Carrier: The AI Infrastructure Winner Hiding in Plain SighHey TradingView community!
I see Carrier as a company that can highly benefit from the AI data center expansion, while at the same time not being exposed to the AI potential downside. Why? Because Carrier is an air conditioning and cooling giant that has a strong commercial and residential business no matter whether we are in an AI bubble or not. Also, it's a 100-year company that is not going belly up anytime soon.
THE OPPORTUNITY
Carrier Global is not a pure AI stock, but it is a critical AI infrastructure enabler through its leadership in high-efficiency cooling for data centers and AI-powered building energy management.
Carrier is quietly becoming a picks-and-shovels play in the AI buildout, without the valuation froth of chip or software names.
AI data center cooling demand surging → Carrier’s liquid cooling investments makes it the number one choice.
They help AI scaling with cooling → 650M kWh saved, 437K tons CO₂ reduced.
Commercial HVAC + Service = Recurring Moat → 15–20% organic growth in data center vertical
Viessmann integration on track → Europe heat pump can be huge
Balance sheet deleveraged → Net debt/EBITDA ~2.0x post-divestitures
THE NUMBERS
Current stock price: $55.16
DCF model values CARR at ~$80/share
2.36x Sales, and 42x TTM P/E (P/E is high due to the amortization of their big Viessmann factory in Europe
EV/EBITDA ~16.5x
Dividend yield 1.5%
Among its competitors (Trane, JCI and Vertiv), Carrier has the lowest EV/EBITDA at 16.5x
EBITDA margin 16.5%
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The stock is currently sitting at the $55 resistance level, which seems to be a good entry point. RSI shows oversold. Since July this year, the stock has dropped 32%, giving it a good discount.
I see a potential upside of 40% to 50% over the next year, and a maximum drawdown of 25%
My final thought is that the market is pricing Carrier as a cyclical HVAC company. It’s actually a defensive AI infrastructure play with a 100-year brand, recurring revenue, and a seat at the data center table.
