EURJPY - Market is at Overbought Zone, Expecting Correction..!The image provided is a forex trading chart for the EUR/JPY currency pair, illustrating a technical analysis strategy.
The analysis identifies a "daily resistance" level where traders are advised to "look for shorts" (sell positions), anticipating a price decline.
Technical Analysis Overview 📊
Currency Pair: Euro / Japanese Yen (EUR/JPY). 💴
Strategy: The chart highlights a resistance level (the upper horizontal line around 185.5 JPY per Euro) where selling pressure has historically increased.
Actionable Insight: The text "LOOK FOR SHORTS" suggests implementing a trading strategy to profit from an expected downward price movement, often used when a market is considered overbought. ⬇️
Market Context: As of recent data (January 2026), the EUR/JPY pair has been trading near record highs, with some analyses noting potential bearish divergence in technical indicators, which could support the short-selling idea. ⬇️
Jpy
Live trade: USD JPY long. Fundamental explanation It is the same trade as Monday, with essentially the same reasoning. I currently feel the JPY is the only short in town and given US ISM SERVICE data is still higher than the FED would like, I feel USD JPY has a little room to the upside before 'intervention threats' return.
Similar to Monday, you may prefer a different 'long currency' (in particular the AUD).
It's a 20 pip stop loss with 25 pip profit target.
The main risks to the trade are intervention threats or fresh negative market sentiment (earnings, Greenland, Iran, et cetera)
USDJPY 30MIN CHART SHORTUSDJPY has been climbing back up since the rate check conducted by Japan, but it has now reached a critical point. In order to maintain a bearish price structure, the pair needs to start dropping from this zone, right near the strong moving average area. The stop-loss is set above the recent highs to avoid getting taken out unnecessarily by a minor move.
USDJPY H4 | Bullish Momentum To ExtendBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price fall towards our buy entry level at 154.51, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Our stop loss is set at 153.58, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 157.19, which is a pullback resistance.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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Bullish bounce off?EUR/JPY has bounced off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 183.52
1st Support: 182.78
1st Resistance: 185.54
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Bullish momentum to extend?AUD/JPY is falling towards the pivot point of 108.52, which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 108.52
1st Support: 108.09
1st Resistance: 109.76
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
USDJPY - Global Short PositionFollowing a strong bullish impulse, USD/JPY has entered a corrective phase. Price failed to sustain above key resistance and is now showing signs of trend exhaustion. Current structure favors a bearish continuation toward lower support zones.
🎯 Technical Analysis:
— Clear rejection from recent highs
— Lower highs and lower lows forming on intraday structure
— Breakdown from bullish momentum into corrective bearish leg
📰 Fundamental Context:
Seasonal yen strength remains a relevant factor. During spring, Japanese corporations and institutional investors typically repatriate capital ahead of the fiscal year-end. This recurring flow historically supports JPY appreciation and adds downside pressure to USD/JPY, reinforcing the current bearish technical setup.
GBPJPY Big Drop ComingPrice has been in a strong bullish trend, respected by a rising trendline from November through January.
In late January, price breaks the main trendline and begins forming a descending channel, signaling a potential loss of bullish momentum.
A CHoCH (Change of Character) is marked, confirming a shift from bullish to bearish market structure.
Price retraces back into a premium / supply zone (red area) near 213.0–214.6, aligning with prior highs and resistance.
A short trade idea is illustrated:
Entry: in the supply zone near 213+
Stop loss: above the red zone highs
Targets: downside continuation into the green zone, with final target around 201.9
The projected path suggests a pullback into resistance, followed by bearish continuation toward lower liquidity and previous demand levels.
Bullish bounce off?USD/JPY has bounced off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 154.52
1st Support: 153.58
1st Resistance: 157.77
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Could we see a bounce from here?EUR/JPY is reacting off the support level, which is a pullback support and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 183.49
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 182.31
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 185.46
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
#052: Long Investment Opportunity on USD/JPY
The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a particularly interesting market phase, where underlying bearish pressure coexists with technical signals of a possible short-term reaction. After a sharp decline, the price showed signs of slowing, suggesting the entry into a consolidation phase, typical of markets absorbing directional excess.
From a structural perspective, the main trend remains down, consistent with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows on higher time frames. However, this very trend has favored a progressive accumulation of speculative positions in the same direction, creating the conditions for a potential technical rebound. In such environments, the market often tends to move against the grain, hitting areas of liquidity before deciding on the next direction.
Price action analysis highlights how the latest phases of decline have been accompanied by increased volatility and impulsive movements, elements that often herald a phase of rebalancing. The appearance of candlesticks with pronounced wicks and less directional closes suggests that selling pressure is gradually diminishing, leaving room for corrective reactions.
From a volume perspective, the market is also showing signs of absorption. After the initial push, volumes tend to stabilize, indicating that the most aggressive traders have already taken positions. In these environments, subsequent movements are often driven by technical re-entries and position coverings, rather than new directional initiatives.
On the macroeconomic front, the monetary policy differential continues to support the dollar in the medium to long term, while the yen remains structurally weak. However, in the short term, this imbalance does not prevent the market from experiencing temporary rebounds, especially when positioning becomes excessively unbalanced. It is precisely in these phases that the exchange rate tends to move more technically than fundamentally.
The intermarket picture is currently not showing signs of strong risk aversion that would favor a decisive flow towards the yen. This reduces the likelihood of immediate downward accelerations and strengthens the hypothesis of a price breathing space. Bond and currency markets appear to be moving in a more orderly fashion, without sudden shocks.
In summary, USD/JPY is in an unstable equilibrium: the main trend remains bearish, but the market is showing signs of a corrective phase. In these contexts, patience and a good understanding of the structure become crucial, as the most interesting moves often emerge precisely when consensus appears excessively biased in one direction.
As always, the price will provide clarity. The market's ability to sustain any rebounds or, conversely, decisively resume its main direction will offer valuable insights into institutional investors' intentions in the coming sessions.
USDJPY - 4H - ShortWhen changing the structure to the Daily frame, the price left a large GAP, which is a magnet for the price. On the weekly time frame, we have several reasons for the price to fall in a downward direction, namely the presence of a Gartley pattern, as well as the creation of many equilibrium levels in a downward direction and in the range of 148-151 price levels. On the H4, we have a nice impulse candle whose Take Profit coincides perfectly with the POC zone, as well as demand at a price of 152,800. So, we can expect a downward movement in the price before continuing the target to 157,400. We expect the price to continue in a downward direction in the first days of the new week and then to head towards higher peaks up to 157 dollars per yen.
USDJPY H4 | Heading Towards 50% Fib ResistanceBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price rise towards our sell entry level at 155.64, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our stop loss is set at 157.27, which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 153.53, which is a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd fxcm.com
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC fxcm.com Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited fxcm.com
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com
Potential bullish bounce off?USD/JPY has bounced off the pivot, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 153.15
1st Support: 149.97
1st Resistance; 157.45
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
50% Fib resistance ahead?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 155.62
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacc retracement.
Stop loss: 157.21
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 153.64
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USDJPY Uptrend in Focus | Fed Chair News Supports USDHey Traders,
In tomorrow’s trading session, we are closely monitoring USDJPY around the 154.150 zone. USDJPY remains in a well-defined uptrend and is currently undergoing a healthy corrective pullback, approaching a key trendline confluence and the 154.150 support-turned-resistance area, which may act as an important reaction zone for continuation.
From a fundamental perspective, the recent nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair has helped support the US Dollar in the short term, as markets anticipate a more conventional and fiscally disciplined policy stance. This near-term USD strength could provide additional upside momentum for USDJPY, aligning well with the prevailing bullish technical structure.
As always, wait for confirmation and manage risk responsibly.
Trade safe,
Joe.
Yen Carry Unwind Starting To Show Up?This week felt off.
Not normal pullback off.
Flow off.
Look at the order everything happened.
First thing that moved?
USDJPY smashed lower.
159 → 152
fast rate checks / intervention talk / BOJ tightening noise
That’s a HUGE move for a funding currency.
And that’s where my brain went…
“hmm… carry stress?”
Because FX usually moves first.
Not metals.
Not stocks.
Then what happened next?
Gold and silver ripped all week.
Made sense.
Dollar weaker.
Metals bid.
Normal.
Then out of nowhere…
Gold dumped
Silver dumped
Metals got absolutely smoked
Not a normal pullback either.
Gold -20%
Silver -40%+
That’s not “macro selling”.
That’s “get me cash right now”.
Big difference.
That’s futures getting hit.
Hard.
Then…
Stocks start rolling.
Then…
Crypto melts over the weekend.
Then…
small regional banks popping up with stress.
That’s not random.
That’s liquidation.
That’s someone unwinding size somewhere.
And the bit that really caught my eye…
JPY crosses.
Every time gold + stocks puked…
CHFJPY / EURJPY / GBPJPY had those nasty moves.
Not trends.
Just straight air pockets.
100–200 pips down in minutes.
Then bounce like nothing happened.
That’s not retail.
That’s desks flattening.
That’s forced exits.
Liquidity disappears → price drops → order done → snap back.
Classic funding stress behavior.
Zoom out and it kinda lines up:
JGB yields creeping up
BOJ talking hikes
yen firming
USDJPY drops hard
Carry trades start hurting.
And when carry hurts, funds don’t “rebalance”.
They just sell whatever’s liquid first.
Gold.
Silver.
Index futures.
Raise cash.
Then the FX leg gets unwound.
Then the crosses start flushing.
Even the futures positioning is interesting:
Dealers heavily long CHF
~ +52k net long
CHF already crowded defensive positioning.
Not loads of fresh upside fuel.
JPY futures
Leveraged funds heavily short
~ -70k net short
Huge short positioning.
So if yen squeezes?
Those shorts have to cover fast.
And that’s exactly what those spike-down moves look like.
This smells way more like leverage coming out of the system
Than normal market noise.
And when that happens…
JPY crosses usually show it first.
Those pairs might be worth watching the next few weeks.
They’re starting to twitch.
And twitchy FX usually means funding stress somewhere.
Anyone else seeing the same weird flows or just me staring at charts too much 😄
USDJPY H1 | Bullish Bounce OffThe price is falling towards our buy entry level at 152.99, which is an overlap support.
Our stop loss is set at 152.14, which is a swing low support.
Our take profit is set at 154.73, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd fxcm.com
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC fxcm.com Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited fxcm.com
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com
Heading towards 38.2% Fib resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot, which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 154.67
1st Support: 152.16
1st Resistance: 156.21
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party






















