AEVA Macro Setup: Textbook Bull Flag Breakout on Weekly ChartExecutive Summary: A High-Probability Continuation Play
We are currently tracking a massive technical setup on Aeva Technologies (AEVA) . After a parabolic impulse move of over 1,400% earlier this year, the stock has spent the last few months in a healthy, controlled consolidation phase.
The structure is now complete. The charts are signaling that the consolidation is over, and the next leg of the primary bullish trend is beginning.
Below is a detailed technical and structural analysis of why AEVA presents one of the most attractive risk/reward ratios in the market right now.
________________________________________
1. Market Structure: The "Bull Flag" Mechanics 🏳️
To understand where price is going, we must understand where it has been. The chart is forming a classic Bull Flag / Falling Wedge pattern on the Weekly Timeframe.
Phase 1: The Impulse (The Pole):
The initial rally from $2.50 to $35.60 was driven by institutional demand. This aggressive buying created a "change of character" in the stock, signaling a long-term trend reversal.
Phase 2: The Consolidation (The Flag):
For the past few months, price has drifted lower in a contained channel (marked by the yellow trendlines). Crucially, this sell-off was low volume . This indicates a lack of aggressive selling pressure. It was merely profit-taking by short-term traders, while long-term holders maintained their positions.
Phase 3: The Breakout (Current State):
Price is now breaking above the upper resistance of the wedge. This signals that the supply has dried up, and buyers are stepping back in to push prices higher.
________________________________________
2. Multi-Timeframe Confirmation 📊
A breakout is only as good as the indicators backing it up. We have strong confluence here:
A. Volume Analysis:
Volume is the fuel of any move. Notice the volume profile:
1. High volume during the initial rally (Accumulation).
2. Declining volume during the pullback (No supply).
3. Surging volume on the current breakout candle.
This sequence confirms that "Smart Money" is supporting the current move.
B. Momentum (Weekly MACD):
The MACD indicator on the weekly chart provides a powerful signal. The histogram is flipping bullish, and the signal lines are curling upward for a bullish crossover. Historically, weekly MACD crossovers on momentum stocks lead to multi-week or multi-month rallies.
________________________________________
3. Strategic Targets & Trade Management 🎯
Given the volatility of AEVA, we are using structural resistance levels rather than purely theoretical projections.
🛑 Stop Loss (Invalidation):
A weekly close back inside the wedge structure (below $14.00 - $14.50 ) would invalidate the breakout thesis.
✅ Target 1: The Test ($35.00 - $35.60)
The first major objective is a retest of the previous cycle high. The stock must prove it can clear the supply zone where sellers stepped in last time. Reaching this level represents a potential ~100% gain from current prices.
✅ Target 2: Blue Sky Breakout ($45.00 - $50.00)
If the stock clears $35.60 with volume, there is no overhead resistance. Using Fibonacci extensions, the next psychological targets sit at the $45 and $50 levels.
________________________________________
4. The Fundamental Catalyst (LiDAR)
Technical analysis tells us "when," but fundamentals tell us "why." The LiDAR and Autonomous Driving sector is waking up. As AEVA moves towards commercialization with major automotive partners, the market is pricing in future growth. The technical breakout is likely leading the fundamental news cycle.
💡 Conclusion
This is not a random movement. It is a structured, textbook technical pattern supported by volume and momentum. For traders looking for asymmetric upside, AEVA offers a pristine setup.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. I am not a financial advisor. Please manage your risk and trade according to your own plan.
Lidar
What is LiDAR: Can you profit from this theme? LiDAR stands for Light Detection and Ranging (or Laser Imaging Detection and Ranging). It's a remote sensing technology that uses laser light to measure distances and create highly detailed, three-dimensional information about the shape and surface characteristics of the Earth or objects.
some of the companies I'm watching in the space:
OUST
LAZR
INVZ
LIDR
AEVA
MBLY
Most of these companies are not profitable so keep that in mind for risk management.
Hesai Group (HSAI) – LiDAR Leader Gearing Up for a Global RunHesai NASDAQ:HSAI is a dominant force in automotive LiDAR, holding a 33% global market share. With a strong portfolio of next-gen sensors, the company is pushing boundaries in autonomous driving, robotics, and industrial automation.
🔹 Catalyst: Upcoming Hong Kong IPO ($475M target) adds global visibility, improves liquidity, and diversifies funding amid U.S.–China tensions.
🔹 Tech Edge: Showcased ETX and FTX models at IAA Mobility 2025 – leading in range, resolution, and solid-state design for L3/L4 autonomy.
🔹 Growth Path: Backed by OEM & Tier-1 partnerships, expanding globally with durable revenue streams.
💡 Bullish above $24.50–$25.00
🎯 Target zone: $40.00–$42.00
📊 Watching volume and price action closely into the IPO news cycle.
🧠 Tech + geopolitical tailwinds + market leadership = strong breakout potential.
#HSAI #LiDAR #AutonomousDriving #IPO #TechStocks
Aeva Technologies (AEVA) – Pioneering Next-Gen LiDAR Company Snapshot:
Aeva NASDAQ:AEVA is revolutionizing perception systems with 4D FMCW LiDAR—offering instant velocity detection, high precision, and long-range sensing, setting a new standard for autonomous systems.
Key Catalysts:
Breakthrough Technology
AEVA’s proprietary 4D Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) LiDAR provides real-time velocity and depth data, outperforming traditional Time-of-Flight systems in accuracy and safety.
Automotive OEM Traction 🚗
Strategic collaborations are translating into production-stage contracts, marking a key inflection from R&D to scalable revenue generation.
Multi-Sector Expansion 🌐
AEVA’s sensing tech is penetrating robotics, aerospace, and industrial automation, significantly broadening its TAM and diversifying revenue streams.
Government & Aerospace Validation
Recent contract wins with defense and aerospace clients underscore AEVA’s technological credibility and commercial viability.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Entry Zone: Above $22.50–$23.00
Upside Target: $39.00–$40.00, supported by production scaling, cross-sector adoption, and deep-tech differentiation.
⚙️ AEVA stands at the forefront of smart sensing innovation with strong momentum into high-growth verticals.
#AEVA #LiDAR #AutonomousVehicles #Robotics #Aerospace #IndustrialTech #SensorRevolution #4DPerception #FMCW #TechStocks #Innovation #SmartMobility
Is Digital LiDAR the Eye of Autonomy's Future?Ouster, Inc. (NYSE: OUST), a key player in the small-cap technology landscape, recently experienced a significant boost in its share price following a crucial endorsement from the United States Department of Defense (DoD). This approval of Ouster's OS1 digital LiDAR sensor for unmanned aerial systems (UAS) validates the company's technology. It highlights the growing importance of advanced 3D vision solutions in both defense and commercial sectors. Ouster positions itself as a foundational enabler of autonomy, with its digital LiDAR distinguishing itself through enhanced affordability, reliability, and resolution compared to traditional analog systems.
The DoD's inclusion of the OS1 sensor within its Blue UAS Framework represents a strategic victory for Ouster. This rigorous vetting process ensures supply chain integrity and operational suitability, making the OS1 the first high-resolution 3D LiDAR sensor to receive such an endorsement. This approval significantly streamlines procurement for various DoD entities, promising expanded adoption beyond Ouster's existing defense engagements. The OS1's superior performance in weight, power efficiency, and rugged conditions further underscores its value in demanding applications.
Looking ahead, Ouster actively develops its next-generation Digital Flash (DF) Series, a solid-state LiDAR solution poised to revolutionize automotive and industrial applications. By eliminating moving parts, the DF series promises enhanced reliability, longevity, and cost-efficient mass production, addressing critical needs for autonomous driving and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). This forward-looking innovation, combined with the recent DoD validation, firmly establishes Ouster as a pivotal innovator in the rapidly evolving landscape of autonomous technologies, driving its ambition to capture a substantial share of the $70 billion total addressable market for 3D vision.
LAZR consolidation complete! Strong buy setup!Solid base built over last several weeks.
Consolidation now complete. Ready to run to 12.8$ target likely into March timeframe given today’s breakout above 6.20
Will likely consolidate a bit more after 12.8 is reached, before continuation to 20-22$ buy-side targets later in 2025.
Great longer term swing trade from here!
$OUST possible bump and run reversal bottomIt's not perfect but it may be close. Let's see how it plays out now. I still expect some corrections/check backs if it heads higher, but so far it is playing out nicely.
Disregard the solid diagonal white trend line, not sure what I was trying with that one. Maybe it will be a point of resistance, maybe not.
Relevant fibs of support and resistance also shown.
Two trendlines for the bump and run are drawn (dashed lines) - I'm not quite sure which one is more accurate to be honest.
Had a decent amount of insider buying (IIRC) as well as being driven into the dirt with a low float of ~30M shares...
Still seems undervalued, but what do I know.
Final Notes:
It would be nice to hold $7; if not that, then 6.36 or 5.92. Seems pretty volatile and a potentially good candidate for active trading if you manage risk appropriately.
RSI is turning around on 1hr and lower TF, and it looks like a possible bearish harmonic (crab?) may be on the 15 min.
Looking for possible re-entries around $5-6 if it can retain its upward momentum.
References:
thepatternsite.com
Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Chapter 14.
Big Things in 2023Cepton ( NASDAQ:CPTN ) has been quiet for a few quarters now. Earnings are coming up on May 9th and revenue is expected to increase each quarter to 2024. According to TradingView's Forecast, 3 out of 5 indicate CPTN is a strong buy. The expected revenue growth through Q4 2023 is expected to grow almost 4x from where we are now. What is great, is no one is talking about Cepton. Reddit, TradingView Ideas, and our typical blogs have been radio silence. The current RSI indicates we are likely oversold in the latest dump and have an opportunity to grab a good entry as we head to 2024. With each Automaker investigating how to implement LiDAR solutions in their future product, they will likely need to work with one manufacturer and stick with them due to challenging packaging constraints and system integration work with each LiDAR module. I expect that the contracts that CPTN currently has and future business to be long term revenue generators to help them achieve these revenue targets. As more automakers launch products and reveal future vehicles with autonomous systems utilizing LiDAR, this will be a stock to watch.
Let me know what you think.
MVIS boom incoming?Not a financial advisor.
MVIS had a historic run and made a lot of news headlines last year.
We appear to have seen the bottom and look for a 3 white soldier reversal to confirm the strength upward.
This was one of the best plays for volatility in the market with the price swings. Also had major booms in the market seeing major price increases.
This is certainly one to keep an eye on in Feb. You may never see these price levels ever again.
All indicators are curling up and the Parabolic Sar has flipped bullish. This is one of my personal favorites due to its history of major price spikes. Definitely watchlist worthy.
Lidar, Augmented reality
plenty of eyes will be watching this one closely. I anticipate this to be a headliner again for 2022.
This should be back up to $8 in a matter of weeks.
$INDI heading back to its main support?$INDI did as I expected in my last post on $INDI. Considering the general tax selling sell-off in the market towards the end of the year it is possible that it is headed to its main support area around $11, which is nearly 200SMA today. This is a drastic pullback, but SPACs have not found their firm stepping stone to higher prices yet.
Microvision MVIS Daily - August 2021We've got a clear gap to fill at 12.88. Although it feels like she might go testing the latest 50% swing retrace before coming back down to fill that gap ahead of the live demo in Sept at IAA Mobility. Also keep in mind that they still have another $70m left on the ATM.
MVIS Levels after Q2 EarningsMVIS has been stagnant for a few weeks leading up to these latest Q2 results. The 786 fib line using Q2 lows as the anchor reveal some important levels and this 786 was one of them. It was a prior pivot point that more times than not ended up being support and/or a level of consolidation. It was only until recently that MVIS ended up failing to hold its consolidation trend and slid back. Now that ER are out, not only may 786 area be important but so might the 50 DMA which is right around $14.50 as of today. After hours on 8/4 MVIS briefly traded above that level but almost immediately got rejected. And to think that we were covering this as frequently as we were when it was still a penny stock. It has come a long way.
" There are a few reasons for the massive spike in MVIS stock over that time frame. One of those is its work on LiDAR sensors as well as microchips and various computer-related products.
Right now, there is a major shortage of microprocessors. If we consider basic supply and demand principles, we see that a massive gain for MVIS stock makes sense. However, its LiDAR sensors are also used in self-driving cars, which have become a major focus for Reddit stock investors in the past year or so. The focus from Reddit investors on MVIS is another example of retail traders pushing a stock with a high institutional short interest ..."
Quote Source & Read More: Former Penny Stocks That Exploded in Value, One Up Over 3,500%
Microvision MVIS - Swing Play IdeaOur last weekly candle closed near the top end of the trading range. Also notice there is a potential cup and handle pattern forming here on the weekly chart. This could be a sign that we will soon break out of this current trading range and close a weekly candle above 20.50. We would then be looking to make a new high, in what appears to be a solid longer term uptrend channel(white lines) going on. But in order to do that that, we first need our dip to form the handle of our cup pattern...then of course some volume on this dip. Ideally, I'd be looking to start buying closer to our current 50% retrace level of 17.63, adding heavier as we move closer to the bottom of the cup. I would use Friday's previous high of 23 as the sell trigger, but focusing mainly on the current 1.0 fib extension target near 30, selling heavier as we move closer to the 1.618 extension target near 41. Just keep in mind that we could very easily slip back into the current trading range, with our bottom level sitting near 10.80. We could also just as easily get a news release that quickly sends this to a new high without any dip at all.
*Swing MVIS at your own risk!






















