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MARKETS week ahead: February 2 – 8Last week in the news Quite an interesting week is behind us. The Fed did not make any changes in the level of interest rates, as expected, while the US President nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. The US Dollar continued to lose in value, however, the most interesting development was with the price of gold and silver, which dropped on Friday by 16% and 30% respectively, after reaching the newest ATH this year. Gold closed the week at $4.865. The S&P500 managed to mark the 7K level, however, dropped for the rest of the week, closing it at 6.939. US 10Y Treasuries tested shortly the 4,2% level, but closed the week at 4,24%. At the same time, drop in the crypto market continued, with BTC dropping below the $80K support during Saturdays trading. On the US macro front, the U.S. trade deficit continued to widen in November, reaching $56.8 billion, compared with market expectations of $40.5 billion. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index remained elevated, with PPI rising 0.5% m/m in December, pushing the annual rate to 3.0% y/y. Core PPI accelerated to 3.3% y/y, exceeding forecasts, as headline and core readings both came in above expectations of 0.2% m/m and 2.9% y/y, respectively. President Donald Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, to serve as the next Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, pending Senate confirmation. Warsh previously served on the Fed’s board from 2006 to 2011 and brings extensive experience in monetary policy and financial markets. His selection by Trump has generally reassured investors concerned about the central bank’s independence, with markets reacting to the prospect of stable leadership at the Fed. However, his nomination faces political hurdles in the Senate, where some lawmakers have signalled opposition tied to ongoing investigations. Warsh’s views on policy and rate direction will be closely watched as markets price in expectations for future interest rates and monetary strategy. Microsoft shares plunged sharply on January 29, retracing nearly 12% in a single session as investors questioned the company’s massive spending on artificial intelligence and the pace of cloud growth. Despite beating earnings expectations and reporting strong revenue, the market focused on a 66% surge in AI-related capital expenditures, which raised doubts about near-term profitability and return on investment. This marked one of Microsoft’s biggest one-day drops in years and underscored growing scepticism about whether AI spending will translate into sustainable financial gains. The White House plans to host top executives from major banks and cryptocurrency companies early next week to try to resolve disagreements holding up key U.S. crypto legislation. The talks, organized by the administration’s crypto policy council, will focus on contentious provisions in the stalled Clarity Act, especially those governing whether crypto firms can offer interest or rewards on stablecoin holdings. Banks argue that unrestricted stablecoin yields could drain deposits and threaten financial stability, while crypto firms say such features are essential for competitiveness. CRYPTO MARKET The risk-off sentiment continues to hold on the crypto market. During the week, total crypto capitalisation was trying to hold grounds, however, the break during the Saturdays trading session broke the supporting level and led capitalization toward significantly lower grounds. During the time of writing this report, the correction was modestly on hold, however, it could not be with certainty noted that the correction is finalized for the weekend. At this moment, total crypto market capitalisation decreased by 12,6% w/w with an outflow of $377B on a weekly basis. Daily trading volumes were increased to the level of $233B compared to $159B traded a week before. Total market capitalization since the beginning of this year currently stands in a negative territory of -11%, with a total outflow of -$333B. Although BTC was leading the total capital outflow in nominal terms, still altcoins marked a significantly higher drop. At this moment BTC is down by 12,4% w/w, with an outflow of $221B. ETH had a higher drop of 19%, and outflow of $67B. The vast majority of other altcoins had a drop in value around 20% w/w. Theta was down by 28%, DASH dropped by 33%. Among majors, Solana, ZCash, ADA all lost around 20% w/w. Interestingly, Tron managed to drop by only 3,4%, while Maker dropped by 10%. This week there were no weekly winners among altcoins. Regarding coins in circulation, this week Polkadot increased the total number of circulating coins by 0,6%, Stellar by 0,4%. This week Filecoin increased its number of coins on the market by 0,3%. DOGE, Avalanche, DASH, ZCash and Solana had an increase of coins by 0,1%. Crypto futures market Bitcoin futures extended their downside move, with another decisive weekly sell-off across the curve. Near-dated January 2026 futures declined 7.26% to settle at $83,005, while most other listed maturities posted losses clustered around 6.4%. Longer-dated contracts out to December 2027 closed at $94,230. Despite the sharp correction, the futures curve remains upward sloping, indicating that longer-term price expectations continue to exceed front-end levels. The relatively even distribution of losses across maturities points to broad-based risk reduction rather than stress concentrated in any specific segment of the curve. Ether futures also remained under pressure, recording weekly declines of roughly 9% across most maturities, with January 2026 settling at $2,728. Losses were slightly more pronounced in the front and belly of the curve, while longer-dated contracts out to December 2027 closed at $3,088. Compared with Bitcoin, Ether continues to exhibit higher downside volatility, reinforcing its sensitivity during risk-off phases. Nevertheless, the Ether futures curve remains in contagion, suggesting that longer-term sentiment has weakened but not reversed. Overall, the week was marked by continued deleveraging across crypto futures markets, with both Bitcoin and Ether experiencing synchronized declines. Ether once again underperformed on a volatility-adjusted basis, while the persistence of contagion across both curves indicates that longer-term expectations remain constructive despite the ongoing near-term pressure.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: January 26 – 31Last week in the news There are a lot of fundamental topics which shaped investors sentiment during the previous week. A meeting in Davos at the World Economic Forum and a speech of the U.S. President, announcements of additional trade tariffs with Canada and the European Union, and the generally unstable geopolitical situation in the world are all making investors unsure regarding potential impact on the US and world economy. Markets continue to respond with high volatility. The demand for gold and silver continues to be at its highest ever level, pushing the price of gold toward the levels modestly below the $5K while silver reached its $100 peak. The equity markets dropped at the beginning of the week, following modest recovery, where S&P 500 managed to close the week at 6.915. The US 10Y Treasury yields broke the 4,2% level and headed toward the 4,3%. High-risk assets suffered funds outflow, with BTC dropping below the $90K level, but still managed to hold it as of the end of the week. U.S. macro data posted during the week showed the final estimate of Q3 GDP growth was revised higher to 4.4%, up from the prior 3.8% reading and in line with consensus forecasts. Fed's favourite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index for November rose 0.2% on the month and 2.8% year over year, matching both core PCE and market expectations. Personal Income increased by 0.3% in November, while Personal Spending advanced by 0.5%, pointing to continued consumer resilience. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, January 28th. As per CME Fed WatchTool current odds are 95% that the Fed will hold interest rates at current levels. Trade tariffs are again in the news. The U.S. President announced potential 10% tariffs, increasing to 25% till July in case that the European Union does not make a deal with the US regarding Greenland territory. In addition, he threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Canadian goods if Canada moves forward with a trade deal with China. As a reason he mentioned that China could use a deal with Canada as a backdoor into the U.S. market. Intel beat fourth-quarter earnings expectations, reporting revenue and adjusted earnings per share above Wall Street forecasts. However, the company’s guidance for the first quarter disappointed investors, with revenue and earnings outlooks coming in below consensus. Shares fell sharply, over 12%, as a result, as markets focused on supply constraints and a cautious near-term outlook rather than the headline beat. The weak forward guidance overshadowed the positive results and sparked the sell-off. As Bloomberg reported, Swiss banking giant UBS Group AG is preparing to offer cryptocurrency investment options for a select group of private banking clients, beginning with Bitcoin and Ether. The initial rollout would start in Switzerland with potential expansion to Asia-Pacific and the U.S. in the future. UBS is currently selecting partners to support trading and custody services but has not finalized its approach. The move reflects growing demand from wealthy clients and a broader shift toward digital assets among major financial institutions. CRYPTO MARKET Last week, a range of fundamental factors shaped investor sentiment. Announcements of additional trade tariffs with Canada and the European Union, along with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, left markets uncertain about potential impacts on both the U.S. and global economy. As a result, markets continued to experience high volatility, while the crypto market again decreased its value. Some analysts have noted that funds are flowing out of the crypto markets and moving into gold and silver considering that gold prices reached levels just below $5,000, while silver reached the $100 mark. Total crypto market capitalisation decreased by 6,7% during the last week, with an outflow of $213B. Daily trading volumes remained relatively flat on a weekly level, moving around $159B. Total market capitalization has increased by 2% since the beginning of this year, with a total inflow of $44B. There has been a general sell-off of crypto coins during the week. Only a rare few managed to end the week in some modest plus. BTC lost the most in nominal terms, with a drop in value of 6,3% w/w and an outflow of $120B. ETH had a higher drop of almost 11% w/w, with an outflow of $44B. All other major altcoins experienced a significant drop. Solana closed the week 12% lower, DOGE, ADA, ZCash dropped by 10% each, DASH lost 14% in value while SUI dropped by more than 17%. The majority of other coins lost between 10% and 16% w/w. On the side of circulating coins, this week Filecoin increased its number of coins on the market by 0,3%, while Cardano had an increase of 0,2%. This week BTC should be mentioned, as the number of its coins on the market increased by 0,1% w/w, same as the majority of other altcoins like XRP, DOGE, Avalanche, DASH, Solana and Algorand. Crypto futures market Bitcoin futures recorded a broad-based sell-off across the entire curve, with weekly declines clustered around 6.5% for most maturities. Near-dated January 2026 futures settled at $89,500, while longer-dated contracts out to December 2027 closed at $100,630. Despite the sharp weekly correction, the term structure remains upward sloping, indicating that longer-dated expectations are still materially higher than front-month pricing. The uniformity of losses across maturities suggests a market-wide de-risking rather than curve-specific pressure. Ether futures underperformed Bitcoin on a relative basis, posting steeper weekly losses of roughly 11% across the curve. January 2026 Ether futures settled at $2,939, while December 2027 closed at $3,390. The sell-off was consistent across maturities, pointing to a broad re-pricing of Ether risk rather than isolated positioning adjustments. Even so, the futures curve remains in contango, reflecting sustained longer-term constructive expectations despite the pronounced short-term downside move. Overall, the week was characterized by synchronized risk-off sentiment across crypto futures markets, with Ether showing higher volatility and downside sensitivity relative to Bitcoin.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: January 18 – 23Last week in the news Political and geopolitical unrest is again shaping market sentiment. Although the US macro data are showing some relative stability, still, uncertainties are making investors stay on hold. The US equity markets pulled back a bit during the week. The S&P 500 lost around 1% for the week, closing it at 6.940. The price of gold reached its newest all-time highest level, but pulled back a bit as of the end of the week, closing at $4.595. The biggest weekly surprise came from 10Y US Treasury yields which broke the 4,2%, which was tested since September 2025. The liquidity is also modestly returning back to the crypto market, where BTC shortly tested the $97K level. The key market-moving development last week was the U.S. Justice Department’s decision to open a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The probe reportedly centres on Powell’s past congressional testimony and a multi-billion-dollar renovation project at the Fed’s Washington headquarters, though critics argue the investigation extends beyond technical or procedural issues. The news raised concerns about political pressure on the Fed and sparked heightened market volatility amid questions over central bank independence. U.S. macroeconomic data released this week were largely centred on inflation. As reported, the December inflation rate stood at 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, in line with market expectations. Core inflation came in at 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y, undershooting forecasts by 0.1 percentage point. Meanwhile, New Home Sales for October declined by 0.1% m/m, sharply below the expected 1.4% increase. The Producer Price Index rose by 0.2% m/m in November, while Retail Sales increased by 0.6% m/m, outperforming the 0.4% estimate. Industrial Production also surprised to the upside in December, rising 0.4% m/m versus expectations of 0.1%. This week Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported strong quarterly results, beating expectations with a record fourth-quarter profit and revenue growth of roughly 25–35% y/y driven by robust demand for advanced chips, particularly for AI and high-performance computing. The company also boosted its capital expenditure outlook for 2026 to over $50 billion, signalling confidence in continued structural demand. The results lifted sentiment across semiconductor stocks and underscored TSMC’s central role in the global AI chip supply chain. Shares of Novo Nordisk jumped sharply after early U.S. prescription data for its newly launched Wegovy obesity pill showed stronger than expected demand, driving the stock up over 5% and to multi month highs. The positive market reaction reflects investor optimism that the oral Wegovy launch could boost sales growth and strengthen Novo’s competitive position in the lucrative obesity drug market. OpenAI struck a massive multiyear chip deal with AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems valued at over $10 billion, securing up to 750 megawatts of low latency AI compute capacity through 2028 to accelerate inference performance across its AI models. The agreement adds to OpenAI’s expanding roster of hardware partners alongside Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom as it diversifies its AI infrastructure supply chain. Markets have taken this as a sign of intensifying competition for AI compute resources and potential shifts in the AI hardware landscape, with implications for major chip stocks. CRYPTO MARKET This week, the cryptocurrency market has seen increasing liquidity, particularly through inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and stablecoins, signalling renewed investor interest. However, many participants remain cautious, keeping a portion of their capital on the sidelines due to lingering uncertainty related mostly to geopolitical risks. Investor sentiment is improving, with indicators like the Crypto Fear & Greed Index moving toward optimism, but confidence is not yet full. External economic factors and occasional negative news continue to temper risk appetite, resulting in measured participation rather than aggressive buying. Overall, the market shows tentative recovery, with liquidity returning but still partially held back by cautious investor behaviour. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 4,7% on a weekly basis, adding $142B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes remained relatively flat, around $140B on a daily basis. Total market capitalization has increased by 9% since the beginning of this year, with a total inflow of $257B. This week will not start with major coins, but with DASH. It was the top performing coin for the week, where, at one moment, the price of DASH surged by more than 200%, but is closing the week with 104% weekly gain. DASH has proved that there is still ongoing investor interest in privacy-focused assets, same as recently seen with ZCash. BTC had a relatively good week, attracting $96B into its market cap and increasing it by 5,3% w/w. ETH also followed the sentiment, with a surge in value of 7,5%, adding $27B to its market cap. Other major coins also had a relatively good week, trading higher between 3% and 9%. XRP remained flat for the week, while Litecoin dropped in value by 7,5%. On the losing side were also Uniswap and Algorand, who decreased in value by more than 1%. Developments on the side of circulating coins also remain increased. This week Filecoin increased its number of coins in circulation by 0,5%, while Solana and IOTA surged by 0,2% w/w. The majority of other coins had a weekly increase of coins on the market by 0,1%. Crypto futures market Bitcoin futures recorded a strong w/w advance across the entire curve, with front-to-long dated maturities rising by roughly 5,7%. The curve remains upward-sloping, and the move higher was broadly parallel, indicating directional strength rather than maturity-specific re-pricing. Longer-dated maturities (2027) continue to trade at a clear premium to the front end, reflecting sustained constructive expectations over the medium to long term. Ether futures outperformed Bitcoin on a relative basis, posting gains of approximately 6.9–7.2% across most maturities. The curve structure remains in contango, with strength evenly distributed along the term structure. Front-end maturities led slightly, suggesting renewed near-term demand alongside continued confidence further out the curve. Overall, this week’s price action points to a broad risk-on sentiment across crypto futures markets, with both Bitcoin and Ether curves exhibiting firm structure and consistent upward re-pricing across maturities.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: January 11 – 17Last week in the news U.S. jobs market data was in the spotlight of markets during the previous week. A mixed data pushed the US equity market toward the higher grounds, where the S & P 500 reached the first all time highest level at the start of the year, at 6.978. The price of gold also reacted to a possibility that the Fed might cut interest rates after relatively weak jobs data, where the price tested once again the $4,5K level. U.S. 10Y Treasury yields are still holding ground around the 4,2%. The crypto market had a short liquidity inflow, however, modestly retraced at the end of the week. BTC is finishing the week around $90K. Last week, U.S. market attention centred on labour data. November JOLTS job openings came in at 7.146 million, below the expected 7.6 million. December Non-farm payrolls rose by 50K, slightly under the 60K forecast, while the unemployment rate declined to 4.4%, down 0.1 percentage point from November’s 4.5%. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% m/m and 3.8% y/y. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment for January was 54.0, modestly above the estimate of 53.5, with inflation expectations unchanged at 4.2%. The relatively weak jobs data increased market expectations that the Fed might further cut interest rates. The arrest of the Venezuelan president Maduro by the U.S. was one of the main topics in the news during the previous week. Oil companies were the ones which significantly gained on the market. President Trump hosted top U.S. oil industry leaders at the White House to press for large-scale private investment in Venezuela's struggling oil sector. He urged companies to commit up to $100B to rebuild the country's dilapidated energy infrastructure. Chevron, which already operates in Venezuela, indicated plans to expand production, but other major companies like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips expressed interest without marks of specific commitments. News is reporting that soaring demand from AI data centres for high-bandwidth memory and related advanced chips is stretching industry capacity, leading to shortages and driving higher prices across DRAM and HBM segments as manufacturers prioritize AI-oriented production. This shift is affecting traditional memory supply for consumer and enterprise devices. Memory makers like Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix are reallocating production toward lucrative AI memory, with Micron's stock showing volatility amid the tightening supply backdrop. President Trump has called for a temporary cap on U.S. credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, beginning January 20th, framing it as a measure to protect consumers from high borrowing costs. He made the announcement on social media, but gave no details on how the cap would be implemented or enforced, and the plan would likely require congressional approval to take effect. The proposal has drawn pushback from banks and financial industry grounds, who warn it could limit access to credit, while critics argue it cannot be enforced without legislation. SoftBank Group and OpenAI are jointly investing a total of $1B in SB Energy to accelerate the build-out of AI data centres and power infrastructure in the US. As part of the deal, OpenAI has also selected SB Energy to construct and operate a 1,2 gigawatt data centre in Milam County, Texas, a key site in the broader drive to meet surging AI compute and energy demand. CRYPTO MARKET During the previous week the crypto market was in a liquidity-on - liquidity-off mode. Although the first half of the week was positive, still the second half brought some withdrawal of funds from this market. Although general sentiment for crypto coins remains positive from the start of this year, still some setbacks are possible, until investors decide to move part of their funds into risky assets. BTC continues to hold the $90K grounds, driving the market cap to the higher grounds. Total crypto market capitalization during the week was increased by 0,5%, where only $16B was added. Daily trading volumes were only modestly increased to the level of $139B on a daily basis, from $120B traded the week before. Although BTC had a modest weekly push toward the $95K, still the coin is ending the week relatively flat compared to the previous week, where only $8B was added to market cap. Relatively the same could be noted for the performance of ETH, who lost some modest 0,6% for the week. The best weekly performer in relative terms was POL (previous MATIC) with a weekly increase in value of incredible 60,5%. It is still not officially published what stands behind such a strong move, however, Polygon CEO announced that he will share the major development on Tuesday, January 13th. On the opposite side were ZCASH and DASH, where ZEC dropped by 26% for the week, while DASH lost 13,3%. BNB and Solana were modest gainers with an increase in value of more than 3%. Other altcoins were also traded in a mixed manner. Increased activity with circulating coins continues. This week, IOTA increased its number of coins on the market by 0,5%, while Uniswaps coins surged by 0,8%. Solana increased its number of coins by 0,2%, the same as Filecoin. The majority of other altcoins had an increase of circulating coins by 0,1%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market showed mixed performance over the week, with Bitcoin futures edging slightly higher while Ether futures moved lower across the curve. The divergence reflects a more selective market environment, as participants reassessed positioning following last week’s rebound. Bitcoin futures posted modest gains of 0.13% to 0.43% w/w. The advance was more pronounced in the longer-dated maturities, with futures from September 2026 through December 2027 rising around 0.42%–0.43%. Front-end maturities saw only marginal increases, indicating limited short-term conviction. Overall, the curve maintained its upward slope, suggesting stable longer-term expectations despite subdued near-term momentum. Ether futures declined across all maturities, posting losses between –1.61% and –2.06%. Weakness was concentrated in the front and mid sections of the curve, while longer-dated maturities showed slightly smaller declines. The pullback followed last week’s strong gains and points to a period of consolidation, with ETH futures giving back part of their recent advance. Overall, futures markets continue to reflect cautious positioning, as participants await clearer catalysts before committing to more decisive trades.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: January 5 – 11Last week in the news The first trading day in the year 2026 showed some cautious optimism. The US equity markets ended the previous year with a modest correction from recent all time highest levels, gaining a modest 0,2% during the first trading day. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6.858. The price of gold also pulled just a little bit back from its ATH, still managing to sustain the $4,3K level. The US Treasuries are weighing on current macro outlook and potential Feds rate cut, testing again on Friday the 4,2% strong resistance level. The new year started positively for the crypto market, where BTC managed to test the $90K resistance on the first day of the new year. Last week was relatively quiet, with holiday trading and few major economic releases. The U.S. Treasury published the FOMC minutes from December, revealing a 25 bps rate cut amid lingering internal divisions. Some officials felt the cut was finely balanced and could have supported holding rates steady, while others highlighted persistent inflation and limited data, partly due to the recent government shutdown, that complicated the outlook. Most policymakers still see room for additional cuts in 2026 if inflation continues to ease, but there is no agreement on timing or magnitude. Some favoured further reductions, while others preferred pausing. Overall, the minutes underscore cautious, data-driven easing rather than an aggressive cutting cycle. This internal divergence and careful guidance may be seen as “unsettling for markets”, reflecting uncertainty over the Fed’s next steps. Warren Buffett officially stepped down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, ending his remarkable 60-year tenure and marking the start of the Greg Abel era as CEO. Buffett will remain chairman, but Abel, a long-time Berkshire executive, now oversees daily operations and major decision-making. Berkshire Hathaway's stock dipped modestly on the first trading day of 2026 as markets reacted to the leadership transition. Investor sentiment showed caution, as Berkshire shares have lagged broader market performance since Buffett first announced his planned retirement last year, with concerns whether Abel can replicate Buffett's legendary capital-allocation success. Tesla reported its Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries of 418,227 vehicles, which was down around 16% y/y and slightly below Wall Street expectations, marking the second consecutive annual drop in deliveries. Factors behind the slowdown included the expiration of the US federal EV tax credit, softer demand in key markets, and intensified competition from Chinese rival BYD overtaking Tesla in global EV sales. Another company of Elon Musk was in the news during the week. Space X is moving ahead with plans to take the company public in 2026, potentially launching one of the largest IPOs in history. News are reporting that the offering could raise more than $30B and target a valuation near $1,5 trillion, which would eclipse the record set by Saudi Aramco listing in 2019. CRYPTO MARKET The year 2025 proved to be exceptionally challenging for the cryptocurrency market. Concerns over geopolitics, regulatory actions, trading hurdles, and an unpredictable macroeconomic landscape led many investors to seek safer havens. As a result, capital flowed out of crypto and into precious metals, with gold and silver experiencing significant gains—particularly during the fourth quarter. However, the first trading day in 2026 showed a potential that these trading actions might be reverted during this year. During Friday, the crypto market saw some positive funds flows where total market capitalization increased by 3,8%, adding $99B to the crypto market. Still, the crypto market ended the previous year with a drop of 9% and outflow of $290B, when compared to the end of 2024. Daily trading volumes remained relatively flat, considering New Year holidays, moving around $120B on a daily basis. Major coins were leading the market on the first trading day, while some altcoins were lagging behind. BTC increased its value by almost 3% w/w adding $51B to its market cap. ETH had a better performance, with an increase in value of more than 6%, and inflow of $21B. XRP was also holding solid grounds, reaching $2,0 in value and adding 8,5% to its market cap. Avalanche had also good performance, with an increase of 8% w/w, Solana was traded higher by 7%, while BNB added 4,2% to its value. SUI had especially good performance, with a surge of 17,5%. On the opposite side was ZCash, which dropped by 2,5% w/w and DASH, whose value decreased by 5,2% w/w. Increased activity continues to dominate coins in circulation. This week BTC increased further the number of its coins on the market by 0,1%, which is rarely seen. SUI had a strong surge in the number of coins with 1,6% increase w/w, Polkadot`s coins surged by 0,6%, while Filecoin increased its number of coins by 0,5%. The majority of other altcoins had an increase in circulating coins by 0,1% w/w. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market moved decisively higher over the week, with both Bitcoin and Ether futures posting solid gains across the curve. The rebound followed several weeks of consolidation and reflected an improvement in short-term sentiment, as buyers returned to the market and risk appetite strengthened. Bitcoin futures advanced between 2.14% and 2.55% w/w. Gains were relatively uniform across maturities, with the January 2026 futures closing at $90,190, while longer-dated maturities continued to trade at a premium, with December 2027 settling at $101,315. The curve maintained its upward slope, indicating stable longer-term expectations, while the measured pace of gains suggests a controlled recovery rather than an aggressive repositioning. Ether futures significantly outperformed Bitcoin, rising between 5.92% and 6.56% across maturities. The strongest gains were concentrated in the front and mid sections of the curve, with February and March 2026 futures each gaining 6.56% on the week. Longer-dated ETH futures also advanced firmly, with December 2027 closing at $3,612, underscoring improved confidence in ETH’s medium- to long-term outlook. Overall, this week’s price action reflects a constructive shift in tone, though the moderate nature of the advance implies that market participants remain selective as they reassess positioning after recent volatility.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: December 29 – January 4Last week in the news The Christmas week brought one non-working day, but no significant changes on the market. Gold and silver are for sure assets which won the year 2025. Gold reached another fresh all time highest level at $4.550, surging by more than 66% during this year. US equity markets used the last trading week in the year to reach some higher levels and book a profitable year. The S&P 500 reached another all time highest level at 6.944. The 10Y US yields are still searching for some catalyst among macro data, testing the level of 4,2% for the last time this year. Still, they are closing the week at 4,13%. The crypto market is certainly one of the assets with the highest correction in value. BTC is still trying to break the $90K, however, the lack of liquidity is keeping the coin in the range between $87K-$88K. During the Christmas week and related holidays, the release of major U.S. macroeconomic data was limited. Durable Goods Orders declined by 2.2% month over month in October. Meanwhile, third-quarter GDP growth surprised markets, coming in at 4.3% q/q versus expectations of 3.3%. Industrial production rose by 0.2% month over month in November, outperforming forecasts of no change, and increased by 2.5% on a year-over-year basis. Nvidia is making a landmark deal valued at around $20 billion to license technology and acquire key assets from AI chip start-up Groq, marking the company’s largest strategic move to date. The agreement gives Nvidia access to Groq’s advanced inference chip designs and brings Groq’s leadership team, including its CEO, into Nvidia’s ranks, while Groq itself will continue operating independently. This move strengthens Nvidia’s position in the rapidly growing AI inference market, complementing its dominance in AI training hardware. The deal also reflects broader tech industry trends of licensing IP and hiring talent rather than traditional acquisitions, potentially easing regulatory concerns. Nvidia’s decision underscores intensifying competition in AI hardware innovation and real-time model processing. Oracle’s share price has slumped about 30% this quarter, putting the stock on track for its worst quarterly performance since 2001 as investor confidence wanes. The drop reflects deepening concerns over the company’s ability to execute its ambitious AI infrastructure build-out, including major capital expenditures and heavy debt to support cloud and data centre expansion tied to deals like the one with OpenAI. Recent quarterly results also showed weaker-than-expected revenue and free cash flow, adding to scepticism about near-term profitability. Wall Street is questioning whether Oracle can deliver on commitments quickly enough to justify the massive spending and maintain its investment-grade credit standing. Analysts and investors are now weighing the long-term potential of Oracle’s AI strategy against the financial risks of its aggressive pivot into cloud infrastructure. China’s cyberspace regulator has released draft rules to tighten oversight of AI services that mimic human personalities and emotionally engage users, opening them for public comment. The proposed regulations would require AI providers to warn users about excessive use, intervene if signs of addiction occur, and implement robust safety, data protection, and algorithm review systems. They also impose content restrictions banning anything that threatens national security, spreads misinformation, or promotes violence or obscenity. The move reflects Beijing’s effort to strengthen safety and ethical standards for consumer-facing AI technologies. CRYPTO MARKET The year 2025 was indeed a highly challenging one for the crypto market. A lot of insecurities regarding geopolitics, government measures, trading challenges and unstable macroeconomic outlook, all made investors turn toward metals this year. The liquidity from the crypto market was turned toward gold and silver, both assets that surged substantially, especially during the Q4 this year. Total crypto market capitalization was additionally decreased by 0,9% during the previous week, with a weekly outflow of $28B. Daily trading volumes were additionally decreased to the level of $122B on a daily basis, from $160B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands in a negative territory of -9%, with a total funds outflow of $303B. Although this was a negative week for the crypto market, still, not all coins finished the week in red. BTC lost -0,7% in value, while ETH dropped by -1,7%. Among other weekly losers are XRP with a drop of -3,8%, DOGE lost -6,8% in value, ADA was traded down by -5,3% and market favourite Solana dropped by -2,4% w/w. At the same time, DASH and ZCash are still holding market attention. ZCash managed to gain 15% in value during this week, while DASH surged by 14,5%. Algorand had a modest increase of 3,5% while Avalanche added 2,3% to its value. Considering coins in circulation, IOTA had the highest increase of coins on the market of 0,5%. Majority of other altcoins had an increase of 0,1%, including ZCash, Solana, DOGE, Filecoin. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market traded modestly lower over the week, with both Bitcoin and Ether futures extending their gradual consolidation phase. Price movements were measured and orderly across the curve, indicating continued caution among market participants rather than renewed downside momentum. Bitcoin futures declined between –0.60% and –1.29% w/w. The December 2025 maturity closed at $86,925, while futures through March 2027 settled at $94,610. Losses were slightly more pronounced at the front end of the curve, with longer-dated maturities showing greater stability. Notably, new long-dated Bitcoin futures maturities for June 2027 and December 2027 were listed for the first time, closing at $96,240 and $99,065, respectively. The introduction of these maturities extends the futures curve further into the future and reflects growing demand for longer-term exposure and hedging opportunities. Ether futures underperformed Bitcoin, declining between –2.26% and –2.84% across maturities. The December 2025 futures closed at $2,913, while March 2027 ended the week at $3,220. Despite the broader weakness, price action remained smooth across the curve, with no signs of dislocation or stress. As with Bitcoin, new Ether futures maturities for June 2027 and December 2027 were listed this week, closing at $3,287 and $3,410, respectively. The extension of the ETH futures curve mirrors that of BTC and suggests sustained institutional interest in managing long-term ETH exposure. Overall, this week’s performance reflects a continued consolidation phase in crypto futures markets. The relatively small magnitude of weekly declines, combined with the successful extension of the curve to later maturities, points to a market that remains cautious in the near term but structurally intact in its longer-term outlook. The stable curve structure and orderly trading across both BTC and ETH futures suggest that investors are maintaining strategic positions while awaiting clearer directional catalysts.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: December 22 – 28Last week in the news Volatility on financial markets continues to be high, despite the forthcoming holiday season and a year-end. The S&P 500 passed through significant correction, however, weaker inflation data from expected draw the index back toward the 6.834 level. The price of gold is still struggling to reach the newest ATH, but the sentiment remains bullish, closing the week at $4.338. US 10Y Treasury yields are mingling on inflation data between 4,1% and 4,2%, still closing the week at 4,15%. This week BTC went through some strong volatility, but still managed to sustain $90K to the upside and $85K to the downside, with a weekly-close level above the $88K. Key U.S. data last week included the November labour market and inflation releases. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64K, slightly above expectations of 50K, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 4.6% from 4.4%. October retail sales were flat, missing expectations for a 0.1% gain. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% m/m and 3.5% y/y in November. Inflation came in below forecasts, with headline CPI at 2.7% y/y and core inflation at 2.6% y/y. The University of Michigan’s final December consumer sentiment index slipped to 52.9 from an expected 53.4, while five-year inflation expectations eased to 3.2% from 3.4%. The ECB meeting was held during the previous week, with no change in interest rates, as expected. With the last ECB rate cut in June, more than six months of unchanged rates signal that only a sharp deterioration in inflation or growth would trigger further cuts. The ECB’s “good place” effectively reflects a neutral policy stance. Moving from neutrality to easing still faces a high bar, as confirmed by President Christine Lagarde. While acknowledging a broadly stable outlook amid uncertainty, she emphasized policy optionality, suggesting that cuts, hikes, or holding rates are all possible—softening earlier suggestions that the next move would necessarily be a hike. As per latest ECB economic projections, the GDP growth rate for 2026 is estimated at 1,4%, with headline inflation of 1,9%. The Bank of Japan increased reference interest rates by 25 basis points, to 0,75%. The BoJ statement reflects rising confidence in sustained inflation, highlighting steady wage growth, limited risk of disruption to wage-setting, and continued moderate increases in wages and prices. At the same time, the BoJ stressed that real rates will remain significantly negative and financial conditions accommodative, supporting growth. While the statement signals further hikes if the outlook holds, their timing and size remain uncertain. The emphasis on deeply negative real rates suggests the BoJ now sees the lower end of the neutral rate above 1%. Oracle drew strong market attention during the week, with shares surging on reports that TikTok and parent ByteDance plan to form a new U.S. entity led by a consortium including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX. The group would hold a majority stake in the proposed “TikTok USDS” joint venture, a move viewed as a strategic win that secures Oracle a high-profile cloud and data security client and reinforces its position in enterprise technology services. CRYPTO MARKET The crypto market experienced significant volatility last week, with Bitcoin swinging sharply between $85K and $90K. Traders cited leveraged positions and position liquidations as key drivers of the intraday swings, rather than pure manipulation. Overall, market moves were driven by profit-taking, leveraged position liquidations, and key support/resistance tests, while broader sentiment remains neutral-to-cautious. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 3% or $90B within the week. Daily trading volumes also decreased to $160B on a daily basis, from $224B traded during the previous week. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands in a negative territory of -9%, with a total funds outflow of $275B. Weekly trading on the crypto market was in a pretty volatile manner. Not all coins finished the week in red, however, big names were driving total market cap to the downside. BTC finished the week 2,2% lower, with an outflow of $40B. ETH was also traded to the downside, closing the week lower by 4,3%. Solana, DOGE, OMG Network and XRP dropped by more than 5%, while Cardano was traded lower by 8,5%. This week Uniswap had one of the best performances with an increase in value of 12%. Monero added 9,6% while ZCash closed the week by almost 6% higher. On the side of circulating coins, LINK had the highest increase of 1,6%. IOTA had an increase of 0,5%, while Filecoin added 0,3% of new coins to the market. XRP should also be mentioned as it increased the number of coins in circulation by 0,4%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market moved lower over the week, with both Bitcoin and Ether futures retreating across all maturities. The decline followed the prior week’s modest recovery and reflects a renewed period of consolidation, as market participants remain cautious amid an uncertain near-term outlook. Bitcoin futures declined between –2.61% and –2.77% w/w. Losses were evenly distributed along the curve, with the December 2025 maturity closing at $88,060 and March 2027 settling at $95,180. The broadly parallel shift lower suggests measured risk reduction rather than aggressive selling pressure. Despite the pullback, the curve retained its upward slope, indicating that longer-term expectations remain relatively stable. Ether futures also moved lower, posting weekly declines ranging from –2.85% to –3.03%. The December 2025 maturity closed at $2,998, while the March 2027 maturity ended the week at $3,296. ETH futures underperformed BTC slightly on a relative basis, reflecting continued sensitivity to short-term sentiment. Nonetheless, price action remained orderly, with no signs of stress along the curve.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: December 15 – 21Last week in the news The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations. US equity markets reacted positively, however, concerns regarding AI-valuation made Friday a red-day, where S&P 500 closed the week at 6.827. Weakening US Dollar supported the price of gold which headed higher, modestly below its ATH, closing the week at $4.299. Notes from some Fed officials over uncertainty whether interest rates should be further lowered, pushed the 10Y US yields higher on Friday, closing the week modestly below the 4,2%. The crypto market aligned with general market volatility, however, BTC managed to hold ground at $90K. As it was highly expected, the Fed decreased interest rates by 25 basis points. The balance of risks and a focus on Fed's dual mandate continues to be at the core of Fed's decisions. As per Fed Chair Powell, the economy is perceived to be expanding at a moderate pace, with evident slowing in the labour market, and an unemployment rate edging up. Inflation continues to be “somewhat elevated”, with risks to the upside. It has been also announced that the Fed will initiate purchases of short-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserve balances. According to the Summary of Economic Projections, the GDP forecasts were modestly upgraded for 2026, with inflation projections still above the 2% target. The course of monetary actions in 2026 for the moment remains unclear, and would depend on data. U.S. markets and crypto investors are watching as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) prepares to raise interest rates to the highest level in about 30 years, signalling a shift away from decades of ultra-low monetary policy. Rising Japanese rates and a stronger yen are seen as potential headwinds for risk assets, including Bitcoin, because they threaten to unwind the long-standing yen carry trade that has supported liquidity for speculative investments. This tightening could put downward pressure on Bitcoin prices even as other central banks, like the Fed, maintain easier policy. Crypto markets are reacting with increased volatility as traders reassess macro risks tied to global rate shifts. There has been a lot of discussion in the news regarding the potential new Fed Chair, after the mandate of current Chair Powell expires in May 2026. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon publicly endorsed former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as a strong candidate to be the next Fed chair. His comments come as President Donald Trump is reportedly considering Warsh along with White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett for the role. Dimon suggested Hassett may be more likely to push for near-term rate cuts, aligning with Trump’s preferences, but emphasized his support for Warsh’s qualifications. Oracle (ORCL) posted its quarterly results on Wednesday, posting a total revenue increase of around 14% y/y, which was slightly below analysts’ expectation. Its revenue from cloud services grew strongly, around 34%, however, it was not enough to offset broader concerns. The company raised its fiscal 2026 capex forecast primarily for AI-focused cloud data centers and GPU capacity expansions. Regardless of relatively solid results, Oracle's stocks fell sharply, as a result of investors concerns whether the AI-facility milestones could be achieved. U.S. regulators have given preliminary approval to several major cryptocurrency firms, including Ripple, Circle, BitGo, Paxos and Fidelity Digital Assets, to establish national trust banks under federal oversight. These conditional charters would allow the companies to manage and hold assets and settle payments nationwide, though they cannot yet accept deposits or make loans, and final approval is still required. The move represents a notable step toward integrating digital-asset businesses into the traditional banking framework. CRYPTO MARKET The crypto market faces pressure from weak liquidity, large leveraged liquidations, and ETF outflows, amid macro concerns. Regardless of the Fed rate cut by another 25 bps, the Bank of Japan is set to lift rates to a 30-year high, strengthening the yen and threatening the carry trade that fuels risk assets. Crypto markets are reacting with heightened volatility as traders reassess global monetary risks, as well as future economic outlook and monetary measures in the US. The crypto market was traded in a mixed manner during the previous week. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by less than 1%, where $21B has been added. Daily trading volumes also remained flat on a weekly level, trading around $224B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands in a negative territory of -6%, with a total funds outflow of $185B. During the week crypto coins had their both red and green days, leaving the total weekly change flat. BTC ended the week flat, while ETH managed to add less than 2% to its total value. ZCash continues to gain market attention, managing this week to increase its value by 27%, and was one of the extremely rare coins with such a strong performance. Monero added 5% w/w to its total value, while DOGE gained 3% w/w, same as Theta. Few coins which finished the week in red were Filecoin, with a drop of more than 10%, Polkadot was down by 5%, same as Tron. This week DASH closed in a red zone, with a drop of 6,2% in value. Increasing activity among circulating coins continues. This week, BTC added new coins to the market by 0,1% w/w. It was also interesting that DOGE increased its number of circulating coins by 3,9%. Solana had an increase of 0,3%, while Avalance, DASH, ZCash and Algorand increased the number of coins by 0,1%. This week Filecoin added 0,3% of new coins. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market edged modestly higher over the week, as both Bitcoin and Ether futures posted small but consistent gains across the curve. The move reflects a period of stabilization following recent consolidation, with price action suggesting cautious re-engagement rather than a decisive shift in sentiment. Bitcoin futures advanced by 0.86% to 0.95% across maturities. Gains were evenly distributed along the curve, with December 2025 closing at $90,440 and longer-dated maturities such as March 2027 settling at $97,730. The parallel nature of the move indicates incremental buying interest rather than aggressive positioning, while the maintained upward slope of the curve continues to point to steady medium-term expectations. Ether futures outperformed Bitcoin on a relative basis, rising between 1.83% and 1.95% w/w. The December 2025 maturity closed at $3,088, while March 2027 settled at $3,398. The consistent gains across maturities suggest improved confidence in ETH, with buyers gradually returning after several weeks of subdued activity. Overall, this week’s performance reflects a constructive but cautious tone in crypto futures markets. The limited magnitude of gains suggests that participants remain selective, awaiting clearer directional signals. Nonetheless, the stability of the curve structure and steady upward adjustments indicate that the market is building a foundation for potential further recovery.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: December 7 – 13Last week in the news September's PCE data was in line with market expectations, which supported investors expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates at December meeting. US equities continued to gain, where the S&P 500 managed to close the week at 6.870. This week gold was not in the spotlight of investors, who are waiting for a correction in gold price in order to continue purchases. Gold closed the week at $4.197. The US Treasury yields reacted to inflation data on Friday, pushing the 10Y yields toward 4,14%. The crypto market continues to lag behind, with BTC struggling to sustain levels around the $90K, but dropping again on Saturday below this level. The key U.S. economic release of the week arrived Friday with the publication of the September PCE data, a particularly important indicator given its timing just ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. The PCE Price Index rose 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y, while core PCE increased 0.2% in September. Personal income climbed 0.4%, and personal spending advanced 0.3%, both broadly in line with expectations. Friday also delivered the University of Michigan’s preliminary December Consumer Sentiment reading of 53.3, slightly above the anticipated 52, while five-year inflation expectations eased to 3.2% from 3.4% previously. Eased inflation figures supported market expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates at December's meeting. Current odds as per CME FedWatch Tool stands at 87%. Netflix has agreed to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s film and TV studios plus the streaming service HBO Max in a deal valuing the business at about $72 billion equity, giving Netflix control over a massive content library including hits and legacy franchises. The deal faces sharp opposition from unions, theatre-owners, and lawmakers, who argue it could reduce competition, hurt jobs, raise prices for consumers, and damage diversity of content. At the same time, according to reports, the White House officials view the merger with “heavy scepticism,” meaning that the administration may not be enthusiastic about its approval Kraken and Deutsche Börse announced a strategic partnership aimed at bridging traditional finance and the digital-asset space by combining Deutsche Börse’s regulated infrastructure with Kraken’s crypto-native platform. In the first phase, Kraken will integrate with Deutsche Börse’s FX platform 360T, giving its clients access to bank-grade foreign-exchange liquidity and improving fiat on/off-ramp capability. Future plans (subject to regulation) include offering regulated crypto trading, tokenized assets, and derivatives (from Eurex) and potentially letting institutions trade spot crypto, tokenized stocks (via xStocks), and crypto derivatives under one roof. News is reporting that OpenAI has declared a “code red,” refocusing the company’s resources solely on improving ChatGPT while pausing development of other projects like advertising, AI agents for health and shopping, and its planned assistant “Pulse.”. This comes as competition intensifies: rival models such as Gemini 3 from Google and offerings from Anthropic have closed the performance gap, threatening OpenAI’s dominance. Analysts warn the company faces three “code red” structural risks: slowing subscription growth despite growing user numbers, rising substitute products, and the burden of huge planned infrastructure investments. CRYPTO MARKET In a CNBC analysis of the BTC recent price moves, the analysts are noting that Bitcoin has dropped nearly 30 % from its record high of about $126,000 in early October, a decline that some analysts see as normal volatility given its historical patterns of large drawdown after big rallies. The sell-off is being driven by weak liquidity, massive liquidations of leveraged positions, and a broader risk-off mood among investors; this has been exacerbated by outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and concerns over macroeconomic factors like interest rates and tightening liquidity. As a result, price action has become choppy, with technical support around the mid-$80,000s being closely watched. A break below could open the door to further downside, while renewed institutional demand or improved liquidity could stabilize or push prices higher. The crypto market is evidently lagging behind the optimism exposed on US equity markets. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 1% during the previous week, with an outflow of $23B. Daily trading volumes remained relatively flat w/w, trading around $219B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands in a negative territory of -6%, with a total funds outflow of $206B. Although the total crypto market lost around 1% during the previous week, not all coins were traded in a negative territory. While BTC lost 1% in value with an outflow of $18,6B, ETH managed to close the week positively, with an increase of 2%, gaining $7,4B in its market cap. Some of the higher weekly losers were ZCash, with a drop in value of 26,6%, DASH was traded down by 15,8%. AVAX lost 6,7%, XRP was traded down by 7,5%, SOL lost around 2% w/w. Few coins which were traded in green were LINK, gaining almost 8% w/w, SUI was traded higher by 5,7%, BNB closed the week by 2,2% higher. Increased activity with circulating coins continues. This week SUI gained 1,3% new coins on the market, Filecoin added 0,3% of coins, while DOGE made an incredible increase of circulating coins by 6,3%. Such a course of action is not frequently seen by DOGE. The majority of other altcoins had an increase of 0,1% of circulating coins. Crypto futures market Crypto futures markets softened this week, reflecting a period of consolidation following recent volatility. Both Bitcoin and Ether futures traded lower across the curve, though the magnitude of the pullback remained moderate compared to prior weeks. Bitcoin futures declined between 1.6% and 2.1% across maturities. The front-end (Dec 2025–Apr 2026) posted slightly smaller weekly losses, ranging from –1.61% to –1.78%, while the mid- to long-dated maturities (June 2026–Mar 2027) saw steeper declines of around - 2.14%. Prices remain in a relatively tight structure, indicating that despite short-term weakness, the curve is not pricing significant long-term deterioration in sentiment. Ether futures were more resilient this week, with changes clustering around the flat to slightly negative range. Front maturities declined modestly by –0.62% to –0.81%, while the mid-curve stabilized, and the longer maturities (Sep 2026–Mar 2027) remained flat on a weekly basis. The Ether curve’s relative stability suggests buyers are stepping in at lower levels, reflecting firmer structural support compared to Bitcoin.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: November 30 – December 6Last week in the news As US macro data started to be released on a regular basis, investors turned their sentiment to a positive side in expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates by another 25 bps in December. The S&P 500 had its five-days positive streak, closing the week at 6.849. The same sentiment also pushed the price of gold toward the higher grounds, where the metal closed the week at $4.230. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark yields were holding around the 4,0% level. The crypto market is lagging behind the risk-off mode on traditional markets. BTC tried to move higher, reaching levels above the $92K, however, closed the week around the $90K. Based on posted US data, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% in September, lifting the annual rate to 2.7%. Core PPI increased 0.1% m/m and 2.6% on a yearly basis. Retail sales edged up 0.1% in September, resulting in a 4.3% yearly increase, though the monthly figure came in slightly below the 0.3% forecast. Relatively weaker data increased investors' sentiment that the Fed might cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December. Current odds, based on CME FedWatch Tool stands at 83%. The price of gold continued to rise this week. A recent survey by Goldman Sachs of over 900 institutional investors found that more than 70% of them are expecting gold prices to rise over the next year. The expectations of 35% participants is that the gold price could surpass $5.000 per ounce by the end of 2026, while 33% expect a range between $4.500 and $5.000. The bullish outlook reflects strong demand from central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and growing investor interest amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Although tech companies in the US were supported by the risk-off mode of investors, still Nvidia was lagging this run. As news is reporting, the Chinese company Baidu is emerging as a major competitor of the American company, after implementing export restrictions. Through its semiconductor unit in Kunlunxin, Baidu unveiled a multi-year roadmap that includes next-gen ships, designed for large scale AI training and inference. Baidu already sells chips to third-party data centre builders and powers its own AI services, which is perceived as a sign that it is positioning itself as a full-stack AI hardware and cloud provider in China. News is reporting that the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) reiterated its strict stance on cryptocurrencies, announcing a renewed crackdown on virtual currency activity, including stablecoins. The PBOC stated that virtual currencies “do not hold the same legal status as fiat currency” and banned their use as legal tender, calling any crypto-related business activity “illegal financial activity”. The rating agency S&P Global downgraded Tethers stablecoin USDT from “constrained” to the lowest possible stability rating, “weak”. The downgrade stems from S&P’s concerns that USDT’s reserves now include a higher share of risky assets, including Bitcoin (about 5.6% of reserves), exceeding the over-collateralization buffer once considered sufficient. In addition, S&P flagged persistent “gaps in disclosure” around reserve valuation, custodians, and counterparty creditworthiness, raising doubts about the reliability of USDT’s backing. CRYPTO MARKET The US stocks reacted positively on an increased sentiment that the Fed might cut interest rates by 25 bps at December FOMC meeting. However, the crypto market is lagging behind the risk-off sentiment, while having only a modest upside correction. Investors are still in the wait-and-see mood, which might be changed in case that the Fed indeed cuts rates two weeks from now. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 7% w/w, adding $196B to its total cap. The market was mostly driven by a surge in BTC value, but also other altcoins contributed. Daily trading volumes decreased this week to $203B on a daily basis, from $313B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands in a negative territory of -6%, with a total funds outflow of $183B. BTC was the leading coin of the week, with a surge of more than 7% adding $122B to total market cap. ETH was following the lead, with an weekly increase of 8,7%, attracting $29B to its cap. XRP also had a good week, with a surge of 13,4%, and an increase in cap of $15,7B. From other leading coins, BNB increased its value by 5,4%, while Solana gained more than 6% w/w. Altcoin with a significant move was Maker, with a surge of 36% w/w, while Monero was traded by 14% higher from the end of the previous week. Stellar also had a good performance with a surge of 11%. On the opposite side was ZCash, with a drop in value of 11,3%, and only a few other altcoins which finished the week in red. Increased activity with circulating coins continues. This week ZCash and Polkadot had a surge in the number of coins on the market by 0,6% each. IOTA increased the number of coins by 0,5% w/w. Filecoin and Stellar had an increase of 0,2%, while the majority of other altcoins increased the number of circulating coins by 0,1% w/w. Crypto futures market After several weeks of persistent declines, the crypto market staged a strong rebound, with both Bitcoin and Ether futures posting broadly higher prices across the entire curve. Bitcoin futures advanced between 7.1%–7.9% w/w, marking a robust recovery following the previous sharp drawdown. The front end of the curve, December 2025 through May 2026, led the move higher, gaining 7.6%–7.9%, indicating renewed demand for short- to medium-term exposure. Long-term maturities also firmed, with Mar 2027 finishing the week at $99,005, up 7.11%. The upward shift in the curve suggests improving expectations for market stabilization and a potential return of directional positioning after recent deleveraging. Ether futures outperformed Bitcoin on a relative basis, rising 10.1%–11.6% across maturities. The strongest gains appeared at the front end, with January 2026 futures climbing 11.60%, followed closely by February 2026 at 11.52%. Although gains moderated slightly beyond mid-2026, the entire curve moved solidly higher, with March 2027 settling at $3,334, up 10.18% w/w. This suggests a sustained recovery in ETH sentiment despite ongoing volatility. Overall, the futures market shows early signs of restoring confidence, with both assets retracing a significant portion of recent losses.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: November 24 – 30Last week in the news The US Government started to work and some macro data were posted during this week. Still, jobs and unemployment data were mixed, not providing much guidance to investors whether the Fed will cut or not in December. At this moment higher concerns are raising a question: are we in the AI-bubble or not? The US equity markets continued with a correction, where the S&P 500 dropped by more than 5% since its ATH, closing the week at 6.602. The price of gold is holding strongly its grounds below the $4.100 level, while the 10Y yields are sticking between 4% and 4,1%. The crypto market continues to suffer high sell-off for the second week in a row. BTC dropped to $80K, but managed to close the week at $84K. The hurting question is whether the correction is over or maybe $75K is waiting to be tested? The first set of U.S. macroeconomic data was released last week following the end of the longest government shutdown in history. Non-farm payrolls for September came in at 119K, well above the market expectation of 50K. The unemployment rate for the month rose to 4.4%, up from the previously reported 4.3%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, aligning with market forecasts. Existing home sales rose by 1.2% in October. On Friday, the University of Michigan’s final Consumer Sentiment reading for November registered at 51.0, while five-year inflation expectations declined to 3.4% from the previously reported 3.9%. The week opened with markets highly focused on Nvidia’s quarterly results, which were posted on Wednesday. Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang highlighted that demand for the company’s chips, particularly its Blackwell GPUs, remains exceptionally strong. Nvidia reported Q3 revenue of $57 billion, a 62% y/y increase. The company also expects strong performance to continue through year-end, projecting $65 billion in revenue for Q4, which exceeds current Wall Street forecasts. Regarding market concerns that tech companies are currently strongly overvalued and that there is an “AI bubble” Huang commented that from Nvidia’s perspective, “something very different” is happening, a strong compute demand is compounding across training and inference. JPMorgan warns that MicroStrategy could be removed from major equity indexes, including MSCI, once the index provider delivers its decision on January 15th, potentially triggering $2.8B in passive fund outflows, and up to $8.8B if other index providers follow suit. The bank argues this index risk, not just Bitcoin volatility, is driving the recent sharp drop in the stock. Eli Lilly has become the first pharmaceutical company to reach a $1 trillion market capitalization, marking a milestone outside the tech sector. The surge is largely fuelled by strong sales of its weight-loss drugs. Investors have responded positively, pushing the stock to record highs and cementing Lilly’s place among the world’s most valuable companies. This achievement highlights the growing influence of innovative healthcare products on market valuations. CRYPTO MARKET Another challenging week for the crypto market. The sell-off continued, where all gains from this year were erased, making November one of the most difficult months in the history of the crypto market. There is no clear reason why this actually happened, but some analysts are pointing to the possibility for MicroStrategy to be excluded from the MSCI index, while others are noting just fear from over-valuation of tech companies. All the major US equity indices are in the correction for the last two weeks, reflecting this fear in investors. Anyway, this is not the first such correction on the crypto market, in which sense, many crypto investors are just sitting aside and waiting for the bottom-buy. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 11% w/w, with a weekly outflow of $342B. Daily trading volumes remained flat on a weekly basis, moving around $313B. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands in a negative territory of -12%, with a total funds outflow of $379B. BTC was leading another market sell-off season. Last week, the coin erased $215B from crypto market cap, and with a drop in value of 11,2%. ETH followed the flow, with a decrease in value of 13,3% or $51B. Almost all coins finished the week in red. Majors were leading in total volume. XRP lost 13.5% w/w with $18B outflow. BNB dropped by 11% or down $14B in market cap. Solana had a relatively smaller drop, compared to other majors, so it was down by $7,7% with an outflow of $6B. Although DASH was a gainer previous week, this week it dropped by 30% in value. ZCash also significantly dropped by 25% w/w. All other coins lost somewhere between 10% and 30% w/w. In line with the general correction on the crypto market, increased activity in circulating coins continues. This week, Solana added 0,9% new coins to the market, Stellar had a surge in the number of coins by 0,4%, while Filecoin added 0,3% of new coins. This week was especially important as the number of BTC coins also increased by 0,1% w/w, which is not frequently seen on the market. Crypto futures market This week brought another wave of broad-based weakness across the cryptocurrency futures market, with both BTC and ETH futures experiencing notable declines. The sell-off was consistent across all maturities, reflecting a continuation of the risk-off sentiment that has dominated the digital asset space and broader financial markets. BTC futures posted declines ranging from -10.03% to -10.49%, with the sharpest weekly losses seen in the mid-2026 maturities. Across the curve, prices moved lower in a nearly parallel fashion, indicating systematic selling pressure rather than maturity-specific positioning. Ether futures saw an even more pronounced decline this week, with losses ranging from -12.72% to -12.90%. Front-end maturities dropped sharply, and longer-dated contracts out to March 2027 followed a similar trajectory. ETH futures are now priced in the $2,700–$3,000 range, marking a significant reset from levels seen earlier this month. The synchronized move across all tenors for both BTC and ETH indicates that the market is undergoing a broad repricing rather than a structural shift. Curve shape remains intact, maintaining its usual upward slope, but the entire structure has shifted meaningfully lower.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: November 10 – 16Last week in the news The U.S. Government shutdown and high AI valuations were at the core of investors interest during the previous week. A lack of U.S. macro data turned investors to revalue historically highest levels of U.S. tech companies. The S&P 500 closed its second corrective week at 6.713. Amid high uncertainties, the price of gold is still strongly holding the $4K level. Although US 10Y yields had a move toward the 4,1%, they still ended the week at 4,0%. The crypto market also had another corrective week, with BTC dropping to $100K. The biannual Financial Stability Report released on Friday highlights policy uncertainty, including issues like central bank independence, trade policy and lack of economic data, as the top financial stability concern (61% of respondents flagged it in a survey). Geopolitical risk is also escalating as a major worry, alongside emerging risks from artificial intelligence, cited by about 30% of contacts as a potential shock in the next 12-18 months. The report noted some stabilization in the commercial real estate market and Treasury market liquidity, but flagged high leverage in hedge funds and other sectors as “notable” risks. The mention of the absence of reliable economic data appears for the first time in a survey, driven by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, underscoring how data gaps themselves are a source of instability. Elon Musk announced that Tesla, Inc. may need to build a “gigantic” chip fabrication facility, a “terafab”, to meet its future AI and robotics demands. Tesla is developing its 5th-generation AI chip (AI5), with limited production slated for 2026 and full scale output in 2027, and a follow-on AI6 expected by mid-2028. Musk revealed that even with the best forecasts from its current suppliers, including TSMC and Samsung Electronics, Tesla’s chip volume needs won’t be fulfilled. Stephen Miran, a Governor at the Federal Reserve, warned that the growing adoption of dollar pegged stablecoins could lead to an increased supply of loanable funds, thereby putting downward pressure on the economy’s neutral interest rate. Miran made the link between stablecoins, increased global demand for U.S. dollar assets (especially Treasury bills), and lower U.S. government borrowing costs. Although he didn’t provide a precise timing for rate changes, he suggested that wide stablecoin use could lead to a prolonged environment of lower policy rates, similar to past periods of high global savings suppressing interest rates. News is reporting that XRP outperformed Bitcoin this week, driven by momentum around spot ETF filings and increasing institutional interest. The filings by entities such as Canary Capital Group for the U.S. listed XRP based ETF and a parallel filing by 21Shares are cited as major catalysts, with new wallet creation and network activity supporting the bullish view. On the other hand, analysts are noting that large BTC holders, referred to as “whales” are increasingly dominating market activity, with on chain data showing their accumulation and influence rising relative to smaller investors. While retail and smaller wallets are reducing exposure, whales are either hoarding or strategically positioning, which has impacted power dynamics in the market. CRYPTO MARKET The crypto market passed through another corrective week. Its further decline was largely driven by a broader retreat in risk assets and growing worries over tighter monetary policy. A hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, coupled with weak macroeconomic data, dampened investor sentiment and curtailed short-term upside momentum. Meanwhile, analysts point out that large Bitcoin holders, or “whales,” are increasingly shaping market activity, with on-chain data showing rising accumulation and influence compared to smaller investors. As retail participants scale back exposure, whales continue to hoard or reposition strategically, shifting the overall balance of market power. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 8% during the previous week, with an outflow of $285B of funds. Daily trading volumes were also modestly increased to the level of $363B, from last week's $229B. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +5%, with a total funds inflow of $157B. Altcoins played a major role on the crypto market during the previous week. Majors were dragging the market to the downside, while several altcoins performed in a quite positive manner. BTC dropped by 7,6% w/w dragging $168B from the crypto market. ETH had a weekly drop of 13% w/w and funds outflow of $61B. XRP was also traded lower by 9,7% for the week, while BNB lost 9,1% in value. Solana had a significant drop in value of more than 15% w/w. On the opposite side was DASH, who continued its winning streak. This week DASH gained 14%, in addition to previous weeks 72%. ZCash continues with a strong surge, gaining this week another 37%. Filecoin also outperformed other altcoins on the market with a weekly gain of 68%. Increased activity continues also with circulating coins. This week Polkadot increased the number of coins on the market by 0,6% while Filecoin coins surged by 0,3%. Stellar, IOTA and Solana increased their circulating coins by 0,2% w/w, while DOGE, Avalanche and DASH number of coins were up by 0,1% w/w each. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market experienced a sharp downturn over the week, as both BTC and ETH futures declined significantly across maturities. The sell-off reflected a renewed wave of risk aversion in the broader crypto space, driven by weaker spot market sentiment and increased volatility toward the end of the week. BTC futures fell around -5.6% w/w, marking the steepest weekly decline since early October. The November 2025 futures closed at $104,030, while the March 2027 maturity settled at $113,065. Despite the notable correction, the curve maintained its upward slope, suggesting that investors continue to anticipate price stabilization and potential recovery over the medium term. The persistence of a positive curve structure, even amid broad declines, points to ongoing confidence in the long-term BTC outlook. ETH futures registered heavier losses, sliding between -10.99% and -11.24% w/w across maturities. The November 2025 futures closed at $3,475, while March 2027 ended the week at $3,846. The sharp retreat erased much of the prior month’s gains and underscored ETH’s higher sensitivity to short-term shifts in sentiment. Overall, the week’s movement highlighted a broad but sentiment-driven correction, rather than a structural change in the longer-term trend. The pronounced weakness in ETH relative to BTC suggests that traders remain cautious, but the enduring upward slope of both futures curves signals that the market still prices in gradual recovery potential once near-term pressures subside.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: November 2 – 8Last week in the news The most important news during the previous week was not that the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but that the Fed is not sure whether rates will be cut in December. The US equity markets were positive during the first half of the week, when the S & P 500 reached another all time highest level for this year. Still, comments on potential no-cut in December made investors pull back, closing the index at 6.840 on Friday. The US 10Y yields also reacted strongly by bringing 10Y yields back toward the 4,1%. The US Dollar is holding relatively steady, while the price of gold retreated a bit, in a quest for a new equilibrium level around the $4K. Amid macro uncertainty, investors are still reluctant to return to the crypto market. BTC was testing the $106K support during the week, but closing it around the $110K. The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.0%, its second cut of the year, citing signs of a cooling labour market and economic uncertainty. Despite the cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that a further cut in December is “far from a foregone conclusion,” signalling internal dissent and caution about the outlook. The Fed also announced it will halt its balance‐sheet “run-off” (quantitative tightening) starting December 1. Chair Powell also emphasised that inflation could remain at higher levels, while at the same time the labour market is showing signs of softening. During the same week the ECB meeting was held, where interest rates on euro were left unchanged, with emphasis on potential risks regarding supply chain disruptions or bottlenecks that could arise from the latest tensions between the EU and China over microchips and rare earth minerals. ECB President Lagarde also mentioned risks of increased inflation coming from the services sector in the EU. “Its in the best interest of America to serve that China market. It's in the best interest of China to have American technology” concluded Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang in an address to reporters at the APEC CEO summit in Gyeongju, South Korea. He dismissed the notion that U.S. export controls on its AI chips sold to China are justified by national security risks, arguing the real issue is lost business for Nvidia. Reported Q3 earnings of Berkshire Hathaway showed an increase in net income of 17% y/y to $30,8B, while operating profit climbed 34%. The company’s cash pile reached a record $381.7 billion, signalling a very cautious capital deployment stance amid market uncertainty. News is reporting that tech firms are ramping up their AI investments, with projected capital expenditures reaching around $600 billion next year at this moment. Analysts are commenting that investors will be closely monitoring this, particularly to see how these CAPEX commitments translate into increased AI-driven revenue for each company. CoinDesk is reporting that ARK Invest has boosted its exposure to crypto related assets to over $2.15 billion across its three ETFs. The firm added roughly $5.3 million in shares of Bullish, bringing its holding in the company to about $114 million. Meanwhile, ARK trimmed stakes in traditional tech names like Palantir Technologies and Shopify to make room for its growing crypto infrastructure weighting. CRYPTO MARKET The Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, but the likelihood of another cut in December remains uncertain. The U.S. government is still in a “shutdown” state, and considering all other uncertainties regarding the economy and Government moves, investors are hesitant to commit to riskier assets. Price action of major crypto coins reflects this caution, as investors prefer to wait for clearer macroeconomic signals and regulatory developments before re-entering the crypto market, suggesting continued volatility with limited near-term upside. Total crypto market capitalization dropped by -1% during the week, decreasing its value by $51B. Almost half of this outflow comes from BTC. Daily trading volumes returned to the “regular” levels of around $229B on a daily basis, from $431B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +14%, with a total funds inflow of $446B. Major crypto coins performed in a negative manner during the week. BTC dropped by 1% w/w, decreasing its market cap by $24B. ETH lost $8,4B or 1,8% in value, while XRP dropped by 4,6% w/w losing $7,4B in market cap. Solana was also down by 3,3%, DOGE by 5,1%, while BNB was traded down by 2,7%. The vast majority of other altcoins were traded either with a small gain or with a small loss on a weekly basis. However, two coins outperformed significantly. ZCash continued with a strong gain in value, surging by an incredible 55,6% for the week. Another coin was DASH with an incredible 72% increase in value for the week, showing that investors are rotating into digital assets emphasizing anonymity and alternative payment infrastructure. There has been an increased activity with circulating coins. The number of BTC coins on the market increased by 0,1%, which is relatively rarely seen. XRP also increased the number of its coins on the market by 0,1%, the same as Stellar, DOGE, IOTA and ZCash. This week Filecoin managed to add 0,7% new coins to the market, while LINK added 2,8%. On the opposite side was Algorand with a drop in circulating coins by 0,2%, while BNB decreased its coins in circulation by 1,0%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market traded slightly lower over the past week, marking a pause after the prior period’s moderate rebound. Both BTC and ETH futures saw marginal declines across maturities, reflecting a more cautious stance among traders as the broader market consolidated recent gains. BTC futures eased around -0.85% w/w, maintaining a stable curve structure. The November 2025 futures closed at $110,320, while the March 2027 maturity ended at $119,750. The small correction suggests limited follow-through selling pressure, as prices continue to hold well within the medium-term range established over the past month. The curve’s gentle upward slope indicates that investors still expect higher BTC valuations over the longer horizon. ETH futures declined between -1.15% and -1.29% w/w, showing slightly weaker performance than BTC. The November 2025 futures closed at $3,909, and the March 2027 maturity settled at $4,321. Despite the week’s mild retreat, ETH futures remained firmly above the $3,900 mark, demonstrating continued stability in investor expectations for the asset’s medium-term outlook. Overall, the week was characterized by low volatility and limited directional conviction, suggesting that both BTC and ETH futures are consolidating after recent fluctuations. The absence of strong downside momentum reinforces the view that current price action represents a temporary pause rather than the start of a broader correction, with the futures curve still pointing to gradual long-term optimism across both coins.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: October 26 – November 1Last week in the news The US September inflation data lifted market expectations on Fed rate cuts at the next FOMC meeting. This also shaped market sentiment, bringing the S&P 500 to its newest all time highest level for this year, at 6.807. At the same time, decreased investors' fears moved the price of gold to short term correction, where gold is closing the week at $4.112. The US Treasuries are gearing up for the forthcoming FOMC meeting, where 10Y benchmark is holding grounds around 4%. This week the crypto market was again left behind, with BTC closing the week modestly above the $111K. U.S. inflation data were in the spotlight last week. Figures released on Friday showed a 0.3% increase in consumer prices for September, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.0%. The monthly figure came in slightly below the 0.4% forecast. Core inflation also showed signs of cooling, rising 0.2% in September and 3.0% year-on-year. Friday’s data release also included the University of Michigan’s final Consumer Sentiment Index for October, which came in at 53.6, below the expected 55.0. Meanwhile, five-year inflation expectations edged up to 3.9%, from 3.7% posted previously. This week, both the ECB and the Federal Reserve will hold policy meetings to discuss potential changes in interest rates. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, October 29th, followed by the ECB meeting on October 30th. Given the easing U.S. inflation and some signs of a softer labour market, investors have increased their expectations for another 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 96% probability of a cut. In contrast, a Reuters survey indicates that market participants do not expect any policy change from the ECB at its upcoming meeting. Amazon’s cloud division, Amazon Web Services (AWS), suffered a major global outage on October 20th, affecting thousands of apps, websites, and services worldwide, including e-commerce. The root cause was traced to internal monitoring/load-balancer issues in the US-EAST-1 data centre region, causing extensive service disruptions. Despite the outage, Amazon’s shares rose around 1.6% on the day, suggesting the market viewed the event as manageable rather than catastrophic. High economic officials from the US and China met in Kuala Lumpur on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit, aiming at paving the way for the upcoming summit between Presidents of both countries, and avoiding a re-escalation of the trade war. Kyrgyzstan has launched a new national stablecoin, KGST, pegged 1:1 to its currency, and has legally recognised its central-bank digital currency (CBDC) ahead of pilot public-sector payments. The country is also building a broader crypto infrastructure, including setting up a national cryptocurrency reserve (which holds assets like BNB), partnering with Binance Academy for university programmes, and collaborating on smart-contract development. CRYPTO MARKET Investors' fear is slowly fading on financial markets, but the crypto market was a bit left behind the traditional ones. As investors weighed US September inflation, it increased their prospectus that the Fed might cut interest rates next week. The US equity markets gained, while the crypto market is still holding with only modest weekly gains, still waiting to regain their previous valuations. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 4% during the week, adding $157B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes were again increased, to the level of $431B on a daily basis, from previous weeks $295B. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +15%, with a total funds inflow of $497B. Major crypto coins participated with 70% in the total crypto market capitalization increase during the previous week. BTC managed to regain some of its strength, adding $95B to its market cap, increasing it by almost 4,5%. ETH had a smaller gain of 2,3% w/w, adding $10B to the market cap. However, this week the shining coin was XRP, with a significant increase in value of 12,6% and a gain of $17,7B in market cap. Solana was also traded higher by 5,7%, while BNB gained 2,7% w/w. ZCash continues to be in the spotlight of the crypto market. This week ZEC closed the week by 30% higher from the end of the previous week. There has been a modest activity with coins in circulation. This week Solana added 0,5% new coins to the market. IOTA had an increase of circulating coins by 0,7%, while DASH, Stellar, XRP and ZEC increased the number of coins in circulation by 0,1% w/w. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market rebounded modestly over the past week, as both BTC and ETH futures advanced across maturities. The recovery followed two consecutive weeks of declines, indicating that sentiment has stabilized and buyers have cautiously re-entered the market. Gains were broad-based but measured, suggesting that traders remain selective amid a still-fragile macro backdrop. BTC futures rose between 3.60% and 3.81% w/w, marking the first positive week since late September. The October 2025 futures closed at $110,740, while the March 2027 maturity ended at $120,815. The curve retained its characteristic upward slope, signalling that investors continue to anticipate firmer prices over the medium term. The moderate rebound, following a steep decline in prior weeks, suggests that confidence is gradually returning, although momentum remains contained. ETH futures posted a smaller but steady recovery, gaining between 2.43% and 2.59% w/w. The October 2025 futures closed at $3,934, while March 2027 settled at $4,375. The move kept ETH comfortably above the $3,900 threshold. Overall, the week’s performance points to a short-term recovery phase in crypto futures, supported by the market’s resilience in holding key technical levels. While caution still prevails, the consistent upward slope of both BTC and ETH futures curves continues to indicate longer-term optimism among market participants.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: October 20 - 26Last week in the news Fear was a predominant sentiment on financial markets during the previous week. The price of gold is clearly pointing to this for the last nine weeks. Gold reached another all time highest level on Friday at $4.380, but swiftly reverted back toward the $4.250K. The US equity markets were traded in a mixed manner. The S&P 500 managed to add 0,53% on Friday, but generally closed another red week. The crypto market was marked by another sell-off during the week, with BTC managing to close the week around the $107K level. US Treasuries were holding relatively steady, with a 10Y testing the 4,0% level. The US Government continues to be in the status of “shutdown” in which sense, there is still lacking major economic data on the US economy. The US President posted on social media on Friday that the 100% tariffs on imports from China is not sustainable, improving a bit of market sentiment. The Fed Chair Powell was a speaker at the National Association of Business Economists (NABE), noting that the weakening job market is pointing to a need for another rate cut. This news was also positively perceived by markets. Financial markets are sounding alarm bells over the increasing exposure of U.S. banks to risky borrowers, particularly through loans extended to non-depository financial institutions (NDFIs) such as sub-prime lenders, private credit firms and other “shadow” financial vehicles. The fear is that what is currently viewed as isolated defaults could evolve into a broader spill-over effect, where losses at NDFIs ripple back to banks, triggering funding stress, tighter credit conditions, and perhaps wider systemic instability. This alarm was raised after Zions bank announced that it has press allegations to one of its NDFI customers due to false documentation. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon added fuel with a simple comment “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more”. Apple has concluded a five-year exclusive U.S. media rights agreement with Formula 1, starting in 2026, under which Apple TV will become the sole U.S. broadcaster of all F1 races, including practice sessions, qualifying, sprint events and Grand Prix. The deal is reportedly worth around US$140 million per year which is significantly higher than the previous deal held by ESPN. S&P Global delivered a surprise downgrade of France’s long-term credit rating on Friday, cutting it from AA⁻ / A-1+ to A⁺ / A-1. The move reflects growing skepticism over the French government’s ability to maintain fiscal discipline amid political turbulence. The agency underscored that recent instability, including a suspended pension reform and two no-confidence votes against Prime Minister Lécuronu, deepens uncertainty around France’s budget trajectory. S&P warned that this uncertainty could weigh on investment, consumer spending, and economic growth. CRYPTO MARKET Another week on the crypto market ended in red. Fear is the dominant feeling among investors, which is shaping their appetite for risk assets. There are a lot of uncertainties which were additionally heated by the news over a new potential banking crisis due to lending to NDFIs. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 4% as of the end of the week, decreasing its value level by $132B. This week daily trading volumes returned to relatively usual ones, around $295B, which was a significant decrease from $986B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +11%, with a total funds inflow of $340B. BTC was the coin which led to a total crypto market cap decrease. As of the end of the week BTC lost $103B in value or 4,65% w/w. On the other hand, ETH was holding relatively stable, constantly trying to hold to the $4K level. Still, ETH is ending the week at a modest plus of 1,3%. During the previous period ZCash had a strong growth, however, during the previous week the value of this coin dropped by 26,3% w/w. Avalanche was traded down by 11,5%, BNB lost 7,8%, Filecoin dropped by 10%. There were a few coins which managed to end the week in green. Among them are Maker, who gained 12,6% w/w, OMG Network was traded higher by 11,7%, Theta was up by 7,6%. Increased activity continues with coins in circulation. Filecoin traditionally is increasing its number of coins on the market, however, this week FILs number of coins dropped by 0,3%. On the opposite side was Avalanche, which increased its number of coins on the market by 1,0%. ADA, DOGE, BNB, SOL and ZCash increased their number of circulating coins by 0,1% each. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market extended its decline over the past week, as both BTC and ETH futures posted broad-based losses across maturities. The correction followed continued risk aversion in the spot market, though the pace of decline moderated compared to the previous week’s sharp sell-off. BTC futures retreated between -8.64% and -8.82% w/w, reflecting another week of downside pressure across the curve. The October 2025 futures closed at $106,675, while the March 2027 maturity ended at $116,430. The curve remained upward-sloping, suggesting that despite current weakness, investors continue to price in a gradual recovery in the medium to longer term. However, the consistent losses across maturities indicate that near-term sentiment remains cautious. ETH futures also moved lower, though with smaller declines compared to BTC, falling between -4.24% and -4.34% w/w. The October 2025 futures closed at $3,837, while March 2027 settled at $4,270. The fact that ETH futures continue to hold above the $3,800–$4,000 range reflects a measure of resilience, as traders maintain confidence in ETH’s relative strength despite the broader market softness. While the overall tone remains defensive, the more moderate losses in ETH and the persistent upward slope of both BTC and ETH curves suggest that futures markets still view the recent downturn as a corrective phase rather than a fundamental shift in trend direction.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: October 13 - 19Last week in the news Tariffs 2.0 are again moving markets to the negative territory. Investors weighed how much negative impact they could impose on the U.S. economy and on Friday's trading session closed the S&P 500 2,71% lower. A massive selloff was also triggered on the crypto market, where the majority of altcoins lost even 70%-90% in value within only a few hours. BTC shortly dropped to the level of $105K, but ended the week above the $112K. The U.S. Treasury benchmark yields dropped to the level of 4,0%. The only asset which continues to benefit from market uncertainty is the price of gold, which for one more time reached the all-time highest level at $4.050. The U.S. Government continues to be in the state of “shutdown” for more than 10 days now, so there are still no releases of important U.S. macro data. However, the announcements on social networks from the U.S. President continue to shake markets. In Tariffs 2.0, started on Friday, he announced a potential 100% tariffs on imports from China. This was the moment when the significant sell off started of the US equities, while investors were weighing how much impact a 100% tariffs could have on the US economy. Tech companies were the ones hit the most negatively. The story regarding Berkshire Hathaway selling US stocks and stockpiling cash was catching market attention during this year. Its founder Warren Buffet recently noted that he is ready to invest and is investing into Japanese stock. During the previous week, CNBC posted news that Berkshire Hathaway's investments in Japan's five major trading houses—Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo—have surpassed $30 billion, reflecting Warren Buffett's long-term commitment to these diversified conglomerates. These holdings have become Berkshire's largest non-U.S. equity positions, with a combined market value of $23.5 billion at the end of 2024.Buffett has praised the trading houses for their shareholder-friendly policies and capital deployment strategies. He has also implemented a currency-neutral strategy by issuing yen-denominated bonds to hedge against exchange rate fluctuations. Berkshire's annual dividend income from these investments is projected to be around $812 million. Despite some fluctuations in share prices, these investments align with Buffett's preference for long-term, value-oriented opportunities in stable, diversified businesses. Apple is reportedly nearing an agreement to acquire Prompt AI, an artificial intelligence start-up specializing in talent management technology. This move aligns with Apple's broader strategy to bolster its AI capabilities, as CEO Tim Cook has expressed openness to acquisitions that accelerate the company's AI roadmap. The acquisition would enhance Apple's AI infrastructure, complementing its previous integrations such as the partnership with Alibaba to introduce AI features in iPhones sold in China. CRYPTO MARKET Tough week for the crypto market. The third largest selloff occurred on Friday. News are reporting that in the largest crypto liquidation event to date, over 1,000 wallets on Hyperliquid were completely wiped out, and 6,300 others are now in the red, with 205 losing more than $1 million each. Triggered by President Trump's announcement of additional tariffs on Chinese imports, the sell-off erased over $1.23 billion in trader capital on Hyperliquid and $19 billion across the broader crypto market within 24 hours. The majority of liquidations were long positions, highlighting the market's bullish sentiment prior to the downturn. Similar situation is also with other crypto exchanges. It was a massive, completely unexpected event. Total crypto market capitalization is closing the week 10% lower from the end of the previous week, with an outflow of $398B. Daily trading volumes were more than doubled as of the end of the week, trading around $986B on Friday, while the week before was closed with total turnover of $386B. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +15%, with a total funds inflow of $472B. The week of extremes led to a significant drop in value of the majority of coins. BTC lost almost 8% w/w, with total funds outflow of $194B. ETH lost more, with a drop in value of 14,3% and funds outflow of 77%. All major altcoins were also on a losing side. Just to mention some like Solana, with a drop of 19%, XRP was down by 16%, ADA dropped by 22%, DOGE decreased its value by more than 22%. Interestingly, ZCash continued to significantly gain in strength, second week in a row, adding additional 73% to its value. DASH was another rare coin, which managed to gain 34% on a weekly basis. For some reason, BNB managed to stay intact during this selloff, actually increasing its value by 2,6% on a weekly basis. There has also been significantly increased activity with coins in circulation. BTC increased its numbers of coins on the market by 0,1% w/w or 10.000 coins. Solana also added 0,2% new coins to the market, while Filecoin increased its circulating coins by 1,2% this week. DASH, Stellar and ZCash added 0,1% new coins to the market. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market softened over the week, though the correction remained relatively moderate compared to the sharp sell-off that struck the spot market on Friday. Both BTC and ETH futures declined along the curve but retained levels that continue to signal underlying confidence in longer-term valuations. BTC futures fell between -5,08% and -5,4% w/w, with the largest losses observed in futures maturing through late 2025. The October futures closed at $116.990, while March 2027 at $127.635. Despite the pullback, prices remained comfortably above recent support levels, and the curve preserved its gradual upward slope. The relative stability in longer-dated maturities suggests that traders continue to anticipate higher BTC valuations over the medium term one. ETH futures experienced a steeper adjustment, declining between -11,7% and -12% w/w across maturities. The October 2025 futures ended the week at $4.007, while March 2027 closed at $4.460. Even with the broader market weakness, ETH futures continued to trade above the psychologically important $4K mark, underscoring resilience in expectations for the coin's longer-term trajectory. As a conclusion to recent developments on the crypto spot market, it should be noted that while the Friday spot market sell-off was both sudden and stronger than anticipated, futures prices did not fully mirror the decline. This divergence indicates that market participants may view the move as temporary rather than structural, maintaining confidence that current weakness could prove to be a short-lived phase within the broader recovery trend.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: October 6 - 12Last week in the news Despite the federal government “shutdown” delaying key economic data, equity investors pushed markets higher, seemingly focusing more on earnings and tech optimism than macro news. The S&P 500 reached the new all-time highest level at 6.750, despite some pullback on week-end. The government shutdown increased demand for both real and alternative safe-haven assets, in which sense gold reached new highest levels at $3.894, while the price of BTC was also pushed toward levels above the $123K. The US Treasury yields are waging a potential Fed rate cut in October, closing the week at 4,11%. The most important macro indicators, NFP and Unemployment data for September have not been posted during the week, due to the US government “shutdown”. The event was triggered by Congress’s failure to pass a funding bill. Over 800,000 workers were left unpaid, and many agencies scaled back operations. With no agreement so far, the shutdown continues and there’s currently no announced date for when Congress will pass the funding bill. The value of Palantir fell around 7,5% during the previous week after an internal U.S. Army memo flagged “fundamental security” flaws in a battlefield communications system. The memo states the system lacks proper access controls, logging, and verification of software integrity, and that third-party applications integrated into it carry severe vulnerabilities. Palantir disputed the claims, saying the issues were addressed and that no vulnerabilities were found in its core platform; they argued the memo reflected an outdated snapshot of the project. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, speaking at Italian Tech Week in Turin, Italy, warned that a market pullback is likely ahead, probably within the period of next two years. He noted that current valuations appear stretched and urged investors to prepare for increased volatility. Despite the recent rally in equities, Solomon expressed doubts about its long-term sustainability. His comments reflect broader concerns about overheated markets and rising downside risks. Quantum computing is becoming a key focus for investors as companies like Rigetti Computing and D-Wave gain attention for their advances in quantum hardware and algorithms. The technology promises transformative potential across sectors—from finance to materials science—and is seen as a frontier for long-term growth. Investors are closely watching which firms will emerge as leaders in the race to build scalable, fault-tolerant quantum systems. As the hype evolves into practical breakthroughs, market sentiment could shift rapidly around these quantum names. Robinhood has begun listing Strategy’s Bitcoin-backed preferred shares, including STRC, opening up new structured yield products for retail investors. These instruments aim to offer monthly dividends with varying risk profiles, bridging traditional finance and crypto investment. Walmart-backed fintech OnePay plans to let users buy, hold, and convert Bitcoin and Ether in its finance app by year-end. The crypto features will be powered by infrastructure from Zerohash, aligning OnePay with platforms like Venmo, Cash App, and PayPal. CRYPTO MARKET The crypto market saw strong momentum last week, shaped by weaker private-sector jobs data and ongoing political uncertainty from the U.S. government shutdown, both of which fueled appetite for risk assets. Analysts noted that recent gains across digital assets appear to be driven by genuine institutional inflows and long-term holder accumulation, rather than speculative leverage. Overall, crypto markets reflected increased confidence in the sector's resilience during uncertain macroeconomic conditions. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 10% for the week, adding total $373B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes increased during the week to the level of $350B on a daily basis, from $320B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +27%, with a total funds inflow of $870B. Major coins surged strongly during the week, however, the absolute winner of the week was ZCash. This coin surged by an incredible 200% in one moment, however, ending the week with an increased price of 156% w/w. Such a strong demand for this coin was impacted by a launch of a ZCash Trust for accredited investors by Grayscale fund, framing ZEC as a privacy-focused Bitcoin analog. The rising demand for privacy in the face of surveillance and CBDC discussions pushed renewed attention to ZCash's zero-knowledge proof technology. Back to majors - BTC and ETH performed extremely well during the week, where both had a surge of more than 11%. BTC attracted $246B of fresh funds flow, while ETH gained $54B. Solana managed to add 12% to its value, while BNB gained 17.8% w/w. DASH was another coin with great performance of +43% during the week. Almost all altcoins mark a green week. Considering circulating coins, Solana, Stellar and Filecoins increased the number of their coins on the market by 0,3% each, during the week. Algorand, XRP, DASH and DOGE increased their coins by 0,1% w/w. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market advanced strongly over the week, as both BTC and ETH futures posted consistent gains across the curve. Sentiment among traders turned more constructive, supported by renewed demand for longer-dated contracts. BTC futures rose between 11,6% and 12,63% w/w, with the sharpest gains concentrated in the near-term maturities. Contracts maturing in October 2025 led the advance, closing at $123.635. Prices followed a steadily upward trajectory along the curve, reaching $134.470 for March 2027. This marked the highest level ever recorded for BTC futures, underscoring the growing confidence in longer-term instruments. ETH futures also posted broad-based increases, rising between 11,95% and 12,26% across maturities. October 2025 closed the week at $4.553, while March 2027 settled at $5.054. Despite the solid performance, ETH futures did not reach new highs, with the peak of $5.347 still standing from August this year. The curve nonetheless retained its upward slope, pointing to sustained expectations of gradual recovery.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: September 29 – October 7Last week in the news U.S. PCE data for August were in the spotlight of investors interest during the previous week, which shaped investors sentiment and trading decisions. The US equity markets modestly corrected, where S&P 500 touched the lowest level at 6.565, however ended the week at 6.643. The price of gold reached another all time highest level at $3.790, but eased till the end of the week to $3.760. The US yields also reacted to PCE data, with a move toward the 4,18% level. The crypto market had a corrective week, where BTC dipped down toward levels below the $110K. The key U.S. economic release of the week was the August PCE Price Index, which rose 0.3% month-over-month, bringing the annual rate to 2.7%, in line with market expectations. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, slowed to 0.2% for the month and 2.9% y/y. Personal income rose by 0.4%, while personal spending increased by 0.6% in August. In addition, the final Q2 GDP growth rate came in at 3.8%, beating expectations of 3.3% and reflecting strong economic momentum. As per CME Fed WatchTool investors are continuing to perceive two more rate cuts till the end of this year. The US President Trump proposed a 100% tariff on imported pharmaceuticals effective October 1, but allowed exemptions for companies that had begun building U.S. manufacturing plants. The tariff does not apply to companies that are actively building US drug manufacturing plants. The rationale is to incentivize onshoring of pharmaceutical production and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains. Several European pharma firms, like Novo Nordisk, Roche, and Novartis, saw stock declines, as investors weighed how exposed they would be to the tariff. News is reporting that Chinese stocks have posted strong gains this year, fueled largely by renewed foreign and domestic investor interest in tech, AI, and innovation sectors. Analysts highlight the market’s momentum being driven by policies supporting chip development, optimism over regulation, and favorable valuations that are attracting capital. Foreign investment flows into Chinese equities have increased, while domestic investors are reallocating toward secular growth themes over property or stimulus plays. Still, concerns remain over narrow market breadth, lofty valuations, and whether the rally can sustain itself amid global uncertainty. The U.S. government is reportedly considering a mandate that would force semiconductor companies to produce as many chips domestically as they import, a 1:1 production-to-import ratio, to reduce reliance on foreign supply. Under this plan, firms that fail to meet the ratio over time could face tariffs (possibly up to 100 %). To ease the transition, companies that pledge to build domestic capacity would receive credits, allowing them to import while new plants are constructed. The proposal is part of a broader push to reshore chip manufacturing, though critics note the complexity and cost involved in aligning global supply chains under such a rule. CRYPTO MARKET As per news reports, it seems that large investors decided to offload part of their crypto holdings during the previous week. The offload was followed with higher level of liquidations of leveraged position, which added to total crypto market capitalization decreased during the previous week of 6%, or $251B. However, analysts are noting that this drop should not be perceived as negative development, but a necessary catalyst for future move toward the upside. Daily trading volumes increased during the week to the level of $326B on a daily basis, from $241B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +23%, with a total funds inflow of $748B. It was a correction week for the majority of crypto coins. The largest coin, BTC lost 5,5% in value or $128B in funds outflow. ETH also went through a correction of 10,2% on a weekly basis, signalling investors caution in the altcoin market. From other major coins, XRP finished the week 6,7% lower from the week before, while market favorite Solana, was traded lower by around 15% from the end of the previous week. BNB went through a week relatively solid with a minor drop in value of 2,7% w/w. Most other leading coins such as Cardano, DOGE, Polkadot or Uniswap suffered double-digit losses, underscoring a broadly bearish week across the crypto sector. On the opposite side, ZCash should be especially mentioned, as this coin managed to increase its value by 10%, which was indeed a rarity during the previous week. When it comes to circulating coins, increased activity was also evident in this field. Polkadot managed to increase the number of coins on the market by 0,6%, while Filecoins added by 0,3% new coins to the market. The majority of other altcoins added around 0,1% of new coins to circulation. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market experienced a turbulent week, reflecting the broader correction that swept across the spot market. Both BTC and ETH futures posted consistent declines across all maturities, underscoring cautious sentiment among traders and institutional investors. BTC futures fell between 4,78% and 5,5% w/w, with contracts maturing in January 2026 leading the decline. Prices still followed an upward trajectory along the curve, beginning with $109.195 for September 2025, climbing to $119.875 for March 2027. This week marked the first time March 2027 futures were traded, signalling growing demand for longer-term instruments despite short-term weakness. ETH futures registered steeper losses of 9,2% to 11,2%. Regardless of negative developments on the spot market, ETH futures managed to hold above the $4K mark. December 2026 closed the week at $4.428, while first time trading March 2027 closed the week at $5.502. Despite the consistent declines, ETH futures exhibited an upward-sloping curve, highlighting expectations of gradual recovery over the long run.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: September 21 – 27Last week in the news The first Fed rate cut this year occurred during the previous week. The FOMC meeting was the most important event which was closely watched by investors and also with high sentiment. The Fed fulfilled market expectations, and cut interest rates by 25 basis points. This move was highly welcomed by markets. The S&P 500 reached a new all time highest level at 6.665 points. The price of spot gold also had its move toward fresh new historically highest levels at $3.705, following the weakening of the US Dollar. Although the 10Y US benchmark yields reached their lowest level at 4.0%, still they bounced back after the Fed`s decision, toward 4.14% driven by stronger GDP forecasts, slightly higher inflation, and concerns over growing government debt issuance. The crypto market was relatively steady during the week, with BTC holding strongly above the $116K. The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point cut to its key interest rate, the first reduction this year. In a press conference after the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed the decision and its broader implications. He acknowledged that President Trump's tariffs are starting to raise some prices, though their full impact on inflation and economic activity remains uncertain. Powell also noted that the tight U.S. labour market is more affected by slowing immigration than by trade policies. Regarding housing, he suggested the rate cut is unlikely to significantly shift the market. While he described the move as modest, saying it likely won’t make a huge difference to the economy, Powell emphasized that the Fed is “not on a pre-set path”, leaving future cuts dependent on evolving data. Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel, acquiring about 4% of the company and triggering a strategic partnership to jointly develop custom chips for data centers and PCs. Intel’s shares jumped around 30% on the news, marking their biggest single day gain since 1987. Under the deal, Intel will build Nvidia-custom x86 CPUs and integrate Nvidia’s GPU chiplets into system-on-chips for PCs, while also employing Nvidia’s NVLink technology to better connect their architectures. Analysts say this could be a turning point for Intel, boosting investor confidence and helping strengthen its competitive position in the AI and high-performance computing sectors. Once a leader in e-commerce, Alibaba is now leaning heavily into artificial intelligence, rolling out a multibillion dollar AI transformation with investments of more than $3,3 billion in AI technology. The company believes that its future growth will depend more on data, automation, and algorithmic efficiency than on its traditional online retail business. This overhaul reflects shifting strategy under pressure from slowing sales growth and intensified competition. Alibaba hopes that embracing AI will help it streamline operations, find new revenue streams, and stay relevant in China’s hypercompetitive tech landscape. CRYPTO MARKET As investors switched their focus to the FOMC meeting and Feds rate cut during the previous week, the crypto market was a bit left behind investors focus. The total crypto market capitalization decreased by a modest 1%, with an outflow of $55B. It could be concluded that the crypto market remained flat during the week. Daily trading volumes were also modestly decreased to the level of $241B, from $298B previously traded. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +23%, with a total funds inflow of $748B. BTC closed the week flat compared to the week before, still moving around the $116K level. The majority of altcoins went into a short price correction. ETH had a weekly drop of 5,3%, with funds outflow of $30,6B. Among higher weekly losers were Uniswap, with a drop in value of 11%, Algorand was traded down by 9% and Filecoin dropped by 7,2%. Among market favorites, Solana had a modest drop in value of 1,9%, while DOGE surprisingly lost 12,5% in value. XRP and Litecoin had a modest drop of 5%. On the opposite side was BNB who managed to increase its value by 6,4% w/w, while Monero was traded higher by 3,9%. Avalanche should be mentioned as the coin surged by 9,1% during the week. There has been modestly increased activity with coins in circulation. This is the second week in a row that IOTA is increasing the number of circulating coins by 0,7%, this week. Filecoin traditionally surging is circulating coins, this week by 0,4%. XRP was also one of the coins which increased its number of coins on the market by 0,3%. Crypto futures market Despite the increasing interest of investors for ETH and its futures, during the previous week ETH futures entered into a short correction of around 5% for all maturities. Contracts maturing in December this year closed the week at $4.541 and December 2026 at $4.895, falling short of the previously reported levels above the $5K mark. BTC futures also experienced a decline of around 1,5% w/w. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at $117.495, and those maturing a year later were last traded at $124.630. The latest future data points to a cooling off in short term momentum for both BTC and ETH futures, despite sustained institutional interest, as markets react to macroeconomic shifts and Fed policy signals.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: September 15 – 21Markets are gearing up for the forthcoming FOMC meeting and surging expectations over a 25 basis points rate cut. These expectations have been priced during the week, where the S&P 500 reached a fresh, new all time highest level, ending the week at 6.584. On the same expectations the price of gold surged to another all time highest level, closing the week at $3.643. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark dropped below the 4,0% at one moment, however, returned a bit back as of the end of the week at 4,068%. This time the crypto market was also in the eye of the investors, where BTC managed to break the $115K resistance, ending the week modestly below the $116K. The previous week started with the annual revision of non-farm payrolls, revealing a decline of 911,000 jobs, adding to concerns about a cooling U.S. labour market. In August, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.1% month-over-month, bringing the annual rate to 2.6%, while core PPI also dropped 0.1%. Both figures came in below market expectations of a 0.3% increase. Meanwhile, inflation rose 0.4% for the month and 2.9% year-over-year, with core inflation slightly elevated at 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually. Preliminary data from the University of Michigan showed September’s consumer sentiment at 51.8, slightly below the forecast of 54.9, while inflation expectations held steady at 4.8%. Declining jobs market increased market expectations to almost certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17th. Nvidia and OpenAI are reportedly in talks to fund a multibillion dollar AI infrastructure project in the U.K., centred on building new data centres, in partnership with cloud firm Nscale. The agreement is expected to be unveiled during President Trump’s state visit to Britain next week. Governments globally are increasingly trying to attract the tech giants to bolster their domestic “sovereign AI” capabilities. Gemini Space Station shares surged over 40% on Friday during their debut on the Nasdaq, opening at $37.01 under the ticker GEMI after being priced at $28, and reaching a high of $40.71. Founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, the company was valued at $4.4 billion and joins a growing wave of crypto firms going public amid a loosening regulatory environment under current US Administration. News are reporting that investors have poured over $7 trillion into cash-like assets such as money market funds and high-yield savings, benefiting from recent Fed rate hikes. However, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates soon, these safe assets may lose appeal, prompting a shift toward riskier investments like stocks and bonds. Experts warn that a massive market rally fuelled by this "wall of cash" is unlikely unless rates drop close to zero. Historical data shows significant outflows from money funds only occur during major economic crises when rates are very low. CRYPTO MARKET A green week on the crypto market, supported by investors' expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates at their FOMC meeting, on September 17th. Almost all coins gained on this expectation surging the value of crypto coins mostly between 10% to 20%. At the same time total crypto capitalization passed the $4B mark, which represents another significant milestone for the crypto market. On a weekly level, total crypto market capitalization was increased by 8%, adding total $290B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes remained at higher levels, with turnovers of around $298B on a daily level. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +25%, with a total funds inflow of $803B. BTC was the coin to lead the market, however, other altcoins also performed well during the week. BTC gained $115B of funds, increasing its value by 5,2% for the week. ETH had a good week with a gain of 10,3%, adding $53B to its market cap. XRP gained almost 13% w/w, adding $21,5B to its value. Solana and Polkadot are worth mentioning, as both coins gained above 20% for the week. Certainly, the star of the week was DOGE, with an incredible weekly gain of 41%. Ospreys Dogecoin ETF started trading during the previous week, attracting investors' funds and letting the coin surge by 41%. Increased activity was also reflected in circulating coins. During the previous week, EOS increased the number of its coins on the market by 0,6%, while Algorand gained 0,5% of coins. Stellar managed to add 0,3% new coins to the market, same as Uniswap. Crypto futures market Investors' increased interest in ETH was recently exposed both on the spot and the crypto futures market. As per CME, the ETH futures open interest on this market has hit records of over $10B, as a reflection of institutional investors demand. ETH futures gained more than 7% during the previous week for all maturities. Futures expiring in December this year closed the week at $4.792, and those with the expiration date a year later were last traded at $5.143. This is a huge milestone as the long term futures returned once again to levels above the $5K mark. BTC futures also gained more than 4,5% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at $119.565, and those maturing a year later closed the week at $126.490.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: September 8 – 14Last week in the news The previous week was marked with surprisingly low August Non-farm payrolls of only 22K new jobs in the U.S. Figures increased market expectations that the Fed will cut rates at the FOMC meeting in September. Market reaction at Friday's trading session was strong. The S&P 500 reached another all time highest level and then tumbled back toward the 6.481, within the same day. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark dropped down from 4,2% to 4,0%. Although the US Dollar remained relatively flat during the week, the price of gold reached a new all time highest level, ending the week at $3.586. This week the crypto market was left aside, with BTC closing the week by testing the $110K. U.S. labour market data took centre stage in the markets last week. On Wednesday, the JOLTs Job Openings report showed 7.181 million positions for July, falling short of the expected 7.3 million. Friday delivered another surprise, with August Non-Farm Payrolls revealing just 22K new jobs, which was well below the 75K anticipated by the market. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% in August, marking a 3.7% y/y increase. A significant drop in the US jobs data increased market expectations that the Fed will now certainly have a good grounds to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at September FOMC meeting. Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz cautions that bond markets haven’t fully accounted for the weakening U.S. fiscal outlook, particularly the temporary boost from tariff revenues that won't last as businesses readjust supply chains. He suggests that the current projections are overly optimistic and that the true financial position of the U.S. may be significantly worse. Stiglitz’s remarks signal that investors should brace for deeper fiscal and inflationary risks than markets currently anticipate There has been a lot of media coverage related to the announced split of shares of Kraft Hainz, aimed to unlock brand value. Shares of the company were losing value during the year, with a stock loss of around 21% over the period of the past year. Famous investor Warren Buffett commented on the split, expressing disappointment, noting that breaking up will not resolve the deeper challenges the company is facing. The proposed spin-off will create two distinct, independently traded entities, one centered on sauces and spreads, the other on grocery staples, a strategy aimed at unlocking shareholder value after years of sluggish performance. The European Commission has levied a €2.95 B (US $3.45 B) antitrust fine against Google for abusing its dominance in the adtech market by favouring its own services, marking the company’s fourth major EU penalty. Regulators have given Google 60 days to propose remedies to end these self-preferencing practices, warning that failure to comply could lead to divestitures. Google has announced plans to appeal the decision, calling it unjustified and warning it could harm numerous European businesses. Meanwhile, the U.S. President has criticized the penalty and threatened retaliatory trade measures, escalating tensions between the U.S. and the EU. CRYPTO MARKET The crypto market remained relatively calm during the previous week. Investors were more concerned with surprisingly weak US jobs data, increasing expectations that the Fed might make a move in rate cuts at their September FOMC meeting. They were positioning accordingly, in which sense US equities, bond and gold markets were affected. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by modest 1% during the week, adding $28B to its total market cap. Daily trading volumes dropped to the level of $222B on a daily basis, from last week's $311B. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +16%, with a total funds inflow of $513B. For the week, crypto coins showed mixed performance, with a blend of gains and losses across major and altcoins. BTC had steady movements, with a weekly gain of 1,4% and an inflow of $30,5B. This week, ETH was a modest losing side of -1,4% (-7,5B). Major altcoins on the market finished the week relatively flat. Market favorites Solana, ADA, XRP, BNB all finished the week almost without a change from the end of the previous week. Avalanche managed to add 3,3% to its market value. At the same time, Maker had an excellent week with a gain of 13,1%. Monero was traded higher by 4,4% and Filecoin was up by 2,7%. Another coin with a significant weekly gain was ZCash, with a surge of 11,3%. Although the value of coins remained relatively flat, there has been increased activity with circulating coins. This week Stellar managed to add 1,1% new coins to the market. Miota`s number of coins closed the week higher by 0,8%. This week Filecoins added 0,2% to its total circulating coins. XRP should be also mentioned, as this coin continues to increase its number on the market, this week by 0,2%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market showed some divergence from BTC and ETH price movements, following developments on the spot market. Bitcoin futures experienced consistent gains across all maturities, with w/w increases ranging around 2,7%. Futures with maturity in December this year closed the week at $114.205, and those maturing a year later were last traded at $121.000. In contrast, ETH futures saw moderate declines across the board, with w/w changes around 0,4%. For the moment, the market is showing subdued expectations for ETH in the near to mid-term. However, ETH futures continue to hold strongly above the $4K mark. December 2025 finished the week at $4.435, while December 2026 was last traded at $4.780.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: August 31 – September 4Last week in the news The market sentiment during the previous week was driven by PCE data. As the inflation was in line with expectations, the sentiment about Fed rate cut was further supported. The US equity markets continued to surge, with the S&P 500 reaching the new all-time highest level at 6.500 and closing the week at 6.460. In expectation of rate cuts, the price of gold surged, closing the week at $3.446. The US 10Y continued to test the 4,2% supporting level, ending the week at 4,23. The sentiment around the BTC and the crypto market was not in a positive territory, where BTC slipped down to the levels below the $109K. July’s PCE inflation report came in right on target to market forecast, with headline PCE up 0.2% month-over-month and core PCE up 0.3%, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The revised second estimate for Q2 U.S. GDP showed stronger-than-expected growth at 3.3% annualized, up from the initial 3.0%, fuelled largely by increased consumer spending and business investment. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there's now an approximately 87% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at next month’s FOMC meeting, all of which supports market optimism ahead of upcoming labour data. The week ahead is bringing the release of non-farm payrolls and JOLTs. The Federal Reserve’s ongoing quantitative tightening has entered a more uncertain phase as usage of its overnight reverse repo facility, once a $2.6 trillion liquidity buffer,has plunged to just $32 billion, signaling that this tool is nearly exhausted. With the reverse repo effectively drained, further balance sheet reductions will increasingly come directly from bank reserves, currently around $3.3 trillion, raising the risk of strains in short-term funding markets. To mitigate this risk and maintain control over interest rate policy, the Fed is relying on its Standing Repo Facility (SRF) as a contingency for future liquidity support. However, analysts remain cautious, warning that the Fed must tread carefully to avoid a repeat of the 2019 episodic funding stress. A federal appeals court ruled 7–4 that most of former President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), are unlawful, finding that the law does not explicitly authorize tariffs, a power reserved for Congress. Nonetheless, the court has allowed the tariffs to remain in effect until mid-October to permit time for appeal, likely setting the stage for a potential U.S. Supreme Court review. The US President responded by denouncing the court’s decision and signalling his intent to pursue the case further. El Salvador will redistribute its entire national Bitcoin reserve—valued at approximately $682 million from a single address into multiple new wallet addresses to enhance security and reduce exposure. Each address will hold no more than 500 BTC (around $54 million), a strategic limit designed to minimize risk in the event of a security breach. To maintain transparency, the country’s National Bitcoin Office will launch a public dashboard displaying the total holdings across all addresses. CRYPTO MARKET Bitcoin dropped to around $108K last week due to a combination of technical sell signals, large “whale” liquidations, and ETF outflows, which also triggered margin call liquidations. This decline reflected a broader pullback across the cryptocurrency market, despite ongoing institutional interest. Notably, a major investor reportedly sold about 24,000 BTC, sparking forced liquidations that accelerated the price drop. Due to general crypto market correction, the total crypto market capitalization dropped by 6% for the week, with an outflow of $217B. Daily trading volumes were modestly decreased to the level of $311B on a daily basis, from $468B traded the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +15%, with a total funds inflow of $485B. Over the past week, major crypto coins experienced mostly negative performance. Bitcoin fell sharply to the levels below $109K, with total value decrease of 5,5% and funds outflow of $127,5B. ETH continues to trade above the $4K, still, with a weekly decrease in value of 8,5% and funds outflow of $48B. Other prominent coins such as XRP (-7,1%), Litecoin (-8,2%) and BNB (-2,6%) also posted losses. Market favorite Solana managed to sustain the $200 level, with a relatively small weekly loss of 1,5%. The majority of altcoins finished the week with a single-digit loss. Among rare coins which finished the week in positive territory were POL (previous Matic) with a weekly gain of 2%, and DASH with a plus of 1%. With respect to coins in circulation, the week was surprisingly calm, with only a few changes. BNB decreased the number of its coins on the market by -0,1%. On the other side were coins like Stellar, DASH, Solana or Filecoin which increased their circulating coins by 0,1%. Crypto futures market Crypto futures expressed broader weakness, similar to the spot market. BTC futures experienced a week-on-week decline of around 7,5% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at $110.985, and those maturing a year later were last traded at $117.505. Despite the price drop, the BTC futures curve remains upward sloping, suggesting that while near-term sentiment is bearish, traders still expect higher prices in the long term. A similar situation is with ETH futures, which were traded lower by more than 10% on a weekly basis. The steepest drop occurred for maturities in August 2025 which were traded down by 11,3%. December 2025 closed the week at $4.458, and December 2026 was last traded at $4.800. The structure of the futures curve indicates that there is still long-term bullish positioning priced into the market.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: August 24 – 29Last week in the news Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole Symposium brought a significant shift in market sentiment on Friday. Markets welcomed the information regarding a potential rate cut in the coming period. The US equity markets were the major weekly gainers, where S&P 500 added 1,52% on Friday, closing the week in a plus of 0,3% at the level of 6.466. The US Dollar lost in value on the news, pushing the price of gold 0,98% higher, and close $3.371. The 10Y US benchmark yields also strongly reacted, easing to the level of 4,25%. Among weekly gainers was also BTC, which tested the resistance at $117K. In his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell took a balanced tone, acknowledging progress in bringing inflation down while emphasizing the need for continued vigilance. He noted that inflation has eased from its peak but remains above the Fed's 2% target. Powell indicated that the Fed is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed, suggesting that if inflation continues to decline sustainably, a rate cut could be considered in the near future. However, he also stressed that the Fed will act cautiously, monitoring economic data closely to avoid reigniting inflation. Overall, his remarks signaled a potential shift toward monetary easing, but with a clear message that the path forward depends on continued improvement in inflation dynamics. The U.S. government will acquire a 9.9% equity stake in Intel for $8.9 billion by converting previously awarded CHIPS Act grants and Secure Enclave program funds into non-voting common stock. This passive investment does not grant the government any board or governance rights, though it includes a five-year warrant to potentially purchase an additional 5% if Intel’s foundry ownership drops below 51%. The agreement follows tensions between President Trump and Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, but industry observers suggest this move aims to bolster U.S. semiconductor manufacturing and national technological leadership. The U.S. and EU have introduced more specifics on their updated trade framework, with clear 15 percent tariffs set for pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber, and automobiles, offering some clarity to already imposed tariffs. However, many businesses remain wary—uncertainties around customs rules, enforcement, and the deal’s long-term reliability continue to create unease. Apple is reportedly in early talks with Google to use Google's Gemini AI model to power a revamped version of Siri, sparking investor optimism. Following the news, Alphabet’s stock climbed approximately 4%, while Apple’s stock also gained around 2%. According to UBS Weekly Intelligence, the biggest tech spenders (based on combined capex and R&D intensity relative to sales) are Meta, Intel, and Oracle, while the lightest spenders include Mastercard, Uber, and Accenture. Other notable names include Microsoft (36 %), Amazon (31 %), Alphabet (35 %), and Apple (11 %) — a useful gauge of how tech firms are prioritizing investment amid the AI-driven market environment. CRYPTO MARKET Crypto assets surged after Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole remarks hinted at an interest rate cut as soon as next month, fuelling renewed risk-on sentiment. Bitcoin rallied back above $117K from below $112K, while crypto-linked stocks like MicroStrategy and Coinbase gained around 5–7%. Altcoins such as Ether and Solana also climbed sharply. Ether gained 15% on Friday, surpassing the $4,8K level. Regardless of Friday's higher push toward the higher grounds, the total crypto market capitalization remained relatively flat on a weekly level. By managing to cover weekly losses, the crypto market cap gained quite modest $9B in total cap during the week. At the same time, daily trading volumes were significantly increased to the level of $468B on a daily basis, from $312B traded the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +22%, with a total funds inflow of $702B. The previous week was significant for ETH, since this coin attracted the majority of investors attention and also funds. ETH ended the week by 7% higher from the week before, adding more than $37B to its market cap. ETH also managed to reach ATH at the level of $4.877. BTC is closing this week by 2,13% lower from the week before, after dropping during Saturday trading to the level of $115K. Other altcoins were traded in a mixed manner, with either small gains, or small weekly losses. Among higher gainers were LINK, with an increase in market cap of 14.5%, ZCash had a very good week, with a gain of 16%, while market favorite Solana was last traded higher by 7,5% w/w. This week Maker closed with a higher drop in value of 7,3%. Regarding circulating coins, the situation was also a bit mixed. On one side was Polkadot, with a weekly increase of circulating coins by 0,6%. On the opposite side was Filecoin, with a decrease in the number of coins on the market by 0,6%. This sort of action is indeed rarely seen, when Filecoins is in question. ADA was another coin with an increase in circulating coins by 0,3%. BTC should be especially mentioned, as its circulating supply was increased by 0,1% w/w. Crypto futures market While BTC futures saw a week of softening prices, ETH futures rallied significantly, reflecting diverging market sentiment between the two leading crypto currencies. BTC futures experienced moderate decline across all maturities, with the largest weekly drop in March 2026 of -2,08% and June 2026 of 1,93%. The weekly price changes indicate a slightly firmer long-term sentiment, as December 2026 closed the week at $126.795 and December this year dropped by 0,9% at the level of $119.845. In contrast, ETH futures showed strong bullish momentum, with weekly gains of around 10% across all maturities. The highest rise was in October 2025 of 10,3%, suggesting a robust market outlook for ETH in both the short and long term. At the same time ETH futures maturing in December 2026 reached their all time highest level at $5.347, while December 2025 was closed at $4.994.
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by XBTFX