BTC possible scenarios.Yesterday I was right about bear trap but unfortunately I got rekt badly at last night. It shows that I am much better analytic than trader. I set my trigger to open long @6680 on bimtex and because of the maintenace It opened around 7000 (6980 exactly). When I woke up in the morning I was very surprised of what happened. I have rather small leverage so I won;t be liquidated but the lesson is painful. DONT USE TRIGGERS during breakouts. I just wait now and watch what the price will do.
Now I have some things to watch. The first is that we have possible new upward pullback. If we base on recent pullback they were around 15% from previous top. It means that 7200 is target for this scenario.
My previous scenario about fractals should invalid because we broke 26EMA BUT we haven't closed above it yet. If BTC can close above it It will be bullish signal and 7200 target is very likely. If not there is high probabilty that we play such bear flag
From EMA perspective it looks very good for bulls. There are bullish crosses on 4h TF and price went confidently up EMAs. But 100 4hEMA is strong resistance and rejection is bearish. The same as 26 Daily EMA rejetction. But this EMAs have almost the same values.
Usually when we break 55 4EMA, 100EMA and support BTC bulls try to make a few attacks and push the price higher and makes few higher lows before drop.
One of example:
I would say there is no good setup right now for anybody but unfortunately I am in and I need to watch the price closely I set my stop loss @6450
This wick and even attack on 7200 doesn't distract my previous idea
and the target of 5200-5750 is still active. Why did I go long on this trigger? ugh...
