U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – 1H Technical AnalysisU.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – 1H Technical Analysis
Timeframe: 1-Hour Chart
1. Market Structure Overview
The DXY is currently trading around 96.83, following a clear rejection from major higher-timeframe resistance near 97.80–98.00. Price has transitioned from a bullish structure into a short-term bearish phase after:
A double rejection at the main resistance zone
A confirmed breakout failure above prior resistance (~97.20)
A subsequent Change of Character (CHoCH) signaling momentum shift
The broader structure shows distribution at highs and a controlled decline toward key support.
2. Key Technical Zones
🔵 Main Resistance: 97.75 – 98.00
Strong supply zone
Multiple rejections (circled areas)
Likely institutional distribution
Remains valid until clean breakout and sustained acceptance above
🔵 Intermediate Resistance: ~97.20
Prior breakout level turned resistance
Clean rejection after retest
Now acting as short-term upside target
🟢 Main Support: 96.30 – 96.50
Higher-timeframe demand zone
Recent bullish reaction (long lower wick + impulse bounce)
Currently defending downside
3. Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Perspective
FVG (Fair Value Gap) formed during previous bullish leg — later mitigated.
Break of Structure (BOS) occurred to the downside after resistance rejection.
CHoCH confirms short-term bullish attempt after support reaction.
Liquidity likely rests:
Below 96.30 (sell-side liquidity)
Above 97.20 (buy-side liquidity)
Market appears to be in a range compression phase between 96.40 and 97.20 before expansion.
4. Current Price Behavior
Price is consolidating above main support after a sharp rebound. The structure suggests:
Short-term accumulation near support
Potential liquidity sweep toward 96.40 before expansion
Compression pattern often precedes impulsive move
Momentum is neutral-to-slightly bullish on lower timeframe after support defense.
5. Trading Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Preferred While Above 96.30)
Potential dip into 96.40–96.50 (liquidity grab)
Bullish confirmation on lower timeframe
Target 1: 97.00
Target 2: 97.20 (range high / resistance)
Extended target: 97.75 (main resistance)
Invalidation: Sustained break and close below 96.30.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
If 96.30 breaks decisively:
Liquidity flush toward 96.00–95.80
Continuation of short-term bearish structure
Broader correction within higher timeframe distribution
6. Conclusion
The DXY is trading inside a defined range between 96.30 (support) and 97.20 (resistance) after rejecting major higher-timeframe supply at 98.00.
Current structure favors a short-term bullish retracement toward 97.20, provided support continues to hold. However, the broader context still reflects distribution near major resistance, meaning upside may remain corrective unless 97.75–98.00 is reclaimed.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The information presented is based on technical analysis and market structure interpretation at the time of writing. Financial markets involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.
Long