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Market Seasonality: Finding Statistical Edges in Price Patterns🟢 Overview Market seasonality refers to recurring, quantifiable patterns in asset price movements that appear consistently across different time periods. Rather than mystical predictions, these patterns reflect systematic behavioral trends, institutional flows, and market structures that have persisted across years, and in some cases, centuries, of trading history. 🟢 How Seasonality Works Seasonality analysis examines historical price data to identify months or periods when specific assets have historically shown strength or weakness. The approach replaces emotion-driven decision-making with probabilistic insights based on historical performance across complete market cycles, including bull markets, bear markets, and periods of consolidation. By quantifying these patterns, traders and investors can identify potential statistical edges in their execution timing. 🟢 Evidence Across Asset Classes 1. Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD Since the development of futures markets and institutional participation, Bitcoin has demonstrated notable seasonal patterns with measurable statistical significance. September has averaged -1.92% returns, establishing it as the weakest month. In contrast, October has emerged as the strongest performer with average returns of +21.59% and a 90% positive occurrence. This level of consistency suggests a robust statistical edge rather than random variation. Day-of-week patterns in modern Bitcoin are relatively tight, with differences ranging from 0.07% to 0.50%. Monday edges out as the optimal day for selling positions. However, these daily patterns offer considerably less statistical significance than the monthly seasonality effects, as the weekly variations have smoothed out compared to Bitcoin's earlier history. 2. Ethereum INDEX:ETHUSD Ethereum displays even more pronounced seasonal variations with stronger directional bias. September has been particularly challenging, averaging -10.04% returns and showing negative performance in eight out of ten years, representing an 80% probability of decline. June also demonstrates weakness at -7.20% average returns. Conversely, May stands out as the strongest month with average returns of +34.97%, positive 70% of the time across the dataset. May has delivered positive returns in seven out of ten years, providing a statistically meaningful edge. Day-of-week analysis reveals differences of 0.2% to 0.6%, with Wednesday edging out slightly for selling and Tuesday showing marginally better performance for buying. However, these daily variations lack statistical significance when compared to the dramatic monthly patterns, representing more noise than actionable alpha for systematic strategies. 3. S&P 500 SP:SPX With over 50 years of data dating back to 1971, the S&P 500 demonstrates the famous "September Effect." September averages -0.90% returns and has been negative with notable consistency, establishing statistical significance through sheer sample size. November, capturing typical year-end institutional positioning, averages +1.73% with positive performance 70% of the time. April comes in second at +1.44% average returns. The persistence of these patterns across five decades provides robust evidence of systematic seasonal effects even in highly efficient markets. Day-of-week effects in the S&P 500 are minimal, ranging from just 0.01% to 0.07%. Monday shows a slight negative drift at -0.01%, while Wednesday edges up 0.07%. These intraday variations fall well within normal variance and lack statistical significance for execution timing. For this index, monthly patterns provide the primary source of seasonal alpha. 4. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD Perhaps most compelling is gold's seasonal data spanning nearly 200 years since 1832, offering an extraordinarily large sample size for statistical validation. January shows the strongest average returns at +0.99% and has been positive 80% of the time, representing a highly reliable statistical edge. June represents the weakest period at -0.18% average returns, with October also serving as a potential entry point at just 0.05% average returns. July comes in as the second-best month at +0.79%. The consistency of these patterns across multiple centuries, world events, and monetary system changes indicates deeply embedded structural inefficiencies in market dynamics. Day-of-week patterns in gold are similarly minimal. Thursday edges out at 0.09% for optimal selling, while Sunday shows 0.01% for buying opportunities. Like the S&P 500, gold trades predominantly on monthly patterns rather than daily variations, with intraweek effects lacking statistical significance. 🟢 TL;DR 1. Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD : Accumulate during September weakness (-1.92%), sell into October strength (+21.59%). October has been positive 9 out of 10 years since 2015, representing a 90% positive occurrence. Day of week: Sunday dips for buying, Monday for selling. 2. Ethereum INDEX:ETHUSD : Summer pain is real. September (-10.04%) and June (-7.20%) are buying opportunities. May (+34.97%) is the monster month historically, positive 7 out of 10 years (70% positive frequency). Day of week: Tuesday buying, Wednesday selling, but minimal statistical significance. 3. S&P 500 SP:SPX : The September Effect demonstrates statistical significance (-0.90% average over 50+ years). November (+1.73%) captures the year-end rally with 70% positive occurrence. Day of week effects are negligible (0.01-0.07%) and lack statistical significance. 4. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD : January strength (+0.99%, 80% positive frequency) after June weakness (-0.18%). Nearly 200 years of data backing these patterns provides exceptional statistical validation. Day of week: Sunday buying, Thursday selling, but minimal differences. 🟢 Final thoughts Ultimately, seasonality analysis does not guarantee future results, but it provides a framework for probabilistic decision-making with quantifiable statistical edges. Rather than attempting to time markets based on sentiment or short-term price movements, systematic traders and investors can align decisions with periods that have historically shown consistent strength or weakness with statistical significance. This approach is particularly valuable for planning entry and exit points, portfolio rebalancing, and managing position sizing within a rules-based framework. Notably, while day-of-week patterns exist in some assets, monthly seasonality tends to provide more significant and statistically reliable edges across most markets. The data suggests that seasonal patterns persist even in highly efficient markets, driven by recurring institutional behaviors, tax considerations, and structural market dynamics that create exploitable inefficiencies. Market seasonality should be viewed as one analytical tool within a comprehensive quantitative framework, not a guarantee of performance, but a method to incorporate historical probabilities and statistical edges into systematic investment decisions. This isn't about perfect timing either. It's about leveraging statistical edges based on historical probabilities instead of emotion. You'll still be wrong sometimes, but less often when operating with decades of data and quantifiable patterns rather than sentiment alone. 👉 Try the Seasonality Heatmap indicator yourself on TradingView to explore these patterns across different assets and timeframes. *This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by QuantAlgo
BTC Bitcoin & Crypto Selloff Alert: Is a Second Wave Imminent?If you haven`t bought BTC before the rally: The cryptocurrency market is still reeling from the brutal sell-off on Friday, October 10, 2025, triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. Bitcoin plummeted below $105,000, Ethereum dropped over 16% to under $3,700, and the broader market saw liquidations exceeding $19 billion—the largest single-day wipeout in crypto history, nine times bigger than February 2025's crash. While Monday and Tuesday brought some recovery, with Bitcoin climbing back above $115,000 and the total market cap topping $4 trillion, underlying issues like inflated trading volumes, massive altcoin losses, and a prominent whale re-entering a short position suggest this might just be a dead-cat bounce. This article explores why a second leg down could be imminent, incorporating technical analysis for TradingView users eyeing volatility plays. The Friday Flash Crash: A Perfect Storm Amplified by Fake Volumes The October 10 crash unfolded rapidly, with Bitcoin shedding nearly 10% in hours and over $200 billion erased from the market cap. But what made the drop so severe, especially for altcoins? A key culprit: fake trading volumes driven by wash trading. Wash trading, where traders buy and sell the same asset to themselves to inflate volumes, creates the illusion of liquidity and interest without real economic activity. Estimates suggest that up to 87-88% of crypto volumes are fake, often used in pump-and-dump schemes or to lure retail investors. In thin markets like crypto, these artificial volumes mask true liquidity. When real selling pressure hit—amplified by leveraged positions and the tariff news—exchanges like Binance saw cascading liquidations due to flawed margin systems. This "flash crash" wiped out $600–900 million in longs alone, but the fake volumes meant the market couldn't absorb the shock, leading to exaggerated drops. Analysts note that such illusions persist in 2025, with AI tools now exposing them, but regulators lag behind. If volumes remain overstated, any renewed catalyst could trigger another liquidity vacuum, setting up a second leg down. Altcoin Bloodbath: 50–90% Drops Expose Vulnerabilities While Bitcoin and Ethereum recovered somewhat, altcoins bore the brunt of the carnage. An index tracking altcoins (excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins) cratered about 33% in just 25 minutes, with some tokens plunging 50–90%. Tokens like Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin lost 20–60%, but lesser-known altcoins saw even steeper declines, highlighting the sector's over-leveraged and illiquid nature. This disproportionate pain stems from altcoins' reliance on hype and speculative inflows, often propped up by those same fake volumes. In a risk-off environment, capital flees to safer assets like Bitcoin, whose dominance spiked during the crash. Altseason indicators are now cooling (76–78 previously). Bitcoin dominance dropped below 59% post-crash. If earnings season in traditional markets reveals economic weakness, spilling over to crypto, altcoins could lead the next sell-off wave, potentially dropping another 20–50% if support levels break. The Whale Factor: $192M Profit, Then Re-Entry Signals Bearish Conviction Adding fuel to the fire is a mysterious crypto whale who timed the crash impeccably. Just 30 minutes before Trump's tariff announcement, this entity opened a massive short position on Bitcoin, pocketing $192 million in profits as the market tanked. Speculation abounds: Was it insider knowledge, or just savvy trading? Either way, the whale didn't stop there—they've re-entered with another short, increasing their position to $340 million, and even opened a fresh $163 million bearish bet. Other whales have followed suit, including: A Satoshi-era entity shorting $1.1 billion before the news An OG whale opening a $392 million short These moves suggest high conviction in further declines, possibly tied to ongoing trade tensions or macroeconomic risks. In a market where whales can move prices, this re-entry could catalyze the second leg, especially if it triggers more liquidations. My price target for Bitcoin is $95K
Short
by TopgOptions
Smart Money Long SetupKey Concepts: CHoCH (Change of Character) and BOS (Break of Structure) confirm shifts in market direction and continuation. Liquidity Grab: Price swept a strong low and tapped into a major support zone, inducing sellers before reversing. Entry Point: After the liquidity sweep, bullish reaction and structure formed a favorable entry (marked on chart). Target: The target is set at a prior weak high, aligning with imbalance and liquidity resting above. 🔍 Confluences: Price broke multiple minor structures (BOS) after the CHoCH. Dynamic support from the Keltner/Bollinger-like bands shows mean reversion potential. Strong rejection wick and consolidation at support confirm buyer interest. Trade Idea: Entry: ~0.80118 Target: ~0.80810 Stop Loss: Just below the strong low ~0.80010 or adjusted as per risk appetite. Risk-Reward: Favorable R:R setup, especially if price reclaims mid-range levels above 0.80443.
Long
by Hamza_Gold
2
ETH : analysis of the main timeframes!Hi😊 Today we'll be analyzing the ETH USDT trading pair. We'll start with the higher timeframe and move on to the lower one. Let's start with the daily chart: after breaking the high, the price continued to trade sideways. The IMB was tested from below, which responded and sent the price into a correction toward the downward wave. After the local liquidity drain, the price showed bearish aggression. Nearest support zone $4 332 - $4 245 1h timeframe: the price is showing a corrective movement, and has identified zones above from which a reaction to a further decline may occur 15m timeframe: there is a buildup of local liquidity for asset growth and price delivery to nearby problem areas Leave your reactions and comments if you like these short reviews
by mari_trade
NGAS 1D - bulls waiting for the green lightOn the daily chart, Natural Gas has broken out of a falling wedge, but price remains below the MA200, while EMA still hovers above it - a mixed signal showing short-term hesitation within a longer-term downtrend. The 3.10–3.20 buy zone remains key - that’s where the retest area aligns with short-term support. If buyers can reclaim the EMA and push above the MA200, the next upside targets are 4.14 and then 4.92. Volume on the breakout supports growing bullish interest, while fundamentals - like rising seasonal demand - may soon add more fuel to the move. Tactically , watch how price behaves near MA200. Once EMA flips back on top, momentum could accelerate fast. Until then, the market’s like a gas burner waiting for that click - ignition pending
FX:NGASLong
by TotoshkaTrades
Bullish Thesis: Why AMD Stock Could Soar by Year-End 2025If you haven`t bought AMD before the previous rally: What to consider now: 1. AI Tailwinds Are Accelerating AMD is finally gaining serious traction in the AI GPU race. Its MI300X accelerator chips are being adopted by big names like Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle for data center AI workloads. While NVIDIA is still dominant, AMD is expected to grab 10–20% of the AI GPU market share by 2025, according to industry estimates. That’s a multibillion-dollar opportunity. The MI300X already passed $1B in revenue within its first quarters. AI server TAM (total addressable market) is expected to grow to $400B by 2027 — AMD is positioning itself aggressively to carve out its slice. 2. Valuation Looks Reasonable vs Peers AMD trades at a forward P/E around 40, significantly below Nvidia (which trades over 60x) despite similar growth projections for the next 2 years. Revenue expected to grow over 15–20% YoY in 2025. Gross margins expanding as high-performance chips dominate the mix. 3. Diversified Growth: Beyond AI Gaming segment (PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X chips) remains strong. Embedded segment from Xilinx acquisition continues to generate solid cash flow. Client CPU business is rebounding as the PC market stabilizes. 4. Strong Management and Execution CEO Lisa Su is widely respected for turning AMD around and guiding the company through major innovations and acquisitions (Xilinx, Pensando). Execution has remained consistent, especially in delivering cutting-edge performance-per-watt chips. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:AMDLong
by TopgOptions
Gold is preparing a pause before a new breakthroughOn the 30-minute chart, gold remains inside the ascending channel but is showing local signs of overheating: price hit resistance around 3875 and pulled back. The technical setup suggests a correction towards the channel support and the 0.5–0.618 Fibo zone (3833–3823), where buyers are expected to step in. If support holds, the bullish trend may resume with targets at 3909 and 3941. Volume indicates selling pressure at highs, but the overall trend remains intact - moving averages are pointing upward, and the higher-high structure is still valid. Tactical plan: watch how the 3833–3823 zone reacts; if buyers confirm control, gold has room for another strong push. And if bulls rush without giving a pullback - that’s the classic “market never waits for your comfy chair” scenario.
TVC:GOLDLong
by TotoshkaTrades
SPY S&P 500 etf Oversold on the RSI ! 2025 Price Target ! The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is flashing a major buy signal, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sitting at 28.33 — firmly in oversold territory. Historically, every time SPY has entered oversold levels on the RSI, institutional buyers have stepped in aggressively, driving sharp rebounds in the following weeks and months. The last time SPY dipped below the 30 RSI threshold was during market pullbacks in 2022 and 2023 — both of which were followed by significant rallies as institutions capitalized on discounted valuations. The current setup is no different. With earnings growth stabilizing, inflation cooling, and the Federal Reserve signaling a potential shift toward rate cuts in the second half of the year, the backdrop for a recovery is aligning perfectly. Technically, SPY is also approaching key support levels that have held strong in past market corrections. The combination of an oversold RSI and strong institutional appetite at these levels creates a compelling case for a bounce. My price target for SPY by year-end is $640, representing over 15% upside from current levels. With sentiment stretched to the downside and technical indicators flashing green, SPY looks primed for a sharp and sustained rebound. Now could be the perfect time to position for the next leg higher.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
2
Russell 2000 Year-End Price Target and Technical Rebound OutlookIf you ahven`t bought the Double Bottom on RUT 2K: Now the Russell 2000 Index (RUT), which tracks small-cap stocks, has recently entered oversold territory, signaling that a potential technical rebound could be on the horizon. Oversold conditions typically occur when selling pressure becomes excessive, driving the index below its fundamental value and creating an opportunity for a corrective bounce. Several technical indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), have fallen below the 30 level — a classic oversold signal. Historically, similar setups have led to strong short-term recoveries as buying interest returns once the selling momentum exhausts itself. Additionally, market breadth indicators suggest that the recent pullback has been broad-based, with a high percentage of RUT 2K components trading below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This type of widespread weakness often precedes a period of mean reversion, where prices bounce back toward key resistance levels. Given these technical signals, my price target for RUT 2K is $2,450 by the end of the year. A rebound toward this level would represent a recovery of approximately 10-12% from current levels, aligning with previous post-oversold rallies in the index. If broader market sentiment stabilizes and small caps benefit from improving economic conditions or easing rate hike pressures, the path toward this target becomes increasingly plausible. While downside risks remain — including ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions — the technical setup suggests that RUT 2K is primed for a recovery in the coming months.
TVC:RUTLong
by TopgOptions
1
AAPL Apple Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought AAPL before the previous rally: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AAPL Apple prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 255usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2026-1-16, for a premium of approximately $7.30. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:AAPLLong
by TopgOptions