Bitcoin BTCUST 2018 Infinity and BeyondBitcoin BTCUSD 2018
Well the last day of trading Bitcoin in 2107 was a difficult one. We managed to bag 450 or points from 13000 to 13460 early
on (and day traders another 300-450 trading the range from 13000 to 13150, also earlier in London session) but then lost the
plot as the day wore on with two poor trades centered around the 14000 level which lost 50-150 points each time. So it
wasn't a grand-stand finish to the year, unfortunately, and on a bad day we ended up just 150 points or so ahead (maybe
450 or so if day trading). But in 60 or so days of fairly intense mining we have extracted over 19,000 points from Bitcoin if
you go back and total the trades. So it took about 2 months to buy Bitcoin outright and still have some change left over. No
one can say what 2108 holds in store. But just so long as the great mine in the sky remains open for business we have to
work it. There may never be an opprtunity like this again in our lifetimes...how often does mankind attempt to put a value on
Ether? Never. Bitcoin has a value of somewhere between $5 and $50,000. That's all we can say. But that is one hell of a
range to play inside...a range we are basically making up as we go along. That creates a wonderful, big space for traders to
play within. So long as Bitcoin keeps moving fast we should be able to make some good returns again this year coming. And if
we only average a paltry 200 or so point return each day as yesterday, that translates into 1400 points per week and will
therefore take just 10 weeks for us to own Bitcoin outright through traded profits. And that in turn means we buy Bitcoin
5 times over in a year. So by working this mine systematically and intensely and by looking to trade patterns and not price,
we should be able to make good returns for as long as it stays open to us.
Please Pay this Forward
These commentaries on the life and times of Bitcoin began in earnest 60 days ago - mostly because seeing some of the
forecasts by Tradingview's 'top' writers covering Bitcoin and how vague and confusing and ultimately unhelpful they can be
just twanged my vibes so strongly that I had to do something about it. It began as an experiment in human nature - am old,
pretty much retired but still totally addicted to charts, especially in 'bubble' type situations because the chart is just
a temperature gauge showing how 'hot' people feel in aggregate about product 'X'. It is human nature in the raw,
displayed on screen. People make patterns. And people don't change. Each generation tends to think it's smarter than the
one that went before it - their cars are faster, safer, they'll be driving themselves soon; their toys are way cooler - pretty
much everything except music and movies is just ...better. So the confidence of each new generation is understandable to an
extent. But the truth is that human nature itself never changes. We react in exactly the same way to fear and greed
as we always did. Deep down, under the surface absolutely nothing has changed. We're human, is ALL. So we track and
trade the recognisable patterns that humans make across the chart - the same patterns humans always tend to make across
the ages - whether that's the patterns made in 1927-1933 at the end of the 'roaring' Twenties or the patterns made by the
Tokyo bubble exactly 60 years later (1987-1993) or the patterns made by Nasdaq from 1997-2003 or the patterns
made now by Bitcoin (2017-2023?) ...they are all the same. With one big difference: time. We know Bitcoin moves
something between 60 and 100 tmes faster than pretty much any speculative instrument ever devised by man so far in all
history. What happens on the SandP over weeks is displayed here in hours. It means that there are roughly 60 to 100 times
more opportunities to open trades in Bitcoin than there are to open trades on SandP, obviously. One is just a fractal of the
other. All we have do is watch for patterns to develop, identify them, and trade them.
