The Honest Company (HNST): decision zone, not imaginationPrice is testing a strong support area where diagonal support, volume profile and the 0.618 Fibonacci zone converge. This level previously acted as a launchpad for impulsive moves, and price is reacting again. Selling pressure is fading, downside volume is drying up, and the structure remains intact. No breakdown so far - this is a technical test, not weakness.
The first objective is a recovery back toward the 3.90–4.00 area. Holding above support opens the path to 5.50 and later toward the 6.00+ zone, where heavy volume is located. The scenario is invalidated only by a clean breakdown below support with no recovery.
Fundamentally, the picture is stabilizing. The company printed positive EPS in 2025, quarterly revenue remains in the 90–100M USD range, and forward estimates show no deterioration.
The market is asking one question: does this base hold?
The answer is being written right now.
HNST
HNST: When honesty turns into a breakout formationOn the weekly chart, The Honest Company (HNST) is shaping a textbook broadening formation. Four waves are already in place, and the fifth is unfolding. The recent bounce came exactly after a retest of the long-term trendline at point (4), pushing the price above the critical $4.97 resistance (0.236 Fibo) — a clear signal that buyers are reclaiming control.
Volume is steadily rising, and the golden cross (MA50 crossing above MA200) further confirms a mid-term trend shift. The volume profile above current prices is nearly empty — indicating minimal resistance. Immediate targets are $6.33 and $6.94 (0.5 and 0.618 Fibo), while the full breakout projection lands at $8.91, $10.31, and even $12.09 (based on 1.0, 1.272, and 1.618 expansions).
Fundamentals (as of June 28, 2025):
— Market Cap: ~$460M
— Revenue (TTM): ~$344M
— YoY Revenue Growth: +7.6%
— EPS: –0.18 (loss narrowing)
— Cash on hand: ~$24M
— Debt: under $10M
— P/S ratio: 1.34
Despite being unprofitable, HNST is showing strong signs of operational improvement — rising gross margins, controlled costs, and increasing leverage. Growth in both online and retail sales adds further support. With institutional buying picking up, the market may be slowly re-rating this small-cap FMCG player.
Trade Plan:
— Entry: by market
— Targets: $6.33 → $8.91 → up to $12.09
When even an "honest" stock starts drawing broadening patterns and volume’s rising — it’s not a hint, it’s a launch sequence. And the bears? Might want to take a seat in the back.
HNST Cup and Handle BreakoutHNST is looking really good on the daily chart. It's already tripled off the lows, but is in the end stages of a textbook cup and handle and currently grinding up at resistance. A volume breakout, or a red to green open should send this straight through that $3.50 resistance. RSI held 50 and is now creeping it's way back up slow and steady. Could be due for another explosive move.


