BTC returns to support zone, bullish reactionBTC/USD Analysis (4H timeframe)
Bitcoin continues to trade within a descending wedge structure, suggesting a potential accumulation phase before a possible bullish breakout. The market is currently reacting near the lower boundary of the pattern, showing signs of support around the 106,300–107,000 zone.
1. Market Structure
Price remains trapped between the wedge’s lower trendline support and the descending upper resistance. Each rejection from the upper boundary has been met with strong buying interest at the lower support, indicating that buyers are still defending this level.
The overall structure shows higher lows forming within the wedge, which could be a bullish signal if confirmed by a strong rebound.
2. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate support: 106,300–107,000
Secondary support: 103,400 (major liquidity zone and previous swing low)
First resistance: 113,800–114,000 (near descending trendline and EMA confluence)
Second resistance: 116,300–116,500 (major breakout zone)
3. EMA Confluence
The 34, 89, and 200 EMAs are currently stacked above price, acting as dynamic resistance. A clean breakout and candle close above these EMAs would confirm a shift in momentum and likely trigger a move toward the 113,800–116,300 targets.
4. Possible Scenarios
Bullish Scenario:
If BTC holds above 106,300 and rebounds with strong bullish candles, price could retest 113,800, followed by 116,300. A breakout above 116,300 would confirm a bullish reversal and open room toward 120,000+.
Bearish Scenario:
A clear breakdown below 106,300 could lead to a deeper retracement toward 103,400 before a possible rebound.
