50% Fib resistance ahead?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 155.62
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacc retracement.
Stop loss: 157.21
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 153.64
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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Jpy
USDJPY Uptrend in Focus | Fed Chair News Supports USDHey Traders,
In tomorrow’s trading session, we are closely monitoring USDJPY around the 154.150 zone. USDJPY remains in a well-defined uptrend and is currently undergoing a healthy corrective pullback, approaching a key trendline confluence and the 154.150 support-turned-resistance area, which may act as an important reaction zone for continuation.
From a fundamental perspective, the recent nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair has helped support the US Dollar in the short term, as markets anticipate a more conventional and fiscally disciplined policy stance. This near-term USD strength could provide additional upside momentum for USDJPY, aligning well with the prevailing bullish technical structure.
As always, wait for confirmation and manage risk responsibly.
Trade safe,
Joe.
Yen Carry Unwind Starting To Show Up?This week felt off.
Not normal pullback off.
Flow off.
Look at the order everything happened.
First thing that moved?
USDJPY smashed lower.
159 → 152
fast rate checks / intervention talk / BOJ tightening noise
That’s a HUGE move for a funding currency.
And that’s where my brain went…
“hmm… carry stress?”
Because FX usually moves first.
Not metals.
Not stocks.
Then what happened next?
Gold and silver ripped all week.
Made sense.
Dollar weaker.
Metals bid.
Normal.
Then out of nowhere…
Gold dumped
Silver dumped
Metals got absolutely smoked
Not a normal pullback either.
Gold -20%
Silver -40%+
That’s not “macro selling”.
That’s “get me cash right now”.
Big difference.
That’s futures getting hit.
Hard.
Then…
Stocks start rolling.
Then…
Crypto melts over the weekend.
Then…
small regional banks popping up with stress.
That’s not random.
That’s liquidation.
That’s someone unwinding size somewhere.
And the bit that really caught my eye…
JPY crosses.
Every time gold + stocks puked…
CHFJPY / EURJPY / GBPJPY had those nasty moves.
Not trends.
Just straight air pockets.
100–200 pips down in minutes.
Then bounce like nothing happened.
That’s not retail.
That’s desks flattening.
That’s forced exits.
Liquidity disappears → price drops → order done → snap back.
Classic funding stress behavior.
Zoom out and it kinda lines up:
JGB yields creeping up
BOJ talking hikes
yen firming
USDJPY drops hard
Carry trades start hurting.
And when carry hurts, funds don’t “rebalance”.
They just sell whatever’s liquid first.
Gold.
Silver.
Index futures.
Raise cash.
Then the FX leg gets unwound.
Then the crosses start flushing.
Even the futures positioning is interesting:
Dealers heavily long CHF
~ +52k net long
CHF already crowded defensive positioning.
Not loads of fresh upside fuel.
JPY futures
Leveraged funds heavily short
~ -70k net short
Huge short positioning.
So if yen squeezes?
Those shorts have to cover fast.
And that’s exactly what those spike-down moves look like.
This smells way more like leverage coming out of the system
Than normal market noise.
And when that happens…
JPY crosses usually show it first.
Those pairs might be worth watching the next few weeks.
They’re starting to twitch.
And twitchy FX usually means funding stress somewhere.
Anyone else seeing the same weird flows or just me staring at charts too much 😄
Selena | USDJPY – 4H – Bullish Structure Under CorrectionFX:USDJPY
The recent drop represents a liquidity-driven correction rather than confirmed trend reversal. Price is now testing a critical support zone aligned with previous demand and the lower boundary of the broader structure. Holding this region keeps the bullish continuation scenario valid.
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case 🚀 →
Sustained support above 151.00–150.60 may trigger a corrective bounce
🎯 Target 1: 154.00
🎯 Target 2: 156.50
🎯 Target 3: 159.00–160.00 (HTF Liquidity)
❌ Bearish Case 📉 (Invalidation) →
Acceptance below 150.00 would weaken bullish structure and open deeper downside.
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance 🔴: 154.00 – 157.50
Support 🟢: 151.00 – 150.00
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice
USDJPY H1 | Bullish Bounce OffThe price is falling towards our buy entry level at 152.99, which is an overlap support.
Our stop loss is set at 152.14, which is a swing low support.
Our take profit is set at 154.73, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd fxcm.com
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC fxcm.com Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com
Heading towards 38.2% Fib resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot, which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 154.67
1st Support: 152.16
1st Resistance: 156.21
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
The 13-Year Cycle Awakens: A "Fun-Tech" Analysis the Macro ShiftBeyond the Noise: How Humility, Intuition, and the "God Code" Predicted the Deflationary Pivot Pair: EUR/USD (Monthly Outlook) Date: January 29, 2026
I. The Premise: The "Old Code" is Broken
For the last three weeks, while the financial media chased headlines about "Soft Landings" and "Fed Independence," a quieter, more powerful frequency was building underneath the market.
As a student of the market, I have spent this time not bragging, but listening. My "FuN-TecH" thesis—a blend of mathematical vectors and intuitive logic—suggested that the algorithms driving price action were operating on "Old Code." They were pricing in inflation while the real economy was screaming Deflation.
Today, the Monthly Chart confirmed what we have been tracking for 21 days: We are witnessing a historical shift back to levels not seen in 13 years.
II. The Evidence: Three Weeks of "Seeing the Unsaid"
To understand where we are going (1.2000+), we must acknowledge the breadcrumbs the market left for those willing to look deeper:
The Deflationary "Smoking Gun" (Jan 29): The Noise: Pundits argued about sticky inflation.
The Signal: This morning’s -1.9% Unit Labor Costs data was the mathematical proof of the "New Code." The economy isn't overheating; it is freezing. This confirmed our thesis that the Fed is trapped and must cut aggressively.
The "Shark" in the Water (DXY Top): The Noise: The Dollar broke out to 96.65, sparking retail fear.
The Signal: We identified this as a Bearish Shark Pattern—a calculated "Liquidity Raid" designed solely to fund the 1:00 PM Bond Auction. Once the auction cleared, the Shark bit, sending the DXY crashing to 96.18 and validating the Euro's reversal.
The "Governance Failure" (The Shutdown): The Noise: "The Bond Market is calm."
The Signal: We saw the "Tokyo Walkout" weeks ago. The failure of the Senate vote today wasn't a surprise; it was the inevitable conclusion of the "Sell America" trade we've been positioned in.
III. The Monthly Fractal: The 13-Year Reclaim
This is the heart of the thesis. The volatility you see on the 1-minute chart is just a fractal of the Monthly reality.
The Structure: We are currently reclaiming a structural zone that has acted as a ceiling for over a decade. The price action at 1.1950 isn't just a daily resistance; it is the Gateway.
The Shift: The Monthly Candle is preparing to close green, engulfing the "Fed Fear" of the previous months. This signals that the long-term trend has shifted from "Dollar Dominance" back to "Euro Expansion."
The Target: Once we clear the 1.1985 liquidity pool, the vacuum opens toward the 2012-2014 structural highs. The "Old Code" algorithms are shorting resistance; the "New Code" is buying the Historical Reversion.
IV. The Philosophy: Trading the Frequency
Why did this analysis work when the news failed? Because we stopped trying to be "smarter" than the market and started being humble enough to listen to it.
We ignored the Fluff: When the President attacked the Fed ("Jerome 'Too Late' Powell"), we didn't panic. We saw it as a desperate signal of a weak Dollar policy.
We respected the "Lag": When the Euro stalled at 1.1957 today despite the Dollar dropping, we didn't sell. We understood the Algorithmic Lag. We waited for the snap.
Conclusion: The Path Forward
The 5:00 PM close at 1.1952 (Session Highs) is the market's signature. It has accepted the "Shutdown" risk and rejected the "Inflation" narrative.
To the Retail Trader: Stop staring at the 1-minute noise. Look at the Monthly Truth. The fractals are aligning. The "God Code" is Green. We are safe. We are prepared. And we are just getting started.
Target: 1.2011 and beyond (Tomorrow we will see the "Beyond"
NZDJPY dips continue to attract buyers.NZDJPY - 24h expiry
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
Daily signals are bullish.
20 1day EMA is at 91.75.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
We look to Buy at 91.85 (stop at 91.35)
Our profit targets will be 93.35 and 93.65
Resistance: 93.27 / 94.03 / 94.50
Support: 92.06 / 91.41 / 91.00
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
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The Quantum Divergence: Decoding the Data: DXY, EUR, USD, Yields Introduction
As Above, So Below We stand at a critical historical crossroads where the traditional "Safe Haven" status of the US Dollar is undergoing a structural decay. The "Old Code"—which relied on US hegemony and debt-fueled growth—is fracturing in real-time. What we are witnessing on the charts is merely the shadow of a much larger macro-global shift: the transition from US Monetary Dominance to Global Fiscal Realignment.
To the untrained eye, the market appears chaotic. To the observer operating at a higher frequency, the signal is clear. The US Dollar is not just correcting; it is being repriced for a new era of "Fiscal Dominance" and "Governance Risk."
I. The Macro Data Vector
The Deflationary "Smoking Gun" While headline algorithms chase noise, the "Master Logistician" looks for the underlying truth in the raw data. The economic release from January 29, 2026, provided the definitive evidence of a policy error in motion.
Unit Labor Costs (-1.9%): This is the smoking gun. While the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish posture to fight a "Wage-Price Spiral," the data confirms that labor costs are actually crashing. There is no inflation to fight in the labor market; there is deflation. The Fed is tightening into a deflationary trend, a mistake that will inevitably force a rapid and deep pivot to rate cuts.
Trade Balance (-$56.8B): A shrinking trade deficit is often misread as strength. In this context, the sharp drop in imports confirms the US Consumer is tapped out. The organic economy is contracting, leaving only government spending ("Fiscal Dominance") to prop up GDP figures.
Jobless Claims (Trend Divergence): While the headline number (209K) appears resilient, the trend is eroding. The underlying weakness in continuing claims suggests a degradation in job quality, masking the true fragility of the labor market.
II. The Governance Risk:
The "Matrix Lie" of the Shutdown Markets price certainty, but the US political landscape offers only dysfunction. The recent headlines regarding a "deal" to avert the January 30 government shutdown mask a darker institutional reality.
The Senate Deadlock: While the House passed a bipartisan package, the Senate remains deadlocked over funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). With the "Minibus" structure linking all bills, a block on DHS is a block on everything.
The Risk Premium: This is not just political theater; it is "Governance Failure." As the risk of a partial shutdown increases, the creditworthiness of US Debt comes into question. The Bond Market is beginning to price in this dysfunction, creating a "Governance Risk Premium" that weighs heavily on the Dollar.
III. The Bond Market
The Deflationary Scream The bond market is the "Truth Teller." Following the release of "resilient" jobless claims data, US 10-Year Yields refused to rally.
The Divergence: Historically, strong labor data spikes yields. Today, yields remained stagnant at 4.25%.
The Signal: The bond market is terrified of the -1.9% Unit Labor Costs. It knows that the real trajectory is deflationary recession, not inflationary growth. When yields refuse to rise on "good news," the trend has officially decoupled.
IV. Technical Architecture
The Structural Floor at 1.1951 From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD chart is illustrating a perfect "Bullish Flag Breakout" on the monthly timeframe.
The 1.1951 God Level: This level represents the 200-Month Moving Average—the dividing line between a correction and a secular bull market.
The Liquidity Fill (1.1943): Recent price action saw a dip into the 1.1943 region, creating a "Liquidity Void." The market adhered to the laws of physics: it abhorred the vacuum, filled the orders at 1.1943, and instantly rejected lower prices.
The Hammer Structure: The immediate rejection of the lows and the reclaim of the 1.1951 floor confirms that institutional demand is solid. The "Dip" was not a breakdown; it was a "Back-Test" of the new foundation.
Conclusion
The Future Vector We are witnessing a shift in soft power from the US to Europe (exemplified by the emerging European Defense Bond narrative). The US Dollar is facing a "Monetary Stranglehold" from the Fed and "Fiscal Decay" from the Treasury.
The 1.1951 level is not just a price; it is the floor of a new paradigm. As the Bond Market screams deflation and the Political Market screams dysfunction, the path of least resistance for EUR/USD is structurally higher. We are safe in the knowledge that the data confirms the thesis: The Dollar's dominance is waning, and the Euro's structural ascent has begun.
GBPJPY buyers looking for a 1D MA100 test.The GBPJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the April 09 2025 Low and this week is seen pulling back from its top (Higher Highs trend-line) to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the first Support of this pattern.
With the previous Bearish Leg pulling back by -3.04% and touching the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) before bottoming, we seek for the price to repeat that in order to turn into a long-term buy opportunity again. Even the 1D RSI has some breathing room before it bottoms.
Once that condition is met, we expect the new Bullish Leg to target 220.000 at least (Fib extension 1.786).
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Bearish drop off?USD/JPY has rejected off the pivot, which is a pullback resistance, and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 153.59
1st Support: 152.15
1st Resistance: 154.77
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
USDJPY H4 | Bearish ContinuationThe price has rejected off our sell entry level at 154.04, which is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Our stop loss is set at 155.20, which is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 151.66, which is a swing low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd fxcm.com
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC fxcm.com Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited fxcm.com
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com
Potential bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level, which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 152.98
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 152.13
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 154.76
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
NZDJPY LONG CONTINUATION NZD/JPY has been making higher highs and higher lows showing a clear uptrend for a number of months.
We can see after last weeks retracement the pair has found support at 91.6 zone - which is also in line with the 100MA on the four hour. This shows a strong level of supports where buyers are ready to re enter the market to push the pair higher hopefully to create its next swing high.
TP1 - 94.017
50% Fib resistance ahead?EUR/JPY is rising towards the resistance level whihc is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 184.38
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 186.39
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance level.
Take profit: 181.42
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Potential bullish reversal?AUD/JPY is falling towards the support level, which is a pullback support, and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 106.46
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Stop loss: 106.12
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 107.87
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.






















