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EURNZD November 2025 fundamental analysis Euro (EUR): Stability Through Policy Consistency Monetary Policy Stance The European Central Bank kept its key interest rates unchanged at its September meeting, with the deposit rate remaining at 2.00%. This marks the second consecutive hold following the June cut, and ECB President Christine Lagarde made clear the central bank is "in a good place" and "comfortable" with current policy settings. Critically, the ECB provided no forward guidance on future moves, and market pricing assigns less than 50% probability to any further cuts through 2026. Economic Backdrop Eurozone inflation remains close to the ECB's 2% target, with headline inflation at 2.1% and core inflation at 2.3% as of August 2025. The ECB's updated projections show inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027—slightly below the 2% medium-term target. Growth forecasts have been revised higher to 1.2% for 2025 (from 0.9% in June), though the 2026 projection was trimmed slightly to 1.0%. Lagarde characterized the inflation risks as "more balanced" compared to June, and notably stated that "the disinflationary phase is over". This hawkish tone suggests the ECB has completed its rate-cutting cycle and will maintain restrictive policy for an extended period. November Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Euro is positioned to gain against currencies whose central banks continue easing, particularly the US Dollar, British Pound, and commodity currencies. The October 30 ECB decision confirmed the hold, reinforcing the euro's positive momentum. EUR/USD forecasts for year-end range from 1.15 to 1.20, with the consensus around 1.16-1.17. The euro's relative strength is underpinned by narrowing rate differentials with the Fed and stabilizing eurozone growth dynamics. New Zealand Dollar (NZD): Aggressive Easing Undermines Currency Reserve Bank of New Zealand Actions The Reserve Bank of New Zealand shocked markets on October 7 with an aggressive 50 basis point rate cut to 2.50%, the lowest level since July 2022. This represented a departure from the 25-50 basis point split that markets had priced, with the RBNZ citing the need to "restore confidence in an economic recovery that has lost momentum". Since August 2024, the central bank has slashed rates by a total of 300 basis points. Markets now fully price in another 25 basis point cut at the November 26 meeting, with expectations for rates to decline to 2.0% by 2026. BNZ's Markets Outlook suggests the terminal OCR for this cycle may be 2.50%, though downside risks remain if the economy continues to disappoint. Economic Weakness New Zealand's economy contracted 0.9% in the second quarter, though the RBNZ's nowcast suggests a 0.7% rebound in Q3. However, this reported contraction may overstate economic weakness when considering the positive impact of terms of trade, as evidenced by real gross national disposable income showing 0.9% quarterly expansion and 2.2% annual growth. Nonetheless, the recovery remains subdued, and the trade-weighted index has declined to its lowest level since the April market volatility, sitting below the RBNZ's August projections. November Outlook: Very Bearish The New Zealand Dollar faces the most challenging outlook among major currencies. NZD/USD fell to $0.575 following the October RBNZ cut, hitting its lowest level since April. The currency recovered modestly to around 0.5780 by late October, but analysts warn of downside risks with key support at 0.5750 and potentially 0.56 below that. Against the Australian Dollar, NZD/AUD dropped to a three-year low of 0.8758, with further weakness expected given the diverging monetary policy paths. The aggressive RBNZ easing, weak economic fundamentals, and deteriorating terms of trade create a perfect storm for kiwi weakness in November. Verdict NZD is under immense pressure that is most likely not going to alleviate in the coming weeks. A very calm EUR on the other side of things thus has a clear advantage going into November. EUR/NZD is therefore a BUY .

EURJPY November 2025 fundamental analysis Euro (EUR): Stability Through Policy Consistency Monetary Policy Stance The European Central Bank kept its key interest rates unchanged at its September meeting, with the deposit rate remaining at 2.00%. This marks the second consecutive hold following the June cut, and ECB President Christine Lagarde made clear the central bank is "in a good place" and "comfortable" with current policy settings. Critically, the ECB provided no forward guidance on future moves, and market pricing assigns less than 50% probability to any further cuts through 2026. Economic Backdrop Eurozone inflation remains close to the ECB's 2% target, with headline inflation at 2.1% and core inflation at 2.3% as of August 2025. The ECB's updated projections show inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027—slightly below the 2% medium-term target. Growth forecasts have been revised higher to 1.2% for 2025 (from 0.9% in June), though the 2026 projection was trimmed slightly to 1.0%. Lagarde characterized the inflation risks as "more balanced" compared to June, and notably stated that "the disinflationary phase is over". This hawkish tone suggests the ECB has completed its rate-cutting cycle and will maintain restrictive policy for an extended period. November Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Euro is positioned to gain against currencies whose central banks continue easing, particularly the US Dollar, British Pound, and commodity currencies. The October 30 ECB decision confirmed the hold, reinforcing the euro's positive momentum. EUR/USD forecasts for year-end range from 1.15 to 1.20, with the consensus around 1.16-1.17. The euro's relative strength is underpinned by narrowing rate differentials with the Fed and stabilizing eurozone growth dynamics. Japanese Yen (JPY): Political Dovishness Delays Normalization Bank of Japan: Divided Board, Delayed Tightening The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark short-term rate unchanged at 0.5% at its October meeting, as widely expected, but the decision revealed significant internal division. The vote split 7-2, with board members Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata advocating for a hike to 0.75%, repeating their stance from the September meeting. Takata argued that "now is the appropriate time to raise interest rates," noting that inflation has remained above the bank's target for three and a half years, while Tamura called for moving toward neutral rates. Despite these hawkish voices, Governor Kazuo Ueda maintained a cautious approach, emphasizing that the BoJ would continue with policy normalization "once its economic projections are met" but warning that global trade policies could slow growth and hurt corporate profits. The central bank reiterated its inflation outlook, projecting core CPI at 2.7% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while raising 2025 growth forecasts slightly to 0.7%. Political Constraints: The Takaichi Factor The election of Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister in mid-October significantly altered the trajectory of BoJ policy expectations. Takaichi, known as a fiscal dove who favors expansionary fiscal measures and loose monetary policy, has complicated the path toward further tightening. Following her election, the yen depreciated more than 2% against the USD, and market expectations for an October rate hike evaporated. The new government's support for accommodative policy creates a political constraint on the BoJ's normalization efforts, even as some policymakers argue for immediate rate hikes. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged the BoJ to accelerate rate hikes to prevent excessive yen depreciation, adding external pressure to the central bank's considerations. Markets now assign only a 47% chance of a December rate hike, with consensus building around a delayed move to early 2026. November Outlook: Persistent Weakness Despite Normalization Promise The Japanese Yen carries a weak fundamental outlook for November, reflected in its trading near 154 per USD—nine-month lows and close to the 37-week low of 153.28. The currency has weakened more than 4% in October alone, making it one of the worst G10 performers. Despite some hawkish board members and the BoJ's stated intention to continue normalization, the dovish political environment and cautious central bank approach leave the yen vulnerable. The 3.25% interest rate differential with the USD remains a key driver supporting USD/JPY carry trades, though this spread is expected to compress toward 2.5% as the Fed continues cutting while the BoJ only gradually raises rates. While this compression could eventually support the yen, the timeline remains uncertain—potentially extending into 2026 rather than materializing in November. Technical analysis suggests immediate support near 151.73 (21-day average) with the next level around 150.11 (50-day average), but resistance looms at 154.80 and potentially 155 if the BoJ remains dovish. For November, the yen is expected to remain under pressure against most major currencies, while showing marginal strength only versus the aggressively easing NZD. Verdict Despite its potential fundamental strength the JPY remains one of the weakest amongst the major currencies thanks mostly to continued dovish policy. EUR on the other hand is in a very comfortable position and has currently nothing to fear about JPY. Thus EUR/JPY is a clear BUY .

EURGBP November 2025 fundamental analysis Euro (EUR): Stability Through Policy Consistency Monetary Policy Stance The European Central Bank kept its key interest rates unchanged at its September meeting, with the deposit rate remaining at 2.00%. This marks the second consecutive hold following the June cut, and ECB President Christine Lagarde made clear the central bank is "in a good place" and "comfortable" with current policy settings. Critically, the ECB provided no forward guidance on future moves, and market pricing assigns less than 50% probability to any further cuts through 2026. Economic Backdrop Eurozone inflation remains close to the ECB's 2% target, with headline inflation at 2.1% and core inflation at 2.3% as of August 2025. The ECB's updated projections show inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027—slightly below the 2% medium-term target. Growth forecasts have been revised higher to 1.2% for 2025 (from 0.9% in June), though the 2026 projection was trimmed slightly to 1.0%. Lagarde characterized the inflation risks as "more balanced" compared to June, and notably stated that "the disinflationary phase is over". This hawkish tone suggests the ECB has completed its rate-cutting cycle and will maintain restrictive policy for an extended period. November Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Euro is positioned to gain against currencies whose central banks continue easing, particularly the US Dollar, British Pound, and commodity currencies. The October 30 ECB decision confirmed the hold, reinforcing the euro's positive momentum. EUR/USD forecasts for year-end range from 1.15 to 1.20, with the consensus around 1.16-1.17. The euro's relative strength is underpinned by narrowing rate differentials with the Fed and stabilizing eurozone growth dynamics. British Pound (GBP): Stagflation Amid Rate Cuts and Fiscal Concerns Monetary Policy Trajectory The Bank of England faces mounting pressure to deliver another rate cut in November, with markets pricing in approximately 75% probability of a 25 basis point reduction. This follows September's inflation reading of 3.8% year-on-year (below the 4.0% consensus) and a surprise uptick in unemployment to 4.5%. Current projections suggest interest rates will decline to around 3.75% by the close of 2025, with two additional reductions anticipated in 2026, eventually bringing rates to approximately 3.25% over the medium term. Economic Challenges The UK confronts what economists describe as "the most stagflationary economy in the developed world"—a brutal combination of high inflation, weak growth, and rising unemployment. The upcoming Autumn Budget on November 26 represents a critical inflection point, with Finance Minister Rachel Reeves under pressure to balance fiscal responsibility against growth imperatives. Services inflation remains elevated at 4.7%, while core CPI sits at 3.5%, both above the BoE's comfort zone. The labor market is softening, which could prompt the BoE to ease despite persistent inflation concerns. However, some MPC members have expressed caution about reducing rates too rapidly, creating policy uncertainty. November Outlook: Bearish The pound's trajectory is decidedly negative for November. The expected BoE rate cut, combined with fiscal tightening signals from the Autumn Budget, creates a challenging environment. GBP/USD forecasts suggest range-bound trading between 1.32-1.38, with downside risks predominating. Against the euro, the pound has already weakened to 0.8765, approaching key support levels. Analysts at RBC Brewin Dolphin note that much of the pound's recent upward movement is actually "more to do with underlying dollar weakness than faith in sterling itself". Verdict EUR remains very comfortably at historically high levels while GBP finds itself in unchecked decline. This is unlikely to change in November which makes EUR/GBP a clear BUY .

EURCHF November 2025 fundamental analysis Euro (EUR): Stability Through Policy Consistency Monetary Policy Stance The European Central Bank kept its key interest rates unchanged at its September meeting, with the deposit rate remaining at 2.00%. This marks the second consecutive hold following the June cut, and ECB President Christine Lagarde made clear the central bank is "in a good place" and "comfortable" with current policy settings. Critically, the ECB provided no forward guidance on future moves, and market pricing assigns less than 50% probability to any further cuts through 2026. Economic Backdrop Eurozone inflation remains close to the ECB's 2% target, with headline inflation at 2.1% and core inflation at 2.3% as of August 2025. The ECB's updated projections show inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027—slightly below the 2% medium-term target. Growth forecasts have been revised higher to 1.2% for 2025 (from 0.9% in June), though the 2026 projection was trimmed slightly to 1.0%. Lagarde characterized the inflation risks as "more balanced" compared to June, and notably stated that "the disinflationary phase is over". This hawkish tone suggests the ECB has completed its rate-cutting cycle and will maintain restrictive policy for an extended period. November Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Euro is positioned to gain against currencies whose central banks continue easing, particularly the US Dollar, British Pound, and commodity currencies. The October 30 ECB decision confirmed the hold, reinforcing the euro's positive momentum. EUR/USD forecasts for year-end range from 1.15 to 1.20, with the consensus around 1.16-1.17. The euro's relative strength is underpinned by narrowing rate differentials with the Fed and stabilizing eurozone growth dynamics. Swiss Franc (CHF): Safe Haven Supremacy Despite Zero Rates Swiss National Bank Policy The Swiss National Bank has maintained its policy rate at 0.00% and shows no inclination to move into negative territory despite franc strength. At its September meeting, the SNB notably refrained from describing the franc as "highly valued" or expressing concern over its appreciation—a significant shift in communication. This suggests the SNB has become more comfortable with franc strength, particularly as Switzerland's real exchange rate remains relatively stable due to low domestic inflation of just 0.2%. Economic Environment Switzerland's economy is projected to grow 1.5% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026, with inflation expected to remain subdued at 0.2% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026. The SNB characterized current policy settings as "appropriately expansionary" despite the 0% rate, and expressed confidence that inflation will remain within the 0-2% target range. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, with weaker growth prospects potentially limiting any hawkish policy adjustments. November Outlook: Bullish The Swiss franc's safe-haven status provides strong support in November's uncertain environment. EUR/CHF has been trading around 0.92-0.93, and analysts expect the pair to gradually appreciate toward 0.96 over the next 12 months, implying modest franc weakness against the euro. However, against the dollar, the franc is expected to strengthen significantly, with USD/CHF forecasts suggesting 0.77 within a year, with downside risks toward 0.75 or even 0.73. The franc's outperformance has persisted despite substantial interest rate differentials, demonstrating the power of safe-haven flows in the current geopolitical environment. Verdict CHF sits uncontested at the head of the circle of major currencies at the moment. Even a very stable EUR cannot challenge it. We expect a further decline of EUR/CHF in November and would recommend a SELL .