3680-3690 area. Therefore, in short-term trading, since gold remains bullish, we can continue to buy gold within the 3635-3625 support area, with the primary target being the 3660-3670 area.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by PriceSniper_Steffen
2
Gold’s Power Play: Bubble or Break?After gold touched around 3659 during the day, it retreated to our primary target area as expected: 3640-3630 area. In this short transaction, we actually made a profit of 200pips, which is a relatively good trade. There is no doubt that gold is still in a unilateral upward trend and may continue to around 3670 in the short term, but at the current stage, I would rather wait and see on the sidelines than rush to chase the rise in gold, because I really don’t want to be hanging on a tree and swinging. What is unstoppable is that I will still try to short gold by touching the top in the high area along the current trend line. Judging from the recent fluctuations, since I don’t have the courage to chase the rise of gold, in order to participate in market transactions, I will try to short gold based on the principle of touching the high point of the trend line. It is not too difficult to earn a profit margin of 100-200 pips in short trading. According to the current trend line constructed, the current upward extension space is around 3670, while the intraday high is around 3660. Therefore, in short-term trading, we can still continue to try to short gold by using the short-term high point area of 3660-3670 as resistance. The primary short-term target is still the 3640-3630 area. Once gold falls below this area, the target area will be moved to the 3610-3600 area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Cyclic Patterns Point to 600-Pip Downside in GoldUnfortunately, gold failed to reach the expected 3620 target area during the pullback. It only touched around 3628 in the early morning hours before rebounding again. During this period, because I saw that gold could not fall below 3628, and even could not fall below 3630 at one point, I promptly closed all short positions near 3630. Although the two transactions suffered losses due to the slightly lower entry price, because we added short positions near 3636 and 3646, the overall profit was still $10K. Gold has now rebounded again and continued its upward trend to around 3657, continuing its upward trend. However, aside from opportunities to enter the long position in the 3630-3628 area, there are virtually no other good long entry opportunities. Judging from the current trend, gold still has the potential to continue to rise to around 3665, but since I missed the opportunity to enter the long position at 3630-3628, I will never choose to chase the rise of gold now. Although the current uptrend is strong, even if you short gold, there are always opportunities to exit safely and profit during the day. Therefore, I still plan to try to short gold in the 3655-3665 area. Of course, keep my tips from yesterday in mind when shorting. When you first try shorting gold today, try to use a small lot size. When adding positions, you can appropriately increase the number of trading lots to increase the average price and increase profit margins. From a shorting perspective, it is relatively safer! At present, I will pay close attention to the short-term support area of 3640-3630, followed by the area of 3610-3600. Don’t subjectively think that gold will not pull back to the 3610-3600 area, because in the previous band, after gold experienced three 200pips fluctuation retracements, the fourth retracement reached 660pips; and now gold has experienced three 200pips fluctuation retracements again. If it follows the cycle, gold may usher in another retracement of about 600pips, that is, reaching the 3610-3600 area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Breaking Free: How Bears Can Win Back in GoldAfter touching the trend line resistance area of 3640-3650, gold fell back as expected, showing a high "doji" in the hourly candle chart and signs of stagflation. It is expected to become a market turning point in the short term. The gold market may usher in a good correction in the short term due to this technical turning point. However, we need to note that as long as gold remains above 3580, the current situation is still a strong bullish pattern, so we must pay attention to the extent of the retracement. As gold continues to rise, the current short-term support is at 3620-3610, so I think it is necessary for gold to retrace its support in this area. Once gold is supported in this area, it may rebound again and retest the high area of 3640-3650. If gold falls below the short-term support area of 3620-3610, then gold will further retrace its steps to 3590-3580, which is the lifeline of bulls and the dividing line between bulls and bears. If gold falls below the 3590-3580 area during the backtest, the current gold bull advantage will no longer exist, and the bears will likely regain control of the situation. As most long funds take profits and the market experiences panic selling, gold will completely turn into a bearish trend and fall further. At present, I still hold short position in gold, and first aim at the short target area: 3620-3610 area. Once gold falls below this area, the target area will be postponed to 3600-3590 area. I am currently holding my short position and have already realized some profits. I very much hope that gold will fall back to the target area as expected!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Turning the Tables: Bears’ Guide to Profit in GoldDriven by the dual influence of interest rate cut expectations and the job market, gold prices continue to rise and reach new highs. This is entirely a game played by big money at this stage. Buying sentiment in the gold market is currently so high that most of the time, there's no opportunity to even enter a long position. Therefore, after considering the possible phenomenon of "buying expectations and selling facts", while controlling risks, I carefully tried to short gold. Although I suffered losses frequently, I also made a good profit overall because I successfully captured the volatility. Currently, gold continues to rise and has reached a high of around 3637. In fact, according to its wave pattern, gold may experience a pullback at any time. This is why I insist on shorting gold today. The 1st wave: Gold rose from around 3405 to around 3508, a 3.1% increase with a fluctuation of $105. The 2nd wave: Gold rose from around 3470 to around 3578, a 3.16% increase with a fluctuation of $108. The current wave: Gold rose from around 3512 to its target of around 3637, a 3.5% increase with a fluctuation of $124. According to the trend of price fluctuations, gold has reached and, to a certain extent, exceeded the previous two waves, so a pullback is possible at any time. Furthermore, given that intraday fluctuations have been between $30 and $50 in recent days, and the intraday fluctuation of gold from around 3580 to around 3637 reached $57, a short-term pullback is highly likely. However, because the bullish momentum of gold is strong, I will continue to try to short gold before a clear peak signal appears, but I may appropriately lower my expectations for gold's pullback, that is, appropriately lower my expectations for profit margins. My current short position entry prices are: 3612, 3621 and 3636. Basically, I add positions every time the fluctuation is 100-150pips. I currently hope that gold can retreat to the area around 3610-3600.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
2
Critical Zone 3610–3620:Shorts Get Ready！After retreating to around 3579, gold rebounded again and has now reached a high of around 3614. Fortunately, the gold retracement gave us the opportunity to safely exit our previous short positions, and we accurately seized this pullback opportunity to close all our previous short positions at a break-even point. As I said, closing my short position does not mean that I am not optimistic about the gold pullback, but in the process of executing swing trading, we need to constantly adjust to make our short entry price more favorable to us. Therefore, closing the short position entered at a relatively low price previously gives us the flexibility to enter the short position again at a higher price. Gold was quickly pulled up to around 3614 in the short term. There was almost no headwind in the short term. Driven by the dual expectations of interest rate cuts and risk aversion demand, the bullish momentum was strong. However, in the short term, we are currently facing the 3610-3620 trend line resistance area, so I still do not advocate continuing to chase more gold; on the contrary, no matter what, I will continue to try to execute swing trading to short gold in the 3610-3615 area. Although the bulls have risen strongly, it does not actually provide a good position to enter the market to go long on gold. Since we cannot participate in long transactions, we can only try to short gold in waves during constant adjustments. On the premise of controlling trading risks, as long as we are not afraid of short-term floating losses, once gold begins to collapse, we will be the first traders to reap the benefits of the short position. Therefore, when gold is facing the trend line resistance area of 3610-3620, I first considered and executed a short trade at 3610-3615 as planned, hoping that the gold market will have a good retracement as some unsteady funds show signs of profit-taking!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen