Immigration — Trading Ideas on TradingView

Is Germany's Economic Success Just an Illusion?Germany's benchmark DAX 40 index surged 30% over the past year, creating an impression of robust economic health. However, this performance masks a troubling reality: the index represents globally diversified multinationals whose revenues originate largely outside Germany's struggling domestic market. Behind the DAX's resilience lies fundamental decay. GDP fell 0.3% in Q2 2025, industrial output reached its lowest level since May 2020, and manufacturing declined 4.8% year-over-year. The energy-intensive sector suffered even steeper contraction at 7.5%, revealing that high input costs have become a structural, long-term threat rather than a temporary challenge. The automotive sector exemplifies Germany's deeper crisis. Once-dominant manufacturers are losing ground in the electric vehicle transition, with their European market share in China plummeting from 24% in 2020 to just 15% in 2024. Despite leading global R&D spending at €58.4 billion in 2023, German automakers remain trapped at Level 2+ autonomy while competitors pursue full self-driving solutions. This technological lag stems from stringent regulations, complex approval processes, and critical dependencies on Chinese rare earth materials, which could trigger €45-75 billion in losses and jeopardize 1.2 million jobs. Germany's structural rigidities compound these challenges. Federal fragmentation across 16 states paralyzes digitalization efforts, with the country ranking below the EU average in digital infrastructure despite ambitious sovereignty initiatives. The nation serves as Europe's fiscal anchor, contributing €18 billion net to the EU budget in 2024, yet this burden constrains domestic investment capacity. Meanwhile, demographic pressures persist, though immigration has stabilized the workforce; highly skilled migrants disproportionately consider leaving, threatening to transform a demographic solution into brain drain. Without radical reform to streamline bureaucracy, pivot R&D toward disruptive technologies, and retain top talent, the disconnect between the DAX and Germany's foundational economy will only widen.

Can France’s Economy Defy Gravity?The CAC 40, France’s flagship stock index, showcases the nation’s economic strength, driven by global giants like LVMH and TotalEnergies. With their vast international presence, these multinational corporations provide the index with notable resilience, allowing it to endure domestic challenges. However, this apparent stability masks a deeper, more intricate reality. Beneath the surface, the French economy grapples with significant structural issues that could undermine its long-term success, making the CAC 40’s performance both a symbol of hope and a point of vulnerability. France confronts multiple internal pressures that threaten its economic stability. An aging population, with a median age of 40—among the highest in developed nations—shrinks the workforce, increasing the burden of healthcare and pension costs. Public debt, projected to hit 112% of GDP by 2027, restricts fiscal flexibility, while political instability, such as a recent government collapse, hampers essential reforms. Compounding these issues is the challenge of immigration. France’s immigrant population, particularly from Africa and the Middle East, faces difficulties integrating into a rigid labor market shaped by strict regulations and strong unions. This struggle limits the nation’s ability to leverage immigrant labor to offset workforce shortages while straining social unity, adding further complexity to France’s economic challenges. Looking forward, France’s economic future hangs in the balance. The CAC 40’s resilience offers a buffer, but lasting prosperity depends on tackling these entrenched problems—demographic decline, fiscal constraints, political gridlock, and the effective integration of immigrants. To maintain its global standing, France must pursue bold reforms and innovative solutions, a daunting task requiring determination and foresight. As the nation strives to reconcile its rich traditions with the demands of a modern economy, a critical question looms: can France overcome these obstacles to secure a thriving future? The outcome will resonate well beyond its borders, offering lessons for a watching world.

World war and dollar, useless bitcoin and plans for the week Day by day the situation with a trade war is getting worse. On Friday, for example, the Mexican peso showed the strongest drop in the last seven months after the announcement of the introduction of new US duties on Mexican goods in response to the flow of illegal immigrants. It was a surprise to the markets since the agreement between the USA, Mexico and Canada did not provide for such a development of events. From June 10, duties on imports from Mexico will be 5%. But this is not the worst. If Mexico could not solve the problem of illegal immigrants, duties will gradually increase until they reach 25% by October. Interestingly enough how the US dollar reacted to this news, which has declined significantly in the foreign exchange market against major currencies. One of the reasons for this was the revision of the market expectations of the Fed. Last week, we already noted that markets tend toward two or even three rate cuts by the end of 2019. So, after hitting Mexico, markets began to incorporate the option in which the rate would be reduced 4 (!) Times. The chance is extremely small (for now) - only 4%. But the trend is the key thing, that plays exclusively against the dollar. Our recommendation on working with the dollar for this week in the light of such events remains unchanged, we only strengthened in our desire to sell the dollar. On Friday, Canadian GDP data was published. GDP growth was + 0.5% m / m and + 1.4% y / y when the forecast was + 0.4% m / m and + 1.2% y / y. Only events around Mexico (which call into question the fate of the USMCA, have kept it from growing but despite it, this is decently a signal in favor of buying the Canadian dollar. Last week, the Bitcoin price rose above $ 9,000, which again grew up chatter about the prospects of its growth. We found Chainalysis Inc., information interesting, according to which only 1.3% of Bitcoin operations were carried out with the aim of serving trade and commercial activity. That says that practically ALL operations with cryptocurrency are purely speculative in its nature (90% of Bitcoin operations are exchange transactions on different exchanges). In this regard, we recall our position - any growth of Bitcoin is a reason for its sales. Current prices are the best for this. The upcoming week promises to be difficult. Their decisions on the parameters of monetary policy will announce the Reserve Bank of Australia and the ECB, and the US will announce statistics on the labor market at the end of the week. Our positions for today and the week as a whole are following: we will look for points for buying of the euro and the pound against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, quite interesting, in our opinion, is buying of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar.

S&P 500 Testing the YTD Resistance The index look like it's testing the YTD resistance but the volume (9-day MA) is turning down, which might be a signal that the resistance might hold. Though the index is in a upward trend and the MACD is making new highs so there's hope that the resistance might be broken. With amount of noise in the market, the trade wars, the Brexit, and everything that's happening at the south of the border there's might be some volatility in the midst of the near future which might be hope for more volume to increase the momentum through the resistance.