USDCHF – Liquidity Sweep + FVG Entry (Counter-Trend Long to PDH)Idea:
Price swept previous day’s low (PDL), tapping into an Extreme Daily POI.
We then saw a CHOCH on LTF, confirming rejection.
A clean 5M FVG entry formed, giving a precise long setup.
Bias: Intraday bullish (HTF still bearish).
Entry: 5M FVG inside Daily POI.
SL: Below swept low.
TP1: 2R (partial exit).
TP2: Previous Day High (PDH liquidity magnet).
Notes:
This is a buy-to-sell setup — valid for intraday longs up into PDH, but watch for shorts if HTF structure rejects at PDH.
Liquiditysweep
USDJPY – Dual POI Short Setup🧠 Market Context
Previous Day High swept → liquidity grab complete.
CHoCH → Bearish Intent confirmed → directional bias is short.
Price is now retracing into supply zones for potential continuation lower.
🎯 Key Points of Interest (POIs)
Refined 1H POI
Aligned with highest previous day volume.
Strong institutional confluence.
Extreme 5M FVG (sweep origin)
Cleaner entry with tighter risk.
Aligns with the extreme point of interest logic from liquidity models.
⚖️ Execution Plan
Option A: Scale Entries
Partial entry at 1H POI.
Add position at 5M extreme FVG if price sweeps deeper.
Option B: Confirmation Entries
Wait for LTF BOS / rejection candle inside either POI before execution.
🔽 Bearish Targets
147.037 → Previous Daily Low (Liquidity Zone).
146.582 – 146.600 → Deeper liquidity + imbalance fill.
⚠️ Risk Management
Risk 0.5–1% per setup, split across zones.
Move SL to breakeven once 2R is achieved.
Trail stop following bearish structure.
📊 Summary
USDJPY has shifted to bearish intent after the PDH sweep. Two valid POIs are in play — a volume-backed 1H supply and an extreme 5M FVG.
Best approach: scale into both for higher probability while keeping risk controlled.
💬 What do you think? Would you take the refined 1H POI or wait for the extreme 5M FVG?
USDJPY – Liquidity Sweep & CHoCH → Short SetupUSDJPY shows a clean liquidity play under MY Liquidity MM Trading System:
Price swept liquidity above Friday’s High, triggering buy-side stops.
CHoCH confirmed a bearish shift in orderflow.
Retest into the Supply Zone (OB + Highest Volume Area) offers a short entry.
Targeting liquidity resting at Previous Day’s Low (PDL).
Execution Plan:
Entry: Supply zone retest
Stop: Above Friday’s High for
R:R: 1:2
For tighter stops: Refine entry at top of OB wick + add buffer of 2–3 pips
TP: PDL liquidity pool
R:R ≈ 1:4
XAUUSD Update – Resistance Rejection and Market Structure Shift"XAUUSD Update – Resistance Rejection and Market Structure Shift
Price Action: Gold has recently tested the 3550 – 3600 resistance zone, where the market showed signs of rejection. This level represents a significant supply area formed by previous liquidity grabs.
Market Structure: After a strong bullish impulse, the current price behavior suggests a possible correction phase. The rally left behind areas of imbalance that could attract price back downward.
Key Observation:
The first reaction zone sits around 3480, which aligns with a structural support level from past consolidation.
A deeper correction may extend toward the 3330 – 3320 support region, a critical level where historical demand has been observed.
Context: Liquidity above recent highs has been taken, and the chart now shows potential for retracement to restore balance before determining the next directional move.
XAUUSD Alert | Liquidity Grab or Trend Reversal?”XAUUSD Alert 🚨 | Liquidity Grab or Trend Reversal?”
Gold has recently pushed into the 3525 – 3550 rejection zone, a level that has historically acted as strong supply. After this extended bullish rally, price is now showing early signs of exhaustion. This could be a liquidity grab above resistance before the market corrects lower.
My expectation here is a short-term pullback. The first key area I’ll be watching is around 3450, which lines up with a smaller demand zone and could act as a temporary support. If buyers fail to defend that level, then I expect continuation toward the 3330 – 3320 zone, which is my final target and also a major higher-timeframe support point.
This level is very important because it was previously a strong base for accumulation, and if tested again, it could provide a potential long opportunity. However, if price breaks below 3320 decisively, it would open the door for a much deeper correction.
Overall, my short-term outlook is bearish retracement, but I’ll be closely watching how price reacts once we reach the deeper support levels.
“XAUUSD – Strong Sell Setup from All-Time High Resistance “XAUUSD – Strong Sell Setup from All-Time High Resistance 🚨📉”
Currently, gold has reached a strong resistance zone around 3575 – 3600, where price is showing signs of exhaustion after a strong bullish rally. This area is a key supply zone and could trigger profit-taking or fresh short entries.
From here, I am expecting a potential correction move.
1st Target: Around 3480 – 3450, where we can see a clear demand zone and previous consolidation.
If bearish pressure continues, the price may extend towards the final target at 3330 – 3320, which is also a key support point aligned with previous market structure.
Market structure shows a clear higher low formation earlier, which fueled this rally, but after tapping into resistance, a short-term pullback seems highly likely.
📌 Overall, short-term bias = bearish correction, while long-term trend remains bullish unless price breaks below the 3320 support zone.
How To Capture Market Moves With SMC Suite Indicator?📊 SMC Suite Capturing Market Moves — Order Blocks • Breakers • Liquidity Sweeps • FVG
The chart above shows how the SMC Suite works in live market conditions on BankNifty. By combining Order Blocks, Breaker flips, Liquidity Sweeps, and Fair Value Gaps, the tool highlights where smart money is entering and where reversals are likely to occur.
🔹 Key Highlights from This Chart
1. Order Blocks — Bullish and bearish OBs correctly marked institutional footprints before price reversals.
2. Breaker Blocks — Invalidated OBs flipped into Breakers, giving continuation entries in trend direction.
3. Liquidity Sweeps — Several highs/lows were taken out, followed by reversals back into structure. These sweeps acted as confirmation for later setups.
4. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) — The script marked imbalances that later served as retracement zones. Price respected these gaps, providing clean reversal opportunities.
5. Retest Alerts — Each zone was validated only on retests with optional wick rejection, reducing noise and improving signal quality.
⸻
🔹 Why It Matters
This chart shows that SMC Suite is not just drawing zones randomly — it creates a workflow:
• Sweep liquidity ➝ impulsive displacement ➝ zone creation (OB/Breaker/FVG) ➝ retest confirmation.
This makes it easier to follow institutional logic and align entries with high-probability setups.
📌 Conclusion
From strong downside moves to clean bounces, the SMC Suite captured both continuation setups (Breakers) and reversal setups (OB/FVG retests). The integration of liquidity logic makes it a practical trading tool across indices, forex, and crypto.
Liquidity: The Trap That Powers the Market“The market doesn’t move to reward you.
It moves to hunt those who move without awareness.”
Every beginner asks: “Why did price stop me out before going in my direction?”
The answer is usually one word: Liquidity .
What is Liquidity?
Liquidity is simply where orders are waiting:
Buy stops above a recent high
Sell stops below a recent low
Pending orders around round numbers (like 3400, 3350 in Gold)
These areas are pools of money.
The market needs these pools to fill large institutional orders.
Why Traders Get Trapped
Price breaks above a high → retail traders buy the breakout.
Price dips below a low → retail traders sell the breakdown.
But instead of continuing, price often snaps back .
Why? Because the market just collected those stops — the liquidity it needed — before reversing.
This is why beginners often say:
“Every time I enter, the market goes the other way.”
Sweep vs Grab
Sweep = Price pushes above/below a key level to collect stops. This alone doesn’t mean reversal.
Grab = After the sweep, price rejects and shifts structure (ChoCH/BOS). This confirms intent and often leads to the true move.
Practical Example (Gold)
Suppose Gold makes a high at 3395.
Many traders place buy stops above 3395, expecting a breakout.
Price pushes to 3397 (this is the sweep ), then falls back under 3395.
If structure shifts bearish after that, it becomes a liquidity grab .
The smart entry isn’t the breakout.
It’s after the sweep, when the grab confirms direction.
Trading isn’t about being the first one in.
It’s about being the last one trapped.
Patience protects you from becoming liquidity yourself.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
SUI — Where Liquidity Turns Into OpportunitySUI has been trading sideways for the past 40 days, offering solid swing opportunities both long and short. At the moment, there is one long setup that stands out → the $3.33 zone, where multiple layers of confluence align.
🧩 Confluence Factors: 5
1.0 Trend-Based Fib Extension: $3.3319
Prior Low: $3.3272 → potential liquidity sweep (SSL)
Anchored VWAP: Supporting the zone
Weekly 21 EMA / SMA: Acting as dynamic support
40d Range Context: Range low positioning
🟢 Long Trade Setup
Entry Zone: ~$3.33 (liquidity sweep into support)
Stop-Loss: Below $3.25
Target: Range highs near $4.20
R:R Potential: 1:10+
Note: Wait for bullish confirmation (order flow or strong reaction) before entering.
Technical Insight
The $3.33 level combines liquidity, fib projection, VWAP support, and the weekly 21 EMA/SMA → all pointing to a high-probability reaction zone. In sideways environments, such confluence at range lows often defines pivot points for the next swing move. If defended, upside targets remain the range high around $4.20.
🔍 Indicators used
Multi Timeframe 8x MA Support Resistance Zones → to identify support and resistance zones such as the weekly 21 EMA/SMA.
➡️ Available for free. You can find it on my profile under “Scripts” and apply it directly to your charts for extra confluence when planning your trades.
_________________________________
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Huntin Wabbits - PalantirWill be using this chart to guide re-entries into palantir.
Immediately watching the $161 - $169 area.
Then $145-$126 if seen.
If S&P gets a good fuckening down the road, then I would like to begin DCAing into $126.
None of this is financial advice.
I'm just a guy with an interest and a celcius addiction.
~The Villain
SUI/USDT – Smart Money Accumulation at Key Demand Zone📊 SUI/USDT – Smart Money Accumulation at Key Demand Zone | Bullish Outlook Ahead 🚀
The current SUI/USDT structure highlights a textbook Smart Money accumulation phase playing out at a key support zone, following a clear impulse–pullback–lower high formation.
🔍 Key Technical Insights:
🔻 Lower Highs Formation: A strong bearish structure led price back into the previous demand zone, sweeping liquidity below the support.
🎭 Fake Break Identified: Price action broke below the support briefly, indicating a liquidity grab (stop-hunt), often a precursor to bullish reversals.
🌀 Volume Node Alignment: Strong volume interest is building at the current support area, adding confluence for potential accumulation.
⚡ Projection Path: If the demand holds, expect a potential bullish reversal, targeting the previous resistance zone between 14–15B.
🧠 SMC Concepts in Play:
Fake Breakout = Liquidity Sweep
Impulse Leg = Institutional Activity
Pullback = Re-Entry for Smart Money
📈 Bullish Scenario:
Watch for confirmation around the support zone (~11B). A higher low or bullish engulfing pattern could trigger a rally toward 14B–15B resistance.
🛑 Bearish Invalidator:
A clean break and close below the 11B zone would invalidate the current bullish thesis.
Ethereum (ETH/USDT) – Midline Break Retest and Channel Top in Si🔍 Technical Overview
Ethereum has recently broken above the midline of its descending channel, indicating a potential bullish shift within the short-term corrective structure. The price action suggests that we are currently witnessing a retest of the broken midline, which is now acting as dynamic support.
This behavior is consistent with smart money principles — where a previously broken internal structure gets tested before continuation.
⸻
🧠 NEoWave Context
Structurally, ETH appears to be developing a Contracting Corrective pattern, with the current leg likely evolving as Wave D. This wave typically exhibits strength and complexity, often stretching toward the channel top while still respecting broader consolidation boundaries.
⸻
💡 Smart Money Insights
• ✅ BOS already confirmed on LTF (1H, 4H) with higher lows
• 🔄 Price has reclaimed the internal broken structure (midline) and is retesting it
• 🔋 Bullish OB around $3,480–$3,510 acted as a launch zone for current leg
• 📍 Next resistance is the channel top near $3,740
⸻
📊 Trade Scenarios
🟩 Bullish Scenario (Preferred):
If the retest of the midline holds, ETH is likely to continue its move toward the upper boundary of the descending channel (~$3,730–$3,750). This aligns with Wave D expectations in complex corrections.
🟥 Bearish Invalidations:
A breakdown back below $3,520 and loss of the internal bullish structure would negate this short-term bullish scenario and reopen downside potential toward $3,350.
⸻
⚠️ Trader Tip:
Retests of internal structures like midlines or internal trendlines often provide low-risk continuation setups — if confirmed by bullish internal BOS.
⸻
✅ Conclusion
Ethereum remains technically corrective but with bullish momentum building within the channel. As long as the midline holds, we expect continuation toward the channel top, completing Wave D structure before potential reversal.
💬 Drop your alt counts or thoughts in the comments.
XAUUSD Smart Money Technical Analysis – Bullish Potential XAUUSD Smart Money Technical Analysis – Bullish Potential from Strong Support
Gold (XAUUSD) is currently trading around $3,291.780, showing a potential bullish reversal setup from the strong support zone after a clear liquidity sweep and market structure shifts.
🔍 Key Technical Highlights:
✅ Strong Support Zone (Demand)
Price is reacting from a major demand zone (Strong Low) between $3,275 – $3,225, a level that previously triggered bullish rallies.
Multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) and CHoCH indicate previous bullish control and a possible re-accumulation phase.
✅ CHoCH Near Support
A recent Change of Character (CHoCH) around the support area shows the first signs of smart money accumulation.
Liquidity below recent lows has been swept, triggering possible bullish intent.
✅ Bullish FVG (Fair Value Gap)
A clear Bullish FVG remains unmitigated around the mid-range, offering target confluence at $3,349.560.
Price may aim to rebalance inefficiency and fill the FVG as part of the bullish move.
✅ Resistance Zone Above
The resistance area near $3,325 – $3,350 acts as a short-term target for long positions.
Further resistance lies at the Buy-Side Liquidity & Weak High zone around $3,450 if momentum sustains.
🧠 Smart Money Concept Interpretation:
Liquidity Grab: Price dipped into strong demand to collect sell-side liquidity before potential reversal.
CHoCH + BOS Alignment: Indicates the market may now transition into a bullish phase.
FVG as Magnet: Price is drawn toward unfilled value zones—ideal for bullish target projection.
🎯 Trade Idea (Educational Purposes Only):
Bias: Bullish
Entry: Around current zone ($3,290)
Target: $3,349.560 (FVG zone)
Invalidation/SL: Below strong low (~$3,225)
Inside a Candle: How to Read Hidden Order Flow Without a DOM
Difficulty: 🐳🐳🐳🐋🐋 (Intermediate+)
This article is for traders who want to understand the “story” behind a candle’s shape — and learn to spot aggressive buying/selling, absorption, and traps without needing footprint or order book tools.
🔵 INTRODUCTION
Most traders see candles as static shapes — green or red, big or small. But each candle is a battlefield of orders . Even without access to a DOM or volume footprint, you can still extract valuable information from just the candle's body, wick, and context .
🔵 ORIGINS: WHERE CANDLESTICKS COME FROM
Candlestick charts trace back to 18th-century Japan, where rice traders needed a way to visualize price movements over time. A legendary trader named Munehisa Homma , who traded rice futures in Osaka, is credited with developing the earliest form of candlestick analysis.
Homma discovered that price wasn’t just driven by supply and demand — but also by trader psychology . He created visual representations of market sentiment by tracking:
The opening and closing price of rice
The highest and lowest price reached during the session
This system became known as the “Sakata rules,” and it laid the foundation for many patterns still used today — such as Doji, Engulfing, and Marubozu.
Western traders only began using candlesticks widely in the 1990s, when analyst Steve Nison introduced them to the broader financial world through his book Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques.
Today, candlesticks remain one of the most powerful and intuitive ways to visualize order flow, momentum, and market psychology — even without a Depth of Market (DOM) or depth of book.
In this article, you’ll learn how to read hidden order flow by analyzing:
Wick length and positioning
Body-to-range ratios
Candle clustering and sequences
🔵 HOW A CANDLE FORMS
Before you can read a candle, you need to understand how it comes to life . A single candle represents the full auction process during its time window.
Here’s how it builds, step by step:
Candle opens — this is the open price .
As price moves up during the session → the high] updates.
As price moves down → the low] updates.
The final traded price when the time closes → this becomes the close price .
The wick = price areas that were tested but rejected
The body = where the majority of aggressive trades occurred
If buyers push price up quickly but sellers slam it down before the close — the candle will have a long upper wick and close near the open, revealing seller absorption.
Understanding this flow helps you recognize traps, fakeouts, and reversals in real time.
🔵 CANDLE BODY: WHO'S IN CONTROL
The body of the candle reflects the result of the battle between buyers and sellers. A wide body with minimal wicks means dominance and commitment.
Big body, small wick → clear conviction
In an uptrend: buyer aggression
In a downtrend: panic or aggressive selling
Small body, long wicks → indecision, absorption, or trap
Often appears near tops/bottoms
Indicates both sides were active but neither won clearly
www.tradingview.com
🔵 WICKS: THE SHADOWS OF REJECTION
Wicks are not just “leftovers” — they show where price was rejected after being tested.
Long upper wick = seller presence or absorption at highs
Long lower wick = buyer defense or trap spring
Double wick = liquidity sweep / false breakout
Use wick direction to spot:
Failed breakouts
Smart money traps
Exhaustion candles
🔵 HIDDEN ORDER FLOW PATTERNS
1️⃣ Absorption Candle
A large wick with little movement afterward — shows that big orders absorbed market pressure.
2️⃣ Trap Candle
A candle that sweeps above/below a key high/low and closes opposite — classic smart money fakeout.
3️⃣ Imbalance Candle
Large-bodied candle that closes near the high/low with no wick on the other end — implies one-sided aggression (and often leaves an imbalance).
🔵 CLUSTERING & SEQUENCES MATTER
Never read a candle alone. The sequence of candles tells the full story:
3+ rejection wicks near resistance? Liquidity building before breakout or trap
Bearish engulfing after long upper wick = smart money selling into retail buying
Tight-range dojis + volume spike = compression before expansion
Context + volume + structure = hidden flow decoded.
🔵 PUTTING IT TOGETHER: A REAL EXAMPLE
Price breaks above previous high
Candle closes with long upper wick and smaller body
Next candle opens, dumps fast, leaving imbalance behind
Buyers trapped — move likely to continue down
This is how you read order flow from candle anatomy .
🔵 TIPS FOR MASTERY
Use a lower timeframe (1M–5M) to see microstructure
Watch how wicks behave near S/R or OBs
Confirm with volume spikes or delta-style indicators
Use replay mode to slow down the story and study cause/effect
🔵 CONCLUSION
Every candle is a message. You don’t need expensive tools to read order flow — just your eyes, context, and curiosity.
Learn to see candles not as symbols, but as evidence of behavior . Absorption, imbalance, and traps are all visible if you look closely.
BTC/USD – Strong Buy Opportunity from Demand Zone BTC/USD – Strong Buy Opportunity from Demand Zone
🟢 Technical Outlook:
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has tapped into a well-defined Demand Zone near 115,000–116,000, showing early signs of a potential bullish reversal. This level aligns with key liquidity zones, smart money concepts, and price inefficiencies — offering high-probability long setups.
🧠 Key Technical Highlights:
🔻 Equal Lows + Sell-Side Liquidity:
Market swept equal lows, grabbing liquidity below support — a common institutional setup before a bullish push.
✅ Break of Structure (BOS):
A prior BOS indicates a shift from bearish to bullish structure after liquidity collection.
📉 Fair Value Gap (FVG):
Price created and respected an FVG after the BOS, validating bullish intent.
📊 Imbalance Filled:
A prior price inefficiency has now been filled, completing a clean move from imbalance back into structure.
📈 Target Zone: 119,000 USD
Marked as the logical next stop — sitting near prior resistance and a liquidity zone.
🎓 Educational Insight:
This is a textbook Smart Money Concept scenario:
Sell-side liquidity sweep
Demand zone tap
Imbalance rebalancing
Shift in market structure
It shows how institutions often engineer liquidity grabs before a large directional move.
USDCHF Technical Analysis – Potential Rejection from Resistance USDCHF Technical Analysis – Potential Rejection from Resistance
🔍 Chart Overview:
Current Price: 0.80456
Resistance Zone: 0.80760 – 0.81009
Support Zone: 0.79000 – 0.79236
Price Action: The pair has rallied into a strong resistance zone but is showing signs of exhaustion.
📌 Key Observations:
Volume Profile Insight:
Price has entered a low-volume area near resistance, indicating potential weakness in demand above 0.80800.
Resistance Rejection:
Price tested the 0.80760–0.81009 resistance range and failed to break through decisively.
A potential fake breakout or bull trap could be forming.
Bearish Projection:
If price confirms rejection from resistance, we may see a drop toward the support zone (0.79000 – 0.79236).
This would complete a classic resistance-to-support rotation.
Bearish Confirmation:
A bearish candle formation or break below 0.80350 can trigger short entries.
Ideal risk-reward favors a short setup here.
📉 Trade Plan (Educational Purpose Only):
Entry Zone: 0.80750 – 0.80950
Stop Loss: Above 0.81100
Take Profit Target: 0.79250
Risk-Reward: Approx. 1:2.5
🔻 Summary:
USDCHF is trading near a major resistance zone with weak bullish momentum. If confirmed, a sharp reversal toward support is expected, making this a potentially strong short opportunity.
BTC Breaks Structure After Liquidity Grab! Massive Move Loading…BTC/USD Technical Analysis – July 25, 2025
Structure Overview:
The current BTC/USD price action showcases a classic market structure shift, with multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS), liquidity grabs, and a clear intent to revisit premium pricing zones. The chart follows a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, identifying key supply and demand areas.
Key Highlights:
🔹 Break of Structure (BOS):
Several BOS events indicate momentum shifts and short-term trend reversals. The most recent BOS near the support zone suggests a potential bullish move after liquidity sweep.
🔹 Sell-Side Liquidity & Equal Lows:
BTC swept the Equal Low level near $114,000, triggering Sell-side Liquidity. This liquidity grab is often a manipulative move by institutional players to collect orders before driving price higher.
🔹 Support Zone:
The support zone near $114,900–$114,000 is holding strong. Price wicked into this area, collected liquidity, and reacted with bullish intent.
🔹 Bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG):
A Bearish FVG exists around $117,500–$118,000, which may act as short-term resistance. Price could partially fill this gap before resuming direction.
🔹 Target Zone:
Projected target lies at $119,637, aligning with the prior resistance zone and offering a high-probability area for price delivery based on the current bullish market structure.
🔹 Volume Profile Support:
The volume profile suggests high volume accumulation in the current range, further supporting the possibility of a bullish expansion phase.
Forecast Summary:
Bias: Bullish (Short-term)
Entry Zone: Confirmed after BOS and liquidity sweep near support
Target: $119,637 (resistance zone)
Invalidation Level: Sustained break below $114,000
⚠️ Risk Note:
A rejection from the Bearish FVG or failure to break above $117,800 may cause a deeper pullback. Monitor reactions around key levels before continuation.
PENGU Topping Out? Targeting 30% Downside After Liquidity SweepPENGU has had an explosive run, but it now looks to be nearing completion of wave 5 of its current Elliott impulse.
We’re approaching a key high at $0.04698, a likely liquidity grab zone — and potentially a great area to position for a short trade.
🧩 Short Setup Overview
➡️ Wave 5 Completion Incoming:
Price is showing signs of exhaustion as it approaches $0.04698, where liquidity is likely stacked above the previous high.
➡️ SFP Trigger Zone:
Watch for a swing failure pattern (SFP) at $0.04698 — confirmation for a potential short entry.
➡️ Psychological Resistance:
The $0.05 level also sits just above — a classic psychological barrier that may get tapped or wicked into.
🔴 Short Trade Setup
Entry: After a confirmed SFP at $0.04698–$0.05
Target (TP): Yearly Open (yOpen) — potential move of ~30%
Stop-loss: Above post-SFP high
R:R: Excellent asymmetry if setup confirms
🛠 Indicator Note
In this analysis I'm using my own indicator called "DriftLine - Pivot Open Zones ", which I recently published.
✅ It helps highlight key open levels, support/resistance zones, and price structure shifts — all critical for confluence-based trade planning.
Feel free to check it out — you can use it for free by heading to my profile under the “Scripts” tab.
💡 Educational Insight: How to Trade Wave 5 Liquidity Sweeps
Wave 5 tops often trap late longs, especially when paired with psychological levels and key highs.
➡️ Patience is key — wait for a rejection pattern or SFP before entering.
➡️ Liquidity sweeps first — then the move.
Final Thoughts
PENGU is pushing toward $0.04698–$0.05, but this may be its final move up before correction.
With the yearly open as a logical target, and clear confluence via DriftLine, this setup offers a clean short opportunity — if confirmation comes.
Stay sharp, let price lead, and trade the reaction — not the prediction.
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XLM Explodes +132% — Is the Party Over or Just Starting?XLM has been one of the top movers, sweeping the January 2025 swing high at $0.515 before stalling and moving sideways for the past 4 days.
Is XLM gearing up for another push toward the highs, or is a correction imminent?
Let’s dive into the details.
🧩 Market Structure & Fractal Pattern
XLM skyrocketed +132% in just 13 days, mirroring the explosive move seen back in November 2024.
If we apply the November fractal, the current price action suggests we could be setting up for an ABC corrective move.
📉 Key Levels & Confluences
FVG Zone: ~$0.49–$0.50 — likely to be swept before any major move down.
Monthly Support: $0.4142
Key Level / Liquidity Pool: $0.4056 — likely cluster of stop-losses.
Anchored VWAP (from $0.2228 start of trend): currently near $0.4056, adding strong confluence.
1.0 Trend-Based Fib Extension (ABC projection): If price pushes to ~$0.49 to complete wave B, the projected 1.0 TBFE for wave C lands right on the $0.4056 key level + VWAP, creating a perfect confluence zone.
➡️ Conclusion: The $0.4142–$0.4056 zone is a critical support and liquidity area with multiple confluences lining up.
Trade Setups
🔴 Short Setup:
Entry zone: $0.48–$0.50 (ladder in)
Stop-loss: Above $0.5166 (prior high)
Take-profit: $0.4142–$0.4056 zone
R:R ≈ 1:3
🟢 Long Setup:
Entry zone: $0.4142–$0.4056 (preferably near VWAP)
Stop-loss: Below $0.395
Take-profit: $0.44
⚡ Final Thoughts
Watch for a potential final push toward $0.49–$0.50 before a corrective wave unfolds.
The confluence at the $0.4142–$0.4056 zone — including monthly/weekly levels, VWAP, liquidity pool, and the 1.0 TBFE target — makes it a key area for decision-making.
Stay patient and wait for confirmation at these levels. Will post an update as things unfold!
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Liquidity ≠ Volume: The Truth Most Traders Never Learn█ Liquidity ≠ Volume: The Truth Most Traders Never Learn
Most traders obsess over volume bars, but volume is the footprint, not the path forward.
If you’ve ever seen price explode with no volume or fail despite strong volume, you’ve witnessed liquidity in action.
█ Here’s what you need to know
⚪ Volume Is Reactive — Liquidity Is Predictive
Volume tells you what happened.
Liquidity tells you what can happen.
█ Scenario 1: Price Jumps on Low Volume
❝ A price can jump on low volume if no liquidity exists above.❞
⚪ What’s happening?
The order book is thin above the current price (i.e., few or no sellers).
Even a small market buy order clears out available asks and pushes price up multiple levels.
Volume is low, but the impact is high because there’s no resistance.
⚪ Implication:
This is called a liquidity vacuum.
It can happen before news, during rebalancing, before session openings, on illiquid instruments, or during off-hours.
Traders often overestimate the strength of the move because they only see the candle, not the absence of offers behind it.
█ Scenario 2: Move Fails on High Volume
❝ A move can fail on high volume if it runs into a wall of offers or bids.❞
⚪ What’s happening?
There’s a strong surge of aggressive buying or selling (high volume).
But the order book has deep liquidity at that level — large resting limit orders.
The aggressive traders can’t chew through the liquidity wall, and price stalls or reverses.
⚪ Implication:
This is called liquidity absorption.
Market makers or institutions may intentionally absorb flow to stop a breakout.
Many retail traders mistake this for “fakeouts,” but it’s really liquidity defending a level.
⚪ What the Research Says
Cont, Stoikov, Talreja (2014): Price responds more to order book imbalance than trade volume.
Bouchaud et al. (2009): Liquidity gaps, not trade size, are what truly move markets.
Hasbrouck (1991): Trades only impact price if they consume liquidity.
Institutions don’t chase candles — they model depth, imbalance, and liquidity resilience.
⚪ Where the Alpha Lives
Liquidity tells you where the market is weak, strong, or vulnerable — before price moves.
Fakeouts happen in thin books.
Reversals occur at hidden walls of liquidity.
Breakouts sustain when liquidity follows the price, not pulls away.
If you understand this, you can:
Enter before volume shows up
Avoid chasing dead breakouts
Fade failed moves into empty space
█ Final Truth
Volume is the echo. Liquidity is the terrain. Alpha is in reading the terrain. You want to study the structure, because price moves toward weakness and away from strength. Learn to see where liquidity is, or where it’s missing, and you’ll see trading with new eyes.
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Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
EURUSD Analysis : Liquidity Sweep – EURUSD Targets TO Reversal🧠 Institutional Context & Big Picture
EURUSD has been in a tightly controlled descending channel for several weeks—a classic sign of a market being engineered for liquidity collection. Rather than a naturally trending bearish market, this price action reflects stealth accumulation and market maker manipulation.
The channel structure was used to:
Establish a visible bearish trend (to trap sellers)
Trigger emotional bias for continued shorting
Build up stop orders below swing lows
This phase was about building energy, not continuation.
🔍 Detailed Breakdown of the Chart Elements
📌 1. Descending Channel – Controlled Manipulation
The pair moved within a well-defined bearish channel for multiple weeks.
Each touch respected the top and bottom perfectly—not random, but institutional structure.
It fostered retail confidence in the downtrend while market makers prepared for a reversal.
💥 2. Liquidity Sweep & Trap (Low Breaked & Liquidity Grabbed)
Price spiked below the previous low, clearly sweeping liquidity on July 21.
This is the "engineered breakdown", meant to trigger breakout sellers and stop out early longs.
Immediately after the sweep, the price violently reversed—clear evidence of a liquidity trap.
This is classic MMC logic: induce, trap, reverse.
🟩 3. QFL Base Formed – Bullish Engine Ignited
At the point of reversal, the chart shows the formation of a QFL (Qualified Liquidation Failure) zone.
This QFL base is the core of smart money accumulation—price broke below a base, then quickly reclaimed it.
It's not just support—it’s the true origin of the reversal and an optimal entry point.
📈 4. Breakout from the Channel – Structure Shift Confirmed
Price broke out of the descending channel with strong momentum, confirming:
Structure shift from lower lows → higher highs
Momentum shift in favor of bulls
Entry confirmation for MMC-based long setups
This breakout invalidates the bearish trend and signals a fresh leg up, likely toward unmitigated supply zones.
🟨 5. Current Price Action – Healthy Bullish Consolidation
After the breakout, price is consolidating just above the broken channel, forming a mini-flag or base.
This indicates:
Smart money is accumulating more
No significant selling pressure
Likely continuation toward next supply
🎯 6. Next Targets – Reversal Zones
Minor Resistance: ~1.1800
Major Resistance: ~1.1850 – 1.1880
Next Reversal Zone: 1.1900–1.1950
This zone is highlighted as a potential sell-off area where institutions may offload positions or create new traps.
Watch for signs of exhaustion or redistribution here.
📌 Trade Plan Based on MMC Structure
✅ Bullish Scenario (Currently Active)
Entry Area: Ideally at QFL base or breakout retest (~1.1700–1.1720 zone)
Confirmation: Bullish price action (engulfing, flag break, or liquidity wick)
Targets:
🎯 TP1: 1.1800
🎯 TP2: 1.1850
🎯 TP3: 1.1950 (Reversal Supply Zone)
❌ Invalidation:
A break below the QFL base (~1.1670) with bearish volume would invalidate the bullish MMC structure.
🧠 Smart Money Insight & Logic Recap
This entire move reflects a classic Market Maker Strategy:
Build a trend (descending channel) to shape trader bias
Trigger liquidity events (false breakdown)
Accumulate at the lows via QFL logic
Shift structure (channel breakout)
Target unfilled institutional supply (1.1850–1.1950)
This isn’t random—it’s engineered movement. Your job as a trader is to identify footprints, not follow the crowd.
BTCUSD Technical Analysis | Smart Money Concept (SMC) BreakdownBTCUSD Technical Analysis | Smart Money Concept (SMC) Breakdown
🧠 Smart Money Market Structure Insight
📌 Key Elements Identified:
BOS (Break of Structure): Multiple BOS points indicate bullish intent early on. However, the latest BOS on July 14 followed by a significant drop signals a shift in momentum—possibly a distribution phase.
Liquidity Sweep: Price swept prior equal lows/liquidity before reversing, a typical Smart Money trap setup.
FVG (Fair Value Gap) / Imbalance: Identified around the mid-section of the chart—price filled partially but failed to hold, suggesting internal weakness.
Strong Support Zone (Demand Area): Marked between 115,000 - 114,640; this zone is anticipated to act as a springboard for bullish reversal.
📉 Current Price Action Observation:
BTCUSD is hovering around 118,152 - 118,560, moving sideways with lower highs indicating compression.
Price is projected to form a "W" pattern or double bottom in the shaded region.
Expected liquidity grab beneath 115,902 followed by potential bullish reaction targeting 121,562, as indicated by the white arrow.
🧩 Strategic Outlook & Potential Play:
🔻 Bearish Sweep First:
Market likely to sweep the support one more time, tapping into deeper liquidity pools between 115,000–114,640.
This is aligned with the concept of Smart Money hunting for retail stop-losses before reversing.
🔼 Bullish Recovery After Sweep:
Strong probability of bounce due to presence of:
Fair Value Gap (already tested),
Fresh demand zone,
Liquidity grab setup.
Projected Bullish Target: 121,562
Confirmation Needed: A strong bullish engulfing or BOS on lower timeframes near support.
🏷️ Conclusion:
This BTCUSD setup is a textbook Smart Money scenario: BOS ➝ Liquidity Grab ➝ FVG ➝ Reversal from Demand. Traders should wait for confirmation from the support region before entering long positions.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis | Smart Money Perspective🧠 NZD/USD Technical Analysis | Smart Money Perspective
On the current NZD/USD chart, price is trading around 0.5960, positioned between a clearly defined resistance zone (0.6130–0.6150) and a support zone (0.5890–0.5900).
We can observe the following key technical elements:
🔹 1. Liquidity Sweep
Price recently broke below the previous swing low near 0.5900, tapping into a pool of sell-side liquidity. This movement is commonly interpreted as a liquidity grab, where institutions manipulate price to trigger retail stop losses before reversing.
🔹 2. Double Bottom Formation
The chart indicates a potential double bottom forming at the support level — a classic accumulation signal. This pattern suggests buyers may be stepping in after liquidity has been taken out, anticipating a reversal.
🔹 3. Fair Value Gap (FVG)
An FVG (imbalance) is visible in the range of 0.5985 to 0.6015. This inefficiency was created by a sharp bearish move, leaving price action unbalanced. Price is now expected to retrace into this area to rebalance orders — a common smart money behavior.
🔹 4. Market Structure Outlook
If the double bottom confirms with a bullish break of structure above 0.5980, we could expect a continuation toward:
First Target: FVG zone around 0.6015
Second Target: Major resistance near 0.6150, where past distribution occurred.
✅ Conclusion
This setup combines key smart money concepts:
Liquidity grab below support
Accumulation phase at demand
FVG as target
Potential bullish market structure shift
Traders should monitor price action around the support zone for confirmation (e.g., bullish engulfing or break of short-term highs) before entering long positions. Targets remain at the FVG and resistance zones, but risk management is essential in case of a deeper sweep or macroeconomic catalyst.